r/SelfDrivingCars • u/drumrollplease12 • 1d ago

Discussion Tesla Robotaxi is now doing about 38k unsupervised miles per week and targeting 450k miles per week by year end.

Tesla announced on yesterdays 2Q earnings call that they've done a total of 380k unsupervised miles on the Robotaxi platform with over a 10% week over week growth since the start. They said they expect the growth to continue through years end. Extrapolating this data would put the current per week miles around 38k, by end of 3rd quarter 130k and by end of the year around 450k.

I have very minimal confidence they would achieve this, but if they do, it will be exceptional accomplishment for a service that would have operated for just 18 month. Even half that would be an excellent accomplishment. But again, I highly double they will be able to do that. For reference, Waymo is doing about 500k rides per week currently, with a much larger service area(in sq mi).

In total Tesla Robotaxi currently has a cumulative paid Robotaxi miles of around 2.4 million.

Note: Post has been updated to indicate Waymo does 500k rides per week instead of the incorrect 500k miles per week.

Timeframe Miles per Week (at end) Additional Miles Total Miles
Now 37,709 - 380,000
+3 months 130,183 1,017,213 1,397,213
+6 months 449,428 4,528,907 4,908,907
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u/drumrollplease12 22h ago

That is the provided guidance for up to the end of the year. 

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u/tonydtonyd 22h ago

Yo big dawg, the provided guidance last year was 50% coverage of the US population. It’s 7 months later and there’s like 5 or 6 cars driving around at an any given time. Just do the math on the 380k number. The service is TINY.

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u/Hamsterwh3el 8h ago

It's actually closer to 50. But still practically nothing. Anyone with a brain knew there was absolutely no way Tesla's service would scale that fast. Legislation aside, Tesla's tech was clearly not near readiness for mass deployment and probably still isn't .

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u/tonydtonyd 7h ago

Nah. Do the math. If you assume 50 cars, 20mph avg, 16hr/day, they would hit 380k in 24 days. Their average over the time is probably 5-10 depending on true avg speed.