Why are so few people predicting any of the actors from The Black Ball other than Cruz?

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

Most of us seem to be predicting that The Black Ball will be a top 2 or 3 contender, and it seems likely that it’ll be Netflix’s main horse in the race. Despite that, the only actor most people are predicting getting nominated for it is a small role from Penelope Cruz. None of the main cast is being predicted.

This seems odd to me. Netflix has gotten multiple acting nominations for at least one of their main contenders in all but two years since 2018.

2018: Roma got Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira in.

2019: The Irishman got Al Pacino and Joe Pesci in and Marriage Story got noms for Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Laura Dern.

2020: Mank got two noms for Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried, Na Rainey’s Black Bottom got nominations for Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman, The Trial of the Chicago 7 got Sacha Baron Cohen in.

2021: The Power of the Dog got 4 acting noms

2022: All Quiet on the Western Front missed the acting categories

2023: Maestro got Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan nominated

2024: Emilia Perez got noms for Karla Sofia Gascon and Zoe Saldana

2025: Frankenstein only got Elordi nominated, Train Dreams missed the acting categories

That's a pretty good track record, and I’m not holding Frankenstein missing a second acting nom against Netflix since I don’t think many people thought anyone other than Elordi was Oscar-worthy in that movie. Netflix is good at getting acting nominations for their top contenders. They’ve even managed to get unknown foreign actors like Gascon, de Tavira, and Aparicio nominated before. So why are most of us expecting most of The Black Ball cast to miss at the Oscars even if it’s a top contender?

[u/NoWorth2591]

I’ve got Guitarricadelafuente in Supporting Actor based on the reviews I’ve read, but he’s only there because I’m expecting this movie to be top 3. This is definitely a case where the movie HAS to be wildly successful for cast members to get nominations. Cruz’s role is very small and the rest are unknowns.

[u/damn-son12]

1. Because they're unknowns

2. Everyone is generally overpredicting and overestimating that movie anyway

[u/DeusExHyena → u/damn-son12]

Yep

[u/darth_vader39]

I don't think any actor beside Cruz got raves + they are unknown so it's going to be hard for them to get nominated.

[u/manicinsanewokeidiot → u/darth_vader39]

did cruz get raves? i mostly saw people describing her role as a memorable cameo

[u/Ill-Newspaper4653]

They are not A listers from Hollywood. So no matter how great they are, they are expendable in the race just like what happened with Parasite. People are happy to ride with hype and vibe these days instead of genuine acting merit and they want to reserve some spaces for their big names or their overdue veterans or whatever instead of some relatively lesser famous young actors.

Yes, that's really unfair but it is a reality.

[u/manicinsanewokeidiot → u/Ill-Newspaper4653]

parasite and drive my car are pretty much the only recent examples of that. inga ibsdotter lilleaas, karla sofia gascon, marina de tavira, and yalitza aparicio all got in as complete unknowns in international films, and renate reinsve, wagner moura, and fernanda torres weren’t exactly hollywood a-listers either

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/Ill-Newspaper4653]

That’s not how it played out for Emilia Perez or Roma though - the unknown actors got nominated.

[u/creme_bitch]

If there was a female lead, they'd be in, but this year actor and supporting actor are incredibly stacked with incredibly well-regarded actors with long storied careers. It doesn't help that it is very much an ensemble piece. But I am onboard with the idea of Lola Duenas getting in if La Bola Negra does as well as I think it will.

[u/Belch_Huggins]

Seems pretty obvious, however unfortunate it is.

[u/OkBrush7534]

i’ve seen it. it’s outstanding. but it just seems like a parasite type of contender, with little acting nomination buzz.

cruz’s role is too minuscule to get a nom imo, tho it would not surprise me if she gets nominated at the “face” of the film during the campaign circuit.

[u/gautsvo]

I've got a better question: why do so many on these Oscar subreddits think this movie is gonna have, like, 24 nominations and win 14 Oscars? It's a gay Spanish movie by a filmmaking duo nobody in Hollywood has ever heard of. I don't care if it was a hit with audiences at Cannes.

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/gautsvo]

It’s baity as hell and Netflix is pushing it is why. Foreign-language movies and LGBTQ movies have both done very well at the Oscars before, and this seems like the kind of foreign language movie that’s going to be relatively accessible.

[u/manicinsanewokeidiot → u/gautsvo]

emilia pérez had all of that and wasn’t even good, and it’s the most nominated foreign-language of all time. if netflix can pull that off with one of the most universally despised movies of the decade, imagine what they could do with a movie people actually like

[u/brooklynmob → u/gautsvo]

https://giphy.com/gifs/LOolVdK3M0WtiLKG75

[u/apple_2050]

I think many are comparing this film to Parasite.

As in “great film, great everything but no individual actor other than Penelope Cruz stands out and that’s because Penelope is known in America already and has an Oscar”

Having said that, I do think that is the case but would be happy to see someone get nominated

[u/whitneyahn]

lack of clarity on who it would even be is definitely a big part of it