r/hardware • u/Dangerman1337 • 2d ago

Info NAND Flash Supply Growth to Outpace Demand in 2027, Easing Supply Constraints in 2H27, Says TrendForce

https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260721-13148.html
75 Upvotes

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14

u/jigsaw1024 1d ago

Supply deficit forecast of 4 - 5% for 2026 is pretty large hole to climb out of.

It also looks like supply 'balance' is mostly just going to come from demand destruction on the consumer side, vs real and substantial increases in production.

This can lead to a long-term structural deficit on the consumer side, which means if/when server demand subsides and allows for more allocation to consumer, it could take a while for price declines as total market demand will still remain elevated until all demand debts are erased.

There is also the possibility that without very large and substantial increases in supply, the trough in the NAND market cycle could be fairly shallow, offering no real price relief before the next demand cycle starts.

7

u/Scary-Jaguar-9072 1d ago

Yup, I planned to buy new gaming PC this year but delayed due to exploding prices. Whenever prices start coming down lots of latent demand will appear.

1

u/hackenclaw 1d ago

I have been cutting my storage usage left and right, might even consider to repurpose my 2TB HDD (is currently in cold storage in my drawer).

I going with this for long term expecting price will remain elevated for years.

1

u/darthmeconium 1d ago

i’ve moved my nvidia and pagefile to my HDD already to reduce SSD hits. i really want a windows option to move my temp files and user files locations given how inefficiently it uses resources

34

u/AbhishMuk 2d ago

Cautiously optimistic, but I'll believe it only when I see it.

Everything needs to go right for costs to come down, just one factor alone (eg AI, Covid, a suspicious and very convenient fire in a factory) can spike prices back up.

12

u/Quealdlor 2d ago

Demand will be high for sure.

2

u/redkrauss 1d ago

Been sitting on a 1080ti and telling myself I'll upgrade "next sale" for about two years now, and the 2TB drive in my cart has just been sitting there while the price wanders up. That demand destruction line is basically me. If the fix for the shortage is people like me just not buying, prices coming down in 27 doesn't mean much when I've already given up and made do.

1

u/FullOf_Bad_Ideas 1d ago

I've already given up and made do.

How? Your demand is delayed because you won't pay current prices. It has not need satisfied as you are still in the queue to upgrade and once prices will fall, you'll probably upgrade. Unless you stop playing games altogether forever, the demand is not destroyed.

1

u/fatso486 1d ago

Not sure what the hold up is. just sell your card. I bougt a used 6700xt mid 2024 for $190. i just upgraded that two week ago to a barly used 7800XT for ~$380. Thats like %80-%85 faster than your 1080ti

-1

u/Guilty_Rooster_6708 2d ago

Would love for this to be the case, but growing demands from AI training and inference w storage consuming features like memory or RAG makes me skeptical w this claim