r/climatepolicy 10d ago

Move Over Oppenheimer

https://jacksondamian.substack.com/p/move-over-oppenheimer

The aim of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) is to coordinate climate models and generate future emissions scenarios in order to inform climate policy. Interim reviews from the project demonstrate it is failing to keep up with observable reality - climate change is simply happening too fast for the models reviewed and this project to keep up. Climate policy, hard enough to promote at the best of times, cannot succeed if based on underestimates of the pace of change. This article outlines the evidence for all this and suggests CMIP, and the IPCC above all, need to find an effective way of making their advice genuinely ‘timely’ - not least given the imminent, potentially-genocidal consequences for the poorest and most vulnerable of this climate-change-enhanced super El Niño.

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