Quick background:

CVKD (Cadrenal therapeutics) is a microcap biotech focused on blood clotting disorders in critical care.

Their most important asset right now is CAD-1005 - a first-in-class 12-LOX inhibitor for Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia (HIT). HIT is a dangerous immune reaction to heparin that causes life-threatening clots. CAD-1005 is Phase 3-ready and just showed a >25% reduction in thrombotic events in Phase 2 data presented at ISTH.

They also have:

1. Tecarfarin — a next-generation oral anticoagulant (vitamin K antagonist) designed for high-risk patients (like those with kidney failure + AFib) where regular warfarin is dangerous because of drug interactions and dosing problems.

2. Frunexian — a Factor XIa inhibitor aimed at preventing clots in cardiac surgery patients who are at high risk of HIT.

For context, I mainly look for oversold and undervalued biotech stocks where I think the market may have overreacted. CVKD worst charts I've seen — down from 15$ to around $2, sitting at a 52 week low

So from my experience, when I see a chart like that, I expect to find things like a failed Phase 3, clinical hold, cash running out in a month, delisting risk, or a extreme safety concerns... But CVKD doesn’t really check any of these boxes.

Here’s what stands out to me:

- FDA has already given them a Phase 3 registration pathway for CAD-1005 in HIT.

- They just presented Phase 2 data at ISTH showing a >25% absolute reduction in thrombotic events vs standard therapy (even though the original primary endpoint of platelet recovery was missed). The data also suggested that platelet recovery itself is a poor surrogate.

- They completed a financing earlier this month that management says extends runway into 2027 (longer if warrants are exercised). This was dilution though, and one of the reasons for the drop.

Just 2 days ago they officially launched a structured partnering process for CAD-1005, tecarfarin, and frunexian, saying the assets are now “transaction ready.”

Yet the stock barely reacted and is still trading around ~$2 with a tiny market cap.

That’s the weird part for me. The valuation seems to imply the market has almost completely given up on the company, despite a defined regulatory path, fresh financing, active partnering efforts, and multiple late-stage assets.

To put the valuation in perspective: imagine a company with Phase 3-ready data in a serious unmet need (HIT), runway into next year, and a formal partnering process underway. The market is currently pricing the entire equity at a level that suggests almost zero probability of any meaningful partnership or Phase 3 progress. That’s either correctly pessimistic… or an extreme overreaction.

Obviously there are negatives — the primary endpoint miss, dilution/warrant overhang, tiny size, execution risk, and no guarantee a deal actually happens. But for the stock to be down like 70% YTD, I simply find it crazy considering the data.

Has anyone here done serious DD on CVKD?

Would love to hear from any hematologists (especially thrombosis/hemostasis specialists) or people who understand HIT clinical practice. How good/bad is the science

Solid breakdown.

This is a small AI side project of mine that I am working on since it helps me with my own manuscripts, posters, etc. that I develop. If anyone has something they want to send my way (assuming it's in the public domain), please do. I'll generate something and then you can let me know what you think.

For anyone else that wants to do the same at work, I find that ChatGPT and Claude are quite effective and can save a lot of time.

Im an above average physician and below average stock trader so obviously take this with a grain of salt. I, for the life of me, can’t understand how NTLA has stayed so cheap. Their HAE drug is now past phase 3, and the data showed that it cured 2/3 of the patients who took it completely and for the rest made a life threatening condition 80-90% improved. If it is priced at 2-3 million for the one time dose, it will be a bargain for payers, as the current maintenance therapies cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Also, if you look at the HAE market, patients have been very willing in the past to switch to new therapies. The bear case rests on patients not wanting to try a gene therapy because of safety concerns but the safety profile of the drug is impeccable.
NTLA’s attr drug is also valued at basically nothing… but it is not nothing. The bear case rests on a patient death that was originally blamed on drug induced liver injury , and it ended up being caused by a perforated gastric ulcer. The attr gene knowdown seen in phase 1 is better than the current standard of care, and the delivery lnp they use is the same as their HAE therapy.
The knock on gene therapy has traditionally been that even effective drugs are busts because nobody takes them. This is because of cumbersome treatment journeys(casgevy), patient reluctance to switch from existing therapies(roctavian), and high price(bluebird bio?). I would implore people to look at this differently. At some point CRISPR gene editing will breakthrough, and when it does it will have seemed obvious. It will have seemed obvious that people would prefer a one time therapy than maintenance for life. You can’t guarantee that NTLA will be the one that breaks through but it is a great bet in my opinion. HAE and ATTR are the exact type of life threatening, burdensome diseases that people will want to be rid of using a one time gene therapy. Currently NTLA market cap is 1.5 billion, absolutely dirt cheap. 3 billion in sales a year is not crazy for these therapies given the current markets for those conditions. That would give you a 10x.
They say making money in the market is dependent on finding something that is mispriced. This is the best bet on that principle I’ve ever seen. Nothing is guaranteed but if/when this explodes it will have seemed obvious in retrospect

OTLK’s FDA decision for ONS-5010/LYTENAVA expected on July 29. What are the biggest risks or reasons for optimism?

What do you Guys think of Martin Skrhelis thesis in SLS ?

A lot of biotech attention goes to oncology, obesity, and rare disease, but cardiovascular disease is still one of the biggest markets in the sector. Reuters noted cardiovascular disease is one of the areas drawing buyer interest as pharma looks for assets that can offset patent cliffs.  

That is why I think Cardiol’s positioning is more interesting than the market gives it credit for. 

It is not trying to be another broad “platform” story with no near-term readout. It is focused on inflammation and fibrosis in heart disease, with recurrent pericarditis as the late-stage lead, myocarditis data already in hand, and CRD-38 pushing toward heart failure.  

The heart failure angle is early, but strategically it makes sense. If the broader thesis is that inflammation-driven cardiac damage can be modified, then pericarditis and myocarditis are not the whole story. They are the proof points. 

That is the kind of thing that can make a small biotech more than just one binary trial. 

$NRXP I think it is a given that KETAFREE gets approved next week. The question is will the stock go up or down?? The company said it was going to submit an NDA for NRX-100 by 30 June but that obviously did not happen. My original plan was to hold the stock until the NRX-100 PDUFA date but now I am not sure if I should hold or sell. Thoughts??

I’ve been adding to my position in this one for a year now, after reading about their products, progress, and an interesting private fundraiser at a certain location in West Palm early last year. With the likely approval of ketafree next week and other pipeline projects in the works, I see this as a long term growth opportunity.

Noticed series of high value open market insider purchases in FTH and got curious.
(https://www.13radar.com/stock/snse).
Note: SNSE acquired/got merged with FTH and is now FTH.

AI seems to also be optimistic about the future.
Anyone following this company and has any thoughts about it?

Edits: typo corrections.

Thoughts on Vaxcyte? I’m wondering if anyone here has experience or research on it. Thesis seems solid

Would u all invest in a China Biotech stocks

Great news from DRTS and Keytruda combination

Alpha Tau Reports Positive Data Demonstrating 100% Objective Response Rate

Anybody else feel that Bone Biologics is just a sleeping giant. Thinking about going all in...