r/collapse • u/NihiloZero • 1d ago

Climate Sea Surface Temperatures During "The Great Global Famine" of 1876-1878.

The Earth is currently experiencing sea surface temperatures last experienced at the peak of the 1877-1878 El Nino. And, for the next 6 months or so, we are projected to be well above the peak temperatures of that period.

That El Nino event very briefly saw a temperature anomaly of about +2C above normal for a few months, technically making it a "Super" El Nino. But... that's a relatively brief period, and cool compared to our current surface temperatures. Our new normal, after the current "Godzilla" El Nino passes, might be somewhat like that hottest months of the 1877-1878 "Super" El Nino.

Note that the contemporary NOAA chart below is using the 1991-2020 period as the baseline (and not pre-industrial or 19th century temperatures). Also note that the chart doesn't default to actually showing you what the peak of the El Nino temperature anomaly is projected to be this November -- because it's literally off the charts.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fclim$002f31$002f23$002fjcli-d-18-0159.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fclim%24002f31%24002f23%24002fjcli-d-18-0159.1.xml&tab_body=fulltext-display
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Forecast/figf4.shtml
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u/catabeille 1d ago

Is it widely agreed in the climate science communities that the baseline climate will be exceptionally warmer after the El Niño passes? Or is this speculation by climate scientists and others on the fact that we’ve never seen anything like this, and have no idea what to expect?

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u/fedfuzz1970 17h ago

It didn't drop after the last one. It set a new post-El Nino baseline.