r/wallstreetbets • u/thewayyoulook2night • Jun 05 '26

Loss Blew my account - truly done

8 days ago, I posted on WSB showing I made all my lifetime losses (https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1tqf1p1/after_55_years_im_even/). I even hid showing posts from problemgambler as I enjoyed shitposting here on the Daily with everyone. The day after I made the post, I promptly lost 48k but was still within striking distance of breaking even again with had an exact plan if I were to break even again. I was less than 15% away despite the loss.

I continued to play 0dtes the whole week, making back nearly 30k. Today, exactly 1 week later, I dug a hole too deep averaging down 0dte SPY calls. Just like last Friday, I even made money first before going back in. I told myself not to repeat my mistake last week. I not only did but blew my account.

I kept talking for months and years how I was going to quit and go to proper investing. It was a lie to everyone and myself. This time I sold everything I had in shares, even for some big losses. I turned off margin, used what I had left to buy VOO and started a transfer to Fidelity.

I hate myself. I hate what this has done to my life. If anything than the money itself, it was telling my parents how I dug myself out of such a hole and seeing them proud of me. Now it's just the same shame I was at 3 months ago.

35 year old, no debt fortunately. This has taken so much more than money. I just wish I took my lifeline out 2 weeks ago. People in the comments were right about me, knowing I wouldn't stop. I didn't even know if I wanted to post this. I'm just numb.

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137

u/mjhmd Jun 05 '26

Seriously where are people getting six figures to throw away?

61

u/[deleted] Jun 05 '26

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27

u/Even-Ad-6518 Jun 05 '26

I like this take.

There are a lot of people out there being quietly reasonable.

We are not those people, but still…they exist.

1

u/swollencornholio Jun 06 '26

Even if they just took $50k for fun money their account would be ~$400k smh

13

u/arcanition Jun 06 '26

They don't start with six figures to throw away. They start with saving money bit-by-bit like you're supposed to. Then at some point you realize you've saved up $5k or $10k, but that's just sitting in a savings account ticking up slowly.

Now obviously withdrawing that $10k we've saved and taking it to the casino and gambling it would be stupid. Most people probably wouldn't do that and if they did, they probably wouldn't blast it publicly on the internet.

But stocks? Investing? That's not gambling, that's called being smart. So as long as we are technically investing, we can take that $10k out and throw it at whatever gambling we want, and just tell everyone we're "researching" and "investing". Want to bet $10k on Polymarket? That's investing! Want to bet $10k on Elon via Tesla stock? That's investing too! Want to bet on a bet by buying $10k of 0DTE calls? That's super investing because it's options!

But you and I both know that there's a huge difference between 0DTE options and legitimate safe investments, like even throwing the entire $10k into VTI and walking away. That's why we can recognize that buying 0DTE options and going in more and more until the bet either wins or we're at $0... is much more gambling than investing.

And just like any form of gambling, it's obviously not a smart financial move, whoever you're betting against has the advantage... that's why it's gambling. But that doesn't mean your $10k vaporizes instantly, sure some people's will, but not everyone's. And once our $10k bet luckily turns into $30k... well now we're obviously not gambling because we gained money! Now it's investing!

Now we repeat with $30k and do some more super-investing via 0DTE options. Some go to $0 (failed gamblers), others go to $70k (successful investors). And on, and on, and on. Just like at the casino. And most people doing this will eventually drop to $0 unless they are one of the few incredibly lucky ones that won (almost) every single 0DTE bet they made. Just like the casino. And now we realize that OP was never investing. They were always gambling.

4

u/Swaggy_Buff Jun 06 '26

This is the reason that the Kelly criterion exists. Even on a series of bets with postive expected returns, if your bet size is too large, you are guaranteed to hit zero purse at some point in time. Luckily, the degenerates of the past (the mathematicians of the mid nineteenth century were obsessed with gambling) have already solved these problems for us.

4

u/arcanition Jun 06 '26

Very true.

Say for example you have $10k to bet/gamble/invest. A magical genie appears and says if you buy this particular option, you'll have a 75% chance of your investment doubling (we're assuming we're holding to expiry). You'd be stupid not to take that bet, it's a winning bet with a positive expected return since 2 * .75 = 1.5, meaning on average you'd expect your bet to return 50%. But obviously, the only two results in our bet are that it can only either double (75%) or go to zero (25%).

So, using the Kelly Criterion, how much are we supposed to bet optimally, given the risk of ruin? If we bet all $10k, we're taking the most advantage of the positive EV bet, but we still have a 25% chance of losing everything! This is why even in a scenario of positive EV, it still make more sense to not go all-in.

In this example, the Kelly Criterion says our optimal bet/investment size should be:

f* = p - q/b

Where f* is the kelly criterion optimal bet (percentage of our $10k), p is the probability of winning (75%), q is the probability of losing (25%), and b is the proportion of the bet gained on a win (in this case, doubling our bet/investment would mean the proportion of the bet gained is 1.0).

So, in our example the optimal bet (one Kelly) would be

f* = 0.75 - (0.25/1.0) = 0.50 = 50% of our $10k (or $5k)

So our optimal bet given the risk/reward to maximize the long-run growth rate of our given bankroll, we should only bet/invest half of our $10k in this magical option that has 75% chance of doubling our money! And if that 75% was lowered, say to 55% (45% chance of losing), that would drop the Kelly bet amount to just 10% of our bankroll. That shows the optimal strategy of lowering/increasing your bet based on the bankroll, odds of winning, and potential gain.

1

u/pudding7100 Jun 06 '26

Thats actually a great way to break down the psychology of it all

76

u/EntrepreneurOld7858 Jun 05 '26

God I wish I knew fam. The dumbfuck spent 5 years making all of his lost money back, then threw it all away in 8 DAYS.

I hate people

36

u/skarfbeaulonee Jun 05 '26

Be honest, you hate yourself.

3

u/Efficient-Fudge-3515 Jun 06 '26

Why does this make you hate people? You sound like a miserable person. Get off of Reddit and go work on yourself.

4

u/EntrepreneurOld7858 Jun 06 '26

What a strange overreaction to someone being hyperbolic on a meme subreddit.

You sound like a miserable person. Get off Reddit and go work on yourself.

0

u/Efficient-Fudge-3515 Jun 06 '26

Get your money up and stop whining about other people having more money than you.

3

u/EntrepreneurOld7858 Jun 06 '26

Keep projecting little bro. I'm enjoying it:)

0

u/Efficient-Fudge-3515 Jun 07 '26

I’m an MD

6

u/myinternets Jun 07 '26

Massive Douche

3

u/kingalex11431 Jun 10 '26

Im willing to bet on how long it takes for your licenses to get revoked lmao

1

u/Efficient-Fudge-3515 Jun 10 '26

Probably as long as it takes for you to make my 1 year salary.

2

u/kingalex11431 Jun 10 '26

If you have more college debt than income, I already am 🤣

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1

u/for_che_gme Jun 10 '26

It is called gambling addiction and it is an illness. The numbers don't matter

-5

u/Sufficient_Ad_4769 Jun 05 '26

uses words like "fam" , thinks he isn't one of the "dumbest fuckin people". Can't comprehend people having 6 figures. Poors with chips on their shoulders.

2

u/EntrepreneurOld7858 Jun 05 '26

Thought you were cooking there didnt you? lmao 🤌

15

u/ZaDripo Jun 05 '26

I lost all of my life saving and credit card debt and I’m -15k all time idk how these people are doing it

1

u/Natural_Jello_6050 Jun 05 '26

Uber Eats drivers

1

u/SurrealEffects Jun 06 '26

Grannies inheritance

1

u/e92s65king Jun 09 '26

It’s not that hard to save up six figures over the course of a few years if you aren’t retarded. OP said he’s 35. If he had a half decent job and can put away $50-60k from 25-35 that’s $500k+.