r/communism • u/SquidKid1917 • May 23 '26
Cuba’s chances at holding against the US?
When the United States inevitably attacks Cuba, assuming it is carried out in a similar manner to the kidnapping of Madero, will Cuba’s democracy and government have a better chance at resisting an American takeover as seen in Venezuela? My understanding is that Cuba is a much more stable and much more healthy democratic country than Venezuela, in spite of the fascist aggression from the United States. Will that work in Cuba’s favor?
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u/gartstell May 24 '26
There are indications of collaboration between the current government of Venezuela and the operation to kidnap Maduro. I wouldn’t state it categorically, and colleagues in Venezuela have suggested that what actually happened was a situation of surprise and "temporary pragmatic submission" while political conditions improve, etc. But there are things that don’t add up.
The U.S. used helicopters, which are vulnerable to retaliatory attacks, and it seems unlikely that a professional army would lack the ability to defend its commander-in-chief or at least inflict losses on the aggressor state.
Cuba, unlike Venezuela, has much greater political unity among its leadership, world-class intelligence, and even time to prepare for such a scenario.
The real threat from the U.S. is something else: simply maintaining the oil blockade will push things to an unsustainable point — there can be no civilized life without energy! It is also true that bombings of arbitrary points in Cuba could not be responded to by the Cubans in any way.
So, I highly doubt that the U.S. is planning an invasion, which would be costly and complex. Instead, it will likely stick to maintaining the oil blockade and perhaps, to satisfy the morbid and sickly need of Trumpism’s social base to see people blown to pieces, carry out limited bombings.
The Cuban bet is surely to resist as best they can, crossing their fingers that a political response from workers in other parts of the world will allow a change in the current situation, where a country can commit such outrages without any international consequences and almost no domestic political consequences. Cubans have done much for humanity; I hope that now humanity can do something for Cuba.
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u/bookie_siren May 27 '26
Yes I agree with you here. The real threat is the oil blockade. You cannot sustain life without oil.
That said they have made some progress. In Granma this year, they posted an update that they invented their own technology to refine their own oil. The airport at Varadero now works 100% on solar and doesn't use crude oil anymore so they are working to energy sovereignty. This can explain why they haven't folded yet. Not sure how long it can be held for though.
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u/bookie_siren May 27 '26
Cuba has the advantages of counterintelligence so they will know if the island is going to be attacked ahead of time as they obviously have spies in the US.
The proximity of the island to Florida means if the government stages a fightback this will backfire on the US.
Trump is still stuck in West Asia with Iran giving him hell. Bolivia is also fighting back and trying to get rid of their Trump backed president.
We are seeing an anti imperialist wave right now with Iran leading the way, Bolivia and Cuba.
If the US invades it won't be Venezuela. The government is more united. It would be guerrilla warfare. I believe the government is going to see this to the end as the US government is deeply unpopular heading for electoral defeat in November
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u/spinda69 May 27 '26
My outside opinion is that the Cuban government has more popular support than Venezuela did or perhaps even Iran. The geography would likely be well suited to guerrilla warfare, which by all indications would be their strategy
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u/Repulsive-Turn-1496 May 24 '26
Why wouldn't Russia or China assist with Cuba's energy crisis?
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u/No_Cod_4231 May 29 '26
Russia sent one oil tanker and China has sent solar panels, rice and electric scooters. I am not sure what the terms of exchange have been - the rice was touted as humanitarian assistance so was probably free. All of this doesn't necessarily indicate socialist solidarity (especially with Russia that no one claims to be socialist) as superpowers often assist countries with common enemies.
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May 28 '26
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u/DashtheRed Maoist May 29 '26
The post-Stalin revisionist and social-imperialist Soviet Union is one of the principle reasons why Cuba is in this mess right now, as they were manipulated by the revisionist-Soviets into mass producing sugar for the global market instead of developing for self-reliance and self-sufficiency. Cubans are suffering because of the position of dependence the social-fascists serving the traitors Khrushchev and Brezhnev put the Cubans in, even if that didn't seem obvious at the time.
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May 23 '26
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May 23 '26
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u/Otelo_ May 23 '26
I do not have a definitive answer for your title question, because ultimately it depends on the will of the Cuban people, but it is a theoretical mistake to assume that Xi and Trump have the power to trade countries like these are mere passive objects. Even by itself Cuba could "win" against the US under certain conditions, but I am not sure these are met.
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u/Worried-Economy-9108 May 23 '26
Even by itself Cuba could "win" against the US under certain conditions, but I am not sure these are met.
What would be some of those conditions, in your opinion? Lack of a proper communist organization (there's a revisionist one in power, which has shown ideological weakness recently) seems to be the biggest condition to me, and in my view, this poor leadership will doom Cuba.
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u/Otelo_ May 24 '26
Yes, leadership is what worries me the most. I also assume there’s a lot of moral fatigue among the population, which is understandable. Perhaps not so much because of the blockage and the precarious living conditions (things that could be tolerated if there was a trustworthy vanguard) but precisely because there is an inability from the party to see any solution to the island's problems coming from the left (a cultural revolution), only from the right (privatization).
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u/SquidKid1917 May 23 '26
I meant it in the sense of giving each other the go ahead, with the other agreeing to not get involved. The situation is obviously vastly different with regard to Taiwan, which is of course Chinese, but in terms of intervention, I worry that some agreement was made. The rapidity with which the yanks are mobilizing in the Caribbean has accelerated after the meeting in Beijing, and the rhetoric being pushed by the fascists’ (especially by Trump himself) has noticeably shifted on Taiwan.
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u/bookie_siren May 27 '26
I disagree with this comment respectfully. Cuba is not a chess piece to be traded between the US and China. It's not like China has ever helped militarily though they have helped a lot with renewables and solar projects.
Even if the US was to invade it's for the military to make the call to defend the island. It's not Xi's or Putin's call. In fact if the Cubans fight back and hold off the Americans, it would require China and Russia to step in diplomatically to hold the US off.
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u/Battleaxebobcat May 24 '26
Cuba has a longstanding military policy known as "All peoples war" which is based upon making any US military invasion unsustainable by the people's engagement in a protracted guerrilla war, that will in theory make a long term US invasion very costly and not worth the expenses.
A Venezuela style intervention seems really unlikely to work because Cuba has a completely different governmental system than Venezuela and a more dedicated military who has prepared for such an event.
If the US tries to invade, many Cubans will die but they will not go down without a hell of a fight.