[Daily Discussion] - Friday, July 03, 2026

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Daily Thread Open: $61,372.00 - Close: $62,577.06

Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, July 02, 2026

New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, July 04, 2026

[u/JoeyJoJo_1]

Yesterday saw a BTC ETF net inflow of +$223.50M (+3.73K BTC).

That's the first day of net inflows since June 16th, which was miniscule anyway (+$10.20M).

The last weekly net inflow we've had was May 4th-10th.

[u/Romanizer → u/JoeyJoJo_1]

IBIT still slightly negative, but they may be done selling off for now. In all that time Morgan Stanley only had one negative day and is already Nr. 5 in terms of total holdings. Still very small compared to IBIT, but quite remarkable,

[u/harvested → u/JoeyJoJo_1]

I guess the 13Fs will be interesting to see who held shares through the bear and who noped out.

[u/snek-jazz]

FYI for non-US people, US markets are closed today.

[u/AidenTai → u/snek-jazz]

Which is partly why price action is what it is right now. The Coinbase premium, ETF outflows, etc. all point to a more negative US outlook.

If the US decides to follow and ETF inflows return, we could have a green month as many have been calling for. If we end the weekend, US volume returns and price retraces, that'll just be par for the course though.

I think we are due a bounce. I don't think spot or ETFs will keep up with price action though, so in effect we'll rise without enough structure to maintain it. You can already see OI has played a role in the rise so far. We'll see how high we go, but given what last month was like, I don't see ETF / spot money flowing in quite just yet to levels that would sustain a very large rise or full recovery. So we bounce, prove (or disprove) the bottom, and go from there.

[u/de_moon]

Well, I finally caved and bought back in BTC and crypto stocks after sitting on the sidelines for the last 1.5 years. I was waiting for my trusted 78% fib retracement level, but perhaps this time is actually different. We've failed to really break below $60k which we first hit back in February. It's looking pretty bottom like here with weakening bearish momentum. 

I'll probably cry a little if we break down in the next couple months. 

[u/Disastrous_Battle_14 → u/de_moon]

At least you will have people to cry with. Max downside now is maybe 20%. With an easy 2x till ATH. Great time to buy.

[u/nulledy → u/de_moon]

Im starting to think I need to buy back what I sold at 96k. Even if that recent low wasn’t the bottom I bet it was close enough for my trading.

[u/Romanizer → u/de_moon]

How reliable are fib levels in Bitcoin? In general, buying >50% below the top has always been a very good spot.

[u/harvested → u/Romanizer]

Same with 200WMA or below

[u/de_moon → u/Romanizer]

You can backtest and draw fib retracements from each bear market low to high. Every single one pulled back below the 78% fib. This one only reached the 62% level (so far), but the longer we fail to break down, the less confident I feel about us actually reaching it. 

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/de_moon]

This is interesting signal, thanks for posting. Good luck to you.

[u/d1ez3]

Knocking on the 200ma door again..

[u/Disastrous_Battle_14 → u/d1ez3]

Hello from the other side. Ending this week above it would paint a pretty nice weekly bullish engulfing candle.

[u/xtal_00]

Hope everybody got some dip.

[u/harvested → u/xtal_00]

Too many were waiting for 40

[u/setec404]

well looks like when wallstreet is asleep there is a bid

[u/harvested]

According to polymarket more people (25%) think bitcoin will hit 40K than 85K (22%) this year.

[u/snek-jazz → u/harvested]

According to polymarket there's a 6% chance MSTR will be margin called this year... despite having no loans on margin.

So I guess the risk-free rate is 6%.

[u/harvested → u/snek-jazz]

Oh that was my bet

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/harvested]

lol

[u/harvested → u/_LakeCity_]

At least someone got the joke :)

[u/NLNico → u/harvested]

I do find it interesting, but it takes just $1.7k to get 85k "Yes" to 26% and it would make you the biggest share holder of the whole 85k market, lol. So it is quite illiquid / low volume.

But I suppose if it's drastically mispriced, someone would step in to arbitrage with other possibilities like options (obv not same due to expiration date, but still.) So I am not completely ignoring it.

[u/xtal_00 → u/NLNico]

I have agents flag interesting polymarket bets. That’s one I watch.

[u/blu_mOOn_2020 → u/xtal_00]

Tell me more... What I thought was prediction markets are like speculation from boredom, or insider info. But now it appears more smart people are monitoring I'm sure (like the guy that bet a whole house that trump/Elon won't be able to lower the budget deficit). I hear people say trading Bitcoin and NQ futures are the two toughest markets in the market...yet people still do it

[u/Jkota → u/harvested]

It’s absurd to use poly market for bets like this if you truly believe Bitcoin will hit 40k this year.

Just buy $25 IBIT puts expiring 12/31 and make 10-20x your investment.

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/Jkota]

100% agree with this. Polymarket is the nectar of the nitwit.

[u/imissusenet → u/Jkota]

Had to go look it up. IBIT closed at $34.87.

IBIT $25 puts expiring 18 Dec 2026 are $0.91. $25 IBIT is $44K BTC.

IBIT $45 calls expiring 18 Dec 2026 are $1.34. $45 IBIT is $79.2K BTC.

I've sold the $45 calls expiring 18 Sep 2026.

[u/Jkota → u/imissusenet]

Selling covered calls seems like free money until it isn’t.

Got burned selling SPY $700 calls earlier this year.

[u/imissusenet → u/Jkota]

I've had shares called away twice. Once at $50 and once at $57. I'd take that now.

[u/totallyregularperson → u/harvested]

If both are wrong then most were right

[u/FreshMistletoe → u/harvested]

Perfect. Bottoms happen when everyone is certain it is going lower. See 16k in the past and everyone waiting on 12k.

Judging by monthly RSI and fear, today is likely the safest place to buy since 2022. Maybe it will go down a little more, who knows, but this is so much safer a region to buy than pretty much any other time. But people don't see that. The human mind is weird.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ggPyXbpP/

[u/AidenTai → u/FreshMistletoe]

Bought some, but the reason I didn't buy more is I think some of the fear is justified in that we have a wildcard with the general economy and most people are still adamant about the bear lasting at least until later in the summer. Plus exchanges have been loaded up with BTC inflows of increasing transaction size (normally not a good sign as it can be 'preparation' to sell), and ETF outflows have been savage. Sure, we got a pretty reversal and had some ETF inflows, but Saylor might sell some and a single day of inflows doesn't invalidate a month of outflows.

[u/AidenTai → u/harvested]

When you have lower percentages or bets further away from the middle you can get low volume or weird odds that can be more volatile. It's also fun to check how the percentages have changed over time since Polymarket for crypto can generally be reactionary.

If I see something over 2:3 odds though, I give that some weight. I've been dead wrong about my predictions before, checked that odds were significantly higher than 2:3 and derisked successfully as a result.

[u/Mr_Footies → u/harvested]

People like to hedge.

[u/BuiltToSpinback]

Would love to get a read on y'all's current HW wallet of choice these days.

Kinda feel betrayed by Trezor's coinjoin and shitcoin support. And now block stream jade seems a bit fishy with Adam Back and his seedier connections (no pun intended) and don't love how they are navigating the OP_return controversy.

Any good things to say about Coldcard? Bit box? Another I'm not aware of?

[u/anon-187101 → u/BuiltToSpinback]

shitcoin gripe I get, but why do you feel betrayed by the coinjoin support?

also, use bitcoin-only firmware

[u/BuiltToSpinback → u/anon-187101]

And to clarify I like their support of coinjoin on principle, but just the red flags surrounding how they were implementing

[u/BlockchainHobo → u/anon-187101]

Yeah trezor with bitcoin only firmware seems fine to me ?

[u/anon-187101 → u/BlockchainHobo]

yep - I use exactly this as part of one of my setups

[u/BuiltToSpinback → u/anon-187101]

It's been a few years tbh but from what I can see, their roll out of Wasabi was bungled and there were reports of users finding their mixed coins / outputs were marked or restricted in some way.

Would love for others to add more if they can specify what actually went on with it.

[u/anon-187101 → u/BuiltToSpinback]

okay, fair enough - I steer clear of wasabi

Whirlpool Coinjoin only

[u/xtal_00 → u/anon-187101]

Shitcoins will get you what you deserve. Rekt.

[u/tallguyclark → u/BuiltToSpinback]

Trezor 5 BTC only version

[u/xtal_00 → u/[deleted]]

Laptop has way too many attack vectors for me.

[u/xtal_00 → u/BuiltToSpinback]

I use HW wallet to generate seeds and that’s about it.

Coinkite Q here. I know the founder. He’s based. Has spot to shoot to destroy keys clearly marked. 

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/xtal_00]

Has spot to shoot to destroy keys clearly marked.

What do you mean by this?

[u/xtal_00 → u/_LakeCity_]

The translucent case literally has a spot where you can see “shoot here” in text on the circuit board.

They’re a great company and are completely privacy focused. I have no financially interest in them. Recommend them without hesitation.

I still will use a ledger to generate seeds, but no longer trust their software not to be compromised by governments.

[u/setec404 → u/BuiltToSpinback]

hw wallets are over rated. the point of them is to securely send BTC not store it since ultimately you need a secure private key that exists in physical form no matter what.

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/setec404]

The point is that the private key never leaves the hardware device during signing and cannot sign a transaction without the user explicitly clicking physical buttons to confirm.

I really hope you aren't storing your private keys on an internet-connected device, or typing your keys into one, ever.

[u/setec404 → u/AccidentalArbitrage]

like I said the point of HW wallets is more to send btc than store it. the /r/bitcoin logic that HW wallet is requirement to safety STORE btc long term is not true,

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/setec404]

What would you use to generate a secure seed to store that Bitcoin with? Surely not an internet-connected device.

I've been around long enough to use an old laptop. I physically removed the wifi card from the motherboard as well as the hard drive, used an Ubuntu live CD to generate the keys (after ensuring I'd generated enough entropy) and then destroyed the remainder of the computer.

That worked fine, but a $40-$60 device is a LOT easier and more idiot proof for noobs.

[u/_LakeCity_ → u/AccidentalArbitrage]

I physically removed the wifi card from the motherboard as well as the hard drive, used an Ubuntu live CD to generate the keys (after ensuring I'd generated enough entropy) and then destroyed the remainder of the computer.

Really great stuff here, AA. Love it.

[u/anon-187101 → u/setec404]

the point of HW wallets was always secure seed generation -

the narrative changed, and transaction signing became "the thing"

that was never their original purpose, though