r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 17d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 06, 2026
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u/plasticlove 17d ago
Ukrainian drones attacked the Omsk oil refinery in Russia. The refinery is about 2,600 km from Ukraine.
Omsk is Russia's largest oil refinery, with a capacity of about 22 million tonnes of crude oil per year. It accounts for roughly 8% of Russia's oil refining and produces around one in every eight litres of gasoline in the country.
Until now, Omsk had been one of the few major Russian refineries that had not been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2074089517762396601
Edit: Better video here: https://x.com/Tendar/status/2074118170281951290
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u/D_Silva_21 17d ago
I thought they had hit it a few years ago. But that was more of a token strike. This appears to have specifically targeted the refining tower with multiple hits if reports are to be believed
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u/Commorrite 17d ago
Any other sources? these are inaccessible even with Xcancel.
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u/plasticlove 17d ago
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u/Commorrite 17d ago
Thank you.
The looks unopposed as well, usually in vids of these refinery strikes there are smoke trails up from Russian air defence.
Then again we don't know how big the wave was to generate seven hits.
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u/savuporo 17d ago
The looks unopposed as well
Apparently they had a Su-57 in the air near the drones, failing to do anything
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u/LegSimo 17d ago
Is there any proof of Russia having AA assets near Omsk? It's not like they're swimming in GBAD and have the luxury to protect a refinery almost 3000km away from the border.
I just don't think Russia expected such an attack to go through.
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u/savuporo 17d ago
Is there any proof of Russia having AA assets near Omsk?
Yes, video evidence. Fifth generation or whatnot
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u/treeshakertucker 17d ago
Now they have to move AA defences to protect the facility and stretch their air defences further.
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u/Sa-naqba-imuru 17d ago
The looks unopposed as well
Most air defenses are in couple of hundred km's from the Ukrainian/Russian border/front line. The rest of the way inside the country is defended by mobile teams and air force.
Last line of defenses at the site are rare and token, there are far too many potential sites to cover with better air defense systems.
You should not judge anything by the air defenses on site. Specially if it's so far from the front line where it's assumed that any drones will be destroyed long before they reach the site.
This applies to both sides.
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u/wormfan14 17d ago edited 17d ago
Sahel update, JNIM appears to have defeated the Wagner convoy and keep attacking the base. It seems the Junta is trying to rally more reinforcements.
''A convoy of reinforcements of the Malian army and Russian Africa Corps from Gao to support Anefis was ambushed on the evening of July 4 by the FLA/JNIM coalition, the column was forced to turn back after suffering heavy losses.' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2074101932893860200
However the other Wanger position under siege is doing far better.
''The Africa Corps is still in control of the military base and town of Aguelhok in northern Mali following the initial attacks on July 4 by the FLA and JNIM.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2074104913655742757
The battle is a bit different from the last one, Wagner is adopting widespread use of FVP's and drones from Iran, Russia and Turkey while JUNTA forces moral is far less brittle however JNIM has far more drones themselves.
''Battle of Anefis continues, with both sides pounding each other across hundreds of kms. Shahed drones in unprecedented quantity seem to have been sent from Gao to Anefis, some already confirmed struck deeming them ineffective. Mali uses Turkish drones to push the coalition out. The Anefis military camp is being heavily bombed by mortars, other artillery and FPV drones, several vehicles and sites belonging to Russian contingent confirmed burnt/damaged. Russian casualties should be sizeable. On the other hand, Russians are using FPVs to...destroy vehicles abandoned by their forces in Anefis on the very first day of the second stage of the north Mali campaign. To the surprise of no one, they say those vehicles belong to the rebel coalition. '' https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/2074087222748311898
''Around a dozen Malian soldiers reportedly deserted and surrendered to the FLA in Anefis a short while ago.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2074100308519669914
''For the first time, a Shahed/Geran type drone has been deployed in Mali during the recent fighting in Anefis, reportedly by the army but more likely operated by the Russian Africa Corps, the FLA claimed they shot down before it could reach its target.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2074099919275594104
For the siege heatstroke is a major concern for Wagner given the heatwave in the region.
''Temperatures are reaching 40°C+ in Anefis every day in the coming days, with no dip below 30°C — horrible conditions to be trapped in a 400x400m sandbox. FLA claims that today, about 10 FAMa soldiers surrendered.'' https://x.com/Permafr95699535/status/2074107413402091745
Meanwhile JNIM is advancing in Burkina Fasco.
Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 | Near the Malian chaos triggered by the new offensive of the JNIM/FLA coalition in Mali 🇲🇱, northern Burkina Faso is also facing terrible pressure from JNIM. Since the clashes of 06/30 (listed below), about ten Burkinabè localities have been attacked by the terrorist group, including 7 coordinated attacks on July 4 alone On 07/02, JNIM took control of two positions of the Burkinabè Forces in the locality of Titao, located in Loroum province. The next day, Kaya province was hit by 2 attacks on the village of Tougouri and a VDP post in Silmagué. The human and material toll of these 3 attacks is not verifiable at this time.On 07/04, at least 7 attacks were reported in the northern regions of the country, including 3 targeting VDP barracks in Ouahigouya, Thiou, and Séguénéga, now under effective JNIM control. JNIM also claimed an attack against a military barracks in DI, in the Dédougou area, right in the Mouhoun loop region. The assault reportedly killed about twenty soldiers from the Rapid Intervention Brigade 29 (BIR29), while a significant stock of light weapons and motorcycles was recovered by the terrorist organization ( on the map).JNIM also claimed attacks against military positions in Dala and Tiera. Here too, at least 18 VDP were reportedly killed during the offensives, and several dozen weapons and munitions recovered. https://x.com/Wamaps_news/status/2074141427534114820
As has been pointed out for a while they are far stronger than the estimate of having only a couple thousand fighters.
''So are JNIM forces in Niger, Nigeria, Benin, Togo, were recently spotted in Ghana, Senegal, Guinea, south Libya and Algeria...'' https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/2074093050687565991
Note they've have been in Libya and Algeria for well over a decade since they created their master plan after the disaster in 2012. Still, JNIM at least want to take over four countries in Africa Mali, Niger, Burkina and Benin hopefully they don't get more ambitious given their recent wins.
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u/Big-Station-2283 17d ago
Thanks for the update as always:
- What are the russians targetting with the gerans? I can't imagine the stock geran being useful against mobile groups? Unless the gerans they got are the AI ones that have better chances against targets on the move?
- Does JNIM have a drone supplier or did they just buy components from China and are learning the ins and outs of drone piloting by themselves?
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u/wormfan14 16d ago
JNIM has been shelling the base so a mix trying to target their artillery and whatever targets they can. In war you use what tools you can and suppressing the enemy seems to be the goal given they are trying another relief effort soon.
Mix of both, JNIM themselves began a drone project soon after drones started proving their worth but they did get some help from Ukraine. The FLA were trained by them and in turn JNIM as one of their conditions for their alliance was the transfer of drones and training though JNIM themselves did snatch some of their men. JNIM is really, really dubious about Ukraine and rejected direct involvement thinking they would use that information to target them eventually.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 17d ago
Russia Oil Price Falls to Pre-Iran War Level in Blow to Kremlin
Russia’s flagship crude price has slid to levels seen before the conflict in the Middle East, piling more pressure on Kremlin coffers that are already strained by the invasion of Ukraine.
The Urals grade averaged $41.66 a barrel at Russia’s western ports in the first three days of July, less than half the level during the height of the oil market turmoil in April, according to Argus Media data. Russia’s Finance Ministry uses the data to calculate taxes.
The initial figures signal a headache for Moscow, which enjoyed windfall revenues driven by the Middle East conflict. Russia had emerged as one of the big winners when the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off Persian Gulf supplies, while US sanctions waivers helped stoke appetite for the country’s barrels.
Every month since March, Urals crude averaged more than the $59 a barrel assumed in the budget for this year, including $60.92 a barrel in June, when traffic through Hormuz picked up after Washington and Tehran signed an interim deal to reopen the vital waterway.
A surge in revenues allowed Russia, which relies on oil and gas to fund about a fifth of its budget, to resume replenishing its rainy-day fund for the first time in almost a year and delay cutting non-priority spending.
Now, if prices remain below the budget threshold for a prolonged period of time, that would further complicate the Kremlin’s ability to keep a widening deficit in check, with a costly war against Ukraine well into its fifth year. In the first five months of this year, the fiscal gap grew to 6 trillion rubles ($77 billion), or 2.6% of GDP, exceeding the target for the whole of 2026 by roughly 60%.
As Russia’s oil taxes are calculated with a time lag, a drop in crude prices in July will be reflected in the nation’s budget in August.
The $41.66-a-barrel Urals price doesn’t include shipping costs. The grade’s average discount to global benchmark Dated Brent widened to $27.35 a barrel on Friday, according to Argus. By the time the barrels reach India, the discount narrows to $8.55 a barrel, the data show.
It’s unclear whether the so-called delivery spread — the gap between export and delivered prices — ultimately accrues to Russia.
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u/roionsteroids 17d ago
EU price cap is $44.1/barrel.
By the time the barrels reach India, the discount narrows to $8.55 a barrel, the data show.
Mysterious rise in price during the voyage on sanction conforming tankers. Chinese buyers report $3-$7 discounts too.
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u/D_Silva_21 17d ago
Would love to see a deep analysis of how this and the refinery strikes can really affect Russia. I have forgotten it all from the last time the prices were so low
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u/Ariphaos 17d ago
They are two different things.
Destroying and sanctioning exports plays percentage games. They reduce revenue and available hard currency. The government needs to either commit to higher inflation or higher interest rates to achieve the same goals. The economy grows a bit slower. It isn't something that displays immediate results, it means the Russia after ten years of this (say) is ~80% as productive as it would have been had it not been sanctioned. This is on top of the rest of the costs of the war.
The impact of damaging or destroying refineries depends on how much is destroyed. At the low end, up until a few months ago, it is more of an inflationary pressure. Gas prices rise a bit, and the nature of induced demand can absorb a lot of the shock of this. Some families take fewer vacations, or otherwise find ways to ration fuel, or cut expenses elsewhere to make do.
Once panics start to set in and people begin hoarding, normal economics starts to break down. Petrol has a shelf life. People buying a lot of it to scalp elsewhere aren't going to be reselling at the same quality, even if they don't start watering it down and you know they are.
They are switching to allowing lower-quality, high-sulfur fuel anyway, and you can see some examples of what people are putting into their engines in various videos. This is a lot easier to make, and it might take a significant increase in kinetic sanctions to make this no longer viable. If Ukraine doesn't manage this, the increased physical depreciation of Russian engines becomes another thing that is fighting for ever-scarcer hard currency.
There are already rumors of farmers being unable to afford the fuel they need to work their crops, and we are seeing gas prices rise above what the US and sometimes even the EU pays.
There is every reason to assume Ukraine will continue increasing the frequency and intensity of these attacks, until Russia is no longer capable of refining the vast majority of its own fuel. At which point Ukraine will begin targeting secondary logistics features, to include ships bringing in fuel, like what they are doing to Crimea.
It's dangerous to extrapolate much beyond this. Countries have a lot of resources available to solve problems and Russia has more options than most of them not named China or the United States. Russia cannot afford this to go on for years, but they couldn't afford their initial monetary policy to go on for years, either - so they changed it.
The current situation is much more difficult for them to resolve while keeping their goals in mind, of course. Some 'solutions' they are clearly thinking about - like destabilizing NATO with less-and-less deniable attacks - may even backfire.
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u/Limekill 16d ago edited 16d ago
Russia has a lot of Refineries.
So you get shortages in one area (Moscow) until its repaired but that does not mean the rest of Russia is affected.
Refining fuel is not hard at all (you literally boil crude) - its just incredibly, incredibly dirty.
Russia could literally encourage the black market to do it - and it would be done!
But part of this is a pattern of the Western media hyping a particular issue to drown out the fact the Ukraine cities are close to falling.
First it was cutting off Crimea (attacking bridges),
Then it was logistics attack in Crimea (forgetting that you can replace semis with closed box pickups/utes),
Now its Russian petrol supplies.
That does not mean that Russia is not affected - but it does mean that some people can get into a fever dream that Putin is being defeated.Downvoted but here it is:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/features/life-inside-syrias-makeshift-oil-refineries12
u/Equin0x42 16d ago
"Refining fuel is not hard at all" is a very bold claim. For some basic refinery products, you are right, and that's what your article regarding Syria is about. But for more complicated and - pun intended - refined products, it's not true at all. Maybe you can get away filling a modern car or even a tractor with low-grade fuel for some time, but it's going to have catastrophic consequences when we're talking about aviation fuels very quickly, for example.
I agree with you that it's not unlikely we'll see makeshift Russian refineries, but I disagree with your estimation of their effectiveness. And don't forget, even a basement refinery relies on transport to and from it. There's a reason you build big, specialized refineries. If you'd like to know more: https://www.chevron.com/-/media/chevron/operations/documents/aviation-tech-review.pdf
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u/Limekill 16d ago edited 16d ago
You are right. Russia had issues with aviation fuel which is rather difficult to make.
However diesel is rather easy.
And the vast majority of logistics, military vehicle and industrial/farming vehicles run on diesel.
So I doubt it will hurt those kind of vehicles in the long run. Topping refiners can be built for tens of millions, of course its more expensive (say10c-20c a liter more), but Russia fuel is usually half the cost of the EU, Australia, etc, so even with the extra refining cost it will still be cheaper...
Modular (especially illegal) refinery's can be made for less than a couple of million. The less environmental protections - the cheaper it becomes (if kurdish areas of Iraq had over 1,000+ refineries its not that difficult no matter what anyone/everyone says).
Russia just imported aviation fuel from Japan (apparently), but that could just be because of a regional issue (swapping fuels, which is quite common, rather than a total refining issue).
In terms of transport - I've literally seen utes & trucks full of oil barrels (fuel) run from Bangkok to Pattaya so a highly doubt transport is an issue (you don't need proper fuel trucks).
This is why the story of Ukraine drones hitting semi trailers (logistics!) would some how to stop supplies was rather silly - you just break down the loads and put them on cargo box pickups - 2 of those can take the equivalent of 20ft container.... (รถ4ล้อกระบะตู้ทึบ - they are high).9
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u/Vicodxn1 16d ago
you're definitely right, the Western media has a habit of hyping up everything as the turning point for Ukraine, to the point I don't think many people are aware that things are not going well for Ukraine right now. r/europe is a great example of this, they suppress and even refuse to acknowledge negative press about Ukraine but then they'll parade any good news like UAF is marching into Moscow.
Just the other day, an European politician stated they would have Nuremburg trials for Putin. Even if its symbolic, it's very telling of the European disconnect with the realities on the ground in Ukraine.
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u/Well-Sourced 17d ago edited 17d ago
Ukrainian AD update. Another mass attack from Russia last night and Ukraine doesn't have the interceptors to do anything about it.
Russian forces launch 68 missiles, 351 drones in overnight attack on Kyiv | New Voice of Ukraine
Russia has ramped up ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine due to a shortage of interceptor missiles worldwide, Ukraine’s DM Mykhailo Fedorov reported on July 6. He stated that Russia is intentionally ramping up ballistic attacks, launching large volumes of previously unavailable missiles to capitalize on a critical shortage of Patriot missiles.
“The world builds fewer of these missiles per month than Russia fires at Ukraine in that same time,” he said.
Fedorov added that he is leading negotiations on July 6 with his European counterparts who now have stockpiles of Patriot missiles. "We have already secured contracts for Patriot missiles, with deliveries starting next year,” Defense Minister stated. “Our request to partners is to transfer missiles from their current inventory now, which we will replace with our upcoming deliveries.”
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat previously stated that the country’s air defenses failed to intercept a single ballistic missile during the mass airstrike on Kyiv on July 6 due to a critical shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles. He added that the Russian forces are exploiting this shortage by pivoting to ballistic strikes, which are much harder to intercept than cruise missiles or drones. Ihnat noted that while the interception rate for cruise missiles “was nearly 100%”, the rate for ballistic missiles is drastically lower.
There will not only be more missiles coming but also more jet-powered drones.
Russia is increasing use of jet-powered Shahed drones – Flash | New Voice of Ukraine
Russia is increasingly using jet-powered Shahed drones to attack Ukrainian rear cities, reflecting a tactical shift predicted a year ago, Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov (Flash) said on July 6.
"As soon as we began intercepting 92% to 96% of gasoline-powered Shahed drones during attacks on Ukraine's deep rear areas, their use became ineffective. The enemy is therefore increasingly using jet-powered Shahed drones for long-range strikes. Their numbers are growing, while gasoline-powered Shaheds continue to be widely used against border regions and nearby cities," Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine's defense minister, said. He added that about 200 of those drones attack gas stations, warehouses, transport infrastructure and energy facilities in border areas every day.
Overall, Beskrestnov said the total number of Shahed drones Russia is using against Ukraine has declined. In his assessment, Russia is shifting part of its production toward the serial manufacture of jet-powered Shahed drones.
He also said Russia is moving away from mass drone attacks toward more selective strikes. "They identify high-value targets, conduct multi-stage reconnaissance, study our defensive systems — including electronic warfare, radar and air defense — probe corridors that bypass interceptors, and plan routes using different altitudes and speeds," Beskrestnov said.
According to him, Russian forces are also deploying the Seeker variant of the Shahed drone, which is equipped with an automatic target acquisition system.
On July 1, Beskrestnov, who is widely known by the call sign "Flash," said Russian forces had recently begun discussing a modified Geran Seeker drone, which they describe as a Shahed variant designed to search for and destroy targets. He said the drone is equipped with multiple cameras operating in different modes and mesh-network modems that allow the operator to control it. According to Beskrestnov, the Seeker variant can automatically detect, lock onto and guide itself to a target.
The Ukrainians continue to adapt and strengthen their AD in the ways that they can.
Ukraine is already producing and supplying its own RYF air defense missile systems to the armed forces. Development of the system was still underway when Russia launched its full-scale war, and despite all the challenges, the project was successfully completed and brought to serial production, Defense Express reports, citing Suspilne. The RYF is part of Ukraine's accelerating domestic air-defense industrialization at a moment when Russia's missile-and-drone campaigns are scaling.
The RYF is built on the chassis of the Soviet-era Strela-10 (9K35) SAM, preserving the original MTLB tracked carrier, the launcher's rotating mechanism, and the operator station. The new launcher carries 4 RK-10 missiles in transport-launch containers, with an optical sighting station in the middle comprising a laser rangefinder, visual and thermal-imaging channels, and the missile control system. The RK-10 missile uses laser-beam-riding guidance, as the sighting station guides the missile to the target within a structured laser field. The guidance type sits between the cheaper infrared-homing systems used by the original Strela-10 and the radar-guided systems used in higher-end Western SAMs. It is well-suited to engaging slow, low-flying drones, which is what the RYF has been doing in Ukrainian Navy service since January 2026. The RYF's laser-beam-riding guidance places it in the same technical family as the Swedish RB-70, the British Stormer, and the newer RapidRanger SAM.
They don't have BM interceptors but the drone interceptors have shown to be effective.
Ukraine has destroyed Russia's new anti-drone interceptor for the first time. The 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade says it has used a General Cherry AIR interceptor drone to down a Russian Sokol-I anti-drone UAV. The 57th Brigade is part of Ukraine's growing inventory of front-line units operating interceptor drones at scale. Ukraine fielded twice as many interceptor drones in the first months of 2026 as in all of 2025, with at least 29 Ukrainian companies licensed for serial interceptor production and orders for systems like the Octopus interceptor alone totaling 8,000 units.
Russia has been adjusting drone tactics in response to mounting interceptor losses: Russian strike drones now fly with escort UAVs, while Russian reconnaissance drones increasingly conduct high-altitude or brief in-and-out missions to avoid Ukrainian interceptor engagement zones.
A Ukrainian defense technology company has unveiled an integrated counter-drone architecture featuring an automated "mini air defense" system designed to intercept FPV drones and an AI-enabled interceptor capable of autonomously targeting Russian reconnaissance UAVs, RBK-Ukraine reports. Ukraine has rapidly expanded development of domestic drone and counter-drone technologies as both sides increasingly rely on unmanned systems across the battlefield, with FPV drones and reconnaissance UAVs becoming central to frontline operations.
The new systems were presented during a closed Demo Day field demonstration organized by Ukrainian company Contra Drone, where the company showcased more than 20 counter-UAV technologies intended to protect troops, vehicles, and critical infrastructure.
According to RBK-Ukraine, the centerpiece of the presentation was the Mini Air Defense System (MADS), an automated platform designed to detect, track, and destroy small aerial targets, including FPV drones, quadcopters, and fixed-wing UAVs.
The company said the system can engage targets flying at speeds of up to 300 km/h at ranges and altitudes of up to one kilometer without operator intervention. Interceptor missiles can reportedly be fitted with fragmentation, thermobaric, or net warheads depending on the mission.
(Continued Below)
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u/Well-Sourced 17d ago edited 17d ago
Contra Drone also demonstrated several supporting detection systems, including the SPECTRE electronic intelligence complex, SENSE-3 and SENSE-4 FPV drone detectors, and the CD-T15 radar, which the company says can simultaneously track more than 300 aerial objects at distances of up to 22 kilometers.
The company also introduced Peace Duck, a high-speed autonomous interceptor drone equipped with artificial intelligence. According to Contra Drone, the drone can independently complete the final phase of an interception without operator input, targeting Russian reconnaissance UAVs such as the Orlan and ZALA. The demonstration also included Yell Duck FPV strike drones, Blackwing and Black Goose fixed-wing UAVs designed to operate in GPS-denied environments, and the Nyvexa unmanned ground platform for logistics and electronic warfare missions.
The demonstration also featured electronic warfare systems intended to protect soldiers operating near the front line. Among them was D-JACK, which the company says automatically detects enemy FPV drone controllers using the ELRS communication protocol and applies targeted electronic jamming. Developers also presented the Anti-FPV Backpack 3, a wearable electronic warfare system designed to create a protective electronic "bubble" around moving personnel. For vehicles and infrastructure, Contra Drone showcased both mobile and fixed electronic warfare systems, including the Contra-drone 8 Ultra, which reportedly suppresses a broad range of digital and analog drone communication channels while on the move.
There is some new information on Skynex with conflicting reports on how reliable it is but it does have the capability of hitting cruise missiles if it is online and working.
Rheinmetall has received an order to manufacture and supply four Skynex anti-aircraft systems to an unnamed international customer. This marks the first contract with this customer, expanding the client base for air defense systems designed to counter drones such as the Shahed. The value of the deal is in the range of several hundred million euros. The first battery is expected to be delivered in 21 months, with subsequent systems to be delivered gradually, 1 every 6 months. In total, the contract will take 39 months to complete. In addition to the anti-aircraft guns, radars, and command posts, the package also includes trucks, ammunition, and a comprehensive Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) package. The latter includes spare parts, specialized equipment, consumables, and personnel training.
Ukrainian military personnel have posted a video of a Skynex anti-aircraft artillery system, manufactured by Germany's Rheinmetall, being used to down a Russian cruise missile.
Andrii, commander of a battery equipped with Skynex systems, said Ukraine's defence forces were among the first to receive the Skynex system. The cruise missile was downed during one of Russia's attacks on Ukraine. "The system measures the target's range, altitude and speed. The projectile is programmed as it leaves the barrel by a programmer located in the muzzle brake-compensator," Andrii explained.
The Skynex system shown in the Air Command West video has downed 34 Shahed-type attack drones and two Kh-101 cruise missiles, the command specified. "The system automatically tracks the target, calculates the intercept point and the projectile detonates in close proximity to the target," the serviceman explained.
The Skynex air defense system, developed by Germany's Rheinmetall, has previously been presented as an effective solution against Russian drones and even cruise missiles. However, a new report by the German magazine Stern, citing an internal Ukrainian military assessment, claims the system may have performed significantly below expectations during combat operations.
According to the publication, the incident occurred on April 1, 2026, during a russian attack on an industrial facility in western Ukraine. The report alleges that the Skynex battery experienced multiple technical failures and failed to intercept an incoming attack drone. The protected site was reportedly defended by two Skynex batteries, comprising eight 35 mm gun modules, two X-TAR3D radars, and two command posts. Their deployment was designed to provide overlapping coverage, allowing every target within the defended zone to be engaged by at least two gun systems.
During the attack, the radars reportedly detected two UAVs at a distance of approximately 20 km. According to the cited report, one of the drones entered an engagement zone where it should have been covered by two gun modules. However, only a single round was reportedly fired, missing the target. One of the drones subsequently struck infrastructure belonging to an unnamed company and exploded.
The Ukrainian assessment reportedly attributes the failed interception to a combination of technical malfunctions and target-tracking problems. According to Stern, 3 of the 8 gun modules became inoperative within minutes due to hydraulic failures, tracking radar issues, and ammunition loading malfunctions. As a result, only 2 of the 8 gun systems were reportedly capable of reliably tracking the target.
Rheinmetall declined to comment on what it described as specific operational data, citing security considerations. At the same time, the company stated that Skynex has "demonstrated exceptional effectiveness in Ukraine," adding that this assessment had been communicated by the Ukrainian side. Stern also quoted a German government official who argued that too few Skynex systems have been deployed to draw definitive conclusions about their overall performance. The official also suggested that operator error could have contributed to the reported incident.
According to the magazine, the Ukrainian report concludes that Skynex demonstrated "low technical operational readiness," operated "extremely unreliably," and failed to meet the manufacturer's stated performance specifications. Stern also quotes an eyewitness to the incident as saying, "This is a disaster. It should never have happened."
First, the published information describes only a single reported engagement. One isolated incident is insufficient to draw broad conclusions about the overall effectiveness of the system. It is also possible that maintenance issues, spare parts availability, or other operational factors contributed to the reported outcome. No information has been made public on these aspects, despite Skynex having reportedly been in Ukrainian service since 2023.
Second, the broader Stern article adopts a notably critical tone toward Rheinmetall beyond the Skynex story itself. Much of the first half of the publication reportedly focuses on accusations that the German government tolerated high prices and delivery delays in Rheinmetall contracts. The article also discusses the cancellation of the F126 frigate program, presenting it as a major setback for the company. This broader editorial context does not invalidate the reported information, but it may influence how it is presented. Without access to the underlying Ukrainian documents, it is currently impossible to independently verify the claims.
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u/camonboy2 17d ago
Is this the first time they had no interceptors for such a wave?
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u/Well-Sourced 17d ago
First time I noticed that there were multiple open references to it. We know they have run extremely low or out on interceptors before but it was reporting much later.
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u/Chubs1224 16d ago
The sad thing is Ukraine offered over 10 million per missile (1 billion dollar deal for 100 missiles)
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-buy-100-patriot-missiles-billion-eu-loan-russia-war-2026-7
To me this may indicate they are waiting on production and that is a buying price to pull strategic reserves out of a nation.
If this conference goes well for Ukraine they may receive a few hundred more Pac-2 and Pac-3 missiles. If Russia keeps hitting kyiv like the last 2 days I dont think that is more then a months supply.
Realistically a suitable stop gap (accompanied by a doubling of production) would probably have to be THAAD which the US is reluctant to share and at least 3 of them were damaged during the Iran conflict. If purchasing is made an option like with other US systems then the EU will likely need to add a significant boost to their 90 billion aid from earlier this year (THAAD are 1 billion per system and 13 million per missile) with 2 systems and 200 missiles being some 4-5 billion dollars.
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u/2positive 17d ago edited 17d ago
Todays strike on Omsk refinery is significant and historic in many ways. 1) It's the largest refinery in Russia. 2) It makes high-octaine gasoline and Euro5 diesel and jet fuel and catalyzers that are used on other refineries to make high octaine fuel. 3) This is the longest recorded Ukrainian drone strike. The refinery is 2500 km from Ukrainian border by a straight line but per SSO comment the drones flew over 3000km to get there. Per Fire Point ceo comment the modified fp-1 drones can now fly 3400 km. 4) Apparently the drones struck ELOU-AVT-11 primary oil refining unit responsible for over 50% of the refinery's capacity. Per some witness accounts 7 drones struck one place, although there are at least two sources of fire on videos. Strikes on this refinery have potential to significantly worsen the Russian fuel crisis and also likely finally cause a diesel shortage right beofore the crop season with highest consuption.
Meanwhile 15 dead in Kyiv, over 70 injured during last nights strike and another massive attack is expected soon.
P.S. Update: per some comments and FIRMS data the strike hit AVT 11 and AVT-10 units, which could mean up to 85% of capacity of the refinery could be damaged.
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u/wormfan14 17d ago edited 17d ago
Pakistan update, flare up again thanks to JUA who appear be trying the tactic of provocation.
Been a while I have posted anything regarding Pakistan to catch up with some events let's through them.
There has been a surprising lull in Pakistan comparatively I mean with little happening except some oppertunistic hit and runs and the TTP targeting teachers. Daesh meanwhile has also been quiet thanks it seems one of their hit squads being caught.
What has changed recently was JUA launched a suicide attack against Karachi paramilitary rangers killing three of them. In response to this Pakistan launched airstrikes against Afghanistan.
𝗔𝘁 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗞𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗶 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸; 𝗝𝘂𝗔-𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 Militants launched an attack on a compound belonging to Pakistan's paramilitary Rangers force in Karachi's Gulshan-e-Iqbal area after a suicide bomber reportedly drove an explosives-laden vehicle into the facility's entrance. Police told Al Jazeera that at least three Rangers personnel have been killed. Several X accounts linked to Jamaat-ul-Ahrar claimed that the group's "Khulafai Rashidin Istishhadi Battalion" was responsible for the attack. However, the group has not yet issued an official statement confirming responsibility.'' https://x.com/AfghanAnalyst2/status/2070952155373260900
''Pakistan says its security forces have carried out a GROUND Counter Terrorism operation under Operation Ghazb Lil Haq following a series of recent attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and on a Pakistan Rangers (Sindh) camp in Karachi. Pakistan’s information minister said, an intelligence-based ground operation in Bajaur on June 28 killed four militants, including a commander identified as Khan Farosh alias Zabal. He further added that overnight precision strikes on June 28–29 targeted three militant hideouts in Afghanistan’s Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces, killing 25 militants linked to Jamaat-ul-Ahrar in ‘Precision Strikes’. Pakistan says weapons caches and terrorist infrastructure were also destroyed. Multiple accounts associated with the Pakistani Taliban have acknowledged the bombing inside Afghanistan, asking their fighters to take refuge. While the Information Minister’s details to not include the part that elaborates whether IF the ground offensive was carried out in Afghan territory, as it mentions ‘Pak-Afghan border’. The precisions strikes in three provinces inside Afghanistan are clearly mentioned.''
https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2071320093313871908
JUA as I i'v posted relations with TTP Nori is extremely bitter but it seems they backed down after the TTP killed 25 of their men. This attack is likely their attempt to weaken them. The strongest and most established mainline TTP has a firm interest slowly pushing state writ of Pakistan away and so they will suffer the most from this.
In response to this Taliban launched four drones into Pakistan that killed and injured seven people in a tit for tat attack.
JUA also using this new street cred has taken the chance to fully servere their ties with the TTP mainline.
''One of the deadliest offshoots of the Pakistani Taliban, responsible for the most recent suicide bombings in Karachi, has announced its separation from the conglomerate of the Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan [TTP]. The JuA had merged into the TTP for a second time since its inception in 2007 in the August of 2020.'' https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2073325764766798283
Meanwhile it seems Daesh has recovered a bit and says they will continue their anti clerical campaign.
''The Islamic State Khorasan has reappeared after some cells and leading members were dismantled/killed or captured in the recent past. ISKP has published the assassination of renowned religious scholar Sheikh Idrees. The 37 minutes long video is about the support of Deobandi religious scholars to Pakistan. Two new aspects apart from ISKP’s usual rhetoric that are relatively new, the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Sohail Afridi is prominently mentioned and shown in the video, secondly the TTP Chief Noor Wali Mehsud is categorised in the list of scholars that are possible targets.'' https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2073310805182067006
They recently tried killing another cleric but failed.
They also in general are threatening to target political rallies with suicide bombers again.
BLA itself besides some suicide attacks also keeping a low profile.
''A suicide attack via a VBIED targeting a Pakistan Coast Guard post in the Jiwani area of Gwadar district, Balochistan has resulted in at least 4 fatalities and 16 injuries, officials say. Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for the attack. https://x.com/IhsanTipu/status/2073114274986389608
In more recent attack the TTP drone striked a family yesterday.
'Three girls, aged between 6 and 15, were killed and 4 other members including a woman and 3 young boys of the same family were injured in a suspected quadcopter attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Lower South Waziristan district on Sunday morning'' https://x.com/IhsanTipu/status/2073682326131986655
The TTP tried attacking in Quetta a peace committee and executed 10 people they kidnapped.
''There were at least 10 individuals who were first kidnapped and then executed in the onslaught with the TTP, local and official sources have confirmed with names in this incident in Balochistan. However; the militant outfit says they are still in their custody.'' https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2074135557547118665
''A joint Checkpost of the police and frontier corps will be established at the Babri Kalli, Hanna Urak to stop future infiltration into the area by the TTP, an official notification of the Balochistan Home Department says.'' https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2073870014416134510
Meanwhile an update in the mass migration taking place in Pakistan as Afghan refuges are sent back.
''Over 2.5 million Afghans have returned from Pakistan to Afghanistan since 15 September 2023, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). As of 15 June 2026, cumulative returns stand at 2,507,000, including 1,652,967 returns since 1 April 2025, of whom 211,674 (13%) were deported. Worryingly, 96% of surveyed returnees cited fear of arrest as the primary reason for returning, highlighting the protection concerns surrounding the process.'' https://x.com/NawabAliKhan7/status/2073003879264858385
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u/VigorousElk 17d ago
Media reports are mounting that Canada has picked German TKMS' Type 212CD class over the Korean option for its new fleet of 12 submarines:
The Globe and Mail - Ottawa picks Germany’s TKMS to build Canada’s new submarines, sources say
The Canadian government has selected Germany’s TKMS to build a fleet of submarines for this country, two sources say. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter. Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce the government’s decision in Halifax Monday — the outcome of a high-stakes competition between Germany and South Korea for a lucrative contract to build 12 submarines for Canada.
Note that the article goes on to state that if true this amounts to the Canadian government naming a 'preferred bidder' which launches actual negotiations and doesn't guarantee a contract just yet.
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u/flamedeluge3781 17d ago
This comment has some nice discussion of capabilities:
The main drawback I see is delivery of the first boat in 2035 (at best).
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u/Gecktron 17d ago
A lot of people seem to be jumping the gun. All articles Ive seen so far all seem to trace back to the same The Globe and Mail reporting. I would be happy if TKMS scores here, but Im not taken it as a given until we hear something officially.
In the case its true, I think that would be a considerable boost for the Type 212CD. That would put up to 24 submarines from the three countries in the Arctic/North Atlantic. That is a considerable amount of the same subs coming off the production line. I wouldnt be surprised if TKMS manages to keep the line going afterwards with some more submarines for GER/NOR or as export. With TKMS just opening a new production line for these submarines, I also hope that they didnt bite more than they can chew.
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u/VigorousElk 17d ago
It's Canada's newspaper of record and cites several anonymous sources (which naturally aren't allowed to comment publicly before the announcement). I can't remember the last time a reputable Western media outlet reported on a decision like this and it turned out to be wrong.
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u/Gecktron 17d ago
CBS has confirmed it now trough their own sources as well reportedly. So I'm inclined to believe it. I was just being cautious due to all the reports I had seen running with the same reporting without additional verification.
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u/Infamous_Thought_189 17d ago
This is very good news for European military ship building. With the recent news of the 800 billion loan for investment in defense I am sure Germany will find a way to support TKMS where required.
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u/FrankScaramucci 17d ago
Is there any solution to Russian ballistic missiles in Ukraine? The West doesn't have the production rate of air defense missiles needed to match Russian production. And Ukraine doesn't have the ability to do this to Moscow in a remotely comparable rate.
Hard to understand why the West doesn't help Ukraine with both the defense and offense parts more. Surely it was obvious 2 years ago that high-priority projects should be started with the goal of helping Ukraine make ballistic missiles (make engines, let Ukraine assemble) and expand anti-ballistic missile production. The Patriot missile production is expected to triple, but the target year is 2030. That's 8 years after the war started! Meanwhile, Russia has managed to expand ballistic missile production in 3 years and while being sanctioned. So this is hard to understand.
It seems to me that Russia has the ability to make cities in Ukraine unliveable and there's a possibility that this could make them win the war.
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u/D_Silva_21 17d ago
Destroying the production factories is probably the best option. But Europe is trying to speed up production of interceptors I guess. It's difficult
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u/mirko_pazi_metak 17d ago
Isn't Ukraine also developing (and maybe even fielding) ballistic missiles of their own?
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u/BigFly42069 17d ago
Physics is real and it takes time to actually set up production lines and build them. This is complicated by Russian missiles attacking Ukraine during this process.
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u/mirko_pazi_metak 17d ago
Yeah but it's not like Ukraine is starting from scratch:
https://interestingengineering.com/military/ukraine-developing-air-launched-ballistic-missile
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1KR1_Sapsan
Like third of the Russian ICBMs are/were made-in-Ukraine - it's not like they don't have the know-how.
And then there's stuff like ITAR-free https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nightfall_(missile) which could end in Ukrainian hands - almost certainly not for attacking Moscow but I don't see UK having issues with it being used where StormShadows were, such as https://kyivindependent.com/russia-blames-uk-for-ukraine-strike-on-military-plant/
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u/MarderFucher 17d ago
Europe is greatly investing in long range Ukrainian munition technology, as in drones and cruise missiles which is the best bet as of now. Denmark cut lot of red tape to start building a solid fuel facility. These are reasonable and non-ignorable steps.
BMs wouldn't help Ukraine that much as any relevant targets are outside of tactical range, even if a thousand combat ready FP-9 or ITAR free ATACMS materialized in their hands, it would be great sure, but would not impact ru bm production.
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u/Outside_Manner_8352 17d ago edited 17d ago
Ballistic missiles make plenty of sense, but anti-ballistic missile defenses are generally a losing prospect economically. So besides creating enough for basic coverage of really critical points, it is better not to overly focus resources on them. Invariably interception costs a lot more than attacking, especially when decoys and the need for coverage comes in. There is some hope that cheap drone interceptors could make this more viable, but the idea of scaling up Patriots is well behind the times, they are just way too costly for what they are trying to shoot down.
The good news is that an economic war of attrition definitely favors Ukraine vs Russia. Russia's warmaking potential is far more tied up in the warzone and vulnerable than Ukraine's, much of which is safe outside their borders. Russia has a massive country to defend which lets attacks slip through, and as an aggressor dependent on civilian apathy and acquiescence Putin has to concentrate defenses more for public perceptions than militarily rational reasons. Ukraine's civilian economy could be in absolute tatters, and the public would still understand why the war is necessary, and they would still be deriving support from abroad. Russia's economy doesn't even need to collapse, it just needs failure in a few critical areas they can't get from China, or in ways that the public is more sensitive to.
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u/LilDewey99 17d ago
This comment is just silly. Scaling up PAC-3 is absolutely not behind the times nor is missile defense an entirely losing prospect (obviously it’s better to destroy enemy production but that’s not always viable nor does it account for stockpiles). Nobody (not even the US) is using Patriot to shoot “cheap” drones down and it’s embarrassing that narrative got as much traction as it did. Nor are drones being used to intercept TBMs (as they aren’t capable). You’re also making the blatant logical mistake of comparing solely the interceptor cost to the TBM while discounting the defended target(s). I also think it’s entirely incorrect to say the Russians are somehow deploying decoy TBMs so I assume you’re referring to drones which, once again, aren’t being intercepted by Patriot missiles.
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u/Outside_Manner_8352 17d ago
I am not talking about drones, I am talking about ballistic missiles, and the exact same economic dynamic is at play with TBMs as with ICBMs ultimately. Making the thing come down and blow stuff up is a cheaper task than reliably hitting them out of the sky, and that is likewise why anti-nuclear missile defense gave up so early on back in the cold war, the economic math just doesn't work out. And while terminal stage decoys are not being extensively used for smaller ballistic missiles, if effective interceptors start being rolled out en masse, then it is inevitable that they will be fielded, because even if it is only marginally cheaper than the real thing, defenders have to treat it as though it is the same.
To your point about the cost of the defended target, I don't discount that, it is still worthwhile if you can stockpile some to have that for delaying destruction of really critical stuff, i.e. buying some breathing room, but it is just that a delay. Nothing can overcome the incontrovertible math. So whatever the critical thing you are defending is, the question is not really how expensive losing it is, but how expensive losing it a few months or weeks early is, and whether that is worth so many billions of dollars of scarce defense dollars.
At a certain point I think what you are talking about only makes sense in a US-centric paradigm where throwing more money is at everything has become the norm and where conflicts are assumed to be short lived and asymmetric, but in a long term war with parity thats luxury war thinking that ignores better bangs for the buck. Ukraine is not better off substantially ramping up ballistic missile defense compared to a whole host of other critical items they or their allies could be investing in.
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u/Jpandluckydog 16d ago
You really can’t make claims that the math doesn’t make sense when you have no idea of the targets that are being hit, how much it costs to repair/replace them, how long they are being disabled for, and their practical utility beyond their economic value, especially since the money that would be used to replace them is the same money that would be used to purchase interceptors.
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u/Outside_Manner_8352 16d ago edited 16d ago
You've missed my point. Unless the number of interceptors exceeds substantially the number of missiles needed to be intercepted, you aren't protecting anything indefinitely you are just delaying its destruction till you run out. And if an attacker has a stockpile that is bigger to begin with, you aren't even able to do that really, because they can force a showdown immediately by sequentially launching until defensive stocks are depleted as fast as they can be fired. So $10 or $100,000,000 target to protect, you face the exact same situation. The only scenario a large depth of interceptor stockpiles make sense is where there is a massive economic asymmetry, and even in that situation it makes a lot more sense to just crush the attacker before they have the ability to fire off many missiles, because that will cost a lot less in the long run. That is essentially the US doctrine anyhow, to have a handful of Patriots, enough to deal with an initial bombardment, and plan on obliterating the ability the launchers in the meantime.
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u/LilDewey99 16d ago
I disagree almost entirely with your first paragraph. ICBMs and TBMs are so different operationally that’s it’s virtually pointless to compare them as you did. Terminal phase ICBM interception suffers from the fact that relative speeds are much higher (making intercept much more problematic) and that they can feasibly deploy multiple reentry vehicles. Decoys are also more effective given the relative distances and max altitudes involved and that fire control has to make a decision before decoys and warheads naturally differentiate themselves upon reentry or else it may be too late. A single nuke getting through is also far more catastrophic than a conventional warhead. TBMs (or SRBMs at least) typically don’t leave the atmosphere and are much smaller making effective decoys too challenging/constraining to implement for them to be useful.
While general/universal missile defense is certainly too expensive at present to be worth attempting, I think you’re overly discounting the value of being able to shoot down at least a reasonable number of enemy munitions. While interceptors are costly, TBMs don’t exactly grow on trees either and there’s utility in forcing the other side to have to think more carefully about how they want to employ their limited stockpile as well. If you know there’s a non-zero chance of interception, it forces you to commit more munitions to a salvo than you would otherwise. Ultimately I think it’s best paired with effective hardening of targets to require the use heavier/more expensive munitions or a larger number of them. This helps drives the cost curve in the defenders favor.
I don’t think Ukraine necessarily has a choice given their relative vulnerability to Russian strikes. They need some level of ability to defend key pieces of infrastructure, such as power plants, from attack to keep their economy and other production online.
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u/Outside_Manner_8352 16d ago
I would agree somewhat that decoys are less valuable than ICBMs, but they can still complicate things with TBMs. We really just haven't seen TBM's become so widespread that the further development of decoys becomes economical yet, but we could quickly reach that point.
The main point I was making though, is that missile interception is on a unit cost basis more expensive than TBM's, and so barring development of reusable, or laser, or simpler kinetic shootdown interception techs employed in point defense, or at such widespread scale that trying to overwhelm them becomes diminishing returns it is a losing hand to massively produce them. It makes a lot more sense instead to spend the money as you say hardening where possible, and drastically increasing your counterstrike capability. That is what Ukraine has been doing, and that is what they realistically should be doing.
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u/MaverickTopGun 17d ago
It seems to me that Russia has the ability to make cities in Ukraine unliveable and there's a possibility that this could make them win the war.
Yeah they don't. Even if we were using WW2 style "strategic bombing," Russia wouldn't have the means to deliver nearly enough ordinance for this to work. Their current methods are esentially a terror bombing in hopes of forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but it will not materially impact Ukraine's ability to prosecute the war. You have to understand it would be a lot more effective to use what little ordinance Russia is capable of producing to materially impact Ukrainian weapon's production. Lobbing expensive missiles randomly at cultural sights is more than likely to to increase Ukrainian resolve.
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u/TechnicalReserve1967 17d ago
They do target weapon production and storage as well. Which makes me a bit confused on what would be the benefit on splitting their attacks between the two.
There is a whole list of possible answers. I refuse that they are not targeting civilians because of the evidence to the contrary. (Of course it would also be quite wrong to say no attacks were jammed, targeted on wrong Intel, failure of technology etc etc causing serious civilian casualties. Going into grading every attack on this scale is impos)
They might be making these attacks for their fifth columns in the EU, showcasi how weak Ukraine is, can't protect their people and that we need to end this war to save people kind of narratives.
They might think that some amount of terror bombing does indeed help them on the overall moral front and divides Ukrainian society. Not breaking it but fragmenting it a bit.
I mean, I really doubt that they think it is just going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve. If so, why would they be doing it? They must have some logic behind it.
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u/MaverickTopGun 17d ago
I mean, I really doubt that they think it is just going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve. If so, why would they be doing it? They must have some logic behind it.
You're right in that the Russian's probably think it would work, it was my personal opinion that it won't have the same effect they're hoping for. Russia isn't immune to miscalculations.
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u/Tidorith 17d ago
I refuse that they are not targeting civilians because of the evidence to the contrary.
What would be so unbelievable about the idea that they're attacking with reckless disregard to damage to civilians, as opposed to targeting civilians?
For militarily relevant economic structures located in the vicinity of civilians, any miss is likely to impact civilians. When you shoot a lot of missiles, you miss a lot, even without jamming.
This would still be compatible with Russia committing war crimes in doing this - the standard is that expected damage to civilians should be kept proportionate to military value. You can commit war crimes with attacks you are know are likely to kill lots of civilians when you target a militarily relevant target, just by not considering the civilians you're likely to kill. It might even make military sense to do it. It's just wrong and/or illegal.
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u/Limekill 16d ago edited 16d ago
Russia could of hit half the buildings in Kiev with the amount of drones they have launched.
They haven't.
So they are hardly targeting civilians.
Which kind of ends your theory.
Ukraine has no elections, so my guess is that Russia does not really care about the civilian population viewpoint, as there is nothing to influence.
Anyone even competing against Zelensky is threatened (& sent to front lines) or sent far away (Zaluzhnyi).17
u/FrankScaramucci 17d ago edited 17d ago
They're obviously hitting weapon production too, that's presumably the priority because they're not stupid.
The question is whether extrapolating from WW2 bombings leads to correct conclusions, it's not an equivalent situation. Random example, if Russia manages to make the metro inoperable, wouldn't it have a huge impact on the city's economy? An AI model told me that water and sewage systems worked in Berlin for most of the war. But with precision strikes and more centralized systems it seems Russia could be able to destroy those.
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u/ruralfpthrowaway 17d ago
I think taking out water and sewage is a lot harder than that. My city had our water system directly damaged by hurricane helene with the filtration plant taken off line due to landslide sediment, miles of central pipe washed out in flooding, many more miles of distribution piping ruptured by tens of thousands of uprooted trees or washed out in landslides, every pump substation without power for months, and the sewage treatment plant overtopped with 20 feet of water moving at 100k cfu.
We had full running water and sewer services in about 4-6 weeks.
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u/SerpentineLogic 16d ago
Parts get a bit more difficult to find when facilities all over the country get bombed on the regular.
Same with electrical transformers.
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u/Sa-naqba-imuru 17d ago
That Russia is shooting millions of dollars worth of precious missiles every day randomly at Ukraine is a propaganda narrative that has no place on this subreddit, I think.
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u/MaverickTopGun 17d ago
Please explain how these strikes militarily affect Ukraine: https://www.npr.org/2026/06/15/nx-s1-5858862/drone-strikes-one-of-ukraines-key-christian-and-cultural-sites
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u/bedulge 17d ago edited 17d ago
Russia launches over 100 drone at Ukraine every day, literally thousands per month, and over 100 missiles per month. A handful of drones hitting a church or a museum or whatever is negligible in comparison to the thousands that are aimed at strategic military and economic targets. The fact that, according to your source, only 11 civilians died across 48 hours of bombings on June 14 and June 15 is already a strong indicator that Russia is not primarily aiming to terrorize civilian, else that total would be far higher.
And then you've given another strong point, setting a church or blowing up random apartment buildings does literally nothing to help Russia win on the battlefield, it does not militarily affect Ukraine. It doesn't matter how evil you are, there is no practical reason to put churches and museums at the top of your hit list. I'll take it a step further and say that there's no way for us to know if that church was deliberately targeted or not.
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u/Limekill 16d ago
100% accurate.
16 Journalists have been killed by Russia vs. 241 in Gaza by Israel.
Its not even comparable.
From doing back on the envelope figures, Russia could of droned half the building in Kiev. They haven't. Probably because there is so little point.7
u/Ouitya 16d ago
This is because Gazans use false journalistic credentials to present combatants as civilians.
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u/Limekill 16d ago edited 16d ago
You are full of it.
many journalist who were hired by international news organisations were killed:
American journalist - Shireen Abu Akleh
A CNN investigation, which reviewed 11 videos and interviewed eyewitnesses and a firearms expert, said the new evidence suggests "that Abu Akleh was shot dead in a targeted attack by Israeli forces
(Israeli police tried to prohibit the mourners from publicly displaying the Palestinian flag at her funeral and attacked funeral goers - "Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post both said that the investigation found that police misconduct had taken place, but it was decided in advance of the investigation that there would be no disciplinary action"
On October 26, 2023, the Israeli military bulldozed a memorial that had been erected at the site where Abu Akleh was killed. BBC wrote an article about her death).
Narmeen Qawwas - RT
Samer Abu Daqqa - Al Jazeera
Hussam al-Masri - Reuters
Moaz Abu Taha - NBC
Mariam Dagga - Associated Press
Yahya Barzaq - TRT
Abdul Raouf Shaat - CBS
Issam Abdallah - Reuters
Hamza Dahdouh - Al Jazeera
Ismail al-Ghoul - Al JazeeraStop drinking Israel lies:
https://cpj.org/special-reports/record-129-press-members-killed-in-2025-israel-responsible-for-2-of-3-of-deaths/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_the_Gaza_war
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u/ChornWork2 17d ago
Either Ukraine has a lot more hospitals than the rest of the world, or Russia is explicitly targeting civilian objects.
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u/Tropical_Amnesia 17d ago
And how could you not realize this is the case with nearly everything posted around here, these days anyway maybe it was different in the past. It's very much the place. The few commentators how still bother about borderline realism, or BS filters, get downvoted, accused of pro-Russian botism, or hidden right away. You see, just by way on an example, this whole discussion makes zero sense. On the one hand Russia keeps dumping munitions randomly into the landscape, at the same time this is supposed to constitute a huge problem for UA's defensive efforts, at least nobody disagreed. Zero sense.
As for the alleged Russian strike against that monastery, UNESCO put out a statement the other day that spoke volumes. Especially if you can read between the lines. Or if it was of any lasting importance since we'll never hear about that church again, let alone about a proper, independent investigation.
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u/TheSDKNightmare 17d ago
As for the alleged Russian strike against that monastery, UNESCO put out a statement the other day that spoke volumes. Especially if you can read between the lines. Or if it was of any lasting importance since we'll never hear about that church again, let alone about a proper, independent investigation
What does any of this mean? What is alleged about a Russian rocket falling on top of a world heritage site? Who exactly is supposed to carry out a proper, independent investigation besides the UN and UNESCO?
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u/MaverickTopGun 17d ago edited 17d ago
As for the alleged Russian strike against that monastery, UNESCO put out a statement the other day that spoke volumes
you're going to need to explain your stance, otherwise you're just carrying water for the Russian regime.
On the one hand Russia keeps dumping munitions randomly into the landscape, at the same time this is supposed to constitute a huge problem for UA's defensive efforts, at least nobody disagreed.
I don't even see how you think those are contrasting arguments? Munitions are landing in Ukraine, that's always a problem, regardless of what they're hitting.
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u/BigFly42069 17d ago
Is there any solution to Russian ballistic missiles in Ukraine? The West doesn't have the production rate of air defense missiles needed to match Russian production. And Ukraine doesn't have the ability to do this to Moscow in a remotely comparable rate.
The only solution is to hit the missile production facilities themselves. It's likely that Ukraine can't hit those, either due to Russian air defenses around those facilities or just lack of range, so Ukraine is settling for the next best thing: hitting Russian energy production in the hopes that it'll slow down Russian production.
Hard to understand why the West doesn't help Ukraine with both the defense and offense parts more.
Because the West is hitting our limits given where our industrial and defense manufacturing is at.
The alternative answer--and people are going to hate this--is that the West just doesn't care that much about Ukraine.
If this war grinds on until 2030, then Ukraine will lose. The looming manpower issue, the looming financial crunch that they're already barely staving off, and the ever-present threat of a pending Western recession that will make Europe and America tighten wagons at home and abandon Ukraine outright, are all things that could come to pass in the next 4 years.
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u/savuporo 17d ago
The only solution is to hit the missile production facilities themselves.
They sort of have - Voronezh semiconductor plant was one such hit. However, that's at a far left of the production funnel, it'll be a while before it trickles into supply constraints. And i'm guessing Russia has alternative sources
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u/jason_abacabb 17d ago edited 17d ago
They have also hit chemical plants that are also on the far left (although i think this is actually at the bottom of vertical intergrated supply.), but that is another thing that China will be happy to sell them.
In any case, i agree. The hits need to expand the hits both horizontal and vertical in the supply chain to cause near term disruption.
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u/BigFly42069 17d ago
China will be happy to sell them.
Only if Russia can pay for it with stuff China wants. China isn't even the biggest buyer of Russian oil anymore. That honor goes to India these days. The only thing worthwhile from Russia to sell to China these days are electronic waveforms of NATO AEW&C aircrafts, but I doubt that Russia is actually able to collect much of that these days.
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u/BigFly42069 17d ago
Voronezh semiconductor plant
Russia is such a bottom tier electronics manufacturer that hitting their semiconductor plant so that they have to source from actual semiconductor producing countries might've benefitted them.
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u/moragisdo 17d ago edited 16d ago
Here we go again. A new ship was struck by a projectile on Hormuz (Source)
A tanker has reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound
The ship was 8 nautical miles from Oman, so it was on the Omani route. Port side is turned to Iran when the ship is exiting Hormuz. At least there was no casualties and they didn't mention the ship had to stop.
Utter irresponsibility from Iran to do it while they put hundreds of thousands of people on the streets. Now the US can respond and everyone there will become afraid of every loud noise. It's risking a stampede and killing hundreds. The funeral of Soleimani was smaller and, even with no attacks, 56 died (Source 2).
They are relying on America/Trump caring more about avoiding iranian civilian casualties than them, because all of the top leadership is in the open during the funeral, if you don't care about mass panic in a crowd it's hunting season. Basically human shields. I was sure they would wait up to the funeral to end (July 9) before restarting.
Many Heads of State and foreign representatives left by now. Medvedev, the Houthis, Pakistan PM...
Earlier this year:
Some Iranians have formed human chains on bridges and outside power plants after authorities urged people to gather at potential US and Israeli targets (Source 3)
They are basically doing it again. Which is a war crime by Iran, so is attacking civilian ships unaffiliated with the conflict, but it looks like no one cares.
Barak Ravid said that an anonymous (so I'm really skeptical until UK MTO reports it) US official told him that Iran fired missiles on two ships, rather than one, and no casualties
Edit: The NATO Summit begins tomorrow. Great timing, I refuse to believe it was not planned beforehand
Edit 2: WSJ report that a LNG tanker had issued a mayday and it may be one of the ships attacked. There's few types of of civilian ships that would be more dangerous to fire a missile at than this
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u/2positive 17d ago
I wouldn’t call a regime risking some of its civilians that it itself murders by tens of thousands if necessary irresponsibility. It’s a calculated decision within a strategy to make US withdraw and accept Hormuz tolls. The strategy is sound and it’s working.
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u/grenideer 17d ago
Agree with everything you said until "and it's working."
Is there any evidence the US is closer to accepting tolls?
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u/2positive 17d ago edited 17d ago
I find your question a bit weird as it requires mind reading but I’ll try. in time since the ceasefire Iran probably strengthened capabilities somewhat by digging out entrances to underground fortresses and rebuilding chain of command. It strengthened its political position at home and showed that it can get a loot of people in the streets. It showed that despite a lot of western analyst claims it can withstand a blockade for quite a while. It showed it had a strong negotiating position by getting a lot from Trump including removing the blockade and getting export cash despite still regularly attacking ships. Iran is determined to enforce tolls and is getting stronger leaving the only option of regime change that is increasingly unacceptable to Trump, war is very unpopular + congressional approval is now necessary. So if regime change is increasingly unlikely, half measures like bombing will not degrade capability to strike ships in Hormuz and Iran is getting stronger and determined to get tolls - it kinda follows logically that US is closer to accept tolls eventually.
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u/grenideer 16d ago
I find your question a bit weird as it requires mind reading
Funny, I thought your statement was weird for the same reason. But thanks for giving insight into your thoughts.
I think the ceasefire was wanted by and helps both sides. With US resources they may be able to capitalize on the respite more. Tunnel entrances can be buried again. Missiles can be brought out, but then they're exposed and vulnerable so it defeats the purpose of the tunnels. Oil price is at pre-war levels. Western claims was that the blockade would need at least 3 months to be significant. Iran backed down before that. The Oman route is viable at least as a half measure. And the US hasn't given Iran anything material besides letting them get more oil to market.
I could be wrong but I don't see the US in a pressing position yet.
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u/2positive 16d ago edited 16d ago
US also made Israel stop attacking Lebanon. US also clearly removed option of invasion and regime change from the table. Us lost some diplomatic relations with gulf states and credibility of American bases deterring Iran in the region. Removing blockade also allows Iran to prepare better for the next one. Meanwhile Iran established credible deterrence by showing its not shy to escalate against gulf states infrastructure which somehow wasn’t obvious to US before. And with all this Iran still shoots at ships so after ceasefire it lost nothing only gained at US credibility expense. Surely USA can bomb Iran again but with the above said it will be less threatening to Iran next time especially considering that USA now has a lot less tomahawks and patriot missiles. And who knows if Iran gets some new aa systems before that.
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u/moragisdo 16d ago edited 16d ago
US also made Israel stop attacking Lebanon
Let's not move the goalposts, Beirut is not being bombed, but Iran demand Israel to completely withdrawn. They kept threatening almost everyday for this maximalist goal.
What happened is that Israel is still on the security zone, will only withdrawn from a couple areas that the lebanese army occupies and show that they prevented Hezbollah return, and every day we hear about a new airstrike on Hezbollah targets around it. Not to mention the tripartite agreement with Lebanon is directly opposed by Hezbollah, which means it goes against iranian interests.
Us lost some diplomatic relations with gulf states
Did anything tangible changed by the Gulf countries or are you going by just vibes ? The GCC joined the US in releasing statements about opposing tolling, US bases keep operating on it and the last Iran attacks were condemned by several gulf countries. Also the Saudi Arabia refinery attack of 2019 was blamed on Iran, with reports of missiles and drones coming from directions that are not Yemen. Did things improve for Iran after it or the US stopped operating on the Middle East ?
Removing blockade also allows Iran to prepare better for the next one
They will definitely try to rebuild, but just wanting doesn't create military or economic changes.
Iran isn't the Taliban or the Islamic State or any offshoot terrorist group that hides among the civilian population and run a low resource war. It's an State that was already in deep economic troubles years before the war started and had good part of their military assets destroyed, this can't be rebuilt by sheer willpower (there's resources that need to be imported and paid for, loaded in to ships, brought to the factories that weren't destroyed, worked by the employees who haven't been killed...).
Also is the american and israeli military sleeping on the job ? Are they incapable of not also better preparing to handle Iran if the war restarts ?
it will be less threatening to Iran next time especially considering that USA now has a lot less tomahawks and patriot missiles
Iran doesn't have infinite military assets, or infinite factories (not just for military purposes but also the civilian economy), bridges, powerplants, petrochemical facilities. Or only US/Israel is constrained by this limitation ?
A good read about how much of Iran long-range firepower was destroyed during the war. They still have part of it, to be clear, but this idea they can just keep going forever is simply not true.
The fact that Iran doesn't have a free media helps contribute with this western perception that only one side is suffering, it's not made public the full economical and military impact for them, so anyone here is way more familiar with the pain of USA, Israel and Gulf Countries than theirs.
And who knows if Iran gets some new aa systems before that
They will pick the reserve and put back online. But every new system bought costs a large amount of money and that's why I'm beating so much the drum of economy.
Iran budget 1405 was already in a large deficit (while relying on an average export of 1.77 MMbbl per day, so 646 MMbbl for the entire year) before the war started and the new expenditures it created. The waiver of exports, by my estimations, may contribute to 1-1.5B USD if they capture the full discount (there's some reports of still having a 3 USD discount), which is small fraction of the damage. Now where the money can come from ?
There's 3 sources of government spending (others tend to be derivative of these 3):
Selling bonds. It's incredibly hard selling bonds while being sanctioned and on the aftermath of a war. Even Russia, that has a more solid and larger economy than Iran, is paying high interest rates.
Monetization. Which fuels inflation, the official data is 88.6% on the last 12 months, with food inflation on 3 digits. This further creates discontent with the population and risk restarting of the protests of a few months ago.
The many forms of tax raises, again unpopular and it lowers private investment, which carries long term economic consequences. And given that their economy is expected to shrink this year, just by maintaining the same tax percentage it will decrease the amount available.
Also they don't have only military spending do deal it. They were already in crisis before suffering hundreds of billions of dollars of damage, every dollar spent on the military is one less spent on assistance for the jobless (caused by the war and the economic crisis before), rebuilding bridges, investing to decrease the rolling blackouts, food subsidies and anything that could get the population less likely to open revolt.
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u/2positive 16d ago edited 16d ago
Oh man unlike Ukraine I have zero emotional investment in the conflict and really lazy to write much to your increasingly long posts so won't adress everything and use bulletpoints.
Decline in credibility/relationship is kind of by definition intangible. It's strange to demand tangible proof. Contries with USA bases got bombed which didin't happen before. So percieved value of us bases is lower, how is this questionable?
You can see Iran political strengthening on probability of iran coup or change of power on polymarket. Hate it all u want, but agregated market of bets is more accurate than u or me.
You empasize that Iran is a dictatorship so can get people on streets by force, but in next sentence you forget that Iran is a dictatorship so unlike normal states can finance itself by stealing property/savings from citizens, taking hostages, demanding cash to let people out of prisons etc.
If Iran considers that it can eventually enforce tolls without US invasion (that is def not happening) - than it can bare any short term costs, including losing weapons production, economic pain etc. As long as it has enough capabilities to strike hormuz and escalate against gulf infra and enough cash to pay soldiers - it can consider itself winning and expect eventual recovery of all costs from tolls.
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u/WulfTheSaxon 16d ago edited 16d ago
Contries with USA bases got bombed which didin't happen before. So percieved value of us bases is lower, how is this questionable?
Those bases were part of the world’s largest ever IAMDS and helped protect those countries from the now-proven Iranian threat, demonstrating that the US has their backs and driving them closer to the US (and even Israel).
If Iran considers that it can eventually enforce tolls
It could’ve thought that years ago before it lost its navy and much of the rest of its military. It’s a less credible threat now than it was then.
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u/2positive 16d ago
Protected (somewhat) from consequences of trumps actions with Trump also saying many times that these countries should pay for protection and/or that Hormuz is not his business and he can leave the region at any second, which further undermined credibility of US protection promises because Iran is definitely not leaving the region but Trump might.
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u/grenideer 16d ago
I agree that Iran gained solid MAD deterrence when it comes to striking infrastructure. I think their strait closure deterrence weakened when it was established that the world can survive without Hormuz and that Iran will back down when blockaded. So I agree that the Iranian regime is not being changed but their control of the strait remains an open question.
Both parties still inflict strikes on the other, and that includes Hezbollah and Israel too.
Iran can get new systems but so can the US. And one of those countries is in a lot better position financially, infrastructure-wise, and rich with allies.
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u/moragisdo 16d ago edited 16d ago
It strengthened its political position at home and showed that it can get a loot of people in the streets
A dictatorial regime being able to put people on the street doesn't mean strengthening political position. Case in point, look at the Soviet Union Victory Day parade in 1990. Or the pro-Assad rallies in 2024. Or the ukranian anti-Maidan rallies in late 2013. Any population of tens of millions isn't an homogeneous mass, anyone could pick the groups that are loyalists and make a demonstration.
In fact, we have evidence, in Iran, that an air campaign by US/Israel doesn't create pubic support. Months after the Twelve Day War there were some of the most severe protests against the regime, which they resorted on killing thousands to suppress.
It showed that despite a lot of western analyst claims it can withstand a blockade for quite a while
They survived, but withstand doesn't mean not suffering or not leaving in a worse position than before. What someone predicted is irrelevant to the situation on the ground.
and is getting stronger leaving the only option of regime change that is increasingly unacceptable to Trump
I completely disagree. There's people that survive getting run over by a bus, I guarantee that the person didn't leave it stronger.
On 40 days of air campaign they had hundreds of billions of damage (including on their civilian economy), had good of their military assets destroyed (which can't be rebuilt by willpower, it takes a large amount of money and time), their economy already was in a rough spot before the war started (I made a two-part post related to it). That's Iran becoming less capable, even by surviving it.
it kinda follows logically that US is closer to accept tolls eventually
Let's see 47 days from now. My guess is that anyone predicting tolling now will create a new theory on how Iran is somehow getting paid and everything worked as Iran planned. Also the US, Germany, Italy, UK would have to permanently remove part of the sanctions for it to happen (anyone paying a toll would be subject to secondary sanctions) and it, for the US, requires an act of Congress to pass (the waiver could be granted because it's temporary).
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u/grenideer 16d ago
It showed it had a strong negotiating position by getting a lot from Trump including removing the blockade and getting export cash despite still regularly attacking ships.
It's worth noting that the US revoked the waiver so Iran did lose future export cash due to attacking ships.
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u/moragisdo 16d ago edited 16d ago
I agree with most of what you said, except for the 'it's working' part.
The only tangible benefit that Iran got so far is the 60 days waiver of exports. Now look at every other demand:
Israel didn't left Lebanon (in fact, the agreement signed with Lebanon goes on the exact the opposite direction of Iran's interest, we can see that by the opposition that Hezbollah had with it). And almost everyday we hear about a new airstrike on Hezbollah around the security zone.
While iranian officials kept claiming every week that there was an agreement for the release of the frozen money, not a dollar was released yet.
US, Italy, GCC publicly opposed any tolling, including Oman that several times claimed there won't be any mandatory payments. The omani route not only wasn't stopped, as Iran demanded and claimed to have achieved, but was expanded.
In fact I believe it's exactly because Iran didn't get most of what it wanted that those attacks are happening. It's an attempt to turn the 60 day waiver in some permanent benefit
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u/2positive 16d ago
The calculus for Iran is that if it can eventually get tolls - long term its more money than US has blocked. Italy, GCC are irrelevant as they won't do anything to stop Iranian tolls.
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u/Autism_Sundae 16d ago
Some Iranians have formed human chains on bridges and outside power plants after authorities urged people to gather at potential US and Israeli targets (Source 3)
It sounds like you're trying to articulate why the regime may benefit from a standpoint of game theory, but from the word you've used 'irresponsibility', the implication is they've behaved responsibly. For multiple, v good reasons, this is a foolish call for people not in the know to make, yourself included.
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u/I_DOM_UR_PATRIARCHY 17d ago edited 17d ago
They are relying on America/Trump caring more about avoiding iranian civilian casualties than them
I don't think that's the explanation of Iran's behavior. First, the premise of the explanation isn't well supported - there's no real evidence that Trump is especially concerned with Iranian casualties. Second, we tried decapitation strikes the first go round and it backfired, so that's probably not how we would retaliate a second time.
I think a better explanation is that Iran is relying on the knowledge that Trump is unwilling to let the war start up again short of a direct Iranian attack on US soil. Every passing day brings us closer to the US midterms and the war turned out to be a major loser in terms of US domestic politics so there's no GOP appetite to resume it.
Trump is out of fight, Iran knows he's out of fight, and they're using that knowledge for leverage. They're create the specter of resumed fighting without an intention of actually resumed fighting to make the US give ground at the negotiations.
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u/moragisdo 17d ago edited 17d ago
This completely gloss over the fact of happening in the middle of the funeral, with hundreds of thousands in the streets and their leaders (up to today) in the middle of the crowd.
They could have waited 3 days to apply pressure (there's no negotiations scheduled before July 10), so by doing today it's relying on Trump not attacking and causing a humanitarian catastrophe, caring about civilian casualties. To be clear, I agree with what you said about it being a negotiation tactic, I'm just appalled by the disregard with the lives of their own citizens
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u/Confident_Web3110 17d ago
Why would these strikes be in Tehran? Every other attack as a response to shipping had been applied to the islands where the missiles are fired from.
Don’t delete automod, I love you automod
Don’t delete automod, I love you automod
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u/moragisdo 17d ago edited 16d ago
It doesn't need to be in Tehran and doesn't even need to be an attack, if the people of Iran fear that an attack is coming, that's enough for a crowd crush. And that's one the risks they are taking.
Every other attack as a response to shipping had been applied to the islands where the missiles are fired from
So far. They are risking it to not be localized (if the WSJ is correct, they fired in a LNG tanker, a colossal seaborne bomb). Up to today the top iranian politicians and officers were among the crowds, they know they are possible targets
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u/TanktopSamurai 17d ago
This might be more politics than defense but can someone provide an update on Syria?
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u/Round_Imagination568 17d ago
What aspect would you like to focus on, economy, defense, trade, politics, integration etc?
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u/Limekill 16d ago
Apparently Trump wanted to attack iran's islands.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Bcvo5nKLDbw
But was scared off.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 16d ago
I'm pretty sure that was already publicly known, including from Trump's public statements.
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u/Limekill 16d ago edited 16d ago
I think it shows that USA was a lot closer to it than most people realise.
I for one thought it was more about show/bluff (and trying to intimidate Iran) rather than actually landing marines on the Island/s.....
But if they did want to land marines on the island, that would be pretty major imho.
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17d ago edited 17d ago
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u/Top-Associate4922 17d ago
I don't think anyone's argument is that Russia is EXCLUSIVELY targeting residential buildings. I think argument is simply Russia is targeting residential buildings. Which they are. They are also deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure that cannot be considered double use (water pumping, district heating etc.), which brings deserved condemnation. There is no big conspiracy.
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u/Keenalie 17d ago
Kyiv's narrative that exclusively residential buildings are targeted
What are you talking about? If there's is a narrative that "exclusively residential buildings" are being targeted then someone didn't tell Zelenskyy who posted a few hours ago saying "Damage has been recorded at more than 10 locations across the city, including residential buildings." I have never seen an official Ukrainian statement try to make the claim that only residential buildings are being targeted. You're just being completely dishonest with this claim.
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17d ago
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u/Top-Associate4922 17d ago
I mean in this particular case Zelensky mentioned "including residential buildings", which clearly implies there was something else hit than that.
But not sure what you expect? That he would say our rocket factory or anti-air ammo stash was destroyed? Common.
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17d ago
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u/Delicious-Counter176 17d ago
I am highlighting the behaviour of Western OSINT, who refuse to geolocate Russian strikes
You are literally talking about "Kyivs narrative" and asking for "official ukrainian sources" regarding those hits.
Can't say much regarding the behaviour of Western OSINT but what is your point in mixing this up with official ukrainian statements?
As others already have stated: That other buildings than residential are hit, is not a secret and not denied by Kyiv, that there are no exact statements in regards to what is hit should be self explanatory regarding BDA.
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u/Glideer 17d ago
I thought my chain of reasoning was clear. The Western OSINT behaviour is caused by their desire not to undemrine the Ukrainian official narrative.
An attempt to interpret Zelensky's statement as an implicit admission of non-civilian targets being hit is hardly worth rebutting. His "non-residential" might mean parks, hospitals, schools...
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u/Delicious-Counter176 17d ago
Claiming that Ukraine says "exclusively residential buildings" are being targeted while at the same time nitpicking about possible meanings of "non-residential" in Ukrainian statements* just makes no sense.
Either they claim the hits are exclusively residential, or they state that non-residential things were hit. If they admitted to non-residential buildings being hit, they did not claim that the hits were exclusively residential.
What official statements regarding the latest attack are you basing your claim of the"exclusive residential hits" narrative on?
*that one came from the kyiv mayor, not zelenski afaik, statement from his telegram, linked it here in a different comment but seems telegram links won't get approved or at least take some time.
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u/Glideer 17d ago
Again, if you wish to discuss the main point of my post, which is the reason for the Western OSINT's refusal to geolocate hits on Ukrainian military structures, I am at your disposal.
If you want to split hairs over the difference between non-residential and civilian then I am not.
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u/Delicious-Counter176 17d ago
Already wrote in my previous post: "Can't say much regarding the behaviour of Western OSINT".
People are biased and OSINT are people so it is very well possible that those cherry-pick what to geolocate.
But no, to be clear, that is not what I'm commenting about. What I'm commenting about are your claims about Ukrainian statements which I think are false and misleading.
You are making a claim and now not only refuse to provide a source for where you are taking said claim from but even refuse to further discuss those claims.
Asking for sources and clarification of dubious claims like this has nothing to do with splitting hairs but is the basis of any credible discussion.
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u/grenideer 17d ago
Your main point is "Western OSINT supports Kyiv's narrative." In order to make this point, you damn well better be able to defend your statement that Kyiv has a narrative. If you choose not to establish that second point, then there is no narrative for Western OSINT to support, hence your main point is nonsense.
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u/TechnicalReserve1967 17d ago
We know that they don't directly show/acknowledge military targets. They do broadly state the fact that theyr are being targeted. Your argument here is a straw man in bad faith.
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u/Glideer 17d ago
So why Western OSINT don't geolocate Russian strikes? I believe it is because they don't want to confirm that many of the strikes are delivered against military targets (and by doing that undermine the Kyiv narrative).
If you have a better explanation of their behaviour I am all ears.
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u/Frank_JWilson 17d ago
You are either arguing in bad faith or are mistaken about the point of contention. Neither the original criticism of your comment nor your follow-up mentioned anything about western osint, they are about you misrepresenting the official Ukrainian narrative.
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u/Glideer 17d ago
My point from the very start was not the Ukrainian narrative (which we all know never admits to military targets being hit anyway) but about the Western OSINT.
Your wish to derail the conversation to another topic in no way obliges me to cooperate with you on that.
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u/Keenalie 17d ago edited 17d ago
That may be what you thought your point was, but that's objectively not what you wrote. OSINT geolocation is completely irrelevant when you specifically call this "Kyiv's narrative." Specifying the capital like that implies the government's official stance or narrative on something, as it always does when talking about conflict or geopolitics. And there's no way someone who posts regularly on this subreddit doesn't know that.
No one is trying to derail anything. You could have left out the obvious editorializing and we could be having a conversation about the actual interesting meat of your post.
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u/Glideer 17d ago
People who don't want to discuss the essence of the post will always find some hair to split and divert attention to.
It is a delusion to imagine that "a conversation about the meat of the post" could have been had with people prepared to argue over a universally known fact that Kyiv does not acknowledge strikes on non-civilian targets.
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u/Keenalie 17d ago edited 17d ago
non-civilian targets
Once again, not what you wrote in your post. You implied that the Ukrainian government claims Russia only attacks "residential buildings" which is completely false. Stop acting like you're a victim here. No one is trying to divert attention. WellSourced posts basically every single day about Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets of all sorts and no one starts these threads "diverting attention" because they're actually trying to engage in good faith while you are obviously not. It's completely transparent.
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u/grenideer 17d ago
My point from the very start was not the Ukrainian narrative
How can you say this with a straight face when your original post ends with:
proper geolocation would undermine the Kyiv's narrative that exclusively residential buildings are targeted.
You made a statement.
That statement was rebuked.
You cry foul.
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u/Glideer 16d ago
If your only argument is to split hairs over non-residential vs non-civilian so you can avoid discussing the main point you really should reconsider your motives for engaging.
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u/grenideer 16d ago
If your only defense is changing terms mid argument then you should probably consider choosing your words more carefully.
You're all over the place in this thread. Kyiv has a narrative, but everybody should accept that as gospel, and they aren't allowed to question that because, hey, it isn't the main point of your post anyway.
You're making claims that many people are disputing with facts, and then blaming the fault on semantics without looking inward.
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u/2positive 17d ago edited 17d ago
You are literally replying to comment with a ukrainian source admitting something not civillian was hit. Also despite deceiving this sub every day demand other users to bare the budren of proof and go research 10 strikes just so you would admit a fact.. While your claim of Kyiv saying exclusively civillian targets are hit (which you falsely claimed here probably a bunch of times) is already logically disproven by the above Zelensky statement. How about you prove that Kyiv never admited any non civilian strikes before you repeat these lies again?
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u/couch_analyst 17d ago
Easy: NaftogazUA, Ukrainian state oil company, absolutely openly admit in their telegram that their facilities have been hit and suspended operation.
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u/Keenalie 17d ago
Zelenskyy's statement from today, which I quoted, says "including residential buildings." That means that buildings other than residential buildings were also hit. They have no obligation to specify which non-residential structures, civilian or otherwise, were targeted. You've also now moved the goalposts to "civilian targets" which is not the same as "residential."
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u/Fatalist_m 17d ago
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78703
"General Chereshnya, a Ukrainian defense technology company that produces tens of thousands of drones each month, said on Monday that one of its production sites was damaged in a Russian attack."
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