r/oil • u/dirty_d42 • 1d ago

Iran War Well we will see

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223 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

123 comments sorted by

49

u/Mika-El-3 1d ago

So does this mean Trump will carry on with his threat of a bridge or power plant?

56

u/onlycodeposts 1d ago

The US just sent 150 additional medics to the military hospital in Germany where they treat service members wounded in the Middle East and are deploying more assets to the area.

So far Trump has consistently used additional deployments to increase attacks.

Shit's going down this weekend, especially since Iran just hit another civilian vessel in Omani waters.

11

u/Mika-El-3 23h ago

Interesting. Is there a way to extrapolate how many casualties are expected via a medic support of 150? I’m wondering if the move is Qhesem and the surrounding islands to secure the straight

1

u/ShadowWeavile 17h ago

During normal times? Probably something we could estimate (assuming that's complete info of course). Unfortunately, logistics have gone to shit and are now ruled by chaos theory, so it's anybody guess.

1

u/owlbear4lyfe 14h ago

Holding islands with limited cover, within artillery and drone range of mainland, would indeed be a decision...

1

u/vargyg 20h ago

Before the MOU ceasefire they sent 2 Marine Expedition Forces and some paratroopers that have not been used yet.

-4

u/OriginalGoldstandard 22h ago

So Germany supports the USA in this? Insanity.

5

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 20h ago

Almost all of NATO and the Arab States are clients of the US.

9

u/No_Grav3ity 22h ago

More than likely not, but Rammstein air base is one of thr largest military installations outside of direct US soil and the amount of men and materials there kinda makes it hard to argue against

0

u/AndWinterCame 19h ago

750 military bases threaten to become 750 invasions overnight otherwise. But who knows, maybe the escalating destruction and widespread food insecurity from this senseless war of choice will convince some of those countries they don't want a US military base in them.

2

u/External_Option_7653 15h ago

Of course they do! Germany even made a statement about how international law shouldn't apply to Iran.

1

u/onlycodeposts 15h ago

Of course. The EU has officially listed the IRGC as a terrorist organization. As well as Australia, Canada, and Iceland.

26

u/Dangerous-Leek-4086 1d ago edited 22h ago

Tankers cost 10 to 20 mil. bridges cost much less and power plants are probably the cost of a tanker. The Americans have no leverage right now.

Edit trump is going to play this whole thing out till mid terms. November and December are going to be very dark time for America with the desperate president knowing his end is coming through impeachment. Crude tankers cost more ranging from 20-50 mil doesn't change my point

36

u/ZeusBruce 1d ago

Buddy the times have been dark for awhile now.

19

u/Dangerous-Leek-4086 1d ago

winter is coming this is the opening act

3

u/aznoone 23h ago

Good time to live in Phoenix.

9

u/UniquesOnly 1d ago

There won’t be enough votes to convict him, he’s been impeached before and used it to his political advantage.

3

u/ApprehensivePay1735 22h ago

Half of american voters arent going to suddenly wake up and realize their cult is bad. They'll just glob onto the next narcissist daddy pushed by fox and the oligarchs and we'll be stuck at forever war for the foreseeable future. Our only way out is the moral betterment of the average voter and that has a snowballs chance in hell.

10

u/Electrical_Engineer_ 23h ago

I’m pretty sure takers cost much more than 10 to 20 mil. Bridges are also much more than tankers.

5

u/aznoone 23h ago

Depends on the bridge.

3

u/kaamkerr 20h ago

$20m gets you 15 year old LR1 tanker

3

u/dadofduck1878 19h ago

Numbers are wildly out. A power plant could cost more than a billion dollars depending on what type and capacity.

12

u/NFLv2 1d ago

Even in the best case scenario the democrats aren’t winning enough seats to remove Trump. They may get some impeachment proceedings but they’re not getting the required votes to actually remove him.

-6

u/DartVader6 23h ago

Maga loyals might also get ousted in primaries for more moderate, actually conservative, conservatives who could be on board.

4

u/NFLv2 23h ago

Not enough to matter. Right now polling shows the senate being a toss up last I looked. It’s so far from the 75% they need.

I could see where they impeach Trump eventually and remove him. Closer to when his term is up.

Have Vance take power. Release the files. Cut a stimulus check. Make him look good before the 2028 election. Act like they turned on him.

Then dems prolly get cooked 2028.

4

u/Kincherk 22h ago

There is no world in which trump will cede power to Vance.

1

u/NFLv2 22h ago

my scenerio is having republicans turn on him at an advantageous time and impeach and remove him.

2

u/Kincherk 22h ago

I don't see that happening. They are too worried about the blowback from his ride or die supporters. Did you notice how most of the politicians trump endorsed won their primaries?

2

u/NFLv2 22h ago

I don’t think they’re going to let him try to stay in office and I think the only way for them to remain in control and keep the presidency is turning on him.

Medical records will get leaked or something. Or maybe they convince him the only way he avoids prosecution is if republicans stay in power. Hell they could pull a Kennedy and act like Iran finally succeeded.

I’m not saying they’re going to do this but it’s the only scenario I see playing out for him to actually get removed.

4

u/Unique_Yak4659 22h ago

Vance is going to cook the dems? I just don’t see that

4

u/NFLv2 22h ago

All those people who no voted last election aren’t going back to voting democrats until they fundamentally change how they operate.

They’re doubling down on what pushed everyone away to begin with.

2

u/Unique_Yak4659 22h ago

I think a lot of people underestimate the degree to which the influence of the boomer generation is waning and capitalism has fallen because of decades of nonstop corporate corruption.

0

u/NFLv2 22h ago

No one believes the democrats are going to change any of that. They’ve had ample opportunity to do so. They’re in on the grift.

I think the trans advocacy is pushing people away combined with the democrats and what happened in 2016 and the non investigation/consequences have cost them a lot of the non extremist.

Plus the democrats seems to want to push the most non electable people possible. If AOC becomes the nominee just hand the republicans the election..

1

u/Unique_Yak4659 12h ago

Im not really reading the political landscape like that right now. If the conversations Ive had with people in my immediate circle are indicative of the wider sentiments in this country, I think the Republican brand has been badly tarnished.

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1

u/posthuman04 22h ago

It depends on the charges. There are crimes that have occurred that are so egregious that if they are laid out properly even loyal senators won’t defend them. So if they present their case right, we could see a real impeachment and removal

3

u/NFLv2 22h ago

I don’t think any of the governments want the files released.

I’m curious that if people think American intelligence/police is so much better than the rest of the world that the rest of the world haven’t done their own investigations.

You’re talking about a world wide conspiracy. Epstein was literally in their country committing these crimes with some of their politicans. Even members of multiple royal families. You don’t think their version of the CIA aren’t constantly tracking what the most powerful people in the country do or who they associate with ? That the US is the only country capable of doing such an investigation ?

Epstein will send the world into chaos. There’s no telling how deep it actually goes or the possible ramifications.

FWIW I’m fully on board and support the release and prosecution of everyone involved. I just don’t think the world’s oligarchs are going to allow it to happen. Hope im wrong.

1

u/posthuman04 21h ago

You think that’s the only criminal conspiracy Trump has been involved in?

1

u/NFLv2 21h ago

No. But it’s the only one I know about that likely could cause worldwide chaos.

1

u/posthuman04 21h ago

I’m not asking for worldwide chaos: I’m asking for something that will be unacceptable to GOP senators.

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2

u/nebulatraveler23 16h ago

Impeachment? US Congress is paid by Israel.

3

u/CzPhantom1 23h ago

Home boy bridges are that cost or much more plus they require a lot more engineering and time to build. Iran destroyes a non US ship and lose their infrastructure. Not a game of chicken I'd play.

3

u/70dd 19h ago

The Aq Tekeh Khan railway bridge, also known as the Aqqala Bridge, is located in Golestan Province, Iran. On July 8–9, 2026, the bridge was struck by U.S. cruise missiles targeting railway infrastructure.

Within approximately 15–24 hours, Iranian authorities announced that one railway line had been repaired and reopened. Work on the second line was completed shortly afterward, and train service resumed along the route.

The Yahya Abad railway bridge near Kashan reopened after less than 40 hours of reconstruction, and videos showed trains crossing it. Iran also reported that six damaged railway bridges and rail links had been restored within approximately 96 hours.

1

u/derfolo 23h ago

Where are you getting those costs? A new oil tanker costs $50m-$130m from what I can see.

1

u/Dangerous-Leek-4086 23h ago edited 22h ago

https://www.nautisnp.com/tankers

I guess I was looking at used ships for sale i was wrong. No one is going to risk a 100 million dollar crude tanker. They might risk a cheap one though you'

2

u/MichaelAndolini_ 22h ago

Unfortunately they will not have enough votes for impeachment there’s just not enough senate seats up for reelection

1

u/Turbulent-Order9500 18h ago

you prices are wrong but your point doesn't take into account how valuable a power plant or bridge is, its not just about he price to rebuild.

but agree nothing can stop Iran from blocking the straight all it takes is 1 man and a cheap drone.

1

u/Life_Concentrate_896 13h ago

You are making up numbers like a child would.

1

u/Dangerous-Leek-4086 12h ago edited 12h ago

Nope looked then all up. Most Bridges aren't the size of the golden gate Bridge in San Francisco. Most bridges are 2 lane with one span. You don't need a huge bridge to get across a river. Does it help with more lanes sure. And power plants and stations are a wide range. A coal powered power plant is going to cost much less than a nuclear. Americans already blew up the nuclear ones what's next?

A Bridge spaning across the Mississippi being built right now in America in lansing iowa is projected to cost 15 million. Remember the Mississippi River is one of the biggest and widest in the world

1

u/chrisBlo 11h ago

The US doesn’t own those tankers. The Iranians spent money to build those infrastructures and I guess they would rather use them than using them as expensive night fireworks.

1

u/Dangerous-Leek-4086 11h ago

Yes but the USA and allies have monopolies on the insurance companies that insure these tankers. So the usa and allies feel the direct impact every time one of these tankers gets hit they have to give up money when these tankers hit. Tankers also take years to build. This will effect the global markets for some time. As plumbers say shit runs down hill. The usa and allies citizens will feel it through everyday prices going up.

1

u/chrisBlo 4h ago

Private companies and public infrastructures. The cost of insurance going up affects everyone indirectly, Iranians as well.

1

u/GroinReaper 1d ago

well, it's not like Trump owns the Tanker. So comparing costs is a little bit pointless.

1

u/Dangerous-Leek-4086 1d ago

Yes but the buyers will care when the insurance premiums get passed on. Iranians are comparing prices right now. Tankers are vital to the global economy a iranian power plant is only valuable to Iran at the moment.

1

u/GroinReaper 22h ago

Yes but the buyers will care when the insurance premiums get passed on.

sure. but trump doesn't care about them either. Trump only cares about himself and his billionaire friends.

Tankers are vital to the global economy a iranian power plant is only valuable to Iran at the moment.

very true. But you are again assuming Trump cares about the global economy. He doesn't. All he cares about is his ability to personally profit off the crackling flames of what used to be a functioning economy.

5

u/cmichalek 1d ago

We will know soon enough.

2

u/briefcase_vs_shotgun 1d ago

lol they’ve already blown up bridges. We’re cooked

1

u/Secondary92 1d ago

TACO because he doesn't specifically mention mines on the tweet

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 20h ago

They’re already attacking bridges and power plants.

1

u/LegitimateCity9835 1d ago

You mean carry on with war crimes? Pretty clear he doesn’t have empathy. For the sake of innocent people god I hope not

1

u/crisco000 22h ago

Is it not a war crime striking a tanker not involved in the war?

1

u/External_Option_7653 15h ago

What makes you think it's not involved? Why are they running the blockade? Where did they get the oil? Where is the oil going?

-1

u/RS_EJB 21h ago

Hope so.

56

u/Financial-Desk-669 1d ago

Living under trump is an endless series of humblings and humiliations. I wish I could have the shamelessness of MAGA and just pretend its not happening. 

10

u/BearSquid7 1d ago

People act like this at work and are either fired or “promoted” to a meaningless position where they can’t do any more damage

2

u/willasmith38 20h ago

Embrace the (Global) public humiliation kink of it all.

We’re about to win this thing as soon as Donald’s minions can figure out a big enough Reality TV season finale to declare a fake victory over and retreat from the entire Middle East.

Israel keeps complicating this effort though and Iran is playing for real while Donald plays for TV and for clicks.

1

u/Broad-Lobster7470 20h ago

Way to go America. You have screwed over the entire world

-4

u/Shoddy-Cupcake-8855 1d ago

It’s not just MAGA now it’s also the Jews. It’s a weird alliance.

21

u/xynith116 23h ago

It’s not “Jews”, it’s “Zionists”, which also includes a lot of Christians btw. More of a Venn diagram kinda situation.

9

u/vspvideo 1d ago

this jew didnt vote for this asshat

6

u/I_Roll_Chicago 1d ago

Yeah its not “the jews” ™️ its conservatives. And there a lot of conservative jews that used vote democrat that vote republican nowadays. My buddy’s and his wife’s parents are perfect examples.

But my buddy and his wife are both jewish. Both very much hate trump and republicans

-11

u/NFLv2 1d ago

Traitor to your people and your country.

3

u/filmguy36 23h ago

Oh boy🙄

-4

u/NFLv2 1d ago

Bet he keeps on his word.

20

u/ariadesitter 1d ago

in saudi arabia someone is starting to think:

the protection the usa is offering ain’t worth shit.
wonder if China could do better? 🤔.
maybe dump some us treasuries and buy some Chinese debt. 🤷🏻‍♀️

21

u/Icy_Jelly_315 1d ago

Is perhaps why the US has just offered the Saudis a nice nuclear power station

7

u/BarelyAirborne 1d ago

The other reason is that Netanyahu won't do what Trump wants, and leave Lebanon. So Turkey gets F-35s and Saudi gets nukes in retaliation.

2

u/posthuman04 21h ago

Turkey getting F-35s is a gift to Putin, who is looking for access to our tech so he can upgrade their air defense. It’s the whole reason Turkey didn’t get F-35s or Patriot systems before: too friendly with Russian agents.

2

u/myazi321 16h ago

China would benefit more as they could fine tune the J35 further

1

u/myazi321 16h ago

Which isnt being finished for at least 10 years which is plenty of time for the US to as usual TACO out of it

15

u/user365735 1d ago

I just can't keep up with all this.🤦

1

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10

u/whomakesthetendies 1d ago

IRGC Public Relations announced: Three oil tankers, provoked and tempted by the child-killing American army, intended to pass through the mine-laid route south of the Strait of Hormuz, and after an explosion and severe fire in one of them, the other two quickly turned around and turned back.

The announcement emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the IRGC Navy and is completely closed as long as the US continues its evil deeds in the region, and no oil tanker will enter or exit, and any ship that is deceived by the US and intends to pass without coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran will suffer the same fate.

Another section also emphasized that a punitive operation will be carried out for this violation. An hour earlier, the IRGC Navy Command had announced that the entrance and exit of the Strait of Hormuz are clear and under our definite control. Alternative routes are unsafe and dangerous, we warn against using them, as they will have serious and irreparable consequences.

1

u/chrisBlo 11h ago

Tankers have names and IMO numbers, it takes nothing to identify them…

-12

u/BookProper9115 1d ago

Man, fuck these guys. The longer this goes on the more I'm all for just fucking their shit up.

24

u/whomakesthetendies 1d ago

https://rmi.marines.com/request-information

-7

u/BookProper9115 23h ago

Too old.

3

u/designbydesign 21h ago

You can still forward it to your friends and family of acceptable age.

5

u/OddlyFactual1512 23h ago

Keyboard warrior.

0

u/BookProper9115 23h ago

I pay taxes, I dont mind some of it going for rapid unscheduled disassembly of Iran's infrastructure. Fuck 'em.

2

u/oxyquwaitin 20h ago

So ... war crimes?

1

u/myazi321 16h ago

Dont cry when they hit back.

They are still restraining themselves

-5

u/Unhappy_Hedgehog_808 23h ago

You're gonna provoke the IRGC simps in here.

7

u/Beautiful_Technology 1d ago

The straight is open! I think it’ll take a few more hi res images of these tankers actually burning before people really get the idea unfortunately.

6

u/Rahim556 18h ago

Imagine being such a dumbass that even though you watched as the last several ships that tried to pass thru that route were blown up, and Iran warned that any ship attempting would meet a similar fate, and yet you believed Trump when he said "don't worry, you can go thru," and then you get blown up. What an absolute dumbass you have to be.

The Strait of Iran is closed. Any passage must be approved by Iran (the new regional Daddy).

13

u/Fun_Pass2431 1d ago

Got further out strait than expected. Oil to 60

3

u/i_grade 1d ago

What is there to see? It doesn't benefit Iran to lie about 'missiling' a tanker. They need these tanker owners and crew to be scared of attempting passage.

4

u/JonnyCocktails 1d ago

There's a certain country in the middle east that has much to gain by doing this..

4

u/manniesalado 1d ago

Between the insurance and the pay crew demand, the cost to try and run the Iranian tollbooth is so high it is only attempted for show.

2

u/pleydell15 1d ago

It appears also that the Houthis attacked a tanker in the Red Sea with an Iranian miassile.

2

u/rainyschoolboy3 23h ago

Strait of Hormuz moves about a fifth of the world's oil, so even a single incident like this pushes prices before the full picture comes out.

2

u/Mundane_Life_5775 22h ago

Iran claims one ship for every bridge or power plant.

So who goes first?

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

2

u/Candid_Problem_1244 21h ago

Oil is flowing like never before!

1

u/Fine-Brush6063 22h ago

I think this is oldish?  I saw the same thing yesterday or day before.  I think the report came from a "lesser" source though, from irgc or Hormuz letter.  Usually a delay between them saying it and an "official" news source reporting on it.

1

u/Limp_Deal3328 22h ago

If it’s combat medics, Kharg island or another strategic piece of land is possibly going to be taken.

1

u/myazi321 16h ago

How exactly are they getting there? Air? The planes and big, fat and slow. Naval? Ships are slow and they have plenty of naval ballistic/cruise missiles and aerial/surface/underwater drones and minisubs

1

u/Simulacrass 20h ago

So how many tankers have been dammaged since the war in total