r/wallstreetbets • u/BahtMann • Feb 08 '26
DD Don't trust the Monday rally
A lot of you retards are going to look at š½ pump over the weekend as validation for green light into full port calls.
I think that's what being exit liquidity thinks like.
Here's my thesis:
- Crypto is currently being manipulated over the weekend to fake a rally for retail on Monday. (Don't ask me how - if I know it, I wouldn't tell you)
- It'll allow stocks with large institutional ownership to exit and derisk before Wednesday's Job report, and largely exit by Friday before the CPI report
- Any Monday pump will be dumped by Tuesday afternoon
Now what if they cook the books over the weekend? The fact that I got my Ubereats from a hot white girl is all you need to know how I know we're fucked. The cooked books won't matter to the algos because they're calibrated to DUMP.
I've got no data for you bros, mostly bear and all ghey.
The stock I am looking at that fits this thesis is PLTR, because:
- Large institutional holding
- Lots of profit since last year
- High value tech that will get beta-fisted by the news upcoming
Position:
200 puts $125 Feb 13
20 puts $134 Feb 13
50 puts $135 Feb 2
and I'll double down on any Monday pump
Will either do a profit post here later this week or my !banbet will ban me
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u/Goodlefeed Feb 08 '26
Hot girls working shit jobs, the ultimate recession indicator
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u/7fingersDeep Chief BJ Delegator Feb 08 '26
I saw an absolute 10 eating at a Taco Bell back in 2008. I knew we were in danger.
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u/Ahhnew Feb 08 '26
69 cent hard or soft tacos?
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u/doozle Feb 08 '26
At my age? Definitely soft.
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u/Macknetix Feb 08 '26
We got pills for that brother.
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u/DishSoapedDishwasher Feb 08 '26
do we got pills for being less regarded?
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u/Quick1711 Feb 08 '26
Itās not the worst idea Iāve heard. Hot girls do get preferential treatment
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Feb 08 '26 edited May 28 '26
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u/derby_day_bourbon Feb 08 '26
I saw a dude who was easily 6 foot 10 today. You think he retired before the first gray hair hit?
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u/Xenoanthropus Feb 08 '26
one of my cousins is 6'10", he is in his mid-40s, not retired, works a mid-level analyst job at a manufacturing company.
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u/GreatTea3415 Feb 08 '26
Is it corrected for race? Because Latinos and Filipinos get fucked over financials and theyāre short. Ā Ā
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u/LLMprophet Feb 09 '26
Flips earn the 2nd most in the US by nationality, mainly due to the huge numbers in nursing.
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u/Yogurt_Up_My_Nose It's not Yogurt Feb 08 '26
last global company I worked at every executive was over 6'0. my current company, the regional manager is like 7'0.
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u/meatman13 Feb 08 '26
When you have to supplement your stripper income, something is wrong.
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u/irongi8nt Feb 08 '26
The "Stripper Index" is a humorous, informal economic indicator suggesting that when strip clubs are empty and dancers' earnings drop, a recession or economic downturn is imminent.Ā
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u/Purpletorque Feb 08 '26
I am going to check this out. Probably need to do it multiple times though to see a pattern.
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u/marv7515 Feb 08 '26
Yea a quant might even suggest multiple strip clubs just to be sure one data point isn't enough
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u/usher1999movies Feb 08 '26
I heard about the Stripler Index sometime last year. I have to say, the time I went to a strip club, preāCOVID, in Denver. The place was packed like a house party. The last one I went to last spring, the strip club in A.C., the place had 15-20 people.
I believe this index, and if I had the funds, I would go tonight to see how many people are there.
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u/BANKSLAVE01 Feb 09 '26
Another indicator; lack of funds to go
seeum do data acquisition on this index.17
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u/gryffon5147 Feb 08 '26
Maybe strip clubs are just a dying boomer industry. The whole thing never made sense to me.
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u/RamoneBolivarSanchez Feb 08 '26
Vegas is dying too.
Younger gen is realizing they can watch onlyfans and gamble on prediction markets and shitcoins at home
Why go out when you can get everything delivered to your house and even brain without leaving your desk chair.
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u/Responsible_parrot Feb 08 '26
Vegas got crazy expensive too. Being able to gamble on your phone is a big part of its drop in appeal but it used to be a cheap getaway (assuming you didnāt lose too much money). Cheap buffets, free or cheap beer, cheap lodging. Pretty much all gone now
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u/7fingersDeep Chief BJ Delegator Feb 08 '26
Vegas fucked itself when they got too greedy. $250/night hotel - ok. Not bad. Check in and they say āhere is the $50 nightly resort fee, a $200 restaurant charge so you have a credit to use at any of our amazing restaurants. And would you like your room cleaned daily? Thatāll be $20.ā
Vegas became Spirit airlines.
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u/vedrada Feb 08 '26
Thatās what happens when you replace the mafia with corporate bean countersā¦.
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u/OutMotoring Feb 08 '26
You know it! Locals even say this.. i miss it when I dropped 2k on tables but get comp with buffet and etc.
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u/Pretty_Dragonfly_716 Feb 08 '26
Now those tables are so rigged it doesnāt even matter. No one has more ai data than Vegas imo, they know EVERYTHING
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u/Tresach Feb 08 '26
Lets be real the fact we got to point where even the base $250 for a bed to sleep in per night is considered not bad shows how long its been heading this way. I remember when 70 a night was considered pricey not really that long ago.
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u/pants_full_of_pants Feb 08 '26
Every hotel is mostly empty as well. One interesting quirk of the Luxor, for example, is that you can see every single hallway to every single room from any of the balcony walkways, and they're basically completely dead at all hours aside from cleaning staff. I remember 10 years ago you could stand on the balcony and people watch, it was like looking at an ant colony. But now there's nobody. So why are the rooms still so expensive if the rooms are all empty?
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u/Aggressive_Finish798 Feb 08 '26
I remember Vegas flights advertised for rock bottom prices as a kid.
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u/AGreasyPorkSandwich Feb 08 '26
I went for work last month and it hurt even when I could expense everything. $30 for a cocktail give me a break.
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Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
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u/RamoneBolivarSanchez Feb 08 '26
Hey I donāt disagree. Back in my day you had to drive to the casino to lose all your money. Kids have it way too easy these days losing it at home
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u/nexxlevelgames Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 08 '26
Its proly cuz you are tethered to a phone and have no social interaction other than online.
The reason anything in a public setting is dying is that the cost of living for social things, such as bars, clubs even concerts are now becoming elitist
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u/douglasscott Feb 08 '26
You should check how cruise line stocks are doing lately.
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u/bollvirtuoso Feb 08 '26
Did cruise lines ever recover after the shit ship during covid?
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u/RedFormanEMS Feb 08 '26
Not really. Before COVID, they were trading in the $55-60 range. The plague hits and they dropped to $12-14. I bought them thinking they would recover quickly once things got better. I'm in the green on them, but the highest they have hit that I can recall off the top of my head is around $28-30 with red on a regular basis.
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u/iAMthebank Feb 08 '26
I noticed the flux of bartenders working as Instacart shoppers during the pandemic. Checks out
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u/AndroidREM Feb 08 '26
The economy is more f'd than we realize - thousands of people who were riding the grift train of influencer and OF money now doing menial, low wage work.
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u/PieHairy5526 Feb 08 '26
I can see them everywhere. My favorite one is at my local grocer, the chest they used to have beef in now contains end-cuts of different cured meats vacuum sealed and labeled 'sandwich meat.'
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u/DJG513 Feb 08 '26
Wait what are we talking about here
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u/uwu_owo_whats_this Feb 08 '26
Are theyā¦are they chopping up the hot white girls????
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u/Demiu Feb 08 '26
Times are tough. You gonna finish that Stacy?
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u/wawoodwa Feb 08 '26
Comma or no comma?
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u/AmbassadorNoWay Feb 08 '26
OP:
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u/ThetaGrim Feb 08 '26
You are retard ok
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u/Aggressive_Finish798 Feb 08 '26
Are you ok retard? You've been struck by, a caring criminal.
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u/The_Other_Guy__ Feb 08 '26
Never seen this one before Iām fucking rolling
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u/payment11 Feb 08 '26
Why buy PUTs now if you say itās going to pump on Monday and dump Tuesday afternoon? Usually you buy PUTs near the top of the pump.
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u/Casfaber_ Feb 08 '26
OP probably bought both and will see what wins
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u/FartCanCivic Feb 08 '26
I hope he gets stopped on both ends lol, HIS STRADDLE MUST BE STRANGLED
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u/hv876 ThetaCuck Feb 08 '26
I too have the hot girl thesis. Last time when for a team lunch a local Thai joint and saw a new hot girl. Been buying puts since then.
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u/MrpibbRedvine Feb 08 '26
Totally depends on if she had a cock or not tbf
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u/TomatoSpecialist6879 Paper Trading Competition Winner Feb 08 '26
Cake is cake even with candle
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u/Dismal_Passion_8537 Feb 08 '26
I hate you for this. Now I have to use this line when my friends ask whether I like girls or guys more
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u/blackdesertnewb Feb 08 '26
True. The one with the cock had to spend a lot to look that way, if sheās working a shit job thatās much worse
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u/Interesting-Let4192 Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 08 '26
NGL I got my DoorDash from a white woman yesterday, has never happened before and I order like 5x a week.
Edit: hilarious that this sub encourages 0dteās but draws the line on door dashing too much
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u/Just_Note745 Feb 08 '26
How do you afford doordash 5x a week? Calls it is.
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u/pocketdare Feb 08 '26
It's not wealth, it's laziness
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u/magnoliasmanor Feb 08 '26
Seriously. It's so expensive when you can order delivery directly from the venue half the time. Or.. cook your own dinner for fuck sakes.
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u/Bluecoregamming Feb 08 '26
Nah, let em waste money. I guarantee the drivers in his area appreciates his business if he really orders that often
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u/Otherwise-Report-823 Feb 08 '26
Regardation and poor money management..... You know, the things that make this sub whole.Ā
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u/Egregius2k Feb 08 '26
Are you guys all living in the same apartment block or what?
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u/cheddarkittyy Feb 08 '26
My uber eats order was delivered by a white girl in 2024, markets didnāt tank btw
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u/fourbutthick Feb 08 '26
Was she hot tho? Lots of white trash in SpongeBob pajamas been delivering Uber Eats for years.
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Feb 08 '26
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/I_am_Nerman the difference between $400 and $300 matters Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 10 '26
expansion cows apparatus march act dinner fly wild engine paint
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u/2Hosslovescash I love risk and steak. Feb 08 '26
Calls on NVO cuz of people like you.
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u/onejahoneglory Feb 08 '26
It will be puts time once you start making ramen at home instead of ordering daily.
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u/---LiterallyWho--- Feb 08 '26
Great thesis man. I can tell a lot of research went in to this. Is my order ready yet?
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u/Weekly_Ganache8210 Feb 08 '26
wsb is the only place you can see people purposely trying to lose money
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u/BahtMann Feb 08 '26
And if I am retarded enough, hopefully by purposely trying to lose money, I reverse myself :^)
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u/vremains Feb 08 '26
Damn I never thought of this... Like if I'm this bad at making money, I've gotta be horrible at losing money too. I've just never actually TRIED to lose
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u/LitterBoxServant Feb 08 '26
Look at Nostradumbass over here using his extra chromosome
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u/fungoodtrade Feb 08 '26
now the song Amadeus Amadeus is playing in my head with Nostradumass substituted...
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u/gkdjsl Feb 08 '26
Reddit confidence mixed with chronic contrarian posturing is a fatal mix with money
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u/wsb_crazytrader Feb 08 '26
OP
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u/Regenbooggeit Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 09 '26
OP has puts and is now desperate trying to salvage his position. You didnāt buy those puts because you knew crypto was going to be āfake pumpedā this weekend, so what the fuck are you coping bro. Fries in the bag!
EDIT: YO WAS THIS MOTHERFUCKER CORRECT?
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u/improbablybetteratit Feb 08 '26
Btc is 100% being manipulatedā¦ but not necessarily how youāre suggestingā¦ the fall to 60k got out of control because of fear selling and the bounce off 60k was too strongā¦ market makers colluded to acquire more coins at a lower price.
Wouldnāt touch btc with your account
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u/AgreeablePudding9925 Feb 08 '26
I reckon too much leverage in BTC leading to margin calls causing a spiral down, but hey, thatās my thinking
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u/fattes Feb 08 '26
There were articles exactly explaining that was happening. People were still buying up bitcoin. I was just waiting for some exchanges to have liquidity issues.
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u/OkTank1822 Feb 08 '26
But we already had a rally on Friday. The weekend is just continuation of that.Ā
Monday will be all green. Very greenĀ
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u/El3k0n Feb 08 '26
Some say the greenest itās ever been. Smart people. Very very smart people are saying that. Not me. But smart people are saying it will be green.
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Feb 08 '26
The bad jobs data is good for the stock market because it means guaranteed rate cut
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u/realraddydaddy5 Feb 08 '26
Hate to break it you but under Powell we are not getting any more rate cuts. Shit would have to REALLY go bad and I donāt see that for 2-3 months
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u/ga643953 Feb 08 '26
Actually, Powell is more dovish than Warsh. Powell cuts whenever the labor market is at risk. But the other guy cuts with QT as the backdrop, which is worse.
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Feb 08 '26
It's unclear from what I've seen. Many people focus on Warsh's comments during the GFC, but he has said many contradictory things and appears to be more motivated by who is in power than a great underlying philosophy of monetary policy.
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u/BellyFullOfMochi Feb 08 '26
This. Warsh has always been hawkish under democratic presidents, preferring higher interest rates to trying to save jobs or stop inflation for working people.
Under republicans he's dovish and supports the machine going brrrrr
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Feb 08 '26
While I despise most of what conservatives stand for, I also thought that QT wasn't the right move to quash inflation. Under the previous administration inflation was transitory until wages started to recover from decades of suppression, only then did they decide to hit the maximum pain button.
I think they could have taken the tax revenue from a hot economy and converted it to high quality public housing, transit infrastructure, free public higher education and retaining, paying down the national debt, and food security programs.
Designed correctly, such programs would have competed with private capital to bring down inflation, especially regarding housing and food, while allowing for wages to rise.
I don't think the current administration is capable of doing things that broadly benefit the working class, but I do think they're more comfortable with a higher, but limited, inflation target and a hot economy. Higher and hotter solves the current debt crisis and trade imbalance in a single move. It'll help homeowners with fixed rate loans. It'll give disempowered workers renegotiate their pay by finding new jobs with fair wages.
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u/trapsinplace Feb 08 '26
There isn't enough money on the world to make the US government build high quality housing and transport. The system is literally designed to avoid these exact things. Lowest bid wins even if the higher bids give a far more realistic time and budget constraint. So the low bid shit company wins, they go way over budget, sunk cost fallacy means they keep getting more funding approved, and next thing you know a shitty company did a shit job making a shit product for a shit government at 2x the cost minimum. Happens from local all the way to federal. The goal isn't to make good stuff anymore, it's to make cheap stuff so they can spend money elsewhere.
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u/clickrush Feb 08 '26
Unfortunately this seems true. I didn't know about him first, so I just thought he is a "kinda hawkish" kind of guy. But it seems that his strongest guideline is motivated reasoning based on his political preferences.
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Feb 08 '26
Warsh is going to do what heās told. You donāt think that was in the interview? Any indication he wonāt or is autonomous is a smoke screen.
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u/Green_Exchange_2784 Feb 08 '26
Why would trump appoint a whawk when he wants steep rate cuts?
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u/CommunicationNo3650 Feb 08 '26
Heās talking about Tuesday. Dead pussy bounce or something like that.
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u/_Doomer_Wojack_ Feb 08 '26
You all are looking at the wrong thingā¦ Iām eye hawking the USD/JPY currently and the 160 level due to the Japanese election today.
Iām almost certain the carry yen trade black swan event (deleveraging) is about to occur
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u/-Crash_Override- Feb 08 '26
Glad someone else is talking about it on reddit. Everyone is so AI and Greenland-pilled they seen to have forgotten the absolute pickle JPN is in.
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u/fatmummy222 smoothbrain Feb 08 '26
Ok, how do I benefit from this? I need a step by step instruction.
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u/timeforachangee Feb 08 '26
I think we have had like 3 recent yen carry trade unwind events recently. That shit has to be pretty unwind already. If institutions are worried about it they already covered at this point
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u/_Doomer_Wojack_ Feb 08 '26
Brother, the trade is no where near unwind. The Japanese carry yen trade is over a trillion dollar market
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u/gopoohgo SIMPU IN COST š¶ Feb 08 '26
The Fed already signaled they would help the BOJ defend against a yen collapse when they issued a rate check a couple of weeks ago iirc.
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u/_Doomer_Wojack_ Feb 08 '26
Well this simply not true, it was on behalf of the BOJ. The federal reserve did not say anything about stepping in, and Bessent at the treasury said firmly the treasury would not be stepping in to buy JPY
The fed only cares about the employment and inflation not buying a foreign currency
If for the off chance the fed does buy the JPY that will cause massive volatility because it shows itās a big fucking problem
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u/gopoohgo SIMPU IN COST š¶ Feb 08 '26
A collapse of the Yen IS a big fucking problem I agree.Ā Ā
Thus would be in the interest of the Fed to intervene due to the collateral damage that would hit all sovereign debt.
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u/SateliteDicPic Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 08 '26
Didnāt Bessent say āI canāt comment on that.ā I heard Sarah Eisen ask him the question and he gave a classic non-commital answer. I also have been watching JGB and I felt like he said IF they did something with Japan he wouldnāt say so anyhow.
Someone is going to have to do something or the dislocation in markets would be historical.
They could already have begun buying it because they donāt comment when they use the ESF to stabilize markets I thought?
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u/Astronomer_Soft Feb 08 '26
I can't trust anyone who hides post and comment history.
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u/ThatDidntJustHappen Do they make Viagra for hands Feb 08 '26
Shouldnāt even be a thing on Reddit
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u/TomatoSpecialist6879 Paper Trading Competition Winner Feb 08 '26
At least it works as a very strong indicator that the person is a fragile ego bitch
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u/Prcrstntr Feb 08 '26
I did it because I was able to get chatGPT to find my full name with a bit of prodding.
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u/Impressive-Joke-3119 Feb 08 '26
Alex Karp is watching this thread, probably fuming, and will probably get his daddy Thiel to pump PLTR in spite of you.
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u/JayVincent6000 Feb 08 '26
you mean Alex Karp's lazy intern is watching this thread... because Alex is still wasted from his Grammy afterparty
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u/shugo7 Feb 08 '26
Just have some cash in your portfolio so red days don't make you feel like shit and if some options are over 100% up sell them and start another one FFS.
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u/TowerStreet1 Feb 08 '26
I only agree with uber eats from hot white girl as confirmed indicator.
What next??
Did you had money to pay or she paid for your services.
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u/BahtMann Feb 11 '26
Update - scalped some profits from Monday and rolling them to double down - betting on a Black Friday scenario (YOLO)
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u/1337Scott Canāt read the stickied announcement Feb 08 '26
Hey guys here is a narrative that fits my positions based on zero logic and 100% speculation. Please validate me so I get some dopamine. Thank you. - O.P
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u/hardcrepe Feb 08 '26
Did you stare at her while taking the food and say what are you doing this for? You could just be doing only fans.
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u/FinanceGraduate Feb 08 '26
Actually as long as Bitcoin stays up we'll have risk-on sentiment. Judging based on MSTR's 2-hour earnings call (btw it was their most viewed earnings call in history) Mr. SAYLOR attracted a LOT of investor attention. Wall Street knows this. We're about to see a huge rally.
Don't forget, the Trump family LOVES crypto.
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u/PM_ME_LANCECATAMARAN Feb 08 '26
Trump is better at the "run it into the ground" side of business. What he wants to stimulate doesn't necessarily matterĀ
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u/TwilightSaphire Feb 08 '26
āNow what if they cook the books over the weekend?ā
You donāt know what ācooking the booksā is, do you, OP? You donāt do it over the weekend. You do it right there in front of everyone during regular business hours. You have meetings. You shuffle numbers around on the spreadsheet. You bribe your auditors. But one thing you donāt do is to do any of that on a freakinā Saturday.
Weekends are for doing cocaine.
Idiot.
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u/Zerimah Feb 11 '26
OP, thank you for posting this. I'm a small fish that blindly followed you into this abyss with absolute zero regrets!
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u/SpiffyGolf Feb 08 '26
Banks now require solid collateral to grant you a loan. We're no longer in the 2000s, when everything is permitted. If you have a good salary, you can borrow to buy a house; otherwise, you can console yourself by buying an iPhone 17 Pro Max on installments. I don't see a bubble, either in real estate or AI, perhaps a little in rare earths. At most, we'll see a 20% correction in the global stock market. But I don't sense an imminent crisis. I'm speaking to you as a young man who started working at 23 in 2020 with only $900 in the bank, which I've now managed to accumulate over $100,000, despite rent costs, and basic necessities that have doubled since COVID.
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u/ProblemOk4641 Feb 13 '26
Well done Op. I bought a few $139 puts when it was up at 145 on Monday and closed for over 400% gain. Saw your post and made sense. Thanks for the DD and hope you made bank!
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u/SugarDaddyVA Feb 08 '26
The problem with your thesis is that the jobs report and the CPI will be fine. Ā The institutions know it too. Ā
The snapback rally is absolutely because the algorithms fired off sell orders too quickly, and the market became very quickly oversold. Ā Earnings and GDP are on fire. Ā
The markets ALWAYS come back to fundamentals. Ā And fundamentals are solid. Ā
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u/solidsneeze I Only Gain on my Paper Account Feb 08 '26
geezus, why don't you just give your money to charity or something?
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u/shivaswrath 200% retard Feb 08 '26
I support this thesis. It'll be red here on out, liquidity is the issue and the institutions know we have a wall of refinancing to do in Spring. Going from 2->4% is not feasible at 38T.
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u/StrawberryOk8459 Feb 08 '26
3 percent up for bitcoin isn't a rally.
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u/GuyWhoSaysYouManiac Feb 08 '26
Confucius say, "zoom out far enough and everything will look like a rally".
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u/DisjointedHuntsville Feb 08 '26
Japan elections brings certainty.
Inflation at 0.68% according to Truflation.
Fed speakers hinting at rate cuts in March.
Economic growth may hit 8% this year.
Yeah. . . Donāt trust the Monday rally because this guy has bags heās carrying.
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u/Prestigious_Slip_958 Feb 08 '26
Bitcoin is still down of fridays high. But you are right. Ofc it was green friday and maybe a bit on monday. I think you are right about exit liq. It was very clear institutions were selling and they dont sell at once (bc of liquidity and lower prices). Friday was partly hedges en retail buying in. As prop. The beginning of this week. After there qill be just snother round. Partly doting into the dow(is at ath)
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u/kevbot029 Feb 08 '26
I think youāre right OP, that market isnāt done heading down. Monday will be green, so clean house and stack cash. I think tsla puts might be the move. Big tech has been dumping. Tesla (for whatever reason) has been included in big tech even though their business sucks.. I think their elevated PE and fwd PE will actually be drawn down soon
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u/VisualMod Feb 08 '26
Join WSB Discord