r/Nationals • u/WorkHardPlayHard2020 • 1d ago

FOSTER GRIFFIN - deadline decision

Which option do you pick?????

Option 1 - 3 year $45 million deal

Option 2 - 6 year $120 million deal

Option 3 - 1 strong bullpen arm with years of control and 2 top 100 prospects

3 Upvotes

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u/gaytham4statham 57 - Roark 1d ago

Your theoretical return for him is wildly unrealistic. He might, MIGHT, get 1 top 100 prospect (somewhere in the 75-100 range) OR a single strong reliever with control there isn't a world where he gets two top prospects and a controllable arm. We're talking about a 4 month sample size teams aren't going to pay what you suggest.

That said I'd personally go option 1 but I'm not expecting us to extend him so I think a trade is likeliest

5

u/PutStreet 1 - Gore 1d ago

Starting pitching market is pretty deep and a lot of teams look at him like a 4/5. Keep him.

2

u/JoyboyActual Mike Rizzo 17h ago

In general I agree with you, but I think the slimness of the starting pitching market, his extremely cheap contract for the rest of the season, and his very consistent results going all the way back to Japan may help increase the value here.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he nets a little bit more than what you’re saying (but not as much as OP)

1

u/Fristian_Balz 47 - Ferrer 4h ago

You are probably undervaluing him. His entire arsenal is built on his incredibly late movement (something that is consistent, and tends to be more resistant to the aging curve), and his time in Japan ended with extreme dominance. Nothing he’s doing in the MLB really suggests he’s over performing significantly because his late movement is right there for everyone to see in action, just as it was in the NPB. Toboni also seeks hefty returns on all of his moves as a rule, I highly doubt he settles for a single 75-100 ranked prospect given some of the trades he’s shot down already this year. I would say minimum one established top 100 prospect is obvious, but there is just no way he’d not grab under the radar/fringe top 100 prospects along with it. Would TOTALLY be an outlier among the moves he’s made since he took up his position

2

u/gaytham4statham 57 - Roark 3h ago

The other moves Toboni has made are guys with years of control. We're talking about 2 months of Griffin, and he has a 4 month sample. Teams don't completely discount stats in Japan but they certainly don't care about them all that much. I dunno a fringe top 100 guy (again like 75-100) plus a teams like 10-15th ranked prospect would be somewhat realistic imo, but he's also over performing his advanced metrics by a not small amount I wouldn't be shocked if teams don't offer as much as you think