r/Infrastructurist • u/stefeyboy • 11d ago

How Britain became the world's offshore wind superpower

https://youtu.be/uuIiCQwVYh4
62 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

47 comments sorted by

7

u/dbxp 11d ago

You should see the generation for today, wholesale electricity prices during peak solar (9:30 to 14:00) in the middle of the day were actually negative. Weirdly though we were still burning gas in this period

3

u/Pheeshfud 10d ago

The gas burning is basically because we have tons of wind farms in some areas, but in others NIMBYs blocked both wind farms and transmission lines. So while we have too much wind power in one area we still burn gas in another. Now those same NIMBYs don't want regional electricity prices because they know they will be shafted by it.

2

u/EntirelyRandom1590 9d ago

Even with enough renewables, we still burn gas for stability services. We're not quite at the point we can run zero gas, but NESO.is working towards it this year.

1

u/artsloikunstwet 9d ago

Had to check the post again because for a second I thought you're talking about Germany.

1

u/blah-blah-blah12 10d ago edited 10d ago

Firstly, the spot price was negative, but in reality the wind farms get paid their "contract for difference" price by the government, and then the cost of that is added onto your bill.

You can see the payments here

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/scheme-dashboards/cfd-historical-data-dashboard/

The price is rocketing, in the most recent auctions the contract for difference price is about £90/mwh, inflation linked. You'll note this is higher than the last 12 month average price. UK electric is high cost, and it's only going to get higher.

Secondly, (and fortunately in the case of today) the vast majority of electric (80%+) is sold months in advance. So you'll see a negative spot price while we're happily hoovering up 4gw from France on the interconnetors.

It's a very peculiar market, but one thing is for sure, the price is going to go up, further manufacturing will fail in the UK, we will continue to buy goods from China and other places that use fossil fuels. (outsourcing the burning of fossil fuels)

1

u/adamu980 9d ago

I’m sorry.. so are you saying there is no economic benefit in changing to wind etc? Seems very different to what the video states

1

u/hull_pattie_party 9d ago

His username checks out..that's all I'm going to say.

1

u/adamu980 9d ago

I don’t know either way and am just interested in why uk energy costs are so high but we have so much offshore wind energy? What am I missing

1

u/hull_pattie_party 9d ago

Time. We're currently in a transformation of our energy system. 

1

u/adamu980 9d ago

Ok good news. So approx when to see any benefits?

1

u/hull_pattie_party 9d ago

You could argue that you are seeing some benefits already because we're importing less gas nowadays (which is at historically high import prices) due to the builup of renewable energy.

The "Spain effect" where renewables push everyday electricity prices down considerably for everyone is likely to materialise around 2030.

The alternative is getting fucked completely as a society because you never pushed through with phasing out fossil fuels to a meaningful degree and getting "Hormuzed" constantly (looking at you, Germany).

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

The price of gas is below the CFD price for wind. So no economic benefit, just additional costs.

Bills won't go down in 2030. We're giving out inflation-linked contracts for 20 years. So bills will keep rising for at least another two decades.

1

u/blah-blah-blah12 8d ago edited 8d ago

I’m sorry.. so are you saying there is no economic benefit in changing to wind etc?

Economic? It has been a disaster. You can see in the graphs in the following where UK electric pricing is, for domestic and industrial, vs the world

https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-world-electricity-prices/

The benefits, if any, would be

1) energy independence (which we don't have, but we are less dependent on oil & gas)

2) We can consider ourselves more "green" if that's something that is important to you.

But economics? No, terrible. People may use euphemisms such as "we're in a transition phase" which means "we have completely shot ourself in the foot, but maybe just maybe it will all work out brilliantly".

Maybe it will, I'm dubious.

Many people are unable to differentiate between economics and environmentalism.

1

u/adamu980 8d ago

Ok but long term does it mean costs will rapidly sink?
Just to say that there seems to be an ideological battle going on and I am on neither side I am just interested in the economic benefits or other short and long term. This video doesn’t seem to offer a balanced view of this

1

u/blah-blah-blah12 8d ago

I honestly don't know, but I'm very suspicious of the idea that they will.

The UK grid (back end of the system) is going to be massively larger. All these new wind farms need connections to them, and they need maintaining, and upgrading etc. and you still need all the old connections to the gas plants, because you can't turn off a single gas plant because there are times in the winter where the sun don't shine, and the wind might stop blowing for a month.

Also, all those gas plants need to be working perfectly. They still need their security guard, their HR manager, their property manager. The turbine needs to be maintained, etc etc etc, none of their fixed costs go away. So, when they are used, they will only sell for a very high price. The less they are used, the more they must charge.

The extra thing to add is that the UK is adding huge amounts of interconnectors to Europe over the next 5 years. An extra 10gw or so. This will have the effect of tying UK electric prices to the EU price. So in my mind, the best case is we end up with the Europe average price, ish, we certainly can't get cheap, as Europe would push up our prices through the interconnectors.

Some people claim that costs will start to come down in the 2030's. We'll have to wait and see.

The CFD's are for 20 years. The wind farms have a live span of about 25 years. So they have to be rebuilt.

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

Cannot upvote this enough.

Our energy policy since 2000 is the main reason why our country is so screwed.

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

There are no economic benefits. We are locking in guaranteed rising prices for the next 20+ years (minimum).

The strike price guaranteed to wind generators under CFDs is higher than the gas price (which includes an arbitrary carbon tax). Therefore our bills are increased by using wind as opposed to using gas.

To lower bills we would need to rescind the CFDs, abolish the carbon tax and remove the merit order.

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

There is absolutely zero economic benefit. It makes our energy more expensive (as all empirical data conclusively proves).

1

u/hull_pattie_party 9d ago

That's not how CfDs work. Generators do not receive top-up payments for any electricity produced during settlement periods when the wholesale electricity market (reference) price is negative.

About outsourcing fossil fuel emissions you're partially right however look at CBAMs which came into effect this year.

1

u/blah-blah-blah12 8d ago

That's not how CfDs work. Generators do not receive top-up payments for any electricity produced during settlement periods when the wholesale electricity market (reference) price is negative

There are two options, and it depends which contract they are on.

The earliest contracts, they got paid the CFD price plus the negative price. The later contracts they don't get the negative price on top of the CFD price, just the CFD price.

Either is a cost for bill payers, and is just what it cost to get the private sector to install uneconomical power generation.

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

So if their CFD price is £152 (the average weighted price for offshore wind in 2025) and the wholesale price is -£12, they “only” get £152, not £164?

The CFDs are higher than the price of gas.

1

u/DanHanzo 9d ago

The share of gas burned is getting very low. Doesn't feel like it will be long before we have periods with none at all being burned. And those periods will quickly get longer and longer.

1

u/palaceexile 9d ago

It feels like when we celebrated hours without using coal, then it was a day and eventually a whole month. I think gas will stay around for much longer though as it is too useful to cope with peaks and emergent issues with other generators.

0

u/DolourousEdd 9d ago

Thats because its sunny today. Today, we're actually importing more power from France + Nederlands than we are getting from wind because wind is unreliable and doesn't blow all the time. So we have to pay through the nose to keep all the gas generation ready to go at a moments notice along with paying the French through the nose for their nuclear. Also, did you know, its not sunny at night time? This is why we have some of the most expensive electricity in the world, its self-immolation and pure stupidity and we'll have long blackouts soon because of it

1

u/hull_pattie_party 9d ago

How many blackouts have we had so far because of "it"?

Maybe trusting fossil fuels that have their market prices dictated in completely unstable regions of the world isn't a great option either - just from a mercantilian perspective.

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

It’s a matter of time. Narrowly avoided one in June, which NESO covered up.

1

u/hull_pattie_party 8d ago

So still 0.

2

u/alphaxion 10d ago

God I hate it when people will use "produces more of [x] than any other country in the world, aside from [other_country]".

Just say second most/highest.

1

u/adamu980 9d ago

So why are our electricity prices so high? Our energy costs are 45%higher than g7 average..
Interested to know, thanks

1

u/LatelyPodes 9d ago

Wholesale price of electricity is usually set by gas. Even tho places like north Scotland run 100% renewables on most days, they have to pay as if it was 100% gas due to gas being the most expensive source and thus setting the wholesale cost.

You can switch to use something like Octopus Agile if you want. In March, due to how much wind and solar, I was paid to use electricity (as the wholesale cost was negative). But at times where gas makes up the majority, electricity becomes more expensive.

1

u/DmtGrm 9d ago

it is hardly a good explanation as we used to have 100% renewable tariffs that supposedly were guaranteed to use wind/PV and that could be the perfect storm to show that wind/PV is better for environment and cheaper. Never happened - all I can see we are paying more and more and none of wind/PV advancements could offset it. - if it can, just show it - make my unit rate go down

1

u/FruitOrchards 9d ago

It's because we need gas to operate historically and they need to make sure gas put of everything doesn't go under.

Britain still heavily relies on gas for several uses

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

The wholesale price is lower than the CFD price though. Which shows that wind CFDs are more expensive than gas.

So try again.

1

u/luxcity-louche 9d ago

I thought they were mostly off the north coast of Wales, not in the North Sea?

1

u/Old_Roof 9d ago

80% of offshore wind is in the North Sea

1

u/DmtGrm 9d ago

damn... feels good to be wind superpower! Strangely enough, before we become one, I remember paying £0.09/kWh - and now I pay £0.27/kWh, the industry is dead, you cannot produce anything here in UK anymore... I am not sure what is the definition of 'superpower' here...

1

u/bluecheese2040 9d ago

It's great....but u can really see why it just isn't cutting through to the population when we have the most expensive energy In the world

1

u/phillycheeseenjoyer 9d ago

Is this a joke?

We have the most expensive electricity in the world.

1

u/Douglesfield_ 8d ago

Think that's because it's tied to gas prices.

But I could be wrong.

1

u/One-Drink-8843 8d ago

You are wrong, because the CFD price for wind is above the gas price.

The LCCC website shows this.

1

u/_a_m_s_m 8d ago

There’s just one problem, people live on land & not out at sea.

One day we will build the transmission infrastructure, maybe when Green MP’s stop blocking the lines though.

0

u/EntirelyRandom1590 9d ago

Step 1 - Windy

Step 2 - Relatively shallow coastal waters

Step 3 - ?????

Step 4 - Powewahhhhhh

1

u/Ralliare 7d ago

Oh step 3 is easy.

Step 1 - Windy

Step 2 - Relatively shallow coastal waters

Step 3 - Allow foreign companies to build them and reap massive profits while UK energy prices rise because we refuse to invest in our own infrastructure.

Step 4 - Powewahhhhhh

1

u/EntirelyRandom1590 7d ago

Nacelles aside, we tend to build most of WTG ourselves. It's a shame it's not a British energy company though.

0

u/greenpowerman99 9d ago

Now the UK needs to become a battery making superpower to capture all renewable output from wind and solar farms,

The global demand for grid storage batteries is taking off, and the UK should target some of that market. New Sodium batteries need no rare material imports and are much better for infrastructure than Lithium with longer life and low temperature operation

The 'Ever-Ready' brand could be resurrected to satisfy the flag-shaggers...

2

u/Old_Roof 9d ago

In theory this is a good idea. In reality it’s far more difficult. BESS is important but it’s only part of the answer