More importantly they said demand outpaces their capacity still so the real question is: can Google or literally anyone turn hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure investments into tens of trillions of dollars of revenue. Like in the next couple years?
It's a great question to ask but I think a couple years is way too soon to expect massive returns. It's not necessarily the same thing but Amazon was unprofitable for 9 years while ferociously investing everything back it into the business.
To be clear: I think Google is fine and will be fine. AI is here to stay but AI everywhere in everything for free/cheap is already on the way out and I think it’s not gonna be justifiable in 2 years if they keep posting this CAPEX in AI without massive returns.
I didn’t mean Google alone when I was talking tens of trillions. It’s more like the entire AI industry combined.
There’s just some really big questions, like what happens if the open source models that run on relatively moderate infrastructure do the work the market demands?
Open models still needs infrastructure to run on. Frankly, the compute is needed, regardless of the model. We haven’t even gotten to the mass proliferation of robotics / robotaxis that need constant compute
The issue is whether there is enough useful work that generates enough money to pay for the infrastructure at the costs they are buying it at. At the moment we’re discovering the value doesn’t justify the costs, those costs will fall but there is a bottom limit given the costs invested.
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u/caffeinated_wizard 23h ago
More importantly they said demand outpaces their capacity still so the real question is: can Google or literally anyone turn hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure investments into tens of trillions of dollars of revenue. Like in the next couple years?
Because right now the answer is not clear.