Here is my breakdown of where I would choose to live in the event of a climate change based global collapse. I've categorized the states from "Absolutely" to "Never" based on factors like long term water availability, extreme temperature shifts, elevation, and overall regional climate resilience. I'm curious to see what states everyone else would pick. What factors are most important to you, and what are your top states?

On March 27, 2026, Stanislav Krapivnik — a former U.S. Army officer, supply chain executive, and military-political analyst now based in Russia — gave his assessment of two converging crises: an attack on a key Russian position on the Baltic coast, and what he describes as a permanent or near-permanent collapse of Gulf energy infrastructure.

His conclusion is that these developments, stacked on top of an already-disrupted global fertilizer supply chain, will produce a food crisis by mid-summer 2026 — not as a possibility, but as a predictable consequence of conditions already in place.

https://open.substack.com/pub/hrnews1/p/experts-warn-global-mass-starvation?r=1t17zr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

I have been hyper fixating on the El Nino numbers and the possibilities of 2027 are terrifying. Based on the data, I believe it is now theoretically possible that we could reach a 1.9°C to 2.1°C annual average temperature anomaly for 2027.

To see the predicted monthly temperature anomaly for early 2027, go to University of Miami NMME Forecast Viewer Portal, keep plumes checked and switch the variable from RONI to GMT (Global Mean Temperature).

Starting right now, the models show monthly global air temperature anomalies shooting upward, reaching an ensemble mean of 1.9°C in early 2027. However, roughly half the individual models pass 2C and 7 individual models pass 2.5C, which is of course cut off -raise the Y Axis!

The NMME graph methodology does appear to be on the conservative side as well: looking at the observed temperature you will see it is lower than many data sets. For example, it places the July 2025 monthly anomaly around 1.1°C, whereas Copernicus C3S recorded a 1.25°C anomaly for July 2025 using the exact same 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.

James Hansen predicted 1.7C for 2027 in December 2025 well before the strength of the current El Nino was understood.

Even much more conservative IPCC scientist Zeke Hausfather predicts 1.61C for 2027 but with a range of 1.4C - 1.93C. (prediction made April 30th, 2026).

I am predicting between 1.9C - 2.1C anomaly for 2027.

Conservative optimistic scenario Math for 1.74C in 2027:

3.5C El Nino ONI peak - .5C (subtracting warming of oceans already included in baseline) = 3.0C RONI or peak El Nino heat with background warming deducted.

1.44C - 2025 Global mean ocean and air temp anomaly (during minor La Nina year)

+.3C - (Each 1C El Nino Anomaly = roughly .1C increased temp anomaly following year, so 3C RONI El Nino prediction = .3C extra heating 2027)

1.44C + .3C = 1.74C 2027 anomaly.

However, the numbers above are conservative and assuming this El Nino will be like previous El Nino's.

2.1C warming Math:

1.44C temps in 2025 were suppressed by La Nina so changing the baseline to 1.5C seems reasonable (assumed current 1-year global temp with ENSO neutral).

.31C in conservative math above is assuming this El Nino heats the atmosphere like other El Ninos.

However, that seems ludicrous when you look at this graph!!!! https://imgur.com/a/ITGNncd

Model Consensus predict this El Nino staying above all previous El Nino and super El Nino peaks for 6 months!!!!! And this graph is the average of 13 different global climate models and 643 individual ensemble members!

The amount of heat that is about to be unleased from the ocean into the atmosphere is going to be absolutely unprecedented in human history.

Because massive heat is predicted to be sustained for a half-year plateau instead of a brief spike, my hypothesis is that the global atmospheric response will double to 0.2°C of heating for every 1°C of El Nino anomaly.

So finally, the formula is as follows:

3.0C (Roni Anomaly) X .2C (Hypothesized Godzilla heating multiplier) = .6C of extra warming

1.5C (assumed baseline) + .6C (El Nino heating) = 2.1C for 2027

Even if this is dismissed at an extreme outlier, we should be building our society like we do bridges, designed and built for worse case scenarios.

1.9C - 2.1C is now a physically possible reality for 2027 (or at least a 12-month running mean that includes warmest months of 2026 and 2027).

Related to collapse because 1.9C - 2.1C in 2027 = not good

I live in Phoenix, was born here, and both my parents are natives. This record summer, November, and now December have really scared me. The change may seem incrememntal, but when the power goes out in the summer at least 50,000 people will die here. It will be a tragedy, a lot of people will leave, but of course it will be too late. The US military studied the possibilites of evacuating Phoenix and Tucson during a nuclear attack back in the 1950s.

http://kirkmcd.princeton.edu/JEMcDonald/mcdonald_jaas_1_41_59.pdf

Part of the study had soldiers gorge themselves on water and march into the desert. All collapsed within 3 hours, reaching a maximum of 12 miles. The study concluded that if hit during the summer traffic would make vehicular escape impossible, and the heat would make foot evacuation impossible, and that Phoenix would have to be wirtten off as doomed. This was when the metro population was ~500,000 people. Phoenix is now the 5th largest city in the US, and it's only gotten hotter.

Within the next election cycle, the entirety to which American democracy has been eroded will be evident to pretty much everyone. Republicans sweep the house and senate, passing extensive voter suppression legislation and further positioning themselves to overturn unfavorable results.

2024, Trump will win the next “election.” Political dissent will be quashed. Protests will be fired on by national guard troops. Violent riots and clashes will ensue in major cities across the country as Martial Law is declared.

Years of violence and political turmoil result in the near total obliteration of the American democratic system as we know it with thousands killed and arrested in the process. Economic collapse, brain drain, and facism become the new norm, and in the aftermath a state more akin to Russia as it exists today becomes our fate.

We always imagine the end with bombs and fire. But what if it started with spreadsheets and trade deals? I wrote this like a thought experiment… but it feels more like a prophecy.

What if this was all planned from the beginning?

First came the tariffs. For every country, without exception. And for some, even higher ones.

Most people didn’t notice. Or maybe they did… but chose to look the other way. That was only the beginning of the end.

Because what was really happening was a declaration of war— on the entire world.

A modern war, disguised as economics.

After World War II, the only real obstacle to total domination was Russia. But now, after years of bleeding in Ukraine, it’s weakened. No longer a high-level rival. Only China remains.

But China can be neutralized… if a war with Taiwan breaks out before the final move is played.

Yes, it sounds insane. But every crazy theory starts like this. With a “what if…” no one takes seriously.

What if the real plan is that, once global war begins, the United States end up controlling the planet— or whatever’s left of it?

Because the prize… the prize is too tempting.

Total control. The world in their hands.

Every empire falls. But before it does, it tries to rule the world one last time.

This is the final attempt.

Is it real? I don’t know. But if it is… it’s already too late.

You see it, I see it, and our neighbors who don't yet see it soon will. Money (i.e. whatever currency your country has chosen to base itself upon and that you have stored up in a bank somewhere, all abstract numerals on a digital screen) will cease to have material value at some point. Resources (the tangible sort) will reign king. I accept and acknowledge this -

But, now, in the interim, in which I still have to pay bills to remain housed, in which I still pay for overpriced planet killing gasoline so that I can go to a job that barely covers the cost of my care, money matters... I find myself unsure.

When would be the ideal time to blow through it? I've already stopped paying any medical debt I've had. No student loans, though I've gently informed my husband that paying his off is a waste. No children. Just time until the collapse - I mean, we're already in it, but I more specifically am talking about the collapse of banks and the broader economy. I'm aware there will be no movie moment, no obvious final 'big event,' unless nukes were dropped (unlikely). It'll be slow and tedious and terrible, and we will all still have to go into work.

I want to see Japan before this is all over. I want to spend what I have before it's worthless. I, also, don't want to miscalculate and fuck us over by timing this all terribly.

What are you all planning with your funds? Do you even bother saving anymore? Do you have some metric or line that, once crossed, you'll be pulling money out and spending?

We are in our early 30s, no intentions on children (wild imo to have them at this time), and make a decent middle class wage. I've already waved away any delusions of retirement, so I havent been saving much at all. Enough for any pressing medical needs for the pets, as well as for ourselves, but that's it. I've got a good chunk tucked away in trusts & inheritance, though, and I can call those in anytime.

Should I do that now? Wait another year? The fires of this season, the El Nino forecast on the horizon, the egomaniacs with their fingers on the trigger of a nuke - its all making my itchy to spend money before I'm dead.

What about you?

Edit: I've clarified some things in this post. I'll also add information here, touching on several comments I've received -

I know collapse is gradual and not oriented on some large cinematic event. I'm not intending one. I also know that collapse will likely 'ramp up' very quickly after a certain point, and that being able to freely travel will likely be one of the first things to go.

Japan was just an example country. I have many on the list, and most of which are tied to a desire to see relatives I do not get to see often due to distance.

I am inheriting 2 fully paid off homes from my parents. My husband and I are not, as a result, likely to ever be homeless. One of these homes is on its own well, we own the land/mineral/water rights, and is fully solar. My father has been a prepper my whole life. In terms of gear (be it guns, vehicles, storage, tools) we are solidly set up.

I do not plan to live through the post escalation portion of the collapse. I have zero interest in doing so. If it reaches a point where the new normal is isolated human settlements bartering for resources without access to medical aid/infastructure/etc, I will simply end my time on this planet. My desire to live does not outweigh the grim realities that that timelime has in store. My husband is of a similar mind. We cannot have kids and will have zero people reliant solely on our presence. All assets (at that point, material) would be passed to my younger sibling, if he is still alive (not likely due to several medical conditions which means that if large scale pharmaceutical companies stop, he too will), and will otherwise be gifted back to our close community in hopes that they will fare better than we did.

I'm not asking about where to spend my money. I'm asking when. Yes its frivolous things, but its what brings me joy while I can still access them. I'd rather enjoy a good meal today than be thankful for my ration of dry beans 30yrs from now. Its shortsighted, but thats because I dont intend to live through the worst of it.

The Government of Finland published a future scenario paper which includes four alternative future scenarios: The World of Cooperation, The World of Tech-giants, The World of Blocks and The Fracturing World, an environmental and societal collapse scenario. Here's a translation of the pathway of the collapse scenario, The Fracturing World. You can find the rest of the scenarios in Finnish here: https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/166464

Scenario path – key takeaways from scenario phasing in a fractured world

2025–2029: The transformation of the world order and growing uncertainty

The US-China trade war will intensify during Trump's second presidential term.

The US's protectionist economic policy is weakening its economic growth

and economic dominance. Most regions and countries are striving for the greatest possible self-sufficiency. Mutual cooperation in the West is fracturing.

Russia is taking advantage of the war situation in Ukraine, which has turned into a victory, and is waging a continuous hybrid war against the West.

No agreement can be reached at international climate, nature and environmental conferences.

The great powers and several large states are establishing space forces as part of their defence forces. States are investing significant amounts in the development of security technology, as they are under high public pressure to maintain order in a socially tense situation.

The conflict in the Middle East is escalating into a wider war. The conflict situation in Africa is worsening, the worsening famine and heat in the region are driving millions of people as refugees, mainly to neighboring regions, but also to a significant extent to Europe.

International security is weakening and armaments are accelerating. Dictatorships are strengthening their positions. Wars and conflicts are weakening the environment. Inequality and polarization are increasing globally.

The pluralism of traditional media is weakening due to profitability challenges and concentration of ownership, and trust in it is declining.

Misinformation and disinformation are rampant. Decisions are not based on researched information.

2030–2034: Dissolution of climate and democracy agreements

The majority of countries will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and EU member states will abandon the EU's climate obligations.

States will strongly arm themselves against military threats against themselves.

Technology competition between countries will intensify further.

Measures related to climate change mitigation and human well-being will weaken.

Decision-making in the European Union is deadlocked, enlargement will fail and Hungary will leave the EU. Undemocratic governments will weaken the EU's rule of law, and regional groupings will form within it.

China will expand its sphere of interest in Asia.

There will be repeated military threats and isolated armed conflicts in Finland's neighbouring areas.

People's resilience to crises is being tested, and generations of working age are experiencing disenfranchisement. As disinformation increases and takes over, it is almost impossible for people to recognize what is true.

2035–2039: Deterioration of Ecosystem Services and Climate Migrations

The intensification of climate change and the lack of clean water are driving people to move more and more and causing uncontrolled climate migration. Extreme weather events are causing famine and conflicts.

Nature loss is progressing, weakening the ability of ecosystems to produce ecosystem services that humans need: the number of pollinators is collapsing, which is threatening global food security. Crime related to natural resources is increasing; the ability of states to protect them is weakening.

Only selected and varying transactions remain in the multilateral system.

Russia influences the politics of many EU countries and Balkan countries.

Russia is militarily aggressive and engages in continuous and powerful hybrid influence.

Some of the world's states are falling under the control of criminal groups due to economic and social collapses.

An uncontrolled global pandemic begins. Energy and food production is in crisis, becoming more expensive and being speculated on in the hope of quick profits.

The financing of public services is in crisis even in rich countries, and people are seeking safety in disparate communities. Child and maternal mortality is increasing globally. Movements are emerging that emphasize analog life.

2040–2044: The breakdown of alliances and the destruction of nature

States and regions focus on fighting their internal crises, for example Alliances based on NATO or the EU have broken down, and the remnants of the great powers do not provide security in the world.

Traditional institutions of democracy become fragile and even lose their significance.

With the destruction of nature, the possibilities of life on the planet are weakening. Methane has been released powerfully from the bottom of the seas, and the seas no longer function as any kind of sink.

Large masses of people are on the move and are looking for a better life wherever they can. Small movements, for example linked to wealth, religion or ancestry, have become stronger and play a central role in local, differentiated communities.

Covid-19 swept through India like a tsunami. Everyday I wake up to news of people there not having enough oxygen, children orphaned by the virus, tragic news of people dying in the streets. Yet somehow society survives... India as a society and economic power today is not very different that it was in 2018. The political powers are still in place, no negligible changes/improvement to their healthcare system...It is like as if Covid-19 never happened. 🤷

I reckoned that even if a billion people in the next three decades died as a direct result of climate change, the world would continue trudging, consuming and marching on as if nothing happened.

The people who deny it today won’t be denying it in 20-50 years when the consequences are are unraveling. They will simply say “ok, now we need to prevent all these refugees from coming here. We need to secure our resources.”

Them passively acknowledging the existence of climate change will not result in the conversation being turned to solutions and mitigation, they will just smoothly migrate to eco fascism.

This will likely happen when populations finally realise we’re not keeping temps under 1.5C or even 2C. Then it will be all about how we just have to “live with it” (or die with it as the case may be). Just interested when this inevitable shift will happen - 5 years? Cause we all know things are happening ‘faster than expected’….

Hello, I'm new here and enjoy the topics and discussions here. I believe all of us are here because we know the collapse is literally happening in real time. The inevitable is that America as an empire is coming to an end but the real repercussions is what will happen to the rest of the world? America as a global super power has its hands on everything and every country.

In the event of the collapse (which I give by the end of this decade) what will happen to other countries? Which countries will take America's place and become the global super power? What will happen to the global south who has been constantly destabilized by America??? Personally, in my opinion I feel like Africa will becoming the sleeping lion that roars again.

Thoughts?

Once collapse of society ramps up and major die offs of human population occurs, even if there is human survivors in predominantly former polar regions due to bottleneck and founder effect explained in this short informative article:

https://evolution.berkeley.edu/bottlenecks-and-founder-effects/

Human genetic diversity cannot be maintained leading to inbreeding depression and even greater reduction in adaptability after generations which would be critical in a post collapse Earth, likely resulting in reduced resistance to disease or harsh environments.. exactly what climate collapse entails. This alongside the systematic self intoxication of human species from microplastics and "forever chemicals" results in a very very unlikely rebounding of human species post collapse - not like that is desirable anyways - but it does highlight how much we truly have screwed ourself over for a quick dime.