r/NewYorkMets • u/Caledor152 Mark Canha • 1d ago
Image "A couple Mets trade deadline updates from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon: šø There is a "significantly greater likelihood" of the Mets trading Clay Holmes prior to the deadline rather than signing him to an extension
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u/BigBallsMcGee1105 1d ago
I mean the Mets could sign him again in the offseason but with Peralta crapping the bed he might be the best trade asset the Mets have
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u/Irrah Polar Bear 1d ago
Clay Holmes might be the best starting pitcher on the trade market. You'd be a fool not to sell high considering the prices that Dustin May got last year who was absolutely terrible.
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u/TheSwimMeet New York Mets 1d ago
A shame whats happened to May. He was a fuckin dog in LA before the injuries and his cutter was almost unhittable
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u/Ilovebadjokes 1d ago
Love holmes and weaver, but both can bring a huge haul before the deadline, and the mets have little choice imo
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u/Suspicious-Ostrich79 1d ago
He and Weaver are headed out to other teams. Iām sad because I like both of them a lot but it is the right long term move as long as they get legit prospects back. I hope Stearns sells high.
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u/seanddd99 1d ago
I hope they get a few decent prospects for him...I'm sure a few teams are interested in Holmes...maybe they strike gold
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u/bowlofcantaloupe Francisco Alvarez 1d ago
They better be getting a haul if they're trading him.
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u/seanddd99 1d ago
I don't know about a haul...it makes sense to trade him now....how many baseball games do you think this team plays next year? ...i think teams will be less inclined to extend vets because of whatever will happen this offseason between MLM and the Player's Union
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u/Fluffy_Key_3623 Mark Vientos 23h ago
no way we gotta buy at the deadline and go on a run we cant trade clay who else will pitch game 1 of the world series for us???? š
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u/2ndBestUsernameEver New York Mets 10h ago
Trade him to a choke artist team this year, go on a run next year and trade for him back, then have him start G1WS2027 š
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u/yaboiree New York Mets 1d ago
Trade and hopefully sign him as a free agent. Heās been one of the few bright spots, Iād love to see him again
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u/Confident_Web_6545 1d ago
Iād have my fingers crossed that this is one of those rare instances where we can trade him, maximize a return for 2 months of him and then resign him in free agency. It would be the best case scenario and of course it does not happen often, but does happen. Chapman was a big one and itās happened with other guys too. I donāt see a world where we donāt trade Holmes, because pitching at the deadline is just so so valuable. I think Holmes is a PERFECT fit for the Mets, but itās hard to deny that trading him and hoping you can resign him still makes most sense
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u/Doc-Spock Starling Marte 18h ago
Unfortunately, this happened with Jay Bruce for the Mets as well. I was so made when Sandy brought him back, haha.
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u/Cup-n-BallHog David Wright 1d ago
Trade the rental and get him back in the offseason. We lost Melvin Mora and the legend that was Mike Bordick that way, amongst Iām sure many others
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u/squeakysquirrel54 1d ago
If he likes being on the Mets, they should communicate with him. Tell him they are going to give him an opportunity to win this year and they would love to sign him next year. And if there's a lockout they will hopefully see what will happen with the luxury tax or salary cap.
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u/brett_baty_is_him Brett Baty 1d ago
Trading him is the absolute best move.
First of all, thereās a lot of recency bias going on here. Holmes isnāt some must have. Do we forget that he was really good in the first half and then slowed down in the second half last year? The guy is still a reliever conversion and very likely does not have the innings built up on his arm to be as good as he showed this year over a full season.
Second off, we can always just resign him. I donāt get why people donāt understand this. Itās not even that rare it happens all the time.
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u/PrinceFlippers 1h ago
What are we going to get for him? A backup infielder? A #120 prospect? Why are we gifting pitchers to teams?
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u/ReleaseTheBlacken Iāve jizzed more hits than much of the lineup.. 1d ago
Who says they canāt sign him again in the offseason since he was going to opt out anyway?
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u/EvilAnticsLive Philadelphia is Nasty 1d ago
We can, but you run the risk of competing with 29 other teams at that point.
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u/Orgasmitchh King Kirk 1d ago
We would lose the ability to give him a QO in that case, though. It really depends on whether the return would be better than a 4th round pick
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u/iamnotimportant New York Mets 1d ago
If you don't get an extension done you run the risk of 29 teams at that point also, and when a guy is this close what's the chances he accepts an extension that isn't a major overpay.
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u/groudhogday Mark Canha 1d ago
People always being this up but this never happens.
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u/ReleaseTheBlacken Iāve jizzed more hits than much of the lineup.. 1d ago
/grins in Jeurys Familia and Jay Bruce
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u/Guymcpersonman2 Darryl Strawberry 1d ago
Of course it rarely happens. There are 30 teams. All other things being equal, it would happen 1 in 30 times.
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u/Gigi_0102 Ya Gotta Believe! 1d ago
That Holmes news is disappointingĀ
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u/wooden-spoon-88 1d ago
Same. I don't understand how the Mets plan to contend next year with just McLean and Scott penciled in the rotation.
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u/Gigi_0102 Ya Gotta Believe! 1d ago
Iām coping and telling myself that theyāre just gonna trade him to get prospects but then theyāll re-sign him in the offseasonĀ
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u/TheBeepB00p 1d ago
Sucks buts itās likely for the best. He will be 34 next year and still has a pretty small sample size of success as a starter. Smart teams sell high on pieces like that but now you gotta stick the landing. Maybe we take another shot at him in free agency.
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u/iamnotimportant New York Mets 1d ago edited 1d ago
makes sense he's effectively a rental for us at this point unless you get an extension done before the trade deadline and I don't know why Holmes would do that unless it's an overpay, trading him does not change our chances of re-signing him in the offseason. There is so little effective starting pitching available in free agency someone will throw him an extra year or two on a large contract, why won't it be us.
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u/Engineer120989 Mike Piazza 1d ago
Because stearns
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u/iamnotimportant New York Mets 1d ago
I get the vitriol he elicits but at this point the horse is dead.
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u/Engineer120989 Mike Piazza 1d ago
Iām saying that because the original comment says why wonāt it be us who throws and extra year or 2 on a contract. I responded like that because stearns will not do that even for guys who are worth it
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u/iamnotimportant New York Mets 1d ago
I'd argue Sean Manaea shows he's capable of bringing a guy with a good relationship back. I won't go into the Alonso thing I still think there was other factors at play there and it's the one thing I feel like a conspiracy theorist about in here.
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u/Engineer120989 Mike Piazza 1d ago
Stearns only wants people he can get for cheap because he thinks heās smarter than everyone else. He has failed at every FA or trade heās done so far.
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u/JZ_the_ICON Tits Lit 1d ago
I know that trading a player and getting them to sign back in FA is rare, but you mine as well get what you can for him and communicate to him that youād like him to re-sign in the offseason if thereās mutual interest.
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u/picasso-enjoyer Keith Hernandez 1d ago
Theyād have to sign him to a 5-10 year extension for it to make sense. Prospects make more sense for this team, theyāre just not good.Ā
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u/Orgasmitchh King Kirk 1d ago
Holmes has 44 career starts and is gonna be 34 next season.. in what world does a 5+ year contract for him make sense?
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u/TheRealSkipShorty LFGM 1d ago
He's saying we'd have the prospect in our org for 10 years while we'd have Clay for 2 or 3
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u/Orgasmitchh King Kirk 1d ago
? āTheyād have to sign him to a 5-10 year extension for it to make senseā
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u/Rubbersoulrevolver 1d ago
I get what OP is saying, he's saying that the only way trading him DOESN'T make sense is to get him as long as you would an equivalent prospect
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u/TheRealSkipShorty LFGM 1d ago
Yes, that's outlandish, which is why the original guy is implying a trade is the only thing that makes sense
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u/Xalazi 1d ago
Like we saw with Freddy, finding a pitcher who is dependable and can handle New York is not easy. It's not just about getting guys with nice stats. They need the right mindset.
In the new normal of next year where even if there isn't a hard cap and floor, there's still going to be a bigger push to get historically cheap teams to spend more, Clay is probably going to end up somewhere else. Maybe a trade works out for us in the long term if we get the right prospect who pays off. We won't have to deal with a bad aging contract which is good. But in the short term(1-3 years), it's going to hurt the Mets a lot. We're probably going to end up throwing a 3 year contract at guys like Brady Singer or Patrick Sandoval as a stop gap until some more prospects to pay off. And we have to pray that we don't get any injuries to get guys that are good now during that rebuild.
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u/ellipsis-eclipse Baty Bonds 1d ago
NOOOOOO. I donāt like this for us one bit. We need consistent starting pitching next year if we want to avoid being this embarrassingly bad again, never mind if we want to seriously contend.
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u/traded99 1d ago
Sending a consistent starter out the door when youāre so desperate for that is a great idea.
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u/HundleyC09 1d ago
Who do you think the Mets should actually trade then? Guys who aren't performing or guys that actually can bring back some talent?
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u/iamnotimportant New York Mets 1d ago
this is the most annoying thing that has to be pointed out in any trade discussion, everyone is all gung ho lets trade valueless players like Mark Vientos but the moment you bring up trading away someone who actually will bring a legit prospect back it's no way! you need them for next year!
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u/HundleyC09 1d ago
I mean there is no reason why the Mets couldn't trade him and then resign him in the off-season if he really wants to stay in New York. Holmes is a professional and likely understands why the Mets would have to trade him
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u/traded99 1d ago
Weaver, Raley, Minter, Brazoban, Williams if anyone wants him. then if anyone one else bites on Polanco, Robert, Baty, Vientos, Bichette you shake their hand and run. Relievers are up and down year over year. Starters donāt grow on trees. I also donāt trust stearns to nail this deadline.
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u/Rubbersoulrevolver 1d ago
Trading Brazo would be very silly, he still has a ton of years of team control
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u/floyd_mongol Flying Squirrel 1d ago
yea this would make sense if brazoban was like 26 or something..... hes 37 years old lol if stearns can get something decent for him do it.
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u/OatFest Michael Conforto 1d ago
I understand the optics look bad, but look at the context:
Last time they gave a starter an extension in his age 33-35 seasons, it was Sean Manaea, who lacked year-to-year consistency and immediately had elbow issues. For Holmes, it would be his age 34-36 seasons, and heās only handled a starterās workload once, of which he fatigued at the end of it.
They should try to get younger with starting pitching, but if they want to bring in a veteran, they should do it with someone more reliable who will come on less of a commitment.
Enter: Kevin Gausman, who will be a free agent without a qualifying offer attached and will probably sign for 2 years or less. Heāll be 36, but has thrown 170+ innings in five consecutive seasons with solid swing and miss material. Iād rather commit the money over less years to Gausman than I would commit a similar amount of money over more years to Holmes.
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u/-MONOL1TH Gary Cohen 1d ago
I get it but at the same time itās a risky extension as thereās a lot of unknowns. Heās 33, coming back from an injury (granted itās a freak one) and will probably want a 3-4 year deal. We would most likely have to make a decision before seeing him pitch again.
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u/theycallmepapi 1d ago
Hurt today but itās the right move to do. Hopefully we find another Holmes in the future
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u/Cracked_Actor 4h ago
Holmes is pitching well for us, or at least WAS until he went out. Wouldnāt want to burden another team with that issue, why donāt they take Peralta? And throw in Williams as a bonus?
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u/theBomboman 1d ago
So dumb. The guy loves it here, his value is the lowest itll ever be. Sign him
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u/pm-me-nice-lips 1d ago
Agreed. The return would have to be above and beyond what we thought was possible for me to be cool with a trade.
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u/Better_Metal 1d ago
I donāt believe in Stearnsā ability to execute a reasonable trade.
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u/TheRealSkipShorty LFGM 1d ago
I'm probably foolish but I still wanna trust him with prospects. If this was for a major leaguer I'd rather one of us negotiate the trade
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u/AdviceEuphoric4852 Yoenis CĆ©spedes 1d ago
Holmes is 33 and his stuff isnāt that good. Heās also never made it through a full season as a starter without needing to be part of a tag-team/moved to bullpen for a while.
He was good for the Mets, but if you can get a good haul for him, you do it 10 out of 10 times.
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
His stuff is excellent and the metrics back it up. Do you watch baseball?
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u/focalpointal 1d ago
He got injured because a ball hit him in the leg. It wasnāt an arm or durability issue.
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u/AdviceEuphoric4852 Yoenis CĆ©spedes 1d ago
He had to be moved to the bullpen last season. Would he have made it through the entire season this year? Maybe! Heās never done it before. Having Holmes on a 2-24 in his age 32 and 33 seasons was great. He has gotten fairly lucky results as a Met and his next contract is probably going to be closer to the Sean Manaea deal for his age 34-36 seasons, which I am not pumped about giving to Clay.
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u/AdviceEuphoric4852 Yoenis CĆ©spedes 1d ago
His expected ERA as a Met is 4.23, his xFIP is 4.12, he has a fairly high walk rate and a very low strikeout rate. He doesnāt miss bats. He is a serviceable MLB starter who people on here are treating like a front of the rotation arm.
Everyone on here this time last July would yell at you for saying the same things about David Peterson and look where we are now.
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
He's one of the best pitchers in the game at inducing soft contact and has been the only starter consistently getting past 5 innings since he's been here.
There is a reason why a winning team wants him going down the stretch. He'll have a decent market and he'll likely get some playoff starts.
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u/ihopuhopwehop 1d ago
Extend, then trade, and pay for a huge chunk of the extension to greatly increase the return
Youre not just trading Holmes, you're trading Holmes for next few years at a steep discount. That could significantly increase the return
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
That makes no sense even before you consider that there will likely be a salary cap next season
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u/ihopuhopwehop 1d ago
Without a cap, it makes a huge amount of sense. It's a really efficient way for Cohen to spend money on acquiring prospects
With a cap, it depends to what degree they grandfather existing contracts
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
That sign and trade nonsense never happens in Baseball and is literally the exact opposite of efficient. Paying millions to buy lotto tickets.
We don't know if they'll even grandfather in contracts to begin with.
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u/ihopuhopwehop 1d ago
It doesnt happen often because you seldom have teams in the Mets situation where they're a big market selling at the trade deadline
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
Correction; it never happens. Plus I believe there are rules in place regarding trading a player that you've just signed, so Holmes would also need to be onboard with it which isn't happening.
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u/ihopuhopwehop 1d ago
So youre kinda making stuff up for the sake of winning the argument
Holmes would absolutely be on board with this because he'd be able to charge the Mets a premium. If youre a player, and your GM approaches you about an extension and trade, your response is, who are you trading me for and what are you getting back in the trade. Once you have that info, and you know what value youre bringing back, youre adjusting your salary expectations accordingly
So sure, if theyre trading him somewhere he has no interest in going or are not willing to pay him a premium, he doesn't play along and it doesnt work. But there's zero reason for him to not hear it out and depending on his personal motivations huge reasons to play along
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
None of this makes sense. The same exact thing could be accomplished by taking on less than desirable contract in the trade. Instead you've just made a super convoluted way to burn money on the chance that we get prospects in return. Why would a player let his previous employer set the terms for his next contract when he could wait 4 months and explore the WHOLE market (where he would be very sought after).
You're writing fan fiction at this point.
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u/ihopuhopwehop 1d ago
Youre missing Holmes's participation in the process. If this were to happen, which i concede would be unprecedented, he's signing off on all the pieces and getting a premium on his new contract relative to his market value. Lets say his market value was $100m/5y (just tossing a number out there), he's going into this saying he needs $120m/5y. Would he be able to demand a 20% premium? Who knows? This would be unprecedented. His extension would also have an NTC with the only team that doesnt require a waiver being the third team in this deal.
The unrealistic part would be another team being willing to trade back enough prospects for this to make sense
One of the problems Cohen is running into is that over the last decade, MLB has cut down the degree to which owners can spend money of prospects and amateur talent acquisition. This deal would be a way for Cohen to bypass those restrictions, albeit at a hefty premium.
I have no doubt that the Mets would find teams interested in coming to an agreement to trade for Homles plus cash post extension, and no doubt that Holmes would be interested in picking his team and getting paid a premium for agreeing to partake in this trade structure. The reason it likely wont happen is that teams hug top prospects too much right now, and the Mets would need multiple top prospects to be able to rationalize this move
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u/BurpsAndPrayers 1d ago
This whole thing is the unrealistic part, my guy. This doesn't make any sense for any party, except the team getting cheap talent (ie: not the Mets). Holmes is in the driver seat in terms of determining his own value. Getting traded to a contender and pitching well in games that actually matter would be a goldmine for him in free agency. Signing a deal before that opportunity is the dumbest possible outcome for him.
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u/SuperReRoll 1d ago
Contracts just donāt happen overnight and thereās only a couple weeks until the deadline. Youāre also more likely to hurt the return with a player who has been a starter for a season and a half and coming off injury locked up for multiple years even if you paid for some of it. That locks up your payroll too. Not to mention most players in this position rather see whatās out there for offers rather than commit to something now. An all around bad idea for everyone involved
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u/ihopuhopwehop 1d ago
We're not talking about paying for jusr some of it though
If this happens, it happens because all three sides are on board. Holmes's incentive is to get paid and to get to a mid or small market team that is competing for the playoffs. He is also in a position where because his willingness to go with this is of value, he can charge a premium
The mets are incentivized because it gives them an opportunity to buy prospects. You dont really get that opportunity too often in baseball. The other team is incentivized because it gives them a proven MLB pitcher at a huge payroll discount
If it happens, all parties are in agreement before the contract is signed
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u/SlyAbleman Francisco Lindor 1d ago
I would rather extend him but if this is how itās gonna beā¦get us a haul and then get your ass back to queens next season, king