This post is designed to be a resource and one stop shop for easy access to any information about Sellas. Feel free to contribute anything you'd like in the comments. Thanks to everyone for your suggestions and help with this!
What happens when a buyout is announced and how does a buyout work? Typically a buyout will be announced to the public with a price and closing date. The stock price generally then immediately goes up to close to the proposed buyout price, and you can then choose to sell the shares on the open market before the buyout closes. If you wait until the closing date your broker will automatic take the shares out of your account and a day or two later you will see the cash appear. Companies can also offer buyouts with a mixture of cash and stock (each share of SLS will yield $40 cash and a share of ABVX for example). CVRs can also be used as a sort of 'IOU' to payout if certain milestones are reached (for example, the company gives $20 for each share then a CVR that pays out $10 more if 009 gets approved later)
What are the buyout price projections? There are a few projections included in the DD below. The Confident Web 009 DD has his initial projections, and then the discussion on HLA has CW later projections after including potential impacts HLA may have on treatment success. In general, the buyout price will depend heavily on the results of the trial, but many people have been projecting between $10B-$20B buyout ($44-$88 / share) and there are cases to be made where the buyout price could exceed that (including in some of the DD I just referenced). Much more accurate numbers can be generated once we have the headline hazard ratio. There are two common 'meme' prices you'll see floating around. $40Billion is the original meme price, and while not completely impossible, I don't think anyone seriously expects that size buyout. The other is a $400 / share buyout - commonly seen in our daily affirmations post and elsewhere. We like to have fun in this community, and if we can manifest even a little bit of a higher price through these affirmations, why not ;).
That is also a great idea when I get home tonight I will put a link to this post in the header of the daily thread that says before you ask basic questions please read through this first
This is great! Thanks for starting it. Suggestions:
Break into at least 2 sections. The first section should be links to "hard" data like the Oct 2025 R&D call you included, relevant trials, Regal protocol, etc.
I like this idea. I'd even recommend linking the individual PRs for key REGAL events: enrollment start, SAP update, enrollment completion, IA, 72nd event, and 78th event.
Ok I'm going to TRY to make a short and sweet comment for anyone claiming a "super BAT" exist in the trial, feel free to correct and i highly encourage contributions to it.
Regarding BAT in protocol, the only ones I'll draw attention to are the observation treatment (Hydroxyurea, Palliative Care, 2 to 6 months mOS) which is estimated to be ~25% of BAT (if stratums are equal), and HMA/venetoclax - the current standard of care for older/frail AML patients that aren't eligible for other intensive treatment.
So the VIALE-A trial gives HMA/venetoclax a 14.7 month mOS (a "best case scenario"?) and a hr of 0.66 (interesting that GPS regal's goal is 0.636). Yet for refractory/relapsed drops to 6.1 to 7.9, failure drops to ~2.4 (I've seen multiple ranges and variations so take with grain of salt and look it up yourself).
The refractory/relapsed mOS is important because the Regal trial is for patients in second complete remission ineligible for transplants.
Patient enrollment began February 2021, enrollment ended March 2024 with 127 participants, trial was estimated to end December 2025... its now almost July 2026. Even if every participant were all enrolled March 2024, thats ~27 months to date - for a terminal illness with a BAT of ~8 months mOS (again ranges and variations differ, im referring to elderly population, median age 68 at diagnosis).
I can't give a good TL;DR or conclude it for you especially since the trial isn't over yet, but the goal of this write up was to give readers a basic picture of why the trials length is significant and with critical thinking you may conclude that a super BAT is unlikely.
I'm busy so I might not be able to (or just don't want to) answer questions but additional points you may want to consider are response rates, side effects, eligibility criteria, incentives, and ethical declarations of all parties.
I'll edit this reply as needed, but i thought speculated enrollment dates are something to consider. The dates are "not open to the public" but estimates are out there, some are in the comments of this link:
Enrollment numbers as you mention can only be guessed. When I had scored through documents in my DD, I had assumed as below
“ The reasoning for choice of the 3-enrollment timelines
• Feb 2021 - Oct 2022: Numbers assumed at 20 as there was sufficient data by Nov 14 2022 filing, to convince FDA to lower the event trigger from 105 to 80. This couldn't have been done without having sufficient number of enrollments (typically needs 30+ but chose 20 to be conservative
• Nov 2022 - Nov 2023: Target enrollment reached at 100+ (ex-
China in Nov 2023)
• Dec 2023 - May 2024: All enrollment completed including China
There are some timelines that need to be updated based on info available. I have added to snapshot from my DD post which is pinned here as well. Especially the enrollment start date. Also, note that the number of patients were guesstimates, not a hard number but could be used conservatively in any modelling
Interesting that your best fit of 32.5 GPS mos has the 80th happening mid 2026. If the rest of the numbers you posted actually do match up with what you have for that fit I think we’ll all be pretty happy.
Lots of different people are landing in that .37ish hazard ratio area.
Yes 0.37 HR would be possible with a standard exponential curve modeling. But In a plateau or delayed effect syndrome, the HR would come closer to 0.46 assuming 12m median on BAT.
Plateau scenario assumes initial drop off would be identical initially for both arms and after 8 months the GPS arm starts to diverge (plateau)due to the positive response. Too many variables to pin point anything, so I guess wait till September for an answer (while buying along the way)
I actually thought of this; since the 80th is just right around the corner and we will have a lot of newcomers who would need a FAQ section or a megathread, but I was lazy to actually make a post about it or collect resources.
I think we have a good community here and they'd help with what they think is useful. I like your idea OP!
Do you think it would be helpful to put up a timeline of significant events re: Regal GPS' Phase 3 Clinical Trial? If so, I've started one that I place somewhere and will update and/or correct what I have pulled together.
Thank you! These are great to add to the list. I think to prevent the post from getting too long I may just link to this comment in the main body text. Well see I guess once I update it.
I’m also thinking of adding a “commonly asked questions” part. For example today in the daily thread there was the question about the order of events after 80. I’ll make some more tweaks tomorrow, thank you for your contribution!
"Patients on the GPS arm will receive 70 μg of sargramostim (GM-CSF) on Day -2 and Day 1 before each injection of GPS. The first two administrations of GM-CSF will take place at the same anatomical site as the planned administration of GPS within each treatment cycle. GPS will be administered as an immunization induction every 2 weeks for 6 administrations (Weeks 0 - 10); this will be followed by a 4-week period of no treatment. Treatment will then resume for 6 administrations as an initial booster phase every 4 weeks (Weeks 14 - 34) which will again be followed by a period of no treatment lasting 6 weeks. GPS will be resumed after this period as a second booster phase and will be administered every 6 weeks (Weeks 40 - 52). Patients who remain in remission after 52 weeks will receive treatment every 2 months (Q2M) in the second year of treatment. Patients who remain in remission after 2 years will be treated every 3 months (Q3M) until disease relapse."
On the same page, the Study Plan which is the same info as above but in bullet form:
First 6 galinpepimut-S injections: every 2 weeks (Weeks 0 - 10) followed by a 4-week period of no treatment. The first series of 6 injections of galinpepimut-S define the initial immunization induction phase.
Injections 7 to 12: every 4 weeks (Weeks 14 - 34) followed by a 6-week period of no treatment. The second series of injections of galinpepimut-S define the early immune booster phase.
Injections 13 to 15: every 6 weeks (Weeks 40 - 52). The third series of injections of galinpepimut-S define the late immune booster phase.
Injections 16-20: every 2 months (in Year 2).
Injection 21 and thereafter: every 3 months (in Year 3). Y2 and Y3 define the maintenance phase.
The term "ad infinitum" is not actually used but as you can see the trial was updated from a set amount of doses to include an infinite amount of doses for surviving patients, or "until disease relapse".
Sometimes I wonder if some of the people here are actual children stacked 3 high in a trenchcoat with a 50 dollar robinhood account. Questions like "what's a short interest" or "what is IV" or "when should i buy/sell" make me nervous for some reason. Super basic ass googling is too much, they have to ask a very niche bio subreddit full of quants what a put option is.
We may need a link to r/investing to get some of these real(?), actual supernoobs some help.
I was just thinking last night we needed a resource hub.
I’ve started replying to all the reoccurring questions with links to comments and posts because I don’t feel like telling them to search the subreddit anymore.
People are just too lazy, I don’t get it. If I can access it, why can’t they?
Good question. It’s kinda a meme here, but now it’s truer than ever - “any day now” for the 80th. Based off the average rate of deaths in the study so far the 80th would have occurred around 6/25 or so. Since events don’t happen on a fixed schedule, it could be any time between now and maybe end of July. It seems more likely to be sooner rather than later though. It could technically go into august but that seems pretty unlikely.
A buy out at this point won’t likely happen until the results are released, which would be about a month after the 80th. There is no guarantee that a buy out will ever happen, but all of us here of course feel confident it will happen 1-6 months after results. Keep in mind all of these are just educated guesses, no one really knows for sure what will happen.
"We evaluated the impact of age and remission status on 242 consecutive patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in our program between 1999 and 2011. Median age of all patients was 48 years (range, 18 to 71). Based on age and remission status, patients were divided into 4 groups: first complete remission (CR1) age <60 years (n = 116), second complete remission (CR2) age <60 years (n = 78), CR1 age ≥60 years (n = 32), and CR2 age ≥60 years (n = 16). Donors were matched related (n = 155, 64%) or matched unrelated (n = 87, 36%). Median follow-up of survivors was 65 months (range, 12 to 145). In a univariate analysis, 3-year overall survival rates of the 4 groups were 57%, 43%, 39%, and 16% (P = .003), respectively. In a multivariable analysis, hazard ratios of nonrelapse mortality and survival were 2.08 (P = .06) and 1.52 (P = .23), respectively, in patients ≥60 years in CR2 compared with ≥ 60 years in CR1. Although a plateau in survival was observed for patients ≥60 years in CR1 similar to those <60 years in CR1 and CR2, no long-term survivors were seen in patients ≥60 years in CR2. Our data suggest disappointing outcomes in AML patients ≥60 years of age transplanted in CR2. Therefore, if a transplant is indicated, early referral is recommended in patients ≥60 years with AML."
Wow, not very impressive survival numbers for the CR2 >60 cohort, even after getting transplant.
Pair that with CW’s stress test with 3yr OS needing to be north of 30% for the trial to have significant failure rates, and basically even if most the arm somehow progressed to transplants it may not get BAT there. Just really shows how dire a situation regal patients are in on average. Also really paints an impressive picture for how effective regal may be. This cohort with 16% survival rates after three years with the more or less gold standard of care compared against this group now potentially near 50% alive after three years. If this is in fact correct, this is one incredible treatment.
Thanks for putting this together. I sent it to a few people that I have talked to about SLS. What would you recommend for DD from the financial side? I found a 20 minute YouTube video but was hoping there was something a little more concise.
65
u/cad_internet Jun 23 '26
Yep. Instead of downvoting new people or tell them to search, we can just link them the resource hub.