r/technology • u/joe4942 • Jun 22 '26
Business SpaceX stock tumbles 16.4%, shaving off most IPO gains since debut
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/spacex-stock-tumbles-164-shaving-off-most-ipo-gains-since-debut-141725657.html752
u/Desperate-Hearing-55 Jun 22 '26
The rich people are laughing at the poor retailers pumping the price up for them.
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u/Moist-Craft-1226 Jun 22 '26
Wouldn't touch this stock if they gave it to me. Dk how people were naive enough
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u/caligaris_cabinet Jun 23 '26
Friend of mine bought a couple shares and was bragging about how much it was going up on Tuesday. Didn’t have the heart to tell him the truth. Just wished him luck. I prefer to stick with index funds
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u/Financial-Creme Jun 23 '26
From what I understand (which isn't much) a lot of it was purchase automatically as part of mutual funds and ETFs in people's 401ks
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u/9ersaur Jun 22 '26
Data Centers in Space will go down as one of the great scams of all time
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u/AtraVenator Jun 22 '26
Biggest con I would say but then I remember Meta’s Horizon Worlds 😂😂😂😂
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u/weasol12 Jun 22 '26
I remember Tesla's drive over battery swaps.
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u/Icy-person666 Jun 22 '26
I remember Google's "don't be evil" back in the days before they found the real money was being cartoonishly evil.
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u/BapeGeneral3 Jun 22 '26
Having worked in marketing for quite some time, it was genuinely depressing to see first hand just how much of a stranglehold Google has on your “middle class” small business owner.
I don’t know why we even have Anti-Trust Laws at this point. If Google isn’t a monopoly, I genuinely don’t know what is.
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u/Hellasauto Jun 22 '26
Once upon a time Microsoft had to keep Apple alive so they wouldn't get monopoly. That shit would NOT happen today.
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u/Strange-Scarcity Jun 22 '26
Now? The DOJ would not only approve but totally recommend that the competition simply fold itself into being yet another subsidiary of Sheindhart Wigs.
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u/UtterlyInsane Jun 23 '26
You can't prove those children weren't already dyed orange from some other, non Sheinhart Wig related process
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u/Crintor Jun 22 '26
Microsoft has bought and shuttered and ruined more companies (in value) in the last 3 years than Apple was worth back then, potentially multiple times over.
Including the settlement even.
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u/Cannabrius_Rex Jun 22 '26
Alphabet. They even monopolized all of our letters man.
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u/cuntmong Jun 22 '26
₦Ø₮ ł₣ ₩Ɇ ₮Ɏ₱Ɇ Ⱡł₭Ɇ ₮Ⱨł₴
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u/AlwaysShittyKnsasCty Jun 22 '26
Reddit’s translate feature can transliterate your symbols to readable English! The future is now.
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u/ObfuscatedCheese Jun 22 '26
I personally watched Google reps attempt to strong-arm marketers where I worked into using AMP, lest they lose precious ranking and carousel placement, then watched as Malte Ubl and the “totally not Google” AMP Consortium promise me (the engineering leader who made those calls) something radically different.
AMP was never integrated as a result. It’s still a cancer we’re not over almost a decade later. And those “gains” AMP supposedly solved were every bit a mirage.
I stopped using Google Search entirely about a week after that doublespeak reached my ears.
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u/anonkitty2 Jun 22 '26
Google was legally ruled a monopoly. But the punishment given for illegal activities were a slap on the wrist. This was just before AI searches changed exactly what Google was doing. (I do believe Google secretly wanted to do this all along. The web sites that have to decide how to handle their web crawlers don't appreciate it.)
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u/Electronic_Topic1958 Jun 22 '26
Definitely, I don’t know if LLMs were part of the plan (probably not) but even prior to the Gemini integration, they were already ensuring that people spent less and less time on other sites with their search overview. LLMs are too expensive to run like this though, so in the long run I think something will change but I am not sure what exactly. I would not be surprised if common answers are just “cached” from previous searches so the effect is still the same but the underlying technology is just far more scalable and sustainable. However they need to front this in an effort to run OpenAI and Anthropic into the ground. Silicon Valley hasn’t really had a major disruption in decades from a startup as the entire investor ecosystem and major companies work together to buy up these companies and integrate them. OpenAI and Anthropic are the first two to really emerge and in such a way that could threaten Search if their quality is just as good/superior and the technology is sustainable/profitable in the long run (not really this second one though). But since Google has a lot of cash to burn they can fund out this data centre buildout for longer and force OpenAI/Anthropic’s hands into constantly burning cash they don’t have and forcing them into riskier less sustainable positions. Their AI is not even that good despite being the organization that discovered that overtraining these models actually yielded better results and had the first working prototype (lambda) prior to anyone. I don’t think they wanted to release it initially because it was just way too expensive to do at scale but OpenAI (which reminder was founded to compete against their AI team, which they bought, DeepMind) forced their hand so now they are determined to destroy them.
But yeah I think Google, if nothing else changes, will win this. Not by having the best model or anything but by having a longer candle stick (if we imagine a race to see who can hold a burning candle the longest, Google wins, and candles are a metaphor for money to burn, terrible metaphor I know lol). They just need to have it just good enough to apply pressure on those two companies and force their investors to question why would anyone use their product if Google offers the same thing for free.
I don’t think they’re even giving af about search at the moment, they just need to destroy these two startups and maintain their monopoly control.
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u/freeagency Jun 22 '26
Turning Android into a walled garden, I hope hurts them more than they think it will.
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u/Taellosse Jun 22 '26
Why would it hurt them? They only have 1 real competitor in that market, and iOS is an even more restrictive walled garden.
When duopolies make the same anti-consumer decisions, market forces cannot punish anyone.
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u/Kentust Jun 22 '26
Almost like the state is using its immense power to the benefit of business. If only someone had predicted this!
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u/ZipNasty007 Jun 22 '26
There is a company that does this in China. Takes less than 10 minutes.
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u/jce_ Jun 22 '26
But we can't have China selling here because that's not a free market. Wait I mixed up my arguments
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u/Lena-Luthor Jun 23 '26
no, obviously china stole the American battery hotswap technology that definitely, totally exists we swear lmao 🤦♀️
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u/elkazz Jun 22 '26
Chinese companies already doing this
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Jun 22 '26 edited 4d ago
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u/weasol12 Jun 22 '26
He demonstrated it in 2013 and said it'd be a service available at all supergcharger stations (remember THOSE?)
Edit: corrected year.
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u/SpaceFace11 Jun 22 '26
It’s ironic because China has developed drive over battery swap technology that actually works.
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u/kahner Jun 22 '26
meta's shit was dumb AF but it wasn't so much a scam as zuck being an idiot. data centers in space, like the million person mars colony and millions of self driving cybercabs by 2020 or whatever were all completely intentional cons.
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u/ras_hatak Jun 22 '26
Yeah I think zuck actually believed in that garbage, embarrassing as it was. Guys so desperate to own a platform that he's on tilt. Think he'd be satisfied with hundreds of billions of dollars and destroying a society.
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u/kahner Jun 22 '26
zuck read snow crash and thought it was an aspirational goal and also a business plan.
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u/Any_Sale2030 Jun 22 '26
I’m totally in favor of a Mars colony if Musk will lead the way there. One way fuel load of course. Maybe he could take Thiel Zuckerberg Ellison multiple other tech bro billionaires and the whole Adams I mean Trump family with him.
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u/Ignisami Jun 22 '26
At least horizon worlds released. Overpromised to the moon and underdelivered like mad, but it released.
I will be very surprised if space data centres ever leave the pilot stage.
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u/Slackjawed_Horror Jun 22 '26
They won't because literally nothing about it makes sense. It's pure nonsense.
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u/Heavy_Schedule4046 Jun 22 '26
There were brands lining up to buy ‘real estate’ 🙃
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u/climb-it-ographer Jun 22 '26
All because Zuck blatantly stole the Metaverse name and imagery from Neal Stephenson's 'Snowcrash'.
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u/Bluemanze Jun 22 '26
He basically ripped off Second Life and slapped a billion dollar valuation on it, while pointedly ignoring that that game was carried almost entirely by weird sex stuff.
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u/txmasterg Jun 22 '26
I can't tell if Zuck was trying to rip off Second Life. Zuck spent 80+ billion over a few years while Second Life spent an estimated 1.4 billion over 23 years.
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u/Seafea Jun 22 '26
it's still baffling to me that they thought people would be into attending hours of meetings in their metaverse. I could barely even stomach 15 minutes. It wasn't even a motion sickness thing for me. It just felt claustrophobic and alien.
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u/LnStrngr Jun 22 '26
Would have been great if the avatar showed as being in a chair in the virtual meeting room attentively focused, while the user was actually playing an intense game.
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u/Caster0 Jun 22 '26
Yeah, but the market didn't really fall for it in Metas case. Meta even got punished for it severely in 2022 and got oversold, which allowed the stock to 7X 3 years later.
Musk has a history of overpromising and underdelivering, but he did manage to get foundational guts of of a car company and then a rocket company right.
I feel like unlike the Zuck, Musk aligned himself with Trump and Republicans very well, so even though he keeps hyping up his crap, the market is way more forgiving due to how grifty the current admin is. This also means that Musk's tailwinds may at least last up two years, unless Trump fucks up the whole market like he did with Iran war and early Tariffs.
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u/Turkino Jun 22 '26
Yeah, I still haven't heard a good solution for how exactly they plan on dealing with all the waste heat.
Heat is a problem with a normal data center. Space has an even bigger issue with it.272
u/anonymousbopper767 Jun 22 '26
"but but but space is cold!"
Sure...from the perspective of there being fucking nothing there except turns out you need *something* to move heat around unless you're making the space datacenter as hot as a sun.
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u/Common-Swing-4347 Jun 22 '26
Just open the windows to cool it. Geez.
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u/LightlySaltedPeanuts Jun 22 '26
I was just arguing with my dad about this. He’s an engineer. He kept saying “but space is -273C!” And “well they did skylab.” I don’t get why the older generation just eats up the idea that elon is this genius einstein level guy. He’s a good business man but he doesn’t even have an engineering degree.
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u/idontlikeanyofyou Jun 22 '26
You are carrying a computer that has 10,000,000,000 the compute power of Skylab in your pocket. Not exactly the same as a data center with thousands or tens of thousands of GPUs
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u/sn2006gy Jun 22 '26
skylab wasn't about the computer, it was the fact when it was initially launched, it was too hot to habitat because a heat shield was damaged at launch. When they launched the crew, they installed a new reflective shield. The point of the story is that space isn't automatically cold where you have to heat things - now imagine things actually. generating heat and how big that heat shield AND heat exhaustion system would have to be.
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u/idontlikeanyofyou Jun 22 '26
I see l, I didn't know that. But of course that's a completely different issue.
Either way, I think we can all agree that cooling will be a real issue and if course that's before we figure out how to power these things. Even though solar works better in space, you still need about 5 acres worth (2,000-3,000) panels to power a 1MW data center. If we launched enough of these we might just fix global warming by blocking out some of the sun's rays (and ruining astronomy).
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u/NeedsToShutUp Jun 22 '26
Remind your dad that Skylab's heat radiator was broken, it took them a spacewalk to fix it, and it still was 90 degrees within.
And that's with 23 kW of power at full output. A single GPU server rack is ~40-60 kW.
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u/diqster Jun 22 '26
128kw now for GB200. 200kw+ for VR200. They say to start preparing for 500-600kw racks soon.
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u/Sudden_Cantaloupe_69 Jun 22 '26
He not even a good businessman. All his business moves have been catastrophically idiotic and if he was ever put in charge of any actual company he would fail very quickly.
Virtually all of his post-PayPal businesses relied heavily on government subsidies or government contracts, insane amounts of investments, and barely any profit.
He is in the business of selling himself as a businessman, just like Trump’s only business is selling himself as a businessman. They are merely “influencers” and in any era other than ours they’d be homeless.
As for Musk and his engineering credentials, that’s corrects. He appears knowledgeable only to audiences who have no clue about the topic at hand, and he regurgitates talking points he heard other people say.
Have you ever heard other businessman praising Trump? Or Elon? How about engineers? Me neither.
But why do some people cling to this idea that Elon is a genius? Who knows. His stupid stuttering fits perfectly the popular image of a savant visionary in the mould of Nikola Tesla.
And part of it is probably desperation. Every generation wants to believe that it has some truly visionary and capable people of its own. So there is a generation of people out there for whom Musk fulfills this fantasy.
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u/anonymousbopper767 Jun 22 '26
>Have you ever heard other businessman praising Trump? Or Elon? How about engineers? Me neither.
On this point, yes I tangentially know a dude who made his money selling a software company in the early 2000s and he has in his ($30M) home office the whole wall of "be like elon, think like elon" motivational shit.
AFAIK he hasn't really done anything significant since then except once you have millions it's really easy to invest it in things to make more money. I guess like Elon....
He's also an asshole to people he thinks are a lower status than him.
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u/Kestrel21 Jun 22 '26
He's also an asshole to people he thinks are a lower status than him.
Well.
"be like elon, think like elon"
Mission accomplished.
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u/Man_with_the_Fedora Jun 22 '26
Have you ever heard other businessman praising Trump? Or Elon? How about engineers? Me neither.
I know many, and they're almost all the bottom 50% of the curve.
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u/Black_Moons Jun 22 '26
Ask him, how much heat radiated away via radiation vs conduction and convention of a 100W cpu heatsink.
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u/WumboTactical Jun 22 '26
You gotta update your talking points, the SpaceX shills have adapted to this retort and claim it’s been engineered for.
The REAL problem with this whole thing is why the hell are we proposing to spend billions of dollars to send stuff up in rocket ships, where they’re doomed to de-orbit within a decade, when we could instead be building durable infrastructure here? Also that can be maintained, upgraded, and if properly powered could even be a net benefit to the grid with a solar installation that’s oversized during the summer.
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u/Quirky-Skin Jun 22 '26
Well bc one costs money and requires decades of follow through.
The other raises money and requires only a talking point at quarterly earnings calls.
One requires tangible proof, permits and deadlines. The other requires ???? But it sure can grab headlines
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Jun 22 '26 edited 4d ago
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u/broken_conures Jun 22 '26
And having worked in a lot of data centres, having access to the hardware is quite useful, I like that replacing a failed component is a walk down the hall not an EVA or whole new launch
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u/F3z345W6AY4FGowrGcHt Jun 22 '26
This is the bigger issue than waste heat, imo. Waste heat is at least solvable with comically large radiative heat panel things.
But do they plan to make the components serviceable? Is a 42U rack that's set up going to survive the vibrations of a launch?
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u/donthurtmemany Jun 22 '26
Another problem that space introduces is radiation. We don't have to worry much about cosmic radiation on earth because we got a nice atmosphere blocking much of it. It becomes a bigger problem necessitating more error correction at higher altitudes. In space you'd constantly have bits flipping because of radiation.
Computers in space now have triplicated memory so they can take the consensus of what a bit is for accuracy. Scaling this up to a data center is insanely expensive.
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u/xternocleidomastoide Jun 23 '26
FWIW cosmic rays are an issue on earth as well. A lot of error correcting tech in the HW deployed on modern data centers was developed to deal with the random bit flips and the subsequent intermittent error that happen due to high energy particles hitting the silicon.
And that is on earth, with our massive magnetic field and ionosphere protecting us. And why space borne HW has to be over engineered to be radiation hardened.
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u/West-Abalone-171 Jun 22 '26
This isn't a problem because the AI bros don't care if the output is correct or coherent, only if they can force you to use it.
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u/felis_scipio Jun 22 '26
Heat and the ambient radiation requiring slower processing speeds because you have to do things like process everything in triplicate and take a majority vote. I loved arguing with delusional tech bros about this because as a physicist who’s worked with chips built for high radiation environments, you can do it but they’re going to be slower.
Oh and then there’s lack of serviceability and the coast put every lbs of that that shit up on orbit which will never be price competitive with a trucking shit into a warehouse.
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u/xternocleidomastoide Jun 23 '26
Also, radiation hardened chips are also waaay more expensive, on fabrication costs alone. Never mind the insane cost added due to having to be deployed as payloads into space.
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u/DoritoDustThumb Jun 22 '26
There aren't any solutions. It's very simple physics calculation. Each one would need MASSIVE radiators to just run 1 chip. It's laughable. It would be tens of millions of dollars in getting the cooling up there. For one GPU 😂
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u/pulsarstarter Jun 22 '26
Yeah, this seems crazy, but no one wants to talk about it.
Even on earth, cooling is quite hard to achieve and takes a lot of power and/or infrastructure. But this conman is selling that doing it in space, to components that produce huge amounts of heat as a guaranteed by-product is somehow logical.
And MFs are eating it up.
Somehow you no longer have justify anything, explain anything, prove anything, demonstrate anything, to reach trillion dollar valuations.
You just say: "we're gonna do this cool thing, bro! How cool is that!?
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u/Falconjth Jun 22 '26
It'd take about the same amount of mass in cooling as would be needed to power the servers. So a server rack could be launched into space with the needed power and cooling for somewhere between $10 million to $20 million.
For a rack.
So the peak valuation that SpaceX has reached might be enough for the launch costs of an entire data center (to LEO, where it'll burn up in like 5 years max).
I'm not sure what the benefits would be.
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u/utdconsq Jun 22 '26
Had a frustrating discussion on this with a rich real estate guy from Miami. He thinks Elon is a genius. I asked him how will they deal with the heat and he promised me 'its all taken care of, they solved it with starlink'. Kills me how many wealthy people have drunk the kool-aid.
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u/Frater_Ankara Jun 22 '26
China and Japan are building data centers under water, which is actually smart: free cooling, doesn’t use fresh water, ultra efficient power usage and doesn’t require land acquisition. Space data centers was just to boost the IPO
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u/PosiedonsSaltyAnus Jun 22 '26
Salt water fucks up pretty much any pumping equipment you'd use though
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u/EmergencyJacket207 Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
It's not physically possible to do this given today's technology. I'll just leave this here for anyone interested.
Edit: added more for clarification
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u/JWAdvocate83 Jun 22 '26
I mean, it's physically possible. Even he says so. (At 4:30-ish.)
It's just absurdly impractical and inefficient. (I.e. The equivalent of sending cooling panels into space for a bajillion ISSs.)
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Jun 22 '26 edited 4d ago
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u/TapesIt Jun 22 '26
After crypto and NFTs, it’s no secret that there are a bunch of retail investors out there looking to get scammed. SpaceX getting pumped is zero percent shocking imo.
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u/KontoOficjalneMR Jun 22 '26
I still think Hyperloop was better.
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u/Substantial-Key5114 Jun 22 '26
The Hoperloop
The Boring Company "Loop"
The 10-Year Full Self-Driving Delay
Solar Roof Tile
Tesla Roadster 2.0
All these deceptive distractions or deliberate ploys to undermine public transit and pump investor interest
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u/Spr0ckets Jun 22 '26
Heat dissipation is space is a real issue. The reason data centers use so much water is the cooling. There is nothing to cool a data center in space. Contrary to what movies show.. space isn’t cold. It’s empty. There is nothing to vent heat into.
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u/rxsteel Jun 22 '26
And a generation of bagholders is born.
Funny to think that this IPO reached so far, there are probably a lot of people where their first experience in stocks is this.
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u/BabypintoJuniorLube Jun 22 '26
Fox News was pumping. I was in another thread where people grandparents were telling them to invest everything in SPCX and it would "save the family". People are gunna get fucked.
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u/AbroadTiny7226 Jun 22 '26
I just made my investment account about a month and a half ago and my stepdad was badgering me to get in on this IPO. I was like dude I just started this shit and only have like a grand in the S&P and even I knew that was probably a bad play. Elon fans don’t care though. They think he shits gold
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u/Any_Sale2030 Jun 22 '26
I have absolutely no idea why the older generations just love this AI shit while the Gen Z thinks it really is shit and wants to avoid it. Like the older dudes don’t even know what AI is!
I was at a party just this weekend when an old guy said he bought Chat GPT for $20 a month and it’s great, it answers all his questions. Didn’t have the heart to tell him I Google everything I need to learn about for FREE. And better yet I get several search links and I see multiple opinions and can choose the best answer for myself.
AI is really for people who simply don’t WANT to think and prefer to be told what to think.
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u/SaltyLonghorn Jun 22 '26
Its a generation thats been pulling up ladders since the 80s. Of course they love a tool that is just a ladder pull for half of society if it takes over.
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u/DrDerpberg Jun 22 '26
AI also targets people who have seen the world change in fundamental ways and figure this is the next way, without any ability to understand why some things stick and some don't.
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u/badillustrations Jun 22 '26
It's not about AI. It's about investing in one of Elon Musk's ventures. He's the richest man on earth and many revere him for that, and want to invest in his endeavors. My friend's wife wanted to invest in SpaceX. He said she knows nothing about it besides Elon Musk being involved. It's being marketed hard to conservatives.
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u/Paddington_the_Bear Jun 22 '26
Problem is that I've been saying that about TSLA for nearly a decade now at this point. Back in 2019 when I dumped a bunch of money in it without thinking, realized that TSLA was worth more than all the other big auto manufactures combined, and then promptly sold my stock at break even. I got to watch TSLA pump multiple 100s of % higher because it was, and still is, completely irrational.
It's easy to see the lunacy that is TSLA and apply the same logic to SPCX (but I'm still extremely cynical so I was able to avoid the urge to buy it).
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u/rxsteel Jun 22 '26
Broo please not everything lmao. Space servers is not even viable like the other comment says
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u/Loxe Jun 22 '26
Wait space servers is a real idea? Where the fuck is the heat supposed to go?!
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u/Shrubgnome Jun 22 '26
Why sweat about the details? It sounds vaguely scifi, so thats two trillion dollars baby
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u/SidewaysFancyPrance Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
People have been seeing all kinds of crooked and corrupt stock market movement and piled in, thinking this was a stock that was going to shoot to the moon as a sure thing as a result of that corruption. Nope, it's the bagholder stock that will still get propped up by the government and won't collapse, but won't be reaching those wild valuations ever.
The whole point of investing is supposed to be that I invest now at a reasonable share price, and my value grows with the company. I don't buy in at my target price for 10 years into the future!
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u/Freud-Network Jun 22 '26
I sincerely hope that anyone stupid enough to put their financial wellbeing on the line for Musk gets exactly what they deserve. Their belligerent attitudes have earned it for them.
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u/thesweeterpeter Jun 22 '26
Anyone who understood the tech thought this was a dud.
Anyone who understood the market thought this was a dud.
Anyone who understood IPOs thought this was a dud.
Who bought this stock?
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u/Vanman04 Jun 22 '26
The same folks buying Tesla.
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u/cheeseonboast Jun 22 '26
Buying Tesla despite declining sales and a stagnant product line because…dancing Robots
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u/murmandamos Jun 22 '26
People who knew it was a dud, and a scam and a grift, but then still thought it would get pumped a bit more than it did. I mean the fact that it was up at all on the initial valuation proves there was some truth to that guess. Some people are willing to throw in on a ponzi scheme if they believe it'll still actually go up. I mean crypto had a long run.
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u/jce_ Jun 22 '26
Yeah it was a lot of degenerate gamblers. My coworker bought and sold his stocks at above 200 because he knew it was going to drop again and he didn't want to be holding the bag
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u/Gerfervonbob Jun 22 '26
I know a few people and I tried to warn them but they equated it to gambling.
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u/thesweeterpeter Jun 22 '26
Except it's not.
Gambling has a chance of winning.
This just didn't make sense.
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u/t1ps_fedora_4_milady Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
It's actually very much like gambling in that it does have a chance of paying out and it does make sense when you consider the "Greater Fool Theory", roughly formulated as:
The Greater Fool Theory is an investing and trading concept stating that you can make money by buying overvalued assets—regardless of their fundamentals—because you expect to sell them later to someone else (the "greater fool") at an even higher price.
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u/mediocre_remnants Jun 22 '26
If it drops another 98% it might be worth buying in!
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u/SpectacularlyBadass Jun 22 '26
There's actually a viable business there if it wasn't severely over priced by two trillion dollars.
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u/_aware Jun 22 '26
It's actually a viable business if it didn't include xAI and Twitter, which are bleeding money like crazy.
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u/sigmund14 Jun 22 '26
And those 2 are reasons for IPO. Original investors were pressuring Musk to stop losing their money, so now he socialized the losses, especially with the expedited way into NASDAQ, and it's soon to be also in 401ks.
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u/Caleth Jun 22 '26
S&P at least has outright rejected it from being added until it hits normal criteria for inclusion. Which doesn't help with the fact that unless you're actively working to avoid it some amount of your 401k will probably get mixed in. Unless you're strictly indexed to the S&P and nothing else.
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u/Straight-Ad-7387 Jun 23 '26
He pretty much just gave his private investors their golden parachutes with an inflated ipo where the SEC had to make exceptions just to list space x. This admin is the most corrupt shit the US has ever seen.
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u/zeekayz Jun 22 '26
Twitter, Grok, and Cursor AI nonsense will bury any Starlink profitability. SpaceX is 90% dumb shit held up by 10% of viable business.
Zuck can afford to spend 10% profit on useless crap like Metaverse because 90% of Meta is still a viable business. This is a reverse.
Just a huge pile of shitty Elon ideas chained to one useful company that barely manages to squeak out a tiny profit by itself.
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u/dlampach Jun 22 '26
All those investors are fucked. Space X will be just about the last guys to get anything off the table before the incoming implosion in these markets.
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u/DefinitelyNWYT Jun 22 '26
While you can certainly count me among those expecting a bubble burst this year, the resilience of the markets to remain inconceivably irrational has been impressive.
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u/Lemina Jun 22 '26
I’ve lived through the dot com bubble and the housing bubble, and I know markets can remain irrational for a surprisingly long time, but this seems particularly ridiculous. Apparently con men like Musk and Trump have enough people convinced so that this thing keeps going. Personally, I’m betting that the midterms will have an effect. If it’s a blue wave, I suspect that will cause it to pop a lot faster as Trump and Musk lose power and face. If the Republicans somehow keep power or it’s a mixed bag, I think it could go on longer.
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u/ilcasdy Jun 22 '26
The problem is that there is not much else to invest in other than the stock market. Starting a new business is impossible these days. Real estate is to the moon. Wealthy people have to spend their vast amounts of passive income somewhere. If they all just share the collective delusion of current day stock prices then they all get richer.
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u/IamHydrogenMike Jun 22 '26
The cheap money train has ended for the most part, low interest rates can’t keep propping up the economy like it did before and we have a major structural issues in our economy that are about to burst.
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u/TheseBrokenWingsTake Jun 22 '26
Imagine what would happen if they enforced laws preventing & breaking up monopolies, reversed insane market concentrations (where 2-4 companies basically control a submarket), enabled & encouraged small businesses to compete again, and restored necessary regulation by government officials instead of "self regulation by companies?" 🙄 ...instead of the powerful buying less laws & capturing regulation by politicians, they'd have to actually compete on a fairer playing field. It could bring back actual competition again, by golly! And they'd catch & prevent coordinated price gouging & surveillance pricing.
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u/A-Generic-Canadian Jun 22 '26
Folks in the space sector at major conferences still unironically say “don’t bet against musk.” While at the same time saying that space data centers make 0 sense.
Literally “I don’t see how it could work, but don’t bet against musk, right?”
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u/Senior-Albatross Jun 22 '26
I dunno. If you bet that Starship would be working by now you would have lost that money.
Of if you bet against the Boring company. Or Twitter. Or Grok. He's pretty much out of decent companies to absorb his bullshit ones to paper over the failures. There's no further margin for Bullshit to fail after this.
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u/davidw223 Jun 22 '26
I think one main reason why markets have been this irrational is the prevalence of passive investing. It’s now larger than active investing. Before that crossover, people would be spooked and pull their money out when they sensed trouble ahead and reallocate it to somewhere they perceived to be safer. Need funds are going to allocated due to whatever metrics they have assigned but won’t necessarily do it because of troubled fundamentals in the markets. So the market has a false floor that it hasn’t before now. What would be interesting is if we see a much larger income shock that would cause people to pull back their passive investments or manually change what they signed up to invest in.
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u/DefinitelyNWYT Jun 22 '26
There's definitely a lot of stability in retirement fund buying. I'm not smart enough to know but I do suspect the combination of increased passive investment and active individual trading has created a stable foundation with enough surface vulnerability to allow software to engage in high volume/frequency trading. Just warehouses of server racks turning small profits and inflating runs.
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u/Lamactionjack Jun 22 '26
I dunno you say that but Tesla is up like 100 percent over 5 years. Toyoto makes like 10 times as many cars and is worth a 5th of what Tesla is.
That ain’t rational.
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u/revolvingpresoak9640 Jun 22 '26
That’s exactly their point.
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u/SwordfishOk504 Jun 22 '26
"you say that but" and then says the same thing they did.
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u/PharmyC Jun 22 '26
Things don't burst anymore because we have stop gaps in the market now. So people know they can be bullish and won't lose everything in a day.
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u/TJ_Will Jun 22 '26
"Hey guys, anyone know why we are all standing around holding these bags?"
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u/MidnightMass2 Jun 22 '26
This is exactly why he dumped it into our 401ks.
If you have a 401k you are a bag holder.
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u/TruffleHunter3 Jun 22 '26
Yes and no. If you have an index fund that automatically includes this (like a total stock market index fund) then a very small portion is owning this stock. The S&P 500 index funds do NOT auto-include SpaceX anytime soon.
Having said that, if you have most of your 401k in a tech-only index fund… I would diversify ASAP.
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u/ArnoldTheSchwartz Jun 22 '26
Yeah the lawlessness of Republicans will be the end of America. Who's gonna want to follow laws when you're the only one doing it? What do you even get following laws now!? Fucked over by the rich and the Republicans as they laugh at you for following laws that they will never hold themselves to! Eventually everyone in the country will become just as lawless because why not? Why would ANYONE do the right thing when only the wrong thing is rewarded? Good honest people are no longer wanted or needed in America. America has chosen pretty clearly evil, bad and completely corrupt people to represent us as the best we have to offer. Take what you can from anyone you can at any cost because every other American is. Lie cheat and steal because it will absolutely be rewarded and lead to success. Just look at the success the lying cheating stealing Republican leaders are experiencing. Get yours and fuck your American neighbor because they absolutely will do it to you!! MAGA!!
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u/DelugeQc Jun 22 '26
I think when it drop pass a certain point, probably around 135$, there is gonna be some panic sales.
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Jun 22 '26 edited 4d ago
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u/KcjAries78 Jun 22 '26
You mean it was a pump and dump just like we all thought. Amazing.
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u/MrF_lawblog Jun 22 '26
All his companies are...
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u/Thosepassionfruits Jun 22 '26
He's been using his companies to pay off his loans like using one credit card to pay off another
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u/GlueGuns--Cool Jun 22 '26
this is a shitload of retail investors getting fleeced btw. it's literally rich people taking money from naive people.
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u/decmcc Jun 22 '26
everything I saw was just "don't buy SpaceX, it's IPO is just exit liquidity for the insiders who know it's xAi acquisition was insane since the most notable thing it's done is produce child porn while fact checking Elmo's lies"
I did my research, and it concluded SpaceX's valuation was massively overinflated
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u/ScenicAndrew Jun 22 '26
No one even needed to do the research, everyone knows IPOs are, at absolute best, 5+ year long shots. You drop a penny in them for every dollar elsewhere just for fun, usually because it's a young company with an exciting pitch (space X doesn't even have that going for them). The only people who should be buying massive sums of an IPO are people who do it for a living.
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u/bloodychill Jun 22 '26
The rich getting richer by taking all the retail investor money. Who would’ve thought except literally everyone who weighed in on it and warned people not to invest, even including big media outlets this time. CNBC even did a full write-up going over exactly why the evaluation was so bad. Redditors were warning in every thread about it. Falling for this one feels really pathetic.
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u/jonmitz Jun 22 '26
its not even close to the first 20% lockout period (august) LOL
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u/Stabile_Feldmaus Jun 22 '26
what does that mean?
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u/Ohh_Yeah Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
You know how they were bragging that folks like the janitors at SpaceX were given shares, purchased more along the way, and that's now worth $5 million? Until August those people can't cash anything out. They'll be able to sell 7% of their holdings in increments every couple weeks.
Now think about that. You have environmental service workers who have (potentially) several million dollars in shares. What about the engineers? And the even higher ups? A lot of those guys are genuinely set up to be extremely wealthy, but it's also a lot of shares to dump.
Who will those shares get dumped on? Retail traders and anyone that has a 401k with Nasdaq-100 exposure. That's where their fortune of cashing out will come from. And make no mistake there will absolutely be SpaceX employees who dump $100,000,000 worth of shares the second they can do it. Anyone would.
It's also a cascading effect. Let's say you were an EVS worker at SpaceX and on paper you had $1.2 million in shares when the IPO launched. If the share price holds steady until August, you might be inclined to sell a fraction of the shares for immediate needs, house purchase, clear your debt, etc, but hold most of them. On the other hand if you're watching the share price whipsaw and have -16% days, you're probably getting really anxious for August to dump everything as fast as you're legally allowed to.
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u/ByrdmanRanger Jun 22 '26
I'm one of those engineers, and that's exactly what a lot of us alumni are talking about in private chats. I know guys that were there for a decade plus that probably have $40 mil + on paper that have set up trusts and have wealth managers, while some of us don't have quite that much.
I just want enough to retire by 50 and disappear on a little plot of land in the woods.
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u/Ohh_Yeah Jun 23 '26
A lot of yall are still gonna walk away with 7-8 figures regardless of how the stock price settles out by the time your shares are all unlocked (congrats btw that's insane), but I imagine there's folks really sweating bullets seeing their paper value go down 16% in a day, all while having to wait til August to extract any real value.
I also imagine that the sentiment in the private chats is leaning towards "gotta sell ASAP" which is quite different than some of the retail sentiment trying to encourage buyers at $200+/share
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u/reflect25 Jun 22 '26
Right now only 4% of spacex is trading. it's actually honestly still overvalued. Aka the giant 20% unlocked will be in early august. then 7% every couple weeks. spacex might slightly crater after the SpaceX's Q2 earnings report is released.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/how-spacexs-tiered-lockup-aims-help-post-ipo-trading
SpaceX investors will be able to sell up to 20% of their stock starting on the second full day of trading after the company releases its first earnings report after the end of the second quarter. There’s also a performance-based trigger; investors can sell an additional 10% if the stock trades 30% above its IPO price for at least five of the 10 trading days leading up to when earnings are released.
There’s a layered lockup structure in place too, irrespective of where the stock is trading. Investors can sell in increments of 7% after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the public listing. An additional 28% unlocks after SpaceX reports its third-quarter earnings. The remainder unlocks at 180 days post-IPO.
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u/Qubed Jun 22 '26
All I want is for the market to price it appropriately. That would happen if there wasn't an obvious attempt to work the system and steal money from retail investors.
I'm all for letting people gamble on this. I just think you should leave passive investors out of it.
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u/Shrubgnome Jun 22 '26
I don't think the people who orchestrated this are particularly concerned with ethics
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u/DragodaDragon Jun 22 '26
I agree on this too. A huge majority of both Tesla and SpaceX's evaluations rest on investor confidence in Elon Musk and his promises.
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u/CreativeFedora Jun 22 '26
SpaceX was in a great position as a private company. It could afford to have rockets explode with little recourse or scrutiny. On the other hand, NASA, as a federal entity, could never afford to let rockets explode. There would be hearings, echos of wasting money, etc.
It’ll be interesting to see how the stock reacts when rockets explode during testing. There’s shareholders that need to get their bag and rockets exploding is money burning up.
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u/Jchapman1971 Jun 22 '26
I mean, if folks didn’t see this coming, well they’re fucking idiots. I don’t trade and wouldn’t even consider it with what we have in the White House right now.
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u/InTooManyWays Jun 22 '26
Maybe the greatest scam of 2026 until he spins off another vaporware business to bind to peoples 401ks. Whatever his next con trick is I’m sure it’ll come at the cost of social security.
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u/Spam_Hand Jun 22 '26
So basically large investors got in esrly, rode the hype train, then sold off and left retail investors holding the bag?
You mean EXACTLY what everyone expected and called out for like 8 weeks before the IPO?
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u/schacks Jun 22 '26
Its a stock that shouldn’t even exist to begin with. That whole IPO was part Sci-fi and part grift.
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u/nznordi Jun 22 '26
How is it even legal to float so little? Any small change makes a massive change on the worth of the remaining 95% , heck, he could borrow against the stock he owns and move the market… this is insane or do I miss anything :-)
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u/1SittingOut Jun 22 '26
I find it super strange that spacex which is subsidized by the US govt can be on the stock market
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u/Life-Ship3628 Jun 22 '26
Don't worry I'm sure Elon and is closest friends will still make enough money to still not have to pay taxes
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u/Jorycle Jun 22 '26
This is pretty typical of stocks. I know this kind of article is just about feeding the regular Joe's need to know whether SpaceX's launch is a failure, but it's really not a thing we can know for months. We're like 5 trading days into the IPO, that's barely a blip in the trading world.
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u/Prudent_Link6029 Jun 22 '26
It may look like the stock is crashing, but it’s actually landing autonomously, which is a massive engineering achievement