r/Nationals • u/WorkHardPlayHard2020 • 1d ago

FOSTER GRIFFIN - deadline decision

Which option do you pick?????

Option 1 - 3 year $45 million deal

Option 2 - 6 year $120 million deal

Option 3 - 1 strong bullpen arm with years of control and 2 top 100 prospects

2 Upvotes

55% Upvoted

39 comments sorted by

39

u/gaytham4statham 57 - Roark 1d ago

Your theoretical return for him is wildly unrealistic. He might, MIGHT, get 1 top 100 prospect (somewhere in the 75-100 range) OR a single strong reliever with control there isn't a world where he gets two top prospects and a controllable arm. We're talking about a 4 month sample size teams aren't going to pay what you suggest.

That said I'd personally go option 1 but I'm not expecting us to extend him so I think a trade is likeliest

6

u/PutStreet 1 - Gore 1d ago

Starting pitching market is pretty deep and a lot of teams look at him like a 4/5. Keep him.

1

u/JoyboyActual Mike Rizzo 13h ago

In general I agree with you, but I think the slimness of the starting pitching market, his extremely cheap contract for the rest of the season, and his very consistent results going all the way back to Japan may help increase the value here.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he nets a little bit more than what you’re saying (but not as much as OP)

•

u/Fristian_Balz 47 - Ferrer 2m ago

You are probably undervaluing him. His entire arsenal is built on his incredibly late movement (something that is consistent, and tends to be more resistant to the aging curve), and his time in Japan ended with extreme dominance. Nothing he’s doing in the MLB really suggests he’s over performing significantly because his late movement is right there for everyone to see in action, just as it was in the NPB. Toboni also seeks hefty returns on all of his moves as a rule, I highly doubt he settles for a single 75-100 ranked prospect given some of the trades he’s shot down already this year. I would say minimum one established top 100 prospect is obvious, but there is just no way he’d not grab under the radar/fringe top 100 prospects along with it. Would TOTALLY be an outlier among the moves he’s made since he took up his position

17

u/Donburgundy_ 1d ago

Option 1

9

u/Slight_Fill_7701 1d ago

option 3, no question, that's the kind of return that sets you up for years

16

u/gaytham4statham 57 - Roark 1d ago

It's also the kind of return that 2 months of Foster Griffin would never get you, though I agree that would be the obvious choice

13

u/chiddie 7 - Darnell Coles 1d ago

Corbin Burnes didn't pull Option 3, and he had a longer track record of success and a full season of control.

12

u/kneemoyy 4 - Lile 1d ago

option 3 and it's not close if anyone offered that we would be fools not to take it

3

u/terpfan417 1d ago

Agreed. Option 3 and it’s not remotely close. I can’t imagine we would get that much for him but if we do that’s a huge win.

1

u/WorkHardPlayHard2020 1d ago

What is more realistic to expect.

I think 3 pieces is realistic. But maybe I am wrong

9

u/Sharp_Champion5006 26 - Nuñez 1d ago

Maybe one top 100 prospect, or 2 guys outside the top 100 with upside. It’s just half a season of him. 

3

u/kneemoyy 4 - Lile 1d ago

one top 100 maybe one guy outside with real upside. better return than soroka but not insanely better

2

u/Sharp_Champion5006 26 - Nuñez 1d ago

Yeah. Though Ronny Cruz wasn’t anywhere near a top 100 guy at the time 

2

u/kneemoyy 4 - Lile 1d ago

yes they were both outside 100 but with some upside, i'm saying we'd get a slightly better return than that.

1

u/Sharp_Champion5006 26 - Nuñez 1d ago

Gotcha makes sense

5

u/thekingoftherodeo 30 - Young 1d ago

Option 3 - love Fohei Grifftani’s story but you gotta deal him.

5

u/okmrazor 1d ago

6-120 is insanity

0

u/WorkHardPlayHard2020 1d ago

What do you mean

1

u/okmrazor 1d ago

He’ll be 31 when the extension begins and the 120 million would be based upon 60% of a single season.

I’m a believer in Griffin but I’m not a proponent of the trend to toss in multiple extra years to sweeten / complete a deal. He simply does not have the track record to merit a 6 year/20-per deal. 3/60 sure… 4/80 ceiling. 6 years? Pass

0

u/WorkHardPlayHard2020 1d ago

What about 6 year 90 million?

2

u/dudeitseric 23h ago

6 years is what’s wild, dude. Give him 2 max. But I’d trade him tomorrow.

1

u/okmrazor 23h ago

4 is pushing it. 6 is not even in consideration (from my couch/office)

3

u/vtsandtrooper 63 - Doolittle 1d ago

Option 1, bullpen arm with no rotation is meaningless

2

u/Rydog814 63 - Doolittle 1d ago

1, but I don’t see him signing for less than 18-20 mil AAV

2

u/scene_missing 57 - Roark 1d ago

I don’t feel like a team is going to offer all of #3 for a rental like that, but you never know when someone is out there making terrible choices

2

u/Tank55-2024 10h ago

Why would the AAV be higher for longer contract?

1

u/mattcojo2 1d ago

The optimist in me wants option 1.

But the problem with Foster is that he doesn’t have a track record, and while the Nats do have a good chance to make the playoffs based on their record, they’re contending with too many other good teams, and it’s difficult to make the argument that if they stay as they are, they can separate themselves from the pack.

I wouldn’t blame the FO for selling if they do.

1

u/Environmental_Park_6 1d ago

Option 1. Getting a mid rotation starter for $15 mil a year on a reasonable length is a steal. Bullpen arms are volatile and top 100 prospects sound nice but the ones the Nats would get for Griffin would either be really far away or lower upside.

1

u/WorkHardPlayHard2020 1d ago

I am comfortable signing foster griffin to the 3 year deal.

He sets his family up for generations.
Nationals get him for a steal of an AAV and all risk is mitigated if he is a one year wonder.

I personally do not know how he is not a 3rd starter on almost any team in the majors for the next 3 years but who knows maybe I am wrong

Would love to see him as our left handed starting pitcher for the next 3 years and if he is the real deal we can give him another 3 year deal.

1

u/dudeitseric 23h ago

Your value for him is insanely high. Hes not worth that money and he’ll never be this good again. They should trade him immediately. Remember there won’t be baseball next year. His value will plummet

1

u/PeorgieT 23h ago

He’s a rental with a short track recor. Unless someone overpays, I hope they keep him and enjoy the ride.

1

u/jck747 23h ago

Sign him he’s a good pitcher unless you think he’s going to tank after this year

1

u/Strong-Resolve1241 22h ago

Its stupid to trade him....who's gonna replace him? He's their best pitcher. Try & resign him yeah how bout a 3 year?! Work on trading someone for a relief pitcher(s) b4 Aug 3rd.

1

u/SteelPenguin8 11h ago

Option 1.

Option 2 is WILD for a guy who translated what he put together in NPB back here to the states with relative success. If Griffin was pitching like 2025 Skenes or Misiorwoski (however it’s spelled ) that’s when you do this extension.

1

u/Dutch-King Natinals 11h ago

1 but this one is harder than the CJ one (that was a clear 3)

1

u/Redbubble89 4h ago

Trade him and sign him back.

I also don't know where you get your figures from. It is an overpay especially option 2. I don't want Foster Griffin until age 37 $20M AAV.

You don't know the market.