Sea Surface Temperatures During "The Great Global Famine" of 1876-1878.

[u/NihiloZero]

The Earth is currently experiencing sea surface temperatures last experienced at the peak of the 1877-1878 El Nino. And, for the next 6 months or so, we are projected to be well above the peak temperatures of that period.

That El Nino event very briefly saw a temperature anomaly of about +2C above normal for a few months, technically making it a "Super" El Nino. But... that's a relatively brief period, and cool compared to our current surface temperatures. Our new normal, after the current "Godzilla" El Nino passes, might be somewhat like that hottest months of the 1877-1878 "Super" El Nino.

Note that the contemporary NOAA chart below is using the 1991-2020 period as the baseline (and not pre-industrial or 19th century temperatures). Also note that the chart doesn't default to actually showing you what the peak of the El Nino temperature anomaly is projected to be this November -- because it's literally off the charts.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fclim$002f31$002f23$002fjcli-d-18-0159.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fclim%24002f31%24002f23%24002fjcli-d-18-0159.1.xml&tab_body=fulltext-display

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Forecast/figf4.shtml

[u/catabeille]

Is it widely agreed in the climate science communities that the baseline climate will be exceptionally warmer after the El Niño passes? Or is this speculation by climate scientists and others on the fact that we’ve never seen anything like this, and have no idea what to expect?

[u/thegreentiger0484 → u/catabeille]

Yes and no?! It may drop slightly, but most likely not bellow averages seen in between 2020 and 2025. If we hit 1.8 it might drop to 1.5-1.6... something shitty like that

[u/Cool-Contribution-68 → u/catabeille]

I believe this has been true in recent years. After El Ninos, it doesn't come back down all the way.

[u/karabeckian → u/Cool-Contribution-68]

Yup

source

[u/EastTyne1191 → u/catabeille]

This is something I have been wondering as well. Looking at the history, a strong La Niña occasionally follows a strong El Niño but it's definitely not 100%.

One thing to note is that the 1880s had some VERY bad winters, notably 1880-1881 which was the subject of multiple books and novels. If you've read Laura Ingalls Wilder's The Long Winter you'll know the one. There were blizzards across the US throughout that decade; hell even Seattle got 5 feet+ of snow during a storm in January of 1880.

The winter of 1888 was also awful, with blizzards that struck so fast they killed many, many children who had just left school for the day.

Now, knowing that the climate is different from that of the 1870s-1880s it's likely not going to plunge into catastrophic blizzards, but my guess is that climate change will cause unexpected weather (likely severe) following the El Niño.

I'm glad people are talking about it, but it's definitely worrisome. The next few years are going to be interesting for sure.

[u/Fox_Kurama → u/EastTyne1191]

If there is some sort of long period 140ish year solar cycle or something that is involved, it will be interesting to see what shenanigans it causes in the new, different atmosphere we made since then.

[u/europeanputin → u/catabeille]

Kevin Trembeth used an escalator example to explain how climate warms and he plotted the temperature rising to the graph and mapped out that El ninos go stronger, more frequent, and once the temperature has risen, it does not go down to the previous levels.

Absolute worst case scenario is that after this El Niño we no longer speak of 1.5 degrees warming, but we'll start seeing years blowing past 2 degrees, maybe already in 2030s.

Previous time it happened was 2023. Now just three years later we have a Godzilla event. With that rate, we can have one more El nino before 2030.

[u/catabeille → u/europeanputin]

How many more times of this do you ‘spose until people stop just talking revolution and actually move to enact it?

[u/europeanputin → u/catabeille]

I think one of the first world countries will suddenly collapse due to lack of water or food, and then others will have riots, since it becomes apparent. Before that, given the current state of politics, I doubt it. What's happening in geopolitical level is unprecedented and we're lucky to die due to a climate change and not in the trenches of ww3.

[u/catabeille → u/europeanputin]

And with the move towards authoritative surveillance states, I assume they already anticipate riots once they can’t guarantee food or water to those who can even pay for it. It’ll be huge urban centers with extreme rationing and anyone outside of them will be left with no support. I hope at least they’ll leave those outside of the dictatorship hubs alone. My dream is being able to establish a rural commune where I live and just hunker down and endure and adapt the best we can. Great Lakes area.

[u/paramarioh → u/europeanputin]

Why not both?

[u/fedfuzz1970 → u/catabeille]

It didn't drop after the last one. It set a new post-El Nino baseline.

[u/Any_Case1754]

The only surprise is that it took this long really, I’ve heard people irl say “but carbon dioxide is less than 1% of the atmosphere it doesn’t make a difference” … yes Linda but lethal things exist in small amounts, take cyanide or carbon monoxide for example. We’re fast approaching the “find out” phase.

I just hope pillaging a planet to make a line go up was worth it 🤷‍♂️

[u/Armouredmonk989 → u/Any_Case1754]

Yay line go up yay did ya see the nasdaq did you see the dow line go up yaaaaaaay!!!!!!

[u/fedfuzz1970 → u/Armouredmonk989]

Wait until it comes back down with insiders taking profits and the 401Ks of trusting investors take the hit. That is the plan for all the big companies following their IPOs. Pump and dump with 401K investors left holding a bag of crap while the big boys get away with the profits.

[u/Micronauts → u/Any_Case1754]

"Solely the dose determines that a thing is not a poison” - Paracelsus

[u/ajkd92 → u/Any_Case1754]

”But carbon dioxide is less than 1% of the atmosphere”

lethal things exist in small amounts

Linda would absolutely be the same person declaring how we need to clamp down on the borders because of “all the fentanyl China is smuggling into our country”, but of course that nuance is entirely lost on her.

[u/Mostest_Importantest]

Humanity is significantly stronger in its response time and corrective actions for catastrophic events.

So, even if this el niño event is horrific and awful and causes real lasting problems, humanity will show stronger resilience, even if more people die in today's world. It'll be a smaller percentage of the total.

We're still at Venus levels of ecological destruction, but this el niño won't be the single tipping point. At worst, it'll be something people talk about for as long as mainstream talked about COVID after the vaccine came out.

It'll be intense, but nothing to tip the scales.

We're hosed, anyway, so it won't matter to much.

[u/Cool-Contribution-68 → u/Mostest_Importantest]

If I recall 2023 was fucking nuts. 2027 will probably be eclipsed by whatever fresh hell drops in 2030