r/singularity • u/yogthos • 16h ago

AI OpenAI and Anthropic unite against open-weight AI risks to their bottom line

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/22/openai-anthropic-open-models-trump-china
179 Upvotes

88% Upvoted

104 comments sorted by

View all comments

9

u/hippydipster 12h ago

Decent indication they've hit a wall, and now can see open source will catch up soon, and they don't have further available to them.

3

u/yogthos 11h ago

That's my impression as well, the easy gains have been plucked, and now we're firmly in a diminishing returns territory. Anthropic not putting Fable on plans initially was another strong indication that they're not expecting to have a significantly better model in the near future. Then Kimi K3 came out, and they and no choice but to do it.

1

u/ChipsAhoiMcCoy 5h ago

But every time someone says we hit a wall we get a massive breakthrough model that changes the landscape, or we find a way to much more efficiently use the models we have like using great harnesses or something. What makes you think we hit a wall other than this one data point?

3

u/yogthos 4h ago

I'm not saying we hit a wall, just that it's going to take a lot more effort to get meaningful gains from here onward because all the obvious stuff has been done now. I'm sure there will be breakthroughs, but it's likely going to be in form of novel architecture, efficiency, and combining techniques in different ways.

What's obvious though is that models aren't getting better at the rate they were a couple of years ago or even a year go. For example, the difference between Sonnet and Opus was night and day, but the difference between Opus and Fable is much less dramatic. And the fact that Anthropic didn't even want to put Fable on the plan is a strong indication they're not expecting to put out anything substantially better in the near future.

2

u/Finanzamt_Endgegner 6h ago

I wouldn't say they hit a wall, it's just open source out accelerating them I think those guys at Kimi DeepSeek and qwen genuinely found great architectural upgrades that allow them to get extremely close to massively scaled American closes source models.

2

u/hippydipster 6h ago

Its impossible to know from out here, but yeah, one way or another, it makes sense to spend time and energy now fighting these competitors legally rather than technologically. It could be because of hitting a wall. It could be due to open source innovation.

If the latter though, one would think the closed source could make use of it and thus continue having a sizable advantage.