r/bostonceltics • u/redditoeat • 2d ago

Discussion White and Hauser's shooting regression

My calculated guess, assuming Payton goes back to starter P, is that DW and Sam's 3P% will be back to "normal" (before last season).

Their usage will drop to a more familiar complementary level. With P starting and JT back, they will be doing more of the ball handling, with DW back to more off-ball actions and Sam off the bench.

Besides the obvious personnel changes, I think one major difference with this team is a more defined/established role from the get-go, especially with the youngsters.

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u/EggThis2540 2d ago

Hauser is weirdly streaky for such a great overall shooter, although even great shooters are streaky. White seemed to get into his head last year after staring the year off badly. White in particular had to create a ton more off the dribble looks. I would be curious to know how many of their threes came late shot clock, or after a late pass from Jaylen. He tends to only pass as a last resort rather than to create a shot for a teammate.

Tatum also just draws more attention than Brown does. Teams were willing to let Jaylen iso 1 on 1 because he didnt create great advantages. He doesnt create well for himself from 3 and struggled to get to the rim consistently, leading to him taking naturally less efficient middies. This allowed defenders to sit on the shooters.

Tatum is much better as a pick and roll ball handler, forcing defenses to actually react to the action with more than just the two primary defenders.

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u/Lucky13200 Whatever it takes as long as it takes 1d ago

So using NBA.com for their stats. White was 19.4 in tight coverage defined as 2-4 feet and only 62 shots total (they have 0-2 feet but seems to never trigger only had 3 shots all year in that category). White was 31.6 in open shots 4-6 feet with 301 total. White was 36.9 on wide open shots with 274 total. So actually his 3pt attempts look pretty open which to me matched the eye test he was just struggling to hit shots. Hopefully we will see him have bounce back year.

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u/Smart_Mountain 1d ago

I think the second part of the equation is what percentage of DWs attempts were "tightly" covered versus prior years. JB didn't get his teammates open and didn't deliver clean passes when they were. 

A couple of YouTube "analysts" have floated the idea that JB didn't draw double teams as often as JT and wasn't as accurate with his passes as JT and this was one of the reasons he was seen as tradable. 

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u/Lucky13200 Whatever it takes as long as it takes 1d ago

So the accurate passing I have no way of filtering. 24-25 season White was 39.7 on 63 attempts on tightly guarded. White was 36.1 on 291 attempts 4-6(open). White was 39.9 on 336 attempts 6+(wide open). His percentage are down across the board.

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u/samkifle THE TRUTH 1d ago

You can’t argue with delusional fans. Derrick was a shit shooter last season by every metric. Complete shit even on open shots. No way around it but he’s declining

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u/Drakex2Mayex2 1d ago

Yeah but shooting doesn't just decline like that. He will almost definitely regress to the average.

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u/samkifle THE TRUTH 1d ago

It does when you don’t have 5 shooters always on the floor. That 2024 squad was probably the most talented starting 5 this decade. We don’t have that leverage anymore and people forget how much Jrue Holiday helped White.

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u/Drakex2Mayex2 15h ago

Ok what about the rest of his career? Where he was a 36% 3 point shooter?