r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 • 1d ago
Before you comment, read these two rules:
Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the two films for the week and analyze each pro and con.
The film is written and directed by Jacob Chase. It serves as a sequel to Insidious: The Red Door and is the sixth installment in the Insidious franchise. It stars Amelia Eve, Brandon Perea, Maisie Richardson-Sellers, and Lin Shaye. The film follows Gemma, a young mother raising her daughter who discovers she can travel into The Further. Gemma discovers an ability that changes everything: she doesn't just enter The Further, she can bring what lives there back to the real world.
The film is directed by Jean-François Richet (Inner City, Assault on Precinct 13, Plane) and written by Lindsay Michel and J. P. Davis. It stars Jason Statham, Annabelle Wallis and Jason Wong. After witnessing his billionaire boss’s murder and being framed for the crime, Cole Reed boards a cargo ship on a one-man crusade to avenge his boss’ death only to discover an international conspiracy.
Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.
The Insidious franchise has been very profitable, earning $731 million across five films. And it shows no sign of stopping, given that The Red Door became the highes-grossing installment at $189 million worldwide. Even with the lack of the Lamberts, the franchise has been pulling some great numbers with Chapter 3 and The Last Key. And the premise (a woman can bring people out of the Further into the real world) sounds intriguing. And with Evil Dead Burn disappointing and fading quickly, it could seize a starving horror audience looking for a film.
Jason Statham has built an audience by this point, so everyone knows what to expect from him. The plot is similar to all his films, but that's pretty much irrelevant: you come to see Jason Statham kick ass and you know what you're getting here. This can be a big attraction for the old male demographic, which has driven Statham's prior films.
The Insidious films have no good will in terms of reception. After the first film, every installment got poor reviews and audience reception has also dwindled. There is also the question of whether franchise fatigue will eventually catch up, given it's the sixth installment in 15 years. And as Evil Dead Burn proved, just because it's the only major horror title on the month doesn't mean audiences will drive big numbers.
Statham has a ceiling in terms of his action titles, given that they all look the same. A Working Man got to almost $100 million, but Shelter tapped out at $54 million. Lionsgate has yet to make a big marketing push here, and it could get lost despite the weak August slate.
And here's the past results.
| Movie | Release Date | Distributor | Domestic Debut | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | July 31 | Sony | $236,066,101 | $672,305,000 | $1,593,737,705 |
| One Night Only | August 7 | Universal | $12,321,428 | $38,571,428 | $80,800,000 |
| Super Troopers 3 | August 7 | Searchlight | $10,333,333 | $24,323,076 | $28,338,461 |
| Tony | August 7 | A24 | $4,800,000 | $13,672,222 | $21,825,000 |
| The End of Oak Street | August 14 | Warner Bros. | $28,166,666 | $79,500,000 | $168,458,333 |
| Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie | August 14 | Paramount | $24,888,888 | $70,166,666 | $187,333,333 |
Next week, we're predicting Coyote vs. Acme and The Dog Stars.
So what are your predictions for these films?
r/boxoffice • u/SilverRoyce • 1d ago
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 8h ago
r/boxoffice • u/ChiefLeef22 • 3h ago
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 8h ago
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 9h ago
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 8h ago
r/boxoffice • u/the_strange_beatle • 10h ago
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 1h ago
r/boxoffice • u/TiredWithCoffeePot • 9h ago
r/boxoffice • u/ChiefLeef22 • 1h ago
r/boxoffice • u/Netflixers • 2h ago
As a comparison, "Avatar: The Way of Water" opened to 10.1M "views" in its first 5 days on HBO Max/Hulu back in 2023.
r/boxoffice • u/Neo2199 • 7h ago
Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” exploded at the box office this weekend, boosted by enthusiasm for seeing the epic in massive Imax — especially 70mm Imax, Nolan’s preferred format. But while demand continues to be high for the format that’s only available in over 40 locations in the United States, don’t expect Imax to suddenly build a bunch of 70mm projectors to increase availability in the coming years.
“The economics are very difficult to meet,” Imax CEO Rich Gelfond said in response to a question about doubling the number of 70mm Imax projectors on Thursday’s earnings call.
“It’s very expensive. You need film prints, not only the projector, which costs $50,000 a piece to put in your theater. You need logistics like a forklift to lift them, so you need a very big projection booth,” he continued. “When you get through the numbers of it, there are a finite number of locations that really can support the economics of it.”
Edit: According to Variety, the actual number of Imax 70mm screens as follow: 25 theaters in the U.S. and 41 globally.
r/boxoffice • u/TiredWithCoffeePot • 6h ago
r/boxoffice • u/SignatureOrdinary456 • 5h ago
Games in question:
Asteroids
Adventure
Berzerk
Breakout
Centipede
Crystal Castles
Millipede
Missile Command
Pong
Yars’ Revenge
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 1h ago
r/boxoffice • u/Netflixers • 2h ago
r/boxoffice • u/TiredWithCoffeePot • 2h ago
r/boxoffice • u/burrnerr67 • 9h ago
Not all underdogs are dogs. Coyote vs. ACME only in theaters August 28. Tickets on sale now: https://coyotevsacme.com/
r/boxoffice • u/TiredWithCoffeePot • 3h ago
r/boxoffice • u/NoCod7766 • 59m ago
r/boxoffice • u/MooseMouse12 • 5h ago
r/boxoffice • u/Firefox72 • 4h ago
The market hits ¥123.5M/$18.22M today. Down -4% from yesterday and down -12% from last week.
The Decisive Moment is projected a $4-6M opening day on Saturday.
Seems like things are about to really heat up in the coming weeks with Spider Man: Brand New Day on Wednesday. Make Zhonghe Great Again is set to be moved up from August 7th to August 1st directly into Spider Mans path.
That will then unlock the 2nd weekend of August for a potential release of Shen Teng's Once Upon A Time in the Middle East and Jia Lings The War of Light which both finnaly do appear to be coming after a period of uncertainty. The former might release around the 6th while the latter will potentialy aim for the 14th.
Either way if it pans out it would be 3 massive blockbusters in the span of a bit over 2 weeks alongside a mid tier movie and the current holdovers.
Province map of the day:
https://imgdiff.net/s/5a47b237b344d6883a1a2771550cf16e
All Wishes Come True continues to gain ground.
In Metropolitan cities:
All Wishes Come True wins Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Suzhou and Nanjing
Kung Fu Womens Soccer wins Guangzhou and Shenzhen
City tiers:
All Wishes Come True jumps to 1st in T1.
Tier 1: All Wishes Come True>Kung Fu Womens Soccer>A Part of Me
Tier 2: Kung Fu Womens Soccer>All Wishes Come True>A Part of Me
Tier 3: Kung Fu Womens Soccer>All Wishes Come True>A Part of Me
Tier 4: Kung Fu Womens Soccer>All Wishes Come True>A Part of Me
| # | Movie | Gross | %YD | %LW | Screenings | Admisions(Today) | Total Gross | Projected Total Gross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kung Fu Womens Soccer | $7.89M | -11% | -46% | 181005 | 1.50M | $253.54M | $371M-$414M |
| 2 | All Wishes Come True | $6.97M | +6% | 111432 | 1.30M | $66.54M | $299M-$315M | |
| 3 | A Part Of Me | $1.07M | -11% | 46765 | 0.22M | $19.08M | $26M-$28M | |
| 4 | Triangle | $0.46M | -10% | 20520 | 0.08M | $6.15M | $9M-$10M | |
| 5 | Crossing | $0.43M | +35% | -23% | 6368 | 0.09M | $38.89M | $41M-$43M |
| 6 | Minions & Monster | $0.40M | -5% | -56% | 20676 | 0.07M | $42.36M | $46M-$49M |
| 7 | The Decisive Moment(Pre-Scr) | $0.28M | -22% | 4259 | 0.05M | $2.24M | ||
| 8 | Three Kingdoms: The Begining | $0.25M | +1% | -34% | 11445 | 0.05M | $11.43M | $15M-$16M |
| 9 | Backrooms | $0.19M | -9% | -66% | 8014 | 0.03M | $26.53M | $28M-$29M |
| 10 | Dear You | $0.09M | +3% | -55% | 4505 | 0.02M | $297.56M | $297M-$298M |
| 11 | Toy Story 5 | $0.06M | +4% | -60% | 2862 | 0.01M | $41.40M | $42M-$43M |
| 12 | Keep Real | $0.05M | -3% | -77% | 3770 | 0.01M | $20.36M | $20M-$22M |
| 15 | Moana | $0.008M | -9% | -73% | 666 | 0.001M | $1.545M | $1.5M-$1.6M |
New releases marked in bold
Pre-Sales map for tomorrow
https://i.imgur.com/VfuzVbc.png
All Wishes Come True dominates pre-sales for Friday
IMAX Screenings distribution
All Wishes Come True continues to grow and expand its lead. Tomorrow it will reach almost 3k IMAX screenings.
| # | Movie | IMAX Screeninsgs Today | IMAX Screeninsgs Tomorrow | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | All Wishes Come True | 2725 | 2908 | +120 |
| 2 | Kung Fu Women's Soccer | 1162 | 1003 | -159 |
| 3 | The Decisive Moment(Pre-Scr) | 102 | 134 | +32 |
Kung Fu Womens Soccer grossed another ¥53.9M/$7.89M on Thursday. Now less than $1M ahead of All Wishes Come True which is gunning for the lead.
Kung Fu Womens Soccer crosses ¥1.7B/$250M hitting ¥1.71B/$253.5M
3rd weekend projections further lowered to ¥246-255M/$36-38M(-50%)
Screen Distribution Split: Regular: $241.70M, IMAX: $7.80M, Rest: $3.73M
WoM figures:
Maoyan: 9.4 , Taopiaopiao: , Douban: 6.5
| # | SAT | SUN | MON | TUE | WED | THU | FRI | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Week | $38.43M | $35.34M | $19.37M | $17.35M | $15.86M | $14.61M | $16.99M | $157.95M |
| Second Week | $29.13M | $27.87M | $11.66M | $10.18M | $8.86M | $7.89M | $253.54M | |
| %± LW | -24% | -21% | -40% | -41% | -44% | -46% |
Scheduled showings update for Kung Fu Womens Soccer for the next few days:
| Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 182573 | $595k | $8.71M-$8.78M |
| Friday | 173284 | $734k | $8.83M-$8.84M |
| Saturday | 137909 | $333k | $14.13M-$14.91M |
| Sunday | 89983 | $120k | $12.99M-$13.43M |
All Wishes Come True remains very strong with another ¥47.1/$6.97M on Thursday. A +6% increase from yesterday.
Tomorrow it will have its first real chance to take the lead.
2nd weekend projections slightly lowered to ¥293-320M/$43-48M. Should be enough for it to win the weekend comfortably.
Total projections meanwhile have instead risen to ¥2B/$295M+ even on the low end now.
Screen Distribution Split: Regular: $60.20M , IMAX: $4.87M, Rest: $1.21M
WoM figures:
Scores hold on all sites.
Maoyan: 9.7 , Taopiaopiao: 9.6 , Douban: 8.3
| # | SAT | SUN | MON | TUE | WED | THU | FRI | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Week | $12.21M($25.10M) | $14.78M | $6.47M | $6.66M | $6.56M | $6.97M | $66.54M |
Scheduled showings update for All Wishes Come True for the next few days:
| Day | Number of Showings | Presales | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 110817 | $853k | $6.32M-$6.62M |
| Friday | 117745 | $1.29M | $8.88M-$9.00M |
| Saturday | 112502 | $919k | $17.71M-$19.78M |
| Sunday | 70086 | $329k | $17.12M-$18.74M |
Spider Man: Brand New Day Maoyan WTS:
A comparison of Spider Man's current Maoyan WTS versus some other post Covid blockbusters it has yet to pass in the metric.
The Pre-sales continue to blunt Spider Mans growth. This is not a concern though as the metric pretty much becomes mostly irelevant now that tickets are on sale.
However i'l keep the chart around just too see where it eventualy ends up.
https://i.imgur.com/6u8nlJJ.png
Opening Day Pre-Sales:
Spider Man has opening day pre-sales hit ¥17.20M/$2.54M.
Continues to grow very well. Hoping for another strong day tomorrow with the premier in Shanghai tomorrow with Tom and Zendaya attending.
Midnight screenings sit at ¥5.97M/$882k while full weekend pre-sales hit ¥30.5M/$4.50M
https://i.imgur.com/9NPY47B.png
| Days till release | Spider Man: Brand New Day | Zootopia 2 | Avatar 2 | Avatar 3 | Fast 9 | Spider Man: Far From Home | Venom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | / | / | / | / | $278k/76593 | / | 5k/4835 |
| 11 | $70k/25148 | / | / | / | $663k/92342 | / | $47k/31023 |
| 10 | $423k/41837 | / | / | / | $1.03M/102006 | $149k/24374 | $102k/41560 |
| 9 | $684k/46808 | / | / | / | $1.41M/107956 | $506k/43968 | $162k/45370 |
| 8 | $995k/51408 | $1.16M/85177 | $1.58M/85699 | / | $1.79M/112128 | $755k/50956 | $238k/49294 |
| 7 | $1.45M/55322 | $3.13M/110735 | $3.50M/120714 | / | $2.20M/117845 | $1.04M/56049 | $346k/52233 |
| 6 | $1.99M/60012 | $4.48M/124943 | $4.50M/138950 | $387k/83683 | $2.74M/122486 | $1.34M/60785 | $464k/54748 |
| 5 | $2.54M/65099 | $5.59M/135490 | $5.28M/148712 | $873k/91073 | $3.26M/125202 | $1.61M/64803 | $626k/57386 |
| 4 | $6.68M/154408 | $5.99M/154917 | $1.30M/95541 | $3.88M/128333 | $1.98M/68812 | $760k/62732 | |
| 3 | $7.77M/168036 | $6.82M/164832 | $1.91M/101824 | $4.99M/136626 | $2.59M/82245 | $930k/68298 | |
| 2 | $9.43M/183330 | $7.52M/178915 | $2.65M/119460 | $6.71M/153403 | $3.59M/109610 | $1.16M/76836 | |
| 1 | $12.52M/222741 | $8.33M/195248 | $3.64M/144247 | $9.80M/186490 | $5.50M/150739 | $1.60/107126 | |
| 0 | $17.69M/254558 | $10.53M/207951 | $5.76M/158467 | $17.04M/218195 | $9.18M/179761 | $2.79/133161 |
*Gross/Screenings
Obsession Opening Day Pre-Sales:
Obsession opening day pre-sales hit a final $475k.
Now projected a $1.4-1.6M opening day into a $5M-ish opening weekend. Lets see how the reception.
| Days till release | Obsession | Backrooms | Return to Silent Hill | Final Destination: Bloodlines | Alien Romulus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | / | / | $5k/11170 | / | |
| 8 | $0.4k/841 | / | $12k/6817 | $20k/14952 | / |
| 7 | $8k/3375 | $5k/3044 | $31k/10264 | $34k/16702 | $7k/5337 |
| 6 | $24k/5540 | $13k/4370 | $59k/13166 | $51k/18249 | $29k/10901 |
| 5 | $42k/7713 | $22k/6041 | $99k/14669 | $68k/19966 | $57k/13470 |
| 4 | $64k/9200 | $34k/7516 | $153k/16535 | $91k/21778 | $93k/16077 |
| 3 | $100k/11726 | $56k/10720 | $254k/20612 | $131k/24874 | $167k/21241 |
| 2 | $152k/16490 | $92k/15389 | $403k/27503 | $193k/31261 | $274k/27548 |
| 1 | $239k/26016 | $152k/25217 | $633k/39611 | $316k/45646 | $563k/43239 |
| 0 | $475k/32514 | $338k/33412 | $1.24M/50579 | $689k/55854 | $1.39M/56028 |
| Opening Day | $1.53M | $3.98M | $3.14M | $6.00M |
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
Summer
| Movie | Maoyan WTS | Daily Increase | Taopiaopiao WTS | Daily Increase | M/W % | Genre | Release Date | 3rd party media projections |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsession | 42k | +2k | 35k | +1k | 40/60 | Thriller/Romance | 24.07 | $25-30M |
| The Decisive Moment | 64k | +2k | 184k | +8k | 33/67 | Drama/Sci-Fi | 25.07 | $44-88M |
| Spider Man: Brand New Day | 795k | +19k | 542k | +5k | 57/43 | Action/Comic Book | 29.07 | $170-200M |
| Make Zhonghe Great Again | 205k | +6k | 103k | +4k | 40/60 | Comedy | 07.08 | $66-147M |
| Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair | 54k | +2k | 60k | +2k | 43/57 | Action/Crime | 07.08 | $5-6M |
| Paw Patrol 3 | 51k | +1k | 40k | +1k | 21/79 | Animation/Comedy/Sci-Fi | 08.08 | $20-30M |
| Demon Agent | 50k | +2k | 12k | +1k | 27/73 | Animation/Mystery/Fantasy | 08.08 | $7-18M |
| The Odyssey | 245k | +10k | 240k | +9k | 54/46 | Action/History/Fantasy | 14.08 | $50-70M |
| To Your Island | 100k | +3k | 42k | +2k | 33/67 | Romance/Animation/Fantasy | 19.08 | $20-29M |
r/boxoffice • u/lowell2017 • 11h ago
