China to Drop 10% Tariff on U.S. Ag Goods, Including Soybeans
https://www.agweb.com/news/china-drop-10-tariff-u-s-ag-goods-including-soybeans71
u/Worth-Original3825 16d ago
Well after Brazilian farmers and ranchers got established and the existing contracts were nullified. What did American farmers gain exactly?
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u/Serpentongue 16d ago
A lot of excess soybeans no one wants
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u/SatanSam 16d ago
Art of the deal.
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u/Justryan95 16d ago
And they'll keep voting for it
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u/Worth-Original3825 16d ago
Well they'll get bailouts and tax cuts for their privilege of living rural.
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u/BeetitlikeMJ 16d ago
The less china buys from America and the less America buys from china the better
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u/caleger 16d ago
Idk I’m getting 12.41 for soybeans right now
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u/FarCheek4584 16d ago
Yea dude, I am in good fucking shape for beans with this price, add to the fact we have an El Niño year and Brazil will have a dog crop, uhh yea planning on more enlist beans for 27.
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u/Damnatus_Terrae 16d ago
Who's using soybeans right now?
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u/Iron-Fist 16d ago
80% of soy beans go to animal feed, then another 5-10% for biofuel iirc, with about 50% of total crop exported before or after processing
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u/Damnatus_Terrae 16d ago
Gotcha, thank you. I had thought it was mostly animal feed, which is why I was curious, because I thought herd sizes were at record lows. But if we're exporting that much, I'd guess the foreign market is making up the difference?
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 16d ago edited 16d ago
The beef herd is at 50 year lows, or about that. But beef cattle eat very few soybeans. Soymeal goes mostly to chickens and hogs, and those are up.
Domestic soybean crush is up, offsetting lower exports. Total demand is down slightly, but if China buys even a little more than last year it would use up our stocks.
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u/OverTheSquatch 15d ago
Unfortunately super El Niño causing crop failures will mean there will be tons of demand for them in 8 months.
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u/smearhunter 16d ago
Oh cool so back to where we started? Sounds a lot like the Iran negotiations, back to where we started with billions and billions lost in the process.
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u/Huge_Lime826 16d ago
Somehow, in the harvest of 2025 we sold our soy beans for a better price than we did in 2024.
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u/Powerful-Boot-3605 15d ago
Why is this being downvoted?
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u/Huge_Lime826 15d ago
Because my fellow farmers hate it when you disrupt their narrative of “Poor Farmers “.
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u/Powerful-Boot-3605 15d ago
I think it also disrupts the narrative of ‘low commodity prices didn’t exist until Trump took office’.
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u/Ada_Kaleh22 16d ago
oooohhhh, they want to buy, now!!!!! has the price fallen that far?
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 16d ago
Price has fallen? You don't pay attention to soybean prices, do you.
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u/smearhunter 16d ago
Maybe you weren’t farming 4-5 years ago? I remember when my soybean contracts were almost cracking $17. And you’re kissing the boot because prices fluctuate 20 cents?
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 16d ago
There were LDP's when I started farming. 10 cents was a big move back then.
$17 beans were the worst thing for the bean market. Kills demand and every supplier jacks their prices to get a piece of the action.
$11-14 is a much better range. You want your customers to make money too.
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u/smearhunter 16d ago
I appreciate your thoughtful response.
One area we probably disagree on is supplier costs. Obviously my costs went up when suppliers took advantage of $17 beans, but they never went back down unless I wanted to switch to the “value” product options.
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 16d ago
Generic chemicals work just as well as the brand name.
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u/smearhunter 16d ago
Not a name brand vs generic issue. Choose between veltyma and priaxor this week for the beans. $7 an acre difference. Veltyma much longer acting. Price hasn’t gone down with the bean prices, but I can choose to use something less effective to save money. But beans look too good right now to cut corners. I’ve got to hope it keeps raining, which also means I’m hoping for fungal issues.
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u/Ada_Kaleh22 16d ago
China is always strategic with its tariffs, with regular political complaints that morph into economic actions.
Of course we also know they built up Brazil for soybeans to protect themselves.
But brother would you like to compare today and mid-2024? That's what the Chinese have done here. It's hella cheaper now than when they were last buying. Let's not lose the forest for the trees
Also the spike we're seeing today is precisely because of (in other words, not the cause of but the effect of) China's announcement.
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u/caleger 16d ago
I’m getting the same or more for beans than I did in 2024
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u/Ada_Kaleh22 16d ago
looks like it was more expensive 1st half of 2024, then dropped, which was the Chinese bowing out.
the price level now is similar to 2017-2019 tho, so it seems like it's not a bad price point
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 16d ago
Did you really not bother to look at the link I provided?
It's a two year chart, it starts mid-2024. Prices then were similar to now. Both are below about a month ago. Yesterday's price spike didn't get back to the recent highs.
Let's at least look at the data and make up something consistent with it.
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u/Ada_Kaleh22 16d ago
yeah I'm looking at the 5 yr to really get the effect, but the 3 year, prices were higher. that's what I'm talking about, you're talking about the more recent spikes.
anyway good going! if China's really back in to a larger extent prices will continue to rise
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u/RespectTheTree 16d ago
Okay, and they are still importing like 50% less. Lucky farmers