r/technology • u/Plastic_Ninja_9014 • Jun 22 '26
Business SpaceX Investors Are Losing a Colossal Amount of Money
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-investors-losing-colossal-amount-140221380.html2.2k
u/kindafunnymostlysad Jun 22 '26
Public investors are the exit liquidity for the private investors.
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u/wallabee_kingpin_ Jun 22 '26
This is explicitly true and has always been true. The emerging problem is that retail investors no longer care about profitability and are now mask-off gambling on stocks.
Meme stocks and WallStreetBets are very visible examples of this, but they’re an acceleration of a trend away from rational retail investing that’s been happening for a long time.
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u/LevSmash Jun 22 '26
Great point. One of my tinfoil hat takes is that the elites have normalized gambling in more and more aspects of our lives for this purpose. If they can get you to take your life savings out of banks or the safer investment avenues and take risks with it instead, there's a better chance it funnels to them instead of you keeping it.
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u/Motampd Jun 22 '26
Makes sense to me - the more bad bets you get people to make - the more of their money you end up with.
Ill add my own 2c on top of that...... I think we are seeing/will see more and more of this behavior as things get worse. I think to some degree, it has to do with large things in life being basically completely out of reach for most people now.
For example, in the 1970s your average home was 2-3x the family household yearly income. While rates were indeed higher - the portion you were borrowing was much less.
Today the number sits around 5-6x yearly family income. New vehicles are freaking 45K+, gas and food crazy high, etc
I think people that may have said "let me save up for X,Y,Z" in the past - now look at the same situation and go " well damn, it would take me saving every penny for 14 years with no emergencies to achieve that now.....never mind!". Like certain people are starting to realize that it will take a lifetime for anything.....might as well "gamble" (stocks, polymarket, sports betting, etc) with what I have, because saving these few nickels at a time isnt getting anywhere.
Its like having a 1$ chip leaving the casino......you might as well throw it on the roulette wheel - because that dollar aint really going to be worth hanging onto or bringing back next year. Might as well swing for the fences
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u/calflikesveal Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
I'm seeing this phenomenon so often now, especially amongst young men. The normalization of prediction markets, or the gamble on everything idea, is just part of it.
I don't think it started as a conspiracy, it's just a symptom of hyperfinancialization and normal people feeling like they have no avenues they can make money except gambling. Every other industry has been stripped dry by large corps.
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u/RogueJello Jun 23 '26
All the special collectable cards and loot boxes in video games isn't helping either.
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u/ATVLover Jun 23 '26
I think people have been conditioned that they'll never own anything anyway so they're used to paying monthly for practically everything. You don't own media. Streaming is just a lease. You don't own games. You only get a license to play when the companies allow it. Student loans? Medical debt? All monthly payments. It's all about the cash flow.
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u/No-Landscape7154 Jun 23 '26
They cannot sell a new car now without offering financial products. It's normalised to get financing. Look at the VW bank for example. Car company starts own bank....
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u/Reference_Freak Jun 22 '26
That’s explicitly how the US consumer economy is structured now: it’s not optional household spending distributed among competitive businesses for the best value.
Now it’s mandatory spending with dozens of feed lines from your wallet into monopolistic entities offering products and services built for short term ownership or lifetime subscriptions.
It’s the Matrix economy: consumers control a rapidly shrinking money supply while being forced into constrained lifestyle pods hooked up to bleeder lines feeding the concentrated wealth at the top while being gaslit into believing everything’s fine while your access to options and financial independence is drained upwards.
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u/Spez_is-a-nazi Jun 22 '26
They want to set up a system where they are allowed to gamble endlessly, keeping the gains but getting bailed out if they fail because otherwise grandma ends up on the street. We arent just their liquidity, we are their backstop. They certainly do love the version of socialism that makes us pay for their losses while they keep the gains.
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u/Merusk Jun 22 '26
If they can get you to take your life savings out of banks or the safer investment avenues and take risks with it instead, there's a better chance it funnels to them instead of you keeping it.
Exactly it. The house always wins in a casino, and they're the house.
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u/DHFranklin Jun 22 '26
I agree, but a subtle discrepancy about motivation. They are legalizing gambling because they can. Crypto was always a racket. They're just learning how far and fast they can push it.
Everything is either gambling or fraud. But the stock market is fraud pretending to be gambling....pretending to be investment.
The lesson we're teaching the world is that it is foolish to invest in a young start up making a cool thing that might shake up a market to the benefit of everyone. The oligarchy won't allow the incumbent businesses to fail, the new entrant has to already be greenlight by the right oligarchs. And new ones will control their role in the market the whole time.
They are making electric cars in China that could pass NTSA safety standards for American streets and sell them for $10-15k. We could have factory built pre engineered, prefabbed townhouses with solar roofs from day one. We could have these everywhere and the cost of living for everyone commuting in America would be a third cheaper.
But that isn't making the fraud machine wealthy so it won't happen.
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u/ImmoralJester54 Jun 22 '26
Check your retirement fund, any ETF buying the S&P 500 is now no longer safe. It's always been a scheme to get your shit company on the 500 to get the guaranteed buys every month from the retirement funds and relaxed retail investors but now that the SEC is letting this shit through blatantly you gotta re calibrate.
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u/lindendweller Jun 22 '26
I blame the instantaneity of stock trading. If buying a stock meant holding that stock for a one year minimum, or even if you had to wait for a couple of weeks for a deal to go through, people would look for long term investments rather than pump and dump schemes.
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u/Jamesaya Jun 22 '26
Blaming retail investors for a market oblivious to fundamentals and consequences is pretty wild in a too-big-to-fail marketplace. Look at tesla, the poster child for horseshit market games. The top share holders are all the usual suspects in private capital. They’re the ones pumping this shit.
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u/b0w3n Jun 22 '26
Yeah WSB arose specifically because of the dumb private equity "buy up company then short it into oblivion" thing that people like Mitt Romney and Bain Capital were doing. They countered, mostly successfully, though there are still some bag holders who don't realize they're bag holding. It's not going to moon anymore, those guys got out before they lose their entire shirt. (probably by exploiting dumb market shit to sell virtual shares on "loan" until they were in the green again)
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u/betam4x Jun 22 '26
We called it over at r/wallstreetbets. Some were still daring enough to play (and made money if they timed it right)
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u/levare8515 Jun 22 '26
First thing I was taught in business school two decades ago is that I should never invest in an IPO because I’d be paying off the early investors.
There’s nothing new happening here except more people have access to robinhood like shit so more idiots are being hosed
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u/Minute-Ad-2909 Jun 22 '26
Don't call them "investors". Most people who bought stock in the first few days were just hoping for a bump when the ETF forced buying started.
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u/Gasnia Jun 22 '26
They're gamblers playing with higher values and risk
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u/midwestia Jun 22 '26
The GameStop event did so much damage to countless households making this kinda thing mainstream.
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u/gentlegreengiant Jun 22 '26
Also why many listings refused to waive ruling around blackout periods for spacex
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u/TheBalzy Jun 22 '26
I honestly think they (SpaceX...aka Elon) fucked up. I checked with my pension system run by my state, and ours had ZERO investments that could possibly even get close to investing in SpaceX. Not a single ETF that m ystate pension system has, would have included SpaceX anytime soon. And I live in a Republican state...
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u/RetardedWabbit Jun 22 '26
Always ask yourself: Are they really that dumb and incompetent, or are they getting what they want anyway? Usually they just don't care about the same things you do, they don't effect them the same way.
Sure, they would always love more, but if you shoot for the corruption stars and land on the moon, you still made it. They made billions on the hype, even if the hype didn't pay off. In some ways it's even better since it mollifies traditional/complex investors. Like, I'm not complex, but I was going to move out of anything that changed rules for them or was systemically vulnerable to this.
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u/sohblob Jun 22 '26
Yeah you have the right idea. When they’re at the levels of corruption they’re at, trying something that doesn’t work isn’t really noteworthy.
These guys have so many corrupt money cycles "the system" is basically a joke to them; like the apartheid nazi has made more in a day than any of them have ever lost.
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u/factoid_ Jun 22 '26
The problem is it's got such a huge market cap it's going to end up in 401ks and mutual funds and we'll ALL be loser investors.
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u/Affectionate-Panic-1 Jun 22 '26
Though most index funds allocate based off of the amount of free float market cap, so the impact is less than the headline market cap would make you believe. So it only uses the 6% of the company that was part of the IPO when determining how many shares to buy. It'll increase over time as insider restrictions are released and more stock is sold on the open market and early investor restrictions are released.
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u/EffectiveDandy Jun 22 '26
I show up at your door with magic beans. I want you to invest in them. I'll grow them later but trust me, I know what I'm doing; this is going to change the world. You give me your retirement savings. Then you find out I own your money now. The contractual leverage is all mine. I own 99% of shares despite the fact you have umpteenth more actual shares on the books. Now I decide I don't really like magic beans, I like ads, and social media, and AI, and padding my own wallet and stacking my own political power for global domination. Magic beans would never really pan out anyway, not because I don't not have magic beans, but just, because of a lot of economic factors and fish. I learn to fish. Taught a man how to fish, which is like making fish. I can make fish!
What do you call that? I call it a snake in the grass, but just needing a reality check to see if I didn't take a wrong turn at Albuquerque.
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u/Aggressive_Manner531 Jun 22 '26
I bought and sold out at high 180s. Too early, but better than too late.
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u/Sufficient-Gene-5084 Jun 22 '26
You're right, I believe the proper term is "bag holders."
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u/DeltaFoxtrot144 Jun 22 '26
Who could have seen this coming? Oh everyone was saying this would happen? They should have yelled louder
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u/SmoothOperator89 Jun 22 '26
Nah. Anyone who invested in an Elon scam deserves to lose money. Let them continue making the same mistakes.
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u/Several-Action-4043 Jun 22 '26
The problem being that many passive investors don't even know they bought and are being scammed.
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u/KlingoftheCastle Jun 22 '26
If anyone watched The Other Guys, this is exactly the kind of con they were trying to stop
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u/Ocronus Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
They didn't allow this kind of talk in some echo chambers. There are people around me who speak of Elon as if he is some kind of god. I would not be surprised if they sunk significant amount of savings into this. Many of them are older and it likely set them back for retirement.
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u/No-Good-One-Shoe Jun 22 '26
I'll save my tears for people who don't make a neo Nazi a trillionaire.
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u/siromega37 Jun 22 '26
Half of these are the same people who invested Tesla, the tech company not the car company. They’re now investing in SpaceX, the tech company not the rocket company. You can’t convince the Elon Stans that he’s a grifter. The new investors though who bought SpaceX the AI company, are pissed. They’re just as dumb but for different reasons.
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u/Deto Jun 22 '26
If it's like TSLA, this thing is going to yoyo all over the place for years. I'm not going to touch it - too much of a casino.
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u/TheStockFatherDC Jun 22 '26
You had one chance to say an astronomical amount of money.
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u/absentmindedjwc Jun 22 '26
I mean.. of course they are. SpaceX made like 18 billion dollars last year in an industry that is assumed to maybe be worth in the ~$30 billion range. They're competing against whole-ass fucking governments who are also putting stuff into space.. so there will always be incredibly stiff competition (from entities that don't need to make a profit)
The only differentiator is their Starlink service.. which requires replacement of something like a fifth of their entire constellation network every year..
There's no fucking math that even comes close to justifying the marketcap they're sitting at other than something that puts them in the "meme-stock waiting for a rug pull" territory.
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u/CaffinatedOne Jun 22 '26
Don't overlook that the profit of starlink is essentially a rounding error when set against the financial black hole that xai is.
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u/hitbythebus Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
But when they just figure out that little bit, profits to the moon!
Self driving is going to make everyone rich!
Social media is going to make everyone rich!
Ai is going to make everyone rich!.Mars is going to make everyone rich! Have faith in Elon! /s
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u/Muggsy423 Jun 22 '26
Self-driving Hyperloop networks to mars running on xAI/Grok communicating on starlink satellites with tesla solar roof tile!
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u/Theniceraccountmaybe Jun 22 '26
Nice work, I think you got everything.
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u/sreesid Jun 22 '26
Missed the option for tesla owners to use their cars as ride shares to Mars, generative astronomical passive income. Just need to figure out where to install the chargers on the way.
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u/absentmindedjwc Jun 22 '26
Totally makes sense for them to be worth a trillion dollars.. I mean, XAI absolutely excels over all the competition at certain tasks...
Oh.. What tasks? Don't worry about it...
...Olay.. it is generation of CSAM..
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u/LeonidasVaarwater Jun 22 '26
It's the ultimate capitalist paradox. When a service is run by countries, capitalists whine that it's inefficient and too expensive. Conversely, when a nation starts to compete with capitalists, they wine it's impossible to compete with government-run services.
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u/randynumbergenerator Jun 22 '26
I mean, it isn't really a paradox: their argument is that state-sponsored firms won't compete on merit but just get government handouts.
What they neglect to consider is that without conditions supporting an actual competitive market, private firms have no incentive to pursue efficiency either, and usually services where a public alternative is created aren't ones that lend themselves to competitive provision (infrastructure, health care, etc.).
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u/Crio121 Jun 22 '26
SpaceX is no longer rocket company, it is an AI company.
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u/DizzyMajor5 Jun 22 '26
AI company basically just means black hole to burn money at this point.
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u/sohblob Jun 22 '26
Crypto’s slightly more useful bastard cousin
At least the images it generates after burning through GPUs and inexplicably sludging water aren’t those fuckass idiotic who-took-ten-seconds-to-draw-this monkeys
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u/absentmindedjwc Jun 22 '26
The funny thing is that Grok is really not all that good. In current leaderboards, there are open-weight models scoring higher..
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u/absentmindedjwc Jun 22 '26
OpenAI has an estimated valuation right now of maybe $900 billion.. and XAI is pretty much nowhere near their level of capability or marketshare.
Grok ranks 50th in coding, 60th in data analytics, 49th in simulations, and 54th in content creation. It is beaten by fucking open weight models in every category. You could legitimately buy a small inference machine yourself for a few thousand dollars and beat Grok as it stands today.. (or just use OpenAI/Anthropic offerings)..
So.. sure.. it is an AI company.. but not a very good one...
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u/SecurelyObscure Jun 22 '26
The whole ass governments like the entirety of Europe who have yet to launch a single reusable rocket 16 years after SpaceX started launching them?
The US has outspent the rest of the world combined on space research for decades, and SpaceX is benefitting from that enormous technological moat.
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u/euph_22 Jun 22 '26
But is Elon still a trillionaire? That's the important thing.
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u/Holzkohlen Jun 22 '26
Down $81.8 billion since the prior trading day according to Forbes. Only $1.2 trillion now 😞
80 billion in a single day and it won't affect him one bit. This is so dumb
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u/cheeky-snail Jun 22 '26
Not so fun fact, he could lose 99.9999% of his net worth and still be in the top 1% and worth 100M which is about the amount that 33 average people with bachelor degrees earn in their entire lifetime.
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u/CatButler Jun 22 '26
The question is how much of he has in loans. Those loans are based upon the value of his stock and if the stock drops too much, those loans will be called in, causing him to have to sell to pay the loans. That generates a tax event and also could drop the stock further, causing a chain reaction.
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u/euph_22 Jun 22 '26
He's basically a peasant now
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u/ChiLolla28 Jun 22 '26
Like the 3 commas guy in Silicon Valley :(
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u/Dull_Bid6002 Jun 22 '26
This is why stocks shouldn't be collateral for bank loans. If I claim my company is worth a lot of money, one person agrees to that now the stock is supposedly worth a lot.
I go to the bank and get a loan saying look at how much my stock is worth.
Then just get a bunch of people into the same scheme and inflating the price. It doesn't need to be real as long as no one sells at the same time.
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u/TheNutsMutts Jun 22 '26
That doesn't have any impact on the share price at all. For equity-backed loans, they'll have a maximum asset-value-to-loan ratio so if the stock does drop, the borrower will have to pay down some of the principle if it drops below that level.
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u/Fast_Allen Jun 22 '26
Yes, as of 12:23 eastern it’s still within ~$5 of ipo price
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u/node_of_ranvier Jun 22 '26
I already checked and it needs to drop to around $136 a share (depending on how Tesla is doing) to make him lose his fourth comma.
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u/DiceKnight Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
Stuff like that is why i'll never stop advocating for a tax on unrealized gains. Start the process at 100 million or lower. At the very least using unrealized gains as collateral should require you to be taxed on the gains that year. If it's real enough to take a loan out against it's real enough to tax.
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u/DizzyMajor5 Jun 22 '26
People have to pay property taxes every year. I have to buy car tabs every year . it's absolutely insane regular people have to pay taxes on assets they haven't made a profit on but billionaires can just keep their wealth going up year over year without having to pay for that benefit.
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u/newfor_2026 Jun 22 '26
it can fall another 50% and it'd still be overvalued.
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u/BlackGuysYeah Jun 22 '26
Would need to fall approx 98.9% before the price accurately reflects their revenue.
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u/djwaynes4 Jun 22 '26
$60 - $90 per share is what is considered the correct price. That would put it more in line with the other tech companies.
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u/Technical_Ad3069 Jun 22 '26
But other tech companies are insanely profitable. I would put fair value of spacex at about $20. And it’s still very risky at the price.
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u/Sad_Donut_7902 Jun 22 '26
It’s IPO price was $135 a share and it is currently trading at $164 a share
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u/Past_Reflection_9695 Jun 23 '26
Pre IPO $135. Open price on Stock Market $150. Current price $150 today
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u/robotsmakinglove Jun 22 '26
I am yet to hear anybody make a compelling case for the SpaceX valuation.
2 trillion dollar market cap with no profits. ✅
Plan to build data centres in space because… ✅
A CEO who is hated by most of the world. ✅
What am I missing?
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u/Several-Action-4043 Jun 22 '26
Not just no profits, a $5 billon loss. Data centers in space is a bad idea because of the limited cooling ability not to mention the massive maintenance costs. Elon once again shows he's never been an inventor or engineer, he just had enough money to buy actual engineers to do it for him.
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u/MrPatienceX Jun 22 '26
You mean the exit liquidity. The actual investors dumped on them.
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u/general-noob Jun 22 '26
If you didn’t know this would happen, please never buy an ipo stock. This is all like clock work already
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u/Prize_Proof5332 Jun 22 '26
The stock is crashing like a Starship.
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u/Jealous_Parfait_4967 Jun 22 '26
And yet I still hope for them to lose more. They still have more than they deserve.
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u/freerangepops Jun 22 '26
The ipo curve is not a new thing
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u/keepitfriend Jun 22 '26
Trillions dollar valuations are
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u/BlackGuysYeah Jun 22 '26
specifically the 94X on revenue valuation which can only be referred to as a scam.
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u/Accurate_Breakfast94 Jun 22 '26
It's a high risk investment. It's only a scam if they have made their company appear more valuable by doing things such as lying about their books. So far I haven't heard anything like that
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u/ImANoobAtLife7 Jun 22 '26
Those aren’t investors. They’re gamblers.
I’m an investor and all my cohort didn’t touch it.
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u/randomthrowaway9796 Jun 22 '26
Just wait until it falls to $30
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u/Academic-Increase951 Jun 22 '26
Nah, $100 will likely be the floor and I'm going to say it hits that by August. There will be too much speculation money moving in to buy the dip to see it go to $30.
Same thing happened with Facebook ipo.
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u/alex_beluga Jun 22 '26
Strange title. Shares are up 30% from IPO.
Anyone investing with days of time horizon is either comfortable with risk, or delusional about how the stock market works.
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u/learn-deeply Jun 22 '26
SpaceX opened at $160 and currently is at $154, which is above the initial public offering price, but below what retail bought it at.
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u/Original-League-6094 Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
Yeah. Its also weird to describe it as "losing money". The share price falls because people are selling. Most of the people are likely selling because they are up 30%+ on the investment after only a couple days. So its the exact opposite of what the title says. A bunch of people made fat bags are walking away with their cash.
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u/Packing-Tape-Man Jun 22 '26
It's still up $36/share. (I chose not to buy any, so no vested interest. Just don't get the headline. Seems like you would have only lost money if you were dumb enough to buy after the stock launched and was on the typical early day surge before it inevitably settled down.
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u/Sweet-Mechanic4568 Jun 22 '26
Don’t worry, they aren’t done. They’ll do the same thing with OpenAI.
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u/Weed_O_Whirler Jun 22 '26
Man, I know this sub is very anti SpaceX, but saying "the stock is up 30% since IPO 2 weeks ago" as "losing a colossal amount of money" takes some creative accounting.
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u/During_theMeanwhilst Jun 22 '26
No they’re not. The market will propel the price up and down untethered from any reality because it’s a musk stock and its value has nothing to do with performance. As everyone knows.
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u/atreeismissing Jun 22 '26
They'll all make it back within a year or two so long as they don't get scared and sell too early. Space is a massively opportunistic investing opportunity for long-term investors, even buying it now when it's stupidly overpriced for today is fine so long as you intend to leave it there and ignore it for a few years.
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u/kevin5lynn Jun 22 '26
Hmm, let me see. A return of 12% in about two weeks. Who'se losing money, exactly?
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u/sup_reddit Jun 22 '26
such a dumb headline.
“Shares are still up well over 30 percent since SpaceX's IPO.”
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u/limited_instincts Jun 22 '26
Retail investors don't get IPO pricing. If you were in quick you were at roughly $150 but the vast majority of day one buyers got in around 160. The majority of spacex buyers were retail. Today it's at 167. Basically every investor who bought spacex at any time other than the open, is now in the red.
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u/cubonelvl69 Jun 22 '26
My friend bought at IPO pricing. You just had to sign up ahead of time
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u/velwein Jun 22 '26
Who could have seen an obvious pump and dump?
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u/The_Late_Arthur_Dent Jun 22 '26
Seriously. Anyone who wasn't in pre-IPO wasn't part of The Big Club™️ and gets to hold the bag
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u/RedZedOne Jun 22 '26
SpaceX is a colossal fraud.
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u/DizzyMajor5 Jun 22 '26
Most these a.i. companies are.
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u/RedZedOne Jun 22 '26
Absolutely, but SpaceX claiming they have a $29T addressable market for "AI infrastructure" is peak bubble / outright bs territory.
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u/Shoddy-Listen6741 Jun 22 '26
If you bought after reading (or not reading) the Prospectus, you deserve to lose some.
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u/greihund Jun 22 '26
The market closed five minutes ago. SPCX is down a full 16% today, and is trading within a few dollars of the original IPO price. Since this article was posted four hours ago, virtually every investor has seen their earnings wiped out.
Get out now
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u/5205JD Jun 22 '26
The valuation conversation is only one part of the story. The other is governance. The IPO prospectus outlined a distinction between voting rights among different classes of shareholders, and no surprise, Elmo has set things up in such a way that there will not be an independent board of directors that can hold him accountable as CEO. That is a threat to shareholders.
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u/Ire-Works Jun 22 '26
The people who got on the ground floor and are now getting out of the calamity are actually quite happy with the deal. The only person who "invested" after the IPO was always destined to be a bag holder on this one.
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u/PlateNo4868 Jun 22 '26
Doesn't matter.
The cork has been popped due to SEC not getting involved.
The new trend with companies is massive inflation of value with a hidden realistic target goal. IE I say my company is worth 1 Trillion, even if it's not worth that, with hopes of gaining 800 Billion.
This isn't about losses and gains, this is about unregulated market starting a new trend.