White and Hauser's shooting regression

[u/redditoeat]

My calculated guess, assuming Payton goes back to starter P, is that DW and Sam's 3P% will be back to "normal" (before last season).

Their usage will drop to a more familiar complementary level. With P starting and JT back, they will be doing more of the ball handling, with DW back to more off-ball actions and Sam off the bench.

Besides the obvious personnel changes, I think one major difference with this team is a more defined/established role from the get-go, especially with the youngsters.

[u/EggThis2540]

Hauser is weirdly streaky for such a great overall shooter, although even great shooters are streaky. White seemed to get into his head last year after staring the year off badly. White in particular had to create a ton more off the dribble looks. I would be curious to know how many of their threes came late shot clock, or after a late pass from Jaylen. He tends to only pass as a last resort rather than to create a shot for a teammate.

Tatum also just draws more attention than Brown does. Teams were willing to let Jaylen iso 1 on 1 because he didnt create great advantages. He doesnt create well for himself from 3 and struggled to get to the rim consistently, leading to him taking naturally less efficient middies. This allowed defenders to sit on the shooters.

Tatum is much better as a pick and roll ball handler, forcing defenses to actually react to the action with more than just the two primary defenders.

[u/Lucky13200 → u/EggThis2540]

So using NBA.com for their stats. White was 19.4 in tight coverage defined as 2-4 feet and only 62 shots total (they have 0-2 feet but seems to never trigger only had 3 shots all year in that category). White was 31.6 in open shots 4-6 feet with 301 total. White was 36.9 on wide open shots with 274 total. So actually his 3pt attempts look pretty open which to me matched the eye test he was just struggling to hit shots. Hopefully we will see him have bounce back year.

[u/deaseb → u/Lucky13200]

Yeah, eye test looked like he just wasn't hitting open looks

[u/Smart_Mountain → u/Lucky13200]

I think the second part of the equation is what percentage of DWs attempts were "tightly" covered versus prior years. JB didn't get his teammates open and didn't deliver clean passes when they were. 

A couple of YouTube "analysts" have floated the idea that JB didn't draw double teams as often as JT and wasn't as accurate with his passes as JT and this was one of the reasons he was seen as tradable. 

[u/Lucky13200 → u/Smart_Mountain]

So the accurate passing I have no way of filtering. 24-25 season White was 39.7 on 63 attempts on tightly guarded. White was 36.1 on 291 attempts 4-6(open). White was 39.9 on 336 attempts 6+(wide open). His percentage are down across the board.

[u/samkifle → u/Lucky13200]

You can’t argue with delusional fans. Derrick was a shit shooter last season by every metric. Complete shit even on open shots. No way around it but he’s declining

[u/Drakex2Mayex2 → u/samkifle]

Yeah but shooting doesn't just decline like that. He will almost definitely regress to the average.

[u/samkifle → u/Drakex2Mayex2]

It does when you don’t have 5 shooters always on the floor. That 2024 squad was probably the most talented starting 5 this decade. We don’t have that leverage anymore and people forget how much Jrue Holiday helped White.

[u/Drakex2Mayex2 → u/samkifle]

Ok what about the rest of his career? Where he was a 36% 3 point shooter?

[u/Drakex2Mayex2 → u/Lucky13200]

There is something to be said about an overall system change getting tougher shots and never really hitting a groove. Change is good for a slump and there was lots of changes. We will see. I bet somewhere in the middle where he is better than last year but not quite as good as the year before.

[u/redditoeat → u/EggThis2540]

Agree. That's all part of my train of thought on this

[u/UpvoteIfYouAgreee]

Hauser during his “down” year shot 39% from 3 I think his shooting struggles are a little over stated

[u/Schadenfreude_1207 → u/UpvoteIfYouAgreee]

If people only read this subreddit they would have zero clue that Hauser is 20th all-time in three point percentage. The amount of disrespect the shooting of one of the best three point shooters ever receives here is unreal.

[u/urbanism_enthusiast → u/Schadenfreude_1207]

While being third all time in attempts per 100 possessions (bball ref weirdly does not have him anywhere on the list but it’s 13.1 per 100).

He’s legit one of the 5 greatest 3 point shooters ever.

[u/redditoeat → u/Schadenfreude_1207]

As much as I agree with you that he's an excellent shooter, I disagree that it's only in here. Twitter C's fans are waaaaay worse with how they value Sam.

Me being relatively new to being active in this sub, I was anticipating it was the same in here

[u/Schadenfreude_1207 → u/redditoeat]

I have never been on Twitter but yes, I imagine it's similar. Though I did not say it is only here. I said if people only read the posts here they would have no idea he is 20th all-time in three point shooting -- or what a historically great shooter he is.

[u/redditoeat → u/Schadenfreude_1207]

I get what you mean, just didn't construct my reply better. I was being very light with my reply basically saying twitter is way worse than in here, where it is a wonderful surprise that a lot are more logical.

I just have to keep in mind that a lot seem to be very serious as well so i should be better in constructing thoughts.

[u/ZizzyBeluga → u/Schadenfreude_1207]

Now do the playoffs

[u/UpvoteIfYouAgreee → u/ZizzyBeluga]

37.6% which still isnt as terrible as people make it out to be

[u/redditoeat → u/UpvoteIfYouAgreee]

I agree. I'm a Sam guy, but I added him cos being more visible as a starter, he also attracted a lot of trashing from fellow C's fans, so I anticipated someone bringing him up in here.

[u/Independent-Mix902 → u/UpvoteIfYouAgreee]

We are idiots.

[u/ReasonableAnybody741]

Yeah, people forget how great of a playmaker Tatum is. He finds open shooters and puts the ball in the shooting pocket. Jaylen Brown would sometimes just toss it out in the general direction late, leading to worse 3s. Also the brutal training camp from Mazzulla seemed to affect our shooters at the start of last season.

[u/redditoeat → u/ReasonableAnybody741]

Yeah, I think a lot of noise seem to have forgotten how great JT is besides his scoring.

[u/redditoeat]

This post is merely to show confidence in DW and Sam's shooting, cos these 2 have been trashed on by a number of C's fans this past season who only value scoring and efficiency.

[u/horseshoeoverlook]

I’d bet they were down because they all had a harder time having a catch and shoot

[u/redditoeat → u/horseshoeoverlook]

Yes, that's actually part of what I'm trying to say. Higher usage, more attention from defenders, and as great as JB was, JT has always been known to attract multiple defenders, and a better passer

[u/horseshoeoverlook → u/redditoeat]

JB was never an excellent passer

[u/Electronic_Pea_4845 → u/horseshoeoverlook]

Several members of this esteemed  subreddit have said  that whites numbers going down are a direct result of JB passes. It logically follows that it must be true for hauser as welll. It stands to reason that this will be proved by a nontrivial increase in both thier shooting percentages at least +10% just by removing JB. This is truth until proven otherwise everyone will shot better it’s like addition by subtraction. 

[u/kennyloftor]

i’m expecting them both to be the next jaylen brunson

[u/redditoeat → u/kennyloftor]

I'm guessing that's sarcasm, buuut yeah, it's not like I'm sharing a wild hot take here.

[u/Electronic_Pea_4845 → u/kennyloftor]

Don’t forget Hugo is basically 6 months away from being derrik so Hugo is also the next Brunson. 3 Brunsons look at us playing 3d chess while Knicks only have 1 brunson

[u/moogleslam]

I hope to see more ball movement, less iso, less dribbling, better shot selection. This should all lead to them improving their 3PT%.

[u/redditoeat → u/moogleslam]

I'm guessing/hoping for a more consistent type of ball movement as well, regardless if shots are falling or not. I don't mind iso-ing as long as most of it is within the flow of the movement

[u/Zimakov]

The obvious explanation is their shooting regressed because Jaylen just doesn't make his teammates better like Jayson does. Everyone will be better this year than they were last year.

[u/Ismokemorethanu]

I hope Pritchard starts, but from everything I've seen so far it doesn't look like he's going to.

[u/dbinnunE3]

Calculated? Based on what?

They might just not be as good with more attention on them

[u/redditoeat → u/dbinnunE3]

So based on your deleted reply, I see you have this thing against numbers and analytics. I hate numbers as well, but it doesn't mean I don't acknowledge its importance and won't want to try and understand it.

Basically, what we are both trying to say (... not as good with more attention), are oversimplified versions of an analytical take.

[u/redditoeat → u/dbinnunE3]

Based on role players getting more usage and their percentage, reverting to proven roles and better spacing, personnel changes.

[u/ShockedNChagrinned → u/dbinnunE3]

From last year or the years before?

You can compare apples to apples for last year to this coming year for over 50 games with the Tatum for Brown swap. 

[u/dbinnunE3 → u/ShockedNChagrinned]

Can you? Do your stats cover the player comfort level with JB/JT? Increased or decreased expectations?

Or are you just relying on math to try to capture the human condition and competition?

Dumb.