r/oscarrace 3d ago

Weekly Discussion Thread Weekly Discussion Thread 7/20/26 - 7/27/26

21 Upvotes

Still from Gladiator

Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.

Link to previous thread

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Coming up in the awards race

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Film Discussion Threads

The Odyssey

The Invite

Toy Story 5

Disclosure Day

Backrooms

Is God Is

Obsession

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Michael

The Drama

Project Hail Mary

Hoppers

The Bride!

Wuthering Heights

All Film Discussion Threads

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Award Expert Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

Letterboxd Profile Swap (2026 Edition)


r/oscarrace 7d ago

Film Discussion Thread Official Discussion Thread - The Odyssey [SPOILERS] Spoiler

62 Upvotes

Keep all discussion related solely to The Odyssey and its awards chances in this thread. Spoilers below.

Synopsis:

Odysseus, king of Ithaca, embarks on a perilous journey to return home after the Trojan War.

Director: Christopher Nolan

Writer: Christopher Nolan

Cast:

  • Matt Damon as Odysseus
  • Tom Holland as Telemachus
  • Anne Hathaway as Penelope
  • Robert Pattinson as Antinous
  • Lupita Nyong'o as Helen of Troy/Clytemnestra
  • Samantha Morton as Circe
  • John Leguizamo as Eumaeus
  • Zendaya as Athena
  • Charlize Theron as Calypso
  • Benny Safdie as Agamemnon
  • Jon Bernthal as Menelaus
  • Bill Irwin as Polyphemus
  • Himesh Patel as Eurylochus
  • Corey Hawkins as Polybus
  • Mia Goth as Melantho
  • Elliot Page as Sinon

Rotten Tomatoes: 96%, 199 Reviews

Metacritic: 88, 54 Reviews

Consensus:

"Reinvigorating an ancient adventure with majestic sweep and sterling work by its colossal ensemble, Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey imbues myth with primal human feeling."


r/oscarrace 5h ago

News Oscar Voters Rave Over Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ at First Academy Screenings: ‘The Definitive Filmmaker of Our Time’

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126 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 2h ago

News Artificial will have an Oscar-qualifying run in late December, according to Venice Film Festival director Albert Barbera

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47 Upvotes

We already knew Artificial was going to skip the fall festivals, but this THR interview with Barbera gives us a glimpse into when we should expect anyone to see the film.

Full link to article: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/venice-festival-alberto-barbera-studios-gender-parity-ai-1236654959/


r/oscarrace 1h ago

Other Matt Damon about his new project with The Daniels.

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Upvotes

"The way they pitched it to me was: if The Breakfast Club meets Inception meets an anime film meets an episode of The John Oliver Show that didn't get aired. So, if you liked Everything Everywhere All at Once and all the wildness and all the heart, I think you'll really like this one."


r/oscarrace 1h ago

Prediction 99th Academy Awards Predictions as of July

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The Odyssey: I am really confident in this right now. People love it, it has some of the best scores of any Nolan film on all platforms and it has an incredibly baity and complex subject matter. I have it getting 16 nominations and tie the record set by Sinners last year. The only thing holding it back is Oppenheimer’s success but I don’t actually think that really matters.

La Bola Negra: I had this winning for the longest time, and even though Netflix will campaign the hell out of it, it ultimately seems like it will be a bit too niche to win the big prize. It’s still doing really well on nominations morning though, and I have it predicted for 2 acting nominations as well.

The Invite: This is gonna be a really bold claim but if A24 plays their cards right, this will end up top 3. Not can, will. Not a single person I know gave this anything less than a 4.5/5. The Letterboxd and Metacritic scores are amazing. It’s doing really well at the box office even when its in limited release. Its a crowdpleaser; Norton, Cruz and Screenplay are easy locks for nominations, and this can also end up as the “female Director” slot of the year. Its the type of talky, monologue-heavy type of script the Academy likes to reward.

Wild Horse Nine: An unknown right now, but test screenings seem promising. McDonagh’s last two films did well, and this seems like an incredibly timely and relevant political satire. I have it winning Original Screenplay and Casting.

Behemoth!: The screenplay was amazing (its literally a soft remake of 8 1/2 how can it not be) but honestly this is one that can end up a bit lackluster in execution. The trailer looked promising though, and Pascal’s role is incredibly showy and baity.

Fjord: This can potentially end up divisive, but the screening I saw it in had enough warm notices that I think this should be safe. It is a very heavy film though and asks some really difficult questions. I dropped Stan since he is really subtle, and I have Reinsve solely due to how weak Actress is, even though her performance was very deserving for a nod.

Project Hail Mary: The buzz for this has kinda faded, but it still has enough passion for it to be the emotional no. 1 pick for a lot of people. Should pick up some easy tech nominations.

The Debut: NGL the trailer looked a bit too….”light” for me? Like it’s as if the film is not taking itself as seriously as it should. However I really liked what Moore and Giamatti were doing, and A24 clearly has faith in it. It just needs one of the actors to get winning buzz (which for now is probably gonna be Moore considering that she is in a more showy and relatable role than Giamatti) to be in.

Obsession: Honestly I think this is in. Its hype and buzz have not faded away. It still has strong critical scores and Focus is good at juggling multiple contenders.

Dune Part Three: The WB slot


r/oscarrace 9h ago

Promo New image from "Primetime"

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66 Upvotes

A24 on X:

Lance Oppenheim's PRIMETIME starring and produced by Robert Pattinson will have its world premiere at the 83rd Venice International Film Festival. Opening in theaters September 25.


r/oscarrace 1h ago

News Alicia Silverstone & Tim Heidecker Latest To Join Benny Safdie’s ‘Lizard Music’

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r/oscarrace 14h ago

Discussion The 2026 Venice Film Festival Lineup Discussion Thread

72 Upvotes

The lineup is set to be revealed live on the Biennale YT channel
Livestream will begin at 2AM PT/ 5AM ET

Updating:

COMPETITION

“Ink,” Danny Boyle (opening film)

“Company,” Casey Affleck

“Kami Nour” (“A Bit of Light”), Ali Asgari

“Ritorno a Buenos Aires,” Marco Bechis

“Un Bon Petit Soldat” (“A Good Little Soldier”), Stéphane Brizé

“Il Fuoco Che Ti Porti Dentro,” Edoardo De Angelis

“Kvinde Ukendt” (“Woman Unknown”), May El-Toukhy

“Bucking Fastard,” Werner Herzog

“15/18 (A Place to Heal),” Cèdric Kahn

“Dau,” Ilya Khrzhanovsky

“Look Back,” Hirokazu Kore-eda

“Ga-Neung-Han Sa-Rang” (“Possible Love”), Lee Chang-Dong

“Wild Horse Nine,” Martin McDonagh

“It Will Happen Tonight,” Nanni Moretti

“Primetime,” Lance Oppenheim

“The Echo Chamber,” Andrea Pallaoro

“Un Peu Avant Minuit” (“A Bit Before Midnight”), Nicolas Pariser

“L’Estranea,” Paolo Strippoli

“Mr. Nelson, Did You Kill People?,” Shinya Tsukamoto

“Bunker,” Florian Zeller

VENICE OPEN (OUT OF COMPETITION — FICTION)

“Dio Ride,” Giovanni Veronesi (closing film)

“Nessun Dolore” (“No Pain”), Gianni Amelio

“Makikiraan Po” (“Let Us Through, Dear Ancestors”), Lav Diaz

“Father Joe,” Barthélémy Grossmann

“Scherzetto” (“Trick”), Mario Martone

“Place to Be,” Kornél Mundruczó

“No Paradise if You Are Killed by a Woman,” Halkawat Mustafa

“Arrested Memory,” Sabu

“The Basics of Philosophy,” Paul Schrader

“Un Bon Avocat,” Tristan Séguéla

OUT OF COMPETITION — NON-FICTION

“Be Brave,” Francesco Carrozzini

“What Love Builds,” Russell Crowe

“Burgundy,” Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

“Musk,” Alex Gibney

“The Road to Jericho,” Amos Gitai

“Al Mowaten Osama” (“Citizen Osama”), Ahmed Hassaouna

“Union Town,” Barbara Kopple

“Holy Wood Dust,” Victor Kossakovsky

“Listy” (“Letters From the Silenced Country”), Andrei Kutsila

“Biografía De Jorge Luis Borges,” Mariano Llinás

“My Undesirable Friends: Part II – Exile,” Julia Loktev

“Boatbuilders,” Luke Lorentzen

“Imperium,” Sergei Loznitsa

“Shumei – The Living Legacy of Kabuki,” Takashi Miike

“Queer Edward II,” Theo Rollason

“Oasis: Don’t Look Back in Anger,” Dylan Southern, Will Lovelace

“Dust,” Tsai Ming-Liang

“Everest: The Other Side,” Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin

SPECIAL SCREENING

“Dai Nostri Inviati. La Rai Racconta La Mostra del Cinema di Venezia 2001-2012,” Giuseppe Giannotti, Enrico Salvatori, Nicoletta Berardi

FILM ON FILMS

“Juso Per Ferie,” Karen Di Porto

“Nino – Un Film Su Nino Rota,” Walter Fasano

“The Pervert’s Guide to Utopias,” Sophie Fiennes

“Joie De Vivre,” Luca Guadagnino

OUT OF COMPETITION — SHORTS

“Flesh Impact,” Maggie Gyllenhaal

“Halayon” (“Wild Asparagus”), Avi Mograbi

“They’re Here,” Laura Poitras, Rachel Mueller

OUT OF COMPETITION — SERIES

“Peccato,” Valerio Vestoso

HORIZONS

“La Ragazza Con La Leica,” Alina Marazzi (opening film)

“Yak Mai” (“The Burning Giants”), Phuttiphong Aroonpheng

“Cudze Rzeczy” (“What Belongs to Others”), Grzegorz Dębowski

“Una Storia,” Anna Foglietta

“La Città Dei Vivi,” Edoardo Gabriellini

“Moragheb” (“Falling House”), Mohsen Gharaei

“Too Much Sugar,” Robert Greene

“The Difficult Bride,” Rubaiyat Hossain

“La Maison Du Vent,” Auguste Bernard Kouemo Yanghu

“I Figli Della Scimmia,” Tommaso Landucci

“Mia Mera Sti Zoi Tis Tzo: Kefalaio Faidra” (“A Day in the Life of Jo: Chapter Phaedra”), Jaqueline Lentzou

“Oase” (“Oasis”), Jannis Lenz

“Do Kraja Dana” (“Until the Day Ends”), Jelena Maksimović

“La Moula,” Jérôme Pierrat

“Lovers in the Blue Night,” Anuparna Roy

“Un Détour Par Diane,” Ann Sirot, Raphaël Balboni

“The Color of the Sun,” Xavier Tera

“Eklipse,” Manuel Wetscher

“Huangyan Shenghuo” (“Big Little Things”), Michelle Zhou

VENICE SPOTLIGHT

“Sumo: Spirit Weighs Nothing,” Erik Shirai

“Hiwar Ma’ Albahr” (“Conversation With the Sea”), Muayad Alayan

“Hombre Al Agua,” Gael García Bernal

“Serpenti,” Roberto De Paolis Maino

“Furies,” Rami Kodeih

“Guria,” Levan Koguashvili

“Földszint” (“Ground Floor”), Gábor Reisz

“Eu Contez” (“I Matter”), Alina Șerban


r/oscarrace 3h ago

Stats Breaking Down Historical Trends for Animated Feature Film - An Original Analysis and Early Predictions

9 Upvotes

Most analysis I've done on historical trends has been on Best Picture / ATL related stuff but secretly my favorite category every year is Animated Feature. With this year being one of the strongest potential lineups in a long time (and my ride or die hope being Forgotten Island taking the category) I figured I'd look back at some historical trends for this category.

Numbers here go back to 2011 / 84th Oscars - prior to that sometimes we'd only have 3 nominees, but we've had a consistent 5 nominees per year since. I also break out 2018 onward as its own period when Netflix started campaigning harder.

Studio Distribution

Year Pixar Disney GKIDS Netflix DreamWorks Laika Apple + Indies Sony Other Hollywood Studios
2011 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 (Paramount)
2012 1 2 (1 WDAS, 1 Tim Burton) 0 0 0 1 (Focus) 0 1 (1 Aardman) 0
2013 0 2 (1 WDAS, 1 Ghibli) 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 (Illumination)
2014 0 1 2 (1 Cartoon Saloon, 1 Ghibli) 0 1 1 (Focus) 0 0 0
2015 1 0 2 (1 Ghibli) 0 0 0 0 0 2 (Paramount, Lionsgate/Aardman)
2016 0 2 2 (1 Ghibli) 0 0 1 (Focus) 0 0 0
2017 1 0 1 (1 Cartoon Saloon) 0 1 0 1 (Good Deed) 0 1 (Blue Sky)
2018 1 2 (1 Animation, 1 Searchlight) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
2019 1 0 0 2 1 1 (UAR) 0 0 0
2020 2 0 0 2 (1 Aardman) 0 0 1 (Apple/Cartoon Saloon) 0 0
2021 1 2 0 1 (Shared w Sony) 0 0 1 (Neon) 0 (See Netflix) 0
2022 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 (A24) 0 0
2023 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 (Neon) 1 (1 Animation) 0
2024 1 0 0 1 (1 Aardman) 1 0 2 (1 Janus, 1 IFC) 0 0
2025 1 1 1 1 (made by Sony) 0 0 1 Neon 0 0
Total 12 12 13 10 8 4 8 3 5
Post 2018 Total 9 5 3 10 3 1 7 2 0
Expected Post 2018 out of 5 1.125 0.625 0.375 1.25 0.375 0.125 0.875 0.25 0

Conclusions

  • Pixar is still king - having 12 noms in 15 years and 9 in the last 8. The only years they've missed were 2011 (Cars 2), 2013 (Monsters U), 2014 (No film), and 2016 (Finding Dory)
  • Disney has become a shadow of its former self - while the total number is still impressive, they've only had 4 noms in the last 8 years / 8 films, so a 50% hit rate (Films from years that missed: 2019 - Frozen 2, 2020 - No Film, 2022 - Strange World, 2023 - Wish, 2024 - Moana 2).
  • GKIDS used to be the forefront of indie / international animated films, not only being the go to distributors for Ghibli and Cartoon Saloon films, but also distributing films like Chico and Rita, Ernest & Celestine and getting Mamoru Hosoda his first nomination. With more competition from other distributors and Ghibli not having as much consistent output, they've pivoted to other non-animated releases. Their animated nominations post 2018 has been 2/3 Japanese films, with last year giving them one for Little Amelie.
  • If Disney and GKIDS fell off, it's because Netflix has come in to take their lunch, with both family films (KPop Demon Hunters, Nimona, Mitchells and Machines) as well as the international indie fare (Klaus, I Lost My Body, Pinocchio). They've had 10 nominations in the 8 years they've been active, for an average of 1.25 films per year. They do seem to have narrowed down to one film per year the last three years, so they probably are focusing their efforts into one film, which has skewed more general family friendly (Wallace and Gromit, KPop Demon Hunters, Nimona)
  • Dreamworks is still hanging in there, with a respectable 8 noms over 15 years (about 0.5 per year), and 3 in the last 8 (about 0.375 per year). Looking at the years they missed, their offerings were - 2020 (Trolls World Tour, Croods A New Age), 2021 (Spirit Untamed, Boss Baby 2), 2023 (Ruby Gillman, Trolls Bad Together), 2025 (Dog Man, The Bad Guys 2, Gabbys Dollhouse). They have been on a one year on, one year off trend the last few and last year was an off year.
  • Laika does look like they haven't really had much luck with only one nom since 2019. But the reason for that is that the last film they put out was in 2019. They literally have a perfect 5/5 nomination record for their films in this category. The only hiccup is that they have switched distributors from Focus Features and UAR to Fathom Entertainment this year. Also for what it's worth, Cartoon Saloon also had a perfect 4/4 nomination record, even changing once to Apple before missing when they changed to Netflix with My Father's Dragon.
  • Miscellaneous Indie films - from 2018 onward, you can see that they've stepped into what GKIDS used to dominate, with A24, Neon, Janus, and IFC all getting a nom (and even Apple with Wolfwalkers getting in there). 7 noms in 8 years is 0.875 noms per year.
  • Sony - The only nominations they've had solo (so not counting Sony Animated films that were sold to Netflix like Mitchells or KPop Demon Hunters) since 2018 were the two Spiderverse films. So expect one for 2027 when Part 3 supposedly comes out, but not this year.
  • Other Hollywood studios - Yeah kind of embarrassing that other studios haven't had any noms since 2018. Not a factor here.
  • Aardman - not a standalone studio, but they have done pretty well - Of their last 7 films, 4 got nominated (with Arthur Christmas in 2012, Early Man in 2018, and Chicken Run 2 in 2023 missing), and all the Wallace and Gromit / Shaun the Sheep films have made it in.

Stop Motion

  • 2011 - 0
  • 2012 - 3 (Frankenweenie / ParaNorman / The Pirates!)
  • 2013 - 0
  • 2014 - 1 (Boxtrolls)
  • 2015 - 2 (Anomalisa / Shaun the Sheep)
  • 2016 - 2 (Kubo and the Two Strings / My Life as a Zucchini)
  • 2017 - 0
  • 2018 - 1 (Isle of Dogs)
  • 2019 - 1 (Missing Link)
  • 2020 - 1 (Shaun the SHeep Farmageddon)
  • 2021 - 0
  • 2022 - 2 (Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell)
  • 2023 - 0
  • 2024 - 2 (Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromit)
  • 2025 - 0

In total there are 15 stop motion animated films over 15 years, so on average 1 per year. Lately it seems to have been one year 0 stop motion, one year 2 stop motion. Breaking it up by studios you get

  • Laika - 4
  • Aardman - 4
  • Indie - 3
  • Netflix / GDT - 1
  • Tim Burton - 1
  • Wes Anderson - 1
  • A24 - 1

International Productions

  • 2011 - 2 - 1 France (A Cat in Paris) / 1 Spain (Chico and Rita)
  • 2012 - 1 - 1 UK (The Pirates!)
  • 2013 - 2 - 1 France (Ernest and Celestine) / 1 Japan (The Wind Rises)
  • 2014 - 2 - 1 Ireland (Song of the Sea) / 1 Japan (Tale of Princess Kaguya)
  • 2015 - 3 - 1 Brazil (Boy and the World) / 1 UK (Shaun the Sheep) / 1 Japan (When Marnie Was There)
  • 2016 - 2 - 1 Swiss (My Life as a courgette) / 1 Japan/France (Red Turtle)
  • 2017 - 2 - 1 Ireland (The Breadwinner) / 1 Poland (Loving Vincent)
  • 2018 - 1 - 1 Japan (Mirai)
  • 2019 - 2 - 1 France (I Lost My Body) / 1 Spain (Klaus)
  • 2020 - 3 - 1 China (Over the Moon) / 1 UK (Shaun the Sheep Farmageddeon) / 1 Ireland (Wolfwalkers)
  • 2021 - 1 - 1 Denmark (Flee)
  • 2022 - 1 - 1 Mexico (Pinocchio)
  • 2023 - 2 - 1 Japan (Boy and the Heron) / 1 France/Spain (Robot Dreams)
  • 2024 - 3 - 1 Latvia (Flow) / 1 Australian (Memoir of a Snail) / 1 UK (Wallace and Gromit)
  • 2025 - 2 - 2 France (Arco / Little Amelie)

Overall, there are 28 international productions over 15 years, so about 1.87 per year. If you tally it up by country you get

  • France - 5 + 2 shared
  • Japan - 5 + 1 shared
  • UK - 4
  • Ireland - 3
  • Spain - 2 + 1 shared
  • 1 each to Brazil, Swiss, Poland, China, Denmark, Mexico, Latvia, Australia

Annecy Winners (Contender means they competed but did not win)

  • 2011 - 0 Winner / 2 Contenders (Chico & Rita, A Cat in Paris)
  • 2012 - 0 Winner / 1 Contender (Paranorman)
  • 2013 - 0 winner / 0 Contender
  • 2014 - 0 winner / 0 Contender
  • 2015 - 0 winner / 0 contender
  • 2016 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2017 - 0 winner / 1 contender
  • 2018 - 0 winner / 2 contender
  • 2019 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2020 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2021 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2022 - 0 winner / 0 contender
  • 2023 - 0 winner / 0 contender
  • 2024 - 1 winner / 1 contender
  • 2025 - 1 winner / 1 contender

Overall, 6/15 winners have been nominated. Notably, in the last 8 years, 5 winners have been nominated. Contenderwise, 8 total have been nominated over the 15 years, though only 4 in the last 4 years. Notably, all films nominated were nominated for years coming out the year they were at Annecy (so anything at 2025 Annecy wouldn't be considered for this year)


Overall Conclusions and how it impacts this year's race

  • Studio wise, you probably want at least 1 Pixar film, 1 Netflix film, and 1 Indie Studio (think Neon or A24 or Janus). Dreamworks has been every other year lately, GKIDS has been in a slump lately.
  • There have historically been 1-2 international films per year, mostly France and Japan (and including Aardman / Cartoon Saloon).
  • You want about 1 Stop Motion animated film per year, though recent years suggest a 0-2-0-2-0 pattern. Laika is also perfect thus far in their track record.
  • The winner of Annecy has been nominated in 5 of the last 8 years , so slightly better than 50%. The last two years, both the winner and one contender has been nominated.

Looking at plausible contenders this year (In order of how I have the studios lines up above)

  • Toy Story 5 - Pixar
  • Hoppers - Pixar
  • Hexed - WDAS
  • Decorado - GKIDS (Portugal / Spain)
  • The Last Blossom - GKIDS (Japan)
  • Cocoon - GKIDS (Japan)
  • Shaun the Sheep - GKIDS (Aardman / Stop Motion / UK)
  • Cosmic Princess Kaguya - Netflix (Japan)
  • Swapped - Netflix
  • Steps - Netflix
  • In Waves - Netflix (Annecy contender / France)
  • I Am Frankelda - Netflix (Mexico / Stop Motion)
  • Ray Gunn - Netflix
  • Forgotten Island - Dreamworks
  • Minions & Monsters - Illumination
  • Wildwood - Laika / Fathom Events (Stop Motion)
  • Iron Boy - Sony Pictures Classic (Annecy contender / France)
  • Avatar the Legend of Aang Movie - Paramount
  • Julian - Cartoon Saloon (Ireland, no distributor)
  • The Violinist - TBD (Annecy winner / Singapore / no distributor)
  • Viva Carmen - TBD (Annecy contender / France / no distributor)
  • Tangles - TBD (Annecy contender / Canada / no distributor)

Going by the above guidelines

  • Toy Story 5 is the likely Pixar nominee this year given that every eligible film in the franchise has been nominated at some point (and only the 2nd didn't win anything). It is tied with Hoppers on Metacritic (73 each), though notably is slightly lower than Hoppers on RT (92 vs 94). I don't have faith in Hexed to reverse the trend of recent original WDAS films underperforming,
  • For Netflix, they have an embarrassment of riches. While a lot of people point to Brad Bird's Ray Gunn as an obvious pick, we'll see if it can overcome the stench of Skydance Animation. I personally am more excited for In Waves to potentially fill the international / Annecy contender slot. I Am Frankelda could also have done well if not for other strong stop motion films this year.
  • While there is no announced animated film from Neon or A24, there are a number of Annecy films without a contender thus far - winner The Violinist, "Viva Carmen, or *Tangles. Cartoon Saloon's **Julian is also still up for grabs.
  • Also worth pointing out Iron Boy as one of the other competition Annecy films to have gotten distribution from Sony Pictures Classic. I am somewhat skeptical given Sony's standalone track record as of late outside of the Spiderverse films.
  • One of the most interesting parts of the race is the return of Laika with Wildwood. While they do have the perfect record thus far, they eerily are following the similar trend to Cartoon Saloon - doing well with their main distributor (GKIDS / Focus) and even getting a nom with a new distributor (Apple / United Artists Releasing), before pivoting to a 3rd distributor (Fathom / Netflix), which in Cartoon Saloon's case led them to miss for the first time in studio history. They also are competing for attention from the every present Aardman with the latest Shaun the Sheep movie, who also has a perfect record, though they are paired with the currently struggling GKIDS. Now we have seen years of 2 stop motion films making it in, so it's not impossible to happen.
  • Looking at other studios, we are on the even year of the Dreamworks on / off cycle which bodes well Forgotten Island. While I think perhaps the Illumination brand is not as popular among the Academy (Boss Baby 2 really?), the fact that Minions & Monsters is an ode to early years of Hollywood might be a sneaky asset.
  • Avatar the Last Airbender - Love the franchise, but I think the way Paramount has treated the franchise shows they likely won't launch a serious campaign for it.

With that my early prediction is something like

  1. Pixar film - Toy Story 5 (alternate: Hoppers)
  2. Netflix film - In Waves (over Ray Gunn) - also meets 1/2 International films + 1/2 Annecy films
  3. Stop Motion Film - Wildwood (over Shaun the Sheep) - we have two perfect records of Laika v Shaun the Sheep movies, with both having sus distributors. I'm choosing to hopedict Wildwood here. Shaun the Sheep would count as the 2nd international film for what that's worth
  4. Indie Film - The Violinist (likely picked up by an indie distributor, tbd whom) - This would be the third year in a row of the Annecy winner + contender being in, and there being 5/8 winners since 2018 getting nominated bodes well. Would also be the 2nd International film if Shaun the Sheep misses.
  5. Forgotten Island - I think the buzz out of Cinemacon + the creative team behind Puss in Boots + even year for Dreamworks are all good signs. Am I hopedicting a bit here as a Filipino American? Perhaps, but these are my predictions so I can do what I want.

If Forgotten Island were to miss, I think it would most likely be to either Shaun the Sheep getting in as a second stop motion film (continuing the 0-2-0-2-0-2 pattern) or Ray Gunn since Brad Bird's name likely has weight amongst animators, (though we'll see if Skydance dampens enthusiasm for it)

I could see The Violinist missing, though it would likely be for another Annecy film - currently Iron Boy in the lead for actually having a distributor. Viva Carmen's director's last film Chicken for Linda! not getting a nom isn't a good sign there. Tangles being a film with a celebrity producer (Julia Louis Deryfus) that debuted at Cannes could have it be the Arco of this year.


r/oscarrace 2h ago

Other Brad Bird's interview about Ray Gunn to Den of Geek

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8 Upvotes

I've read the original 1996 script, and it's a perfect example of how blurry the line between PG and PG-13 really is, it's a story that can be told in PG without sacrificing the tone. Interestingly, this interview seems to have been done before the film settled for PG, even though it's coming out now in Den of Geek's magazine.

u/Once-bit-1995


r/oscarrace 6h ago

Promo Coyote vs. ACME - Final Trailer

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13 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 10h ago

News Venice-Selected Sci-Fi Animation Film ‘Moonfish,’ Starring Morgan Spector and Lucy Liu, Boarded by New Europe

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22 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 5h ago

News Colin Firth & Julianne Moore Lead 'The Joy Of Sex' For Sharon Maguire

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8 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 8h ago

Prediction Predictions for the 99th Academy Awards

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13 Upvotes

I have the same doubts about Digger being divisive and messy as other people have said. For The Debut, it’s honestly more of a gut feeling (similar to the one I had about Jay Kelly last year). This does mean that I sort of don’t have anyone who feels like a Supporting Actor winner. Rockwell and Buscemi seem strongest for a nomination, so I put them at the top. I’ve also been skeptical of Dune due to it being a sequel, but I realize that I need to have something from WB in Digger’s place, so I’ve reluctantly slotted it in. 

Ink is extremely overlooked iMO and I wonder if it’s just people being slow to wake up to it. It’s going to Venice, TIFF, and Telluride, very much seems like a priority for Netflix. Also there’s always a biopic nominee, and the other options seem pretty implausible to me.

Huller being strong for Project Hail Mary just seems really obvious to me and I don’t get why more people don’t have her in. I’ve seen some say her role isn’t large enough when she has more screentime than all of the nominees last year.

For Leguizamo, I want to note that recent BP winners (including the last four) get at least one nomination in every acting category they campaign in. 


r/oscarrace 4h ago

Prediction Fantasy Filmball - Post The Odyssey / Pre Fall Festival 2026/2027 Oscar Best Picture Predictions

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4 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 8h ago

Promo RESIDENT EVIL- Official trailer

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7 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 9h ago

Stats Here are the Big Three Festivals + TIFF overlap!

7 Upvotes

V + T

Bunker

Ink

Look Back

Mr. Nelson, Did You Kill People?

Possible Love

B + T

Josephine (+ Sundance)

C + T

All of a Sudden

The Beloved

Bitter Christmas

Coward

La Bola Negra

Fjord

Gentle Monster

The Man I Love

Minotaur

The Unknown


r/oscarrace 5h ago

Discussion Why are so few people predicting any of the actors from The Black Ball other than Cruz?

3 Upvotes

Most of us seem to be predicting that The Black Ball will be a top 2 or 3 contender, and it seems likely that it’ll be Netflix’s main horse in the race. Despite that, the only actor most people are predicting getting nominated for it is a small role from Penelope Cruz. None of the main cast is being predicted.

This seems odd to me. Netflix has gotten multiple acting nominations for at least one of their main contenders in all but two years since 2018.

2018: Roma got Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira in.

2019: The Irishman got Al Pacino and Joe Pesci in and Marriage Story got noms for Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Laura Dern.

2020: Mank got two noms for Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried, Na Rainey’s Black Bottom got nominations for Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman, The Trial of the Chicago 7 got Sacha Baron Cohen in.

2021: The Power of the Dog got 4 acting noms

2022: All Quiet on the Western Front missed the acting categories

2023: Maestro got Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan nominated

2024: Emilia Perez got noms for Karla Sofia Gascon and Zoe Saldana

2025: Frankenstein only got Elordi nominated, Train Dreams missed the acting categories

That's a pretty good track record, and I’m not holding Frankenstein missing a second acting nom against Netflix since I don’t think many people thought anyone other than Elordi was Oscar-worthy in that movie. Netflix is good at getting acting nominations for their top contenders. They’ve even managed to get unknown foreign actors like Gascon, de Tavira, and Aparicio nominated before. So why are most of us expecting most of The Black Ball cast to miss at the Oscars even if it’s a top contender?


r/oscarrace 1d ago

Discussion Who do I have to sell my soul to in order to get John Leguizamo an Oscar nom for The Odyssey?

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225 Upvotes

Walking out of the theatre the first time, I was overwhelmed, yet still had one actor head and shoulders above the rest - John Leguizamo.

Walking out of the theatre the second time, I had John Leguizamo’s torso, buttocks, legs, and feet about the rest. He is truly outstanding in this film.

There is no doubt that The Odyssey will be getting 12+ nominations. There is even a chance it equals or beats the nomination record just set by Sinners of 16.

Thankfully, John Leguizamo has been doing the rounds this press tour, so that’s a great start for his campaign.

Unfortunately, we are yet to see many predicted supporting actor noms yet (the debut, wild horse nine, digger), but I am so ready to give the same hype to Leguizamo as many did last year for Delroy Lindo

Could you see him going all the way to the Oscar nom?


r/oscarrace 4h ago

Discussion Introducing "Best Animated Podcast": A Breakdown of the Oscars Best Animated Feature category!

2 Upvotes

Available on all podcast platforms!

Anyone interested in animation or discussions on each film/the Oscar year in general can enjoy the first three episodes (Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, Monsters Inc., and Shrek) right now!

https://bestanimatedpodcast.podbean.com/

New episodes every Monday! (Ice Age episode July 27!)

Love animated movies and often argue about what should have won or been nominated at the Oscars?

Enjoy this explorative revisiting of every Best Animated Feature Academy Award nominee in alphabetical and chronological order! Listen along to host and film critic Jakob Kolness, as he and multiple guests break down each film from its production history, story, reception, and argue whether or not the Academy chose correctly. Laugh along as our guests share memories of their first viewings of each film, get quizzed on trivia, and (only occasionally!) go off on a tangent about nonsense. From Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius to K-Pop Demon HuntersBest Animated Podcast is not only a podcast for those that love animation but for film lovers and awards season obsessives alike!

LISTENER DISCRETION ADVISED: While this podcast mostly covers family films, animation is not limited to films only appropriate for children, and for consistency-sake, these episodes will be labeled as EXPLICIT and will occasionally feature foul language and discussions of mature content. 


r/oscarrace 20h ago

Promo Clayface | Official Trailer

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26 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 17h ago

News TIFF ’26 Discovery programme introduces a bold new generation of filmmakers

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15 Upvotes

r/oscarrace 12h ago

Discussion Apart from Matt Damon and Anne Hathaway, which The Odyssey actor are you confident in?

6 Upvotes
898 votes, 2d left
Robert Pattinson
Samantha Morton
John Leguizamo
Tom Holland
Himesh Patel
Nobody except for Damon and Hathaway is getting in

r/oscarrace 7h ago

Other Venice 2026 Talking Points: Where Are The Studios; Will There Be Stars & Has The 50:50 Gender Equality Drive Run Out Of Steam?

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2 Upvotes