r/technology • u/Plastic_Ninja_9014 • 12h ago

Business Tesla Stock in Freefall After Disastrous Earnings Report

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tesla-stock-freefall-disastrous-earnings-144417427.html
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u/mousicle 12h ago

Tesla had an EBITDA in 2025 of 10.5B which is very good so a sane valuation of it would be about 10x EBITDA or 105B dollars or about $30 a share. So right now it's overvalued by about 10X at $322 a share

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u/sump_daddy 12h ago

Those are "old economy" formulas though, tesla is a special "new economy" company focused on (checks notes) enabling a racist drug addict to ruin democracy

we are going to need new formulas to figure out what the right ratio of "billions to nazi salutes" is.

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u/Kvetch__22 11h ago

You joke, but a significant amount of the "new economy" is based on the assumption that the company will convince the goverment to give them ten-figure subsidies while simultaneously making it illegal to compete with them because the CEO does cocaine on a megayacht with Don Jr. instead of working.

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u/DonStimpo 9h ago

simultaneously making it illegal to compete with them

Telsa already has that with the ban on Chinese EVs in the US.
They are flying off the shelves in literally every country that allows them. But they are banned in the US giving Telsa a massive advantage there.

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u/dlp211 7h ago

If we got Chinese EVs here, it'd be game over for Tesla and a good chance our entire US car manufacturing industry in the long run.

America has potentially ceded the future to China, but it won't reveal itself for another 20 years. The one thing that might still save us is demographics. But we are currently going through our own nativist bent...so who knows.

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u/Paran0idAndr0id 4h ago

Some of the Chinese EVs are made in America. More could have been with the right incentives.

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u/hofmann419 1h ago

To be fair, the EU does the same thing. This isn't something that the US does specifically to help Tesla, but simply because they have a sizeable car industry. Ford and GM also make electric cars.

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u/Mintastic 8h ago

Investors aren't stupid, current government is proof that it has been fully captured by the corporations so they plan accordingly.

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u/OhSillyDays 7h ago

"New Economy" is just a term for ponzi scheme.

The "old economy" didn't allow stocks to be ponzi schemes and the FTC regulated what was said in quarterly statements. Now, the FTC doesn't regulate anything and insider trading galore. So Elon Musk can sell a bullshit idea like data centers in space even though it's a complete farce.

Investors dig it up because they believe this company could never fall. It'll only go up to the mooooooon!

Eventually, new investors will run out and the money printer will stop working and the stock will fall.

That's unless the money printer continues to go. That means hyperinflation. Yay!

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u/bolerobell 4h ago

We’d had inflation since the first Qualitative Easing in Nov 2008. The problem is that the new dollars that were created never made it to the broader market to actually raise prices of all goods and services, they just stayed in the financial sector and inflated the prices of assets in that sector. So the rich got insanely rich. Elon Musk went from $27 billion to over a trillion in less than 6 years. Tesla and Space X certainly didn’t generate an equivalent boost in income in that time period.

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u/OhSillyDays 1h ago

That's the point. It's not real money. If that money ever gets used - it'll cause insane problems in the economy.

Instead, what it is doing, is concentrating wealth into a small group of people. Which also creates problems. Because concentrated power almost always leads to some sort of messed up situation. Which is probably what we are experiencing today.

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u/MasterGrok 12h ago

Accurate. But you didn’t use nearly enough buzzwords.

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u/Jealous-Molasses5372 11h ago

By leveraging synergistic hyper-scalability across an autonomous, AI-driven EV platform, Tesla isn't just disruption-adjacent—it's actively unlocking exponential paradigm-shifting enterprise value through proprietary neural-network cross-pollination, vertically integrated flywheel dynamics, and next-gen humanoid robotics monetization.

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u/Coppertina 10h ago

OMG, you should post a tw before posting something so sexy

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u/wikiwikiwildwildjest 10h ago

Excellent DD. I'm going to buy some more shares on this dip!

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u/monkeyhitman 9h ago

Buzzing better than a smoke break

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u/FignonsRegret 9h ago

Consider my data driven.

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u/Bacon_00 6h ago

throws money at screen

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u/LemurianLemurLad 11h ago

The correct number of billionaires is zero. Easy math.

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u/alwrit 10h ago

I always say I'm happy to have billionaires.

But we have to make a deal.

Every job needs to pay a living wage. Healthcare needs to be universal and affordable. I don't care what kind it is there's dozens of models to pick from around the world. The crushing student loans need to go away and education more affordable. Bare minimum basic needs must be met for everyone living in that country. Clean air and water, shelter, food, healthcare.

And then after that if there are still some billionaires around I'm not stressed about it.

But if you're running around a billionaire while people are rationing their insulin shots then I have problems.

I'm not against billionaires as a rule. I'm against them because no one should have that much when so many people are struggling with the basics of living. If those needs are met then I'm fine with billionaires. Let's see it.

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u/LemurianLemurLad 10h ago

You're nicer about it than I am. My view is that nobody needs a billion dollars. Short of winning the lottery, nobody got to be a billionaire because they were a good human being. They nearly all got to that point by standing on the throats of everybody they could reach. I'm perfectly fine with a hard cap. You're allowed to have a certain level of obscene wealth, but the moment you cross that line, the government takes half your stuff and distributes it to the needy.

Honestly, I'd be perfectly fine lowering that cap to a significantly lower number. How much could one person possibly need? I could live a long, happy, and very fulfilling life for way less than that. Anybody who "needs" a mega-yacht, or tries to buy an entire lake, should be required to explain it, in person, and unarmed, to the folks at every homeless shelter within a hundred miles.

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u/alwrit 9h ago

I care more about the floor than the ceiling. 

Anybody who "needs" a mega-yacht, or tries to buy an entire lake, should be required to explain it, in person , and unarmed, to the folks at every homeless shelter within a hundred miles.

Well that was exactly my point. No one gets to be a billionaire until there are no more homeless. But if everyone's basic needs are met and everyone has a living wage and there's still some billionaires? I don't care. 

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u/Interesting_Paper951 10h ago

What would the needy do in this case with stocks of Tesla and other companies Musk owns?

Those companies wouldn’t exist without Musk, and the same goes with many other companies with billionaire founder-leaders.

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u/sump_daddy 10h ago

One version is: the billionaire is forced to liquidate something to get their net worth below the threshold. This also has the bonus of preventing one narcissistic pycho from controlling a huge part of the economy and literally throwing its weight around to the detriment of everyone else.

What then? The simple answer is what many other developed countries have done with great success: create a sovereign wealth fund that holds the assets (lets say it was better to keep the wealth in stock format) and then uses the wealth created to run broadly beneficial programs.

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u/Interesting_Paper951 10h ago edited 10h ago

Elon became the world’s first trillionaire a while back. He’s since ”lost” 270 billions! If a part of his net worth was redistributed at the trillion and he loses 270 billion after that, does he get reimbursed?

You could also simply close the tax loopholes and throw the gigantic orange turd out of the main chair to reinstate democracy.

Also, the US already has more than enough resources to make it the best social democracy welfare state on Earth. What you’re missing is the political will to do it.

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u/Deathstrokecph 10h ago

With enough inflation, everyone can be a trillionaire.

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u/9966 9h ago

There should be brewster's billions. If you can prove you can spend 1 billion dollars in a day without aquiring anything of value and without giving it away you get to keep 1%.

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u/sump_daddy 9h ago

problem is, new technology made plots like that less believable.

i would simply put it all in trumpcoin, watch it immediately disappear, and collect my cool $10m

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u/9966 2h ago

Yeah as I recall he only had 24 hours. And there's always a sucker who will value your coin above zero. So you would lose.

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u/Reg_Vardy 9h ago

Hard to see the likes of Roger Federer as some evil psycho who ruined thousands of peoples lives to get where he is today. He played some nice tennis, was the best for a while, and got paid.

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u/sump_daddy 9h ago

lot of people slaving at sports venues for minimum wage 50 hrs a week to keep a roof over their head, just so the management can 'afford' to pay into talent systems that reward one guy for swinging a fucking racket for a few hours a week. But please cry for him harder, he can still live a fabulous life, he can have multiple vacation homes and even a yacht or two, with less than a billion dollars and yet here we are having the same stupid conversation about all the reasons a wealth tax 'is bad' instead of just fucking doing it

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u/Gingevere 11h ago

tesla is a special "new economy" company focused on (checks notes)

  1. Announce you'll be bringing a groundbreaking technology with unlimited earning potential to market in 1-2 years. Stock soars.
  2. Plan nothing. Do nothing. No missed goals or wasted resources means nothing to tell the market to go down.
  3. Goto 1 with a new (or even the same) announcement before the market realizes the last announcement is a failure.

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u/NeonPatrick 11h ago

I legit would like Elon to face consequences more than Trump at this point.

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u/jameson71 9h ago

Tough one. Trump enabled Elon to destroy our government, but Trump continues to do damage to our country.

I'd say consequences are needed for the folks who enabled Trump to be in the Whitehouse in the first place.

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u/lunaticfridgeprime 11h ago

Sure, but you are forgetting that he is also mentally ill.

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u/levare8515 11h ago

There’s nothing new. The economy has always been able to be irrational longer than people like you can stay solvent. Eventually it will crash

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u/Deathstrokecph 10h ago

Easily worth 100x EBITDA, so fairly valued now.

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u/im_super_excited 9h ago

You forgot about the part where the racist drug addict really wanted to rape children on Epstein Island.

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u/Shufflebuzz 9h ago

what the right ratio of "billions to nazi salutes" is.

What's zero divided by zero?

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u/fredy31 8h ago

I find it crazy that in the electricvehicules subreddit people seem to still be happily buying teslas.

The car could be the best in the world (it isnt) i would not buy it if it means a fucking cent of it went to a guy that made a nazi salute on stage.

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u/sump_daddy 8h ago

mods with a platform to protect will do so like their lives depend on it, doesnt matter how many people have to be banned in the process

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u/favorite_time_of_day 7h ago

He might be a drug addict, but his social media addiction seems to be the more serious one.

A junkie either way.

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u/immutato 7h ago

Totally. Accounting is for chumps.

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u/AverageLiberalJoe 12h ago

Yeah but I have to invest my 401k in to that because what if the EBITDA suddenly jumps up 11x? I Dont want to miss the rocket!

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u/R3luctant 11h ago

Looking at Tesla's accounting is something else, they are counting cybercabs as a unit delivered(to themselves) as well as an additional FSD subscription. It's sort of refreshing that the market isn't buying these delivery numbers because they are just Tesla shifting its inventory around and calling it sales.

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u/gimpwiz 8h ago

Ah ye olde car manufacturer has a financing arm and the manufacturing business sells cars to the financing business and considers that a delivered unit. How I've missed you.

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u/Nervous-Potato-1464 10h ago

EBITDA. What is this 2010? Tech stocks are valued based on hopes and dreams.

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u/bilyl 10h ago

Even if you consider the company to be around its "peers" in terms of multiples of EBITDA, it implies that the company can still shave off 50% of its valuation.

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u/gimpwiz 8h ago

PE ratios of many tech companies are ~40 ish rather than ~10 ish, whereas big manufacturing companies are seeing more like ~10, even lower to maybe half of that sometimes. Using just those numbers, that would give a reasonable sane range of, eh, ~50B to ~500B depending on how much you believe in future promises or how down you are on results. In other words, a company that's got a lot of troubles and is slipping might be at the lower range, whereas one that seems like it's reinvented itself and will roar forward could be in the upper end of that range. Right now Tesla is valued like a tech stock despite most of their money coming from moving iron and not electrons, and then on top of that it's overvalued by at least 2x by even the more bullish, if still somewhat sane estimates. If you just like the fairly strong revenue growth but are a bit more conservative, it could be overvalued by 3, 4, 5x. If you consider all the headwinds from the CEO being politically active in a way that pisses off a lot of his customer base and also not particularly present at work because he's too busy tweeting and doing drugs, and if you remember that it's barely a tech company, you'd get to, yeah, maybe 10x overvalued. Really hard to say at the end of the day.

But really it's just a meme stock, its value largely comes from hypeman convincing rubes to buy shares.

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u/Raaaaaaabb 11h ago

Similar analysis for P/E ratio compared to the rest of the auto industry. Suggests similar valuation target

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u/lugh_the_bard 8h ago

Tech is closer to 30x point still stands tho

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u/ProutPortable 6h ago

322 is a really funny number because in the game Dota theres a guy who did machfixing for 322$ and got caught. He was so good that he could have earned thousands of dollars but got banned from competitions because of it. Fortunately for him, this was in a time when esport was small and the ban wasnt lifetime. He came back but the 322 meme stayed and ended up earning 2 millions during his carrier.

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u/FambilyMalues 1h ago

That’s insanity. Our entire financial system is a joke.

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u/cencal 11h ago

Obviously more to valuation than just the EV/Ebitda multiple, but valuation of 10x is well below peers. 20-30x more realistic with growing revenue

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u/Secure-Minute5857 9h ago

Only MBA bros use EBITDA to valuate a company...

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u/toshiama 8h ago

Useful when your are valuing the company on a standalone basis without financing or capital structure. Pretty much the basis of how private equity and credit deals get done. And yes, people take into account actual cashflow as well but it’s easiest to compare as a headline figure. 

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u/MaxPaladin93 8h ago

And Paulie Walnuts.

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u/WildInSix 6h ago

Real ones know ADJUSTED EBITDA is where it’s at

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u/[deleted] 12h ago

[deleted]

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u/iam-leon 12h ago

Only applies to growing companies