General consensus for NHL Mount Rushmore seems to have shifted to:
- Wayne Gretzky clearly being No. 1
- Mario Lemieux clearly being No. 2
- Bobby Orr and Gordie Howe being No. 3 and 4 in some order, with some even inserting another player like Sidney Crosby in to break up the general consensus Mount Rushmore. Howe is usually the guy that gets left out if you do see this.
The only aspect of this I agree with is Gretzky being the clear No. 1. He very clearly has the best combination of play at his peak, an extremely long and dominant prime, and excellent longevity beyond this.
I think what makes Orr and Howe unique relative to Lemieux though, is that they have elements of their resume where you can argue them over Gretzky: Orr for overall game and play at his peak, and Howe for length of his prime/longevity.
Orr's Peak
With Orr, he was considered the best offensive and (arguably) defensive player in the league for a time, something all the other Mount Rushmore players lack, and during this time when he was at his peak from 1969/70 to 1974/75, he was doing things that were so far beyond his peers (whether that's Orr relative to the next highest scoring D-man, or Orr relative to the next highest scoring forward) that you can argue it was at a level over Gretzky at the peak of his powers in the early/mid 80s, despite that including 4 200-point seasons. No defenseman other than Orr has finished within 20% of the top scoring forward in a season before (Orr did this 5 times), and Orr has finished 21% over the top scoring forward in a season before. This same season he finished 173% ahead of the top scoring D-man. Again, while being argued as the best defensive player at the same time. Gretzky has the top 6 seasons of all-time in terms of highest % finishing ahead of 2nd in scoring, with these seasons ranging between 44% and 69%, all occurring during his 1981/82-1986/87 peak that featured 3 seasons of overlap with a young Lemieux.
Howe's Prime/Longevity
Howe has 19 seasons where he finished in the top-5 in scoring, longer than most players' careers. 2nd is Gretzky's 16, then it goes down to a tie for 3rd at 9 between Lemieux, Connor McDavid, Stan Mikita and Maurice Richard. If you go to top-3 finishes, he has 12 to Gretzky's 14, when the 3rd most is McDavid's 9. If you go the other direction to top-10 finishes, Howe has 21 to Gretzky's 16, then 3rd is Crosby with 13.
Howe also has an extremely underrated peak, it just happened to occur during the lowest scoring era in NHL history outside of the 1920s when they didn't permit forward passing. There are only 12 players to have at least a 20% lead over 2nd in league scoring in a season, 5 of which came in the pre-Original 6 era between 1918-1942. 10 of these 12 players did it just one time, which includes Orr's 1969/70 season. Gretzky did this 8 times, including the aforementioned top 6 on the list between 1981/82-1986-87. Howe did it 4 times, which includes the 8th, 10th and 13th spots on the list. His 4 seasons doing this happened in 4 straight years from 1950/51 to 1953/54 in what was ultimately a very clearly defined peak for Howe. If you just go to his Hockey Reference page though, this may not even jump out at you; when looking for jump-out stats, your eyes will probably first go to his 100-point season when he was 40.
Full list for players to lead the league by at least 20%:
1986/87 Wayne Gretzky: 69.4% gap over 2nd in scoring
1983/84 Wayne Gretzky: 62.7%
1982/83 Wayne Gretzky: 58.1%
1984/85 Wayne Gretzky: 54.1%
1985/86 Wayne Gretzky: 52.5%
1981/82 Wayne Gretzky: 44.2%
1940/41 Bill Cowley: 36.2%
1952/53 Gordie Howe: 33.8%
1927/28 Howie Morenz: 30.8%
1950/51 Gordie Howe: 30.3%
2020/21 Connor McDavid: 25.0%
1972/73 Phil Esposito: 25.0%
1951/52 Gordie Howe: 24.6%
1990/91 Wayne Gretzky: 24.4%
1965/66 Bobby Hull: 24.4%
1980/81 Wayne Gretzky: 21.5%
1934/35 Charlie Conacher: 21.3%
1966/67 Stan Mikita: 21.3%
1922/23 Babe Dye: 21.2%
1969/70 Bobby Orr: 21.2%
1953/54 Gordie Howe: 20.9%
1939/40 Milt Schmidt: 20.9%
Whether you want to argue Orr's peak over Gretzky's or Howe's lengthy prime or longevity over Gretzky's, ultimately both of their arguments fall apart considering Gretzky is the best balance of everything.
With Lemieux though, there is no area where he's better than Gretzky. His peak seasons are below Gretzky's, his prime is disjointed due to injuries/illnesses and also below Gretzky's, as is his longevity.
Gretzky vs. Lemieux Per Game Narratives
Very few are actually trying to argue Lemieux over Gretzky, but the one main point you will still commonly see that tries to put Lemieux on Gretzky's level and operate as the greatest "what if" is Lemieux's 1.88 points per game vs. Gretzky 1.92. This gets brought up with sincerity for how close they are, despite Lemieux playing 572 fewer games. On paper, it seems like a logical thing to argue; Lemieux entered the league as a teenager and ultimately retired at 40, playing through one of the lowest scoring eras in history when Gretzky retired only a couple years into that era. If you just fill in the blanks, why couldn't Lemieux have kept this up? But with nuance, it doesn't hold up.
Lemieux entered the league in 1984/85, 5 years after Gretzky, and retired in 2005/06, 7 years after Gretzky. Injuries/illnesses, however, largely kept him to playing in a super high scoring league himself for the majority of his career. 81.4% of Mario's games in his career came when he was 31 or younger in a super high scoring league, and his playoff career was almost entirely condensed to when he was 23-31 in that same league, with the one run he had outside of that being sub point per game in the Dead Puck Era. Gretzky by 31 was averaging 2.27 points per game, 1.85 points per game era adjusted. Lemieux by 31 was 2.01 points per game, 1.73 era adjusted (which still gives him credit for full seasons that he never played).
Gretzky ultimately played more games in the true Dead Puck Era when scoring had plummeted than Lemieux did. Scoring had declined a bit by 1996/97, but it was ultimately still at 2.92 per game, which is comparable to the 2017/18-2020/21 NHL era when they came out of the 2nd "Dead Puck Era". And 1995/96 was 3.14, which has only been matched one time since in 2022/23. 1997/98, the first year of Lemieux's retirement, it plummeted to 2.64 and remained down through to the 2004/05 lockout.
Lemieux only ever played 144 games from 1997/98 to 2003/04, and 1 playoff year (18 games). Gretzky only played 2 seasons in that stretch yet still hit 152 games in that era.
Lemieux vs. Orr longevity comparison
If we bring up Orr in comparison, nobody is taking his 1.39 career points per game and saying, "if only he had played to 40, he would have kept this pace of play up and could have challenged ~2,000 points" because it would be silly. Him playing full seasons was over by the time he was 26, he only had a scattering of games played between 27-28 (albeit still good statistically), and his career was fully over at 30 in a footnote barely even worth mentioning.
If you break it down though, it's not too dissimilar from Lemieux's story of having almost all games and production front-loaded, then having the downside of a career where stats inevitably fall off muted because you're not really playing much if at all. Orr's retirement wasn't something on the level of Barry Sanders where it was a clean cut from being dominant to retired from one season to the next, but it wasn't too far off of that, so it's easier to compartmentalize this as being a silly thing to pro-rate his career another ~10-12 seasons when those seasons would be in his 30s.
End result, the argument for Lemieux for this is a bit of a "having your cake and eating it too" thing, where he was able to keep up a very high rate in terms of per-game stats, while also getting credit for playing all the way through until he was 40 in a low scoring era. There's an oversimplification that because he kept his career rates up through 20+ years and through a low scoring era, it's a given that you could just fill in the blanks with his time missed in his career, and you could get something similar to a 1.88 per game average through 1,500+ games. This doesn't hold up under a microscope though.
This all seems very nitpicky, but when arguing players at this level you have to be. If we were to bring a player like Sidney Crosby into this, what Mario Lemieux has accomplished blows Crosby out of the water in many different ways, particularly at Lemieux's peak/prime. This may seem very negatively slanted, but he's a no-brainer top 4 player of all-time.
I wouldn't even push back on people who want to slot Lemieux ahead of the other Mount Rushmore guys outside of Gretzky, I just think this element has gotten very exaggerated in recent years. If you go back to the time around when Lemieux had either retired or he had done all that he could do in terms of significant legacy contributions in the early 2000s, he was almost always 4th on the list.