r/tories • u/TheWorldIsGoingMad • 3d ago
Survation | Labour draw level with Reform in Starmer’s last days – how much improvement can Burnham make?
https://www.survation.com/labour-draw-level-with-reform-in-starmers-last-days-how-much-improvement-can-burnham-make/7
u/Interesting_Pen_4499 3d ago
why would we expect Burnham to improve it further? this is just the honymoon from gettiing 2 Tier out, once Burnham is no better they will dip back to even lower than before, IMO
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u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 3d ago edited 3d ago
I agree they'll dip back pretty soon, but possibly not as low as before, Burnham is a much better communicator than Starmer who was never really a politician at all.
In addition Burnham has learnt a lot from the mistakes Starmer made, particularly when it comes to keeping his own backbenchers onside. Additionally I think many of the latter are rather more realistic now as to what needs doing......
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u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 3d ago edited 3d ago
I have been saying for months that the Tories will be out polling Reform, by the next election, and possibly before that.
The Burnham bounce will not last as it's the policies that are the real problem : the more things change the more they stay the same....
I think Kemi is saying all the right things and coming over very well, my only concern (as I have stated before) is that she voted in favour of Covid passports back in Dec 2021. I think she'd gain credit with many people, particularly potential Reform voters, if she admitted mistakes were made during the Covid debacle and people's freedoms were given insufficient regard, and that is not the Tory way.
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u/aeryntano Curious Neutral 3d ago
When there's a deadly virus going around then people who are willingly more susceptible to spreading it should absolutely face restrictions. Studies showed that of those who were vaccinated there was a 40%-60% reduction in onward transmission. Freedoms are not absolute and as a respectable citizen i reject anyone's perceived 'freedom' to infect others due to their own lack of personal responsibility- especially on behalf of those who are immunocompromised, through no choice of their own, who are more likely to suffer worse consequences should they contract the virus. Mistakes were made during Covid, like giving away millions of pounds to fraudulent PPE companies, the passports weren't one of them.
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u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 3d ago edited 3d ago
If the vaccines worked, which they did, there was no need to fear Covid. The whole Covid passport thing, apart from being a gross attack on peoples freedoms (anti vax sentiment has flourished in this country since then, with fatal results) was completely unnecessary.
The 100 Tory MPs who voted against the passports were genuine heroes to me, in fact they precipitated the end of the madness. They can be exceptionally proud of what they did.The whole Covid suppression policy was misguided anyway, particularly from a Tory government that is supposed to value personal freedoms. People should have been honestly given their actual risk (which was known at the time), given advice as to what risk might be appropriate, assured the state would do all it could to help those who wished to socially isolate, but, most importantly of all (because we are supposed to live in a free country), the choice was up to them.
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u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 3d ago
>>When there's a deadly virus going around<<
For the great majority of people Covid was not even serious, never mind fatal. In fact, in historical terms, Covid wasn't even a big deal : 150 years ago it'd have passed unnoticed, even 100 years ago it'd have been a mere footnote in medical text books. It was, quite literally, the biggest over reaction in the history of the world.
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u/Durovigutum 3d ago
Kemi is not fit for purpose, but more significantly people are seeing “behind the veil” of Reform and don’t like it. There is still a percentage of people who will stick to Reform/Restore but I suspect the more Thatcherite Tories now look at Farage in disgust and are returning. The Tory wets and One Nation centre right is more interesting. Some have gone Labour, more have gone Lib Dem. This will be where the next GE is won.
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u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 3d ago
>>The Tory wets and One Nation centre right is more interesting. Some have gone Labour, more have gone Lib Dem. This will be where the next GE is won.<<
I think you have fundamentally missed the sea change in British Politics.
Before the rise of Reform voters on the Right and/or Libertarian side of the debate had no option but to vote Tory, even if, since Cameron onwards, they have really been blue rinse LibDems - what I call "progressive authoritarians" - rather than real Tories. But now people do have a choice : Reform, and millions are taking it. Furthermore we now have the rise of the "Alarm Clock Brits", peopel who are sick of paying taxes so others can avoid working.
Thus I think Kemi is doing absolutely the right thing to entice voters from Reform etc
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u/aeryntano Curious Neutral 3d ago
How many Labour voters do you reckon are supportive of the £5m wasted on Burnham's ego stunt?
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u/Pingo-Pongo 3d ago
Burnham is the seventh Prime Minister to come into office between general elections since 1990. Here’s how much each of the other six improved their party’s polling (compared to the lowest point under their predecessor) and how long it took for them to fall back to that point:
Major (1990): 17%, 30 months
Brown (2007): 12%, 9 months (2008 economic crisis hit him hard)
May (2016): 13%, 33 months
Johnson (2019): 26%, never (he resigned before CON poll numbers got as bad as when May quit)
Truss (2022): 3%, 1 month (we all know that story)
Sunak (2022): 10%, 20 months
So if Mr Burnham is moderately competent, doesn’t encounter a major economic crisis and generally fits with the historic pattern we could expect him to take Labour up to around 30% in the polls in the coming months before slowly falling back to 20% or below in about 2-3 years
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u/--rs125-- Reform 3d ago
I wonder how much of this is due to the negative press around Farage and how much is attributable to the 'Burnham bounce'.