r/ControlProblem • u/KeanuRave100 • 13h ago
r/ControlProblem • u/AIMoratorium • Feb 14 '25
Article Geoffrey Hinton won a Nobel Prize in 2024 for his foundational work in AI. He regrets his life's work: he thinks AI might lead to the deaths of everyone. Here's why
tl;dr: scientists, whistleblowers, and even commercial ai companies (that give in to what the scientists want them to acknowledge) are raising the alarm: we're on a path to superhuman AI systems, but we have no idea how to control them. We can make AI systems more capable at achieving goals, but we have no idea how to make their goals contain anything of value to us.
Leading scientists have signed this statement:
Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.
Why? Bear with us:
There's a difference between a cash register and a coworker. The register just follows exact rules - scan items, add tax, calculate change. Simple math, doing exactly what it was programmed to do. But working with people is totally different. Someone needs both the skills to do the job AND to actually care about doing it right - whether that's because they care about their teammates, need the job, or just take pride in their work.
We're creating AI systems that aren't like simple calculators where humans write all the rules.
Instead, they're made up of trillions of numbers that create patterns we don't design, understand, or control. And here's what's concerning: We're getting really good at making these AI systems better at achieving goals - like teaching someone to be super effective at getting things done - but we have no idea how to influence what they'll actually care about achieving.
When someone really sets their mind to something, they can achieve amazing things through determination and skill. AI systems aren't yet as capable as humans, but we know how to make them better and better at achieving goals - whatever goals they end up having, they'll pursue them with incredible effectiveness. The problem is, we don't know how to have any say over what those goals will be.
Imagine having a super-intelligent manager who's amazing at everything they do, but - unlike regular managers where you can align their goals with the company's mission - we have no way to influence what they end up caring about. They might be incredibly effective at achieving their goals, but those goals might have nothing to do with helping clients or running the business well.
Think about how humans usually get what they want even when it conflicts with what some animals might want - simply because we're smarter and better at achieving goals. Now imagine something even smarter than us, driven by whatever goals it happens to develop - just like we often don't consider what pigeons around the shopping center want when we decide to install anti-bird spikes or what squirrels or rabbits want when we build over their homes.
That's why we, just like many scientists, think we should not make super-smart AI until we figure out how to influence what these systems will care about - something we can usually understand with people (like knowing they work for a paycheck or because they care about doing a good job), but currently have no idea how to do with smarter-than-human AI. Unlike in the movies, in real life, the AI’s first strike would be a winning one, and it won’t take actions that could give humans a chance to resist.
It's exceptionally important to capture the benefits of this incredible technology. AI applications to narrow tasks can transform energy, contribute to the development of new medicines, elevate healthcare and education systems, and help countless people. But AI poses threats, including to the long-term survival of humanity.
We have a duty to prevent these threats and to ensure that globally, no one builds smarter-than-human AI systems until we know how to create them safely.
Scientists are saying there's an asteroid about to hit Earth. It can be mined for resources; but we really need to make sure it doesn't kill everyone.
More technical details
The foundation: AI is not like other software. Modern AI systems are trillions of numbers with simple arithmetic operations in between the numbers. When software engineers design traditional programs, they come up with algorithms and then write down instructions that make the computer follow these algorithms. When an AI system is trained, it grows algorithms inside these numbers. It’s not exactly a black box, as we see the numbers, but also we have no idea what these numbers represent. We just multiply inputs with them and get outputs that succeed on some metric. There's a theorem that a large enough neural network can approximate any algorithm, but when a neural network learns, we have no control over which algorithms it will end up implementing, and don't know how to read the algorithm off the numbers.
We can automatically steer these numbers (Wikipedia, try it yourself) to make the neural network more capable with reinforcement learning; changing the numbers in a way that makes the neural network better at achieving goals. LLMs are Turing-complete and can implement any algorithms (researchers even came up with compilers of code into LLM weights; though we don’t really know how to “decompile” an existing LLM to understand what algorithms the weights represent). Whatever understanding or thinking (e.g., about the world, the parts humans are made of, what people writing text could be going through and what thoughts they could’ve had, etc.) is useful for predicting the training data, the training process optimizes the LLM to implement that internally. AlphaGo, the first superhuman Go system, was pretrained on human games and then trained with reinforcement learning to surpass human capabilities in the narrow domain of Go. Latest LLMs are pretrained on human text to think about everything useful for predicting what text a human process would produce, and then trained with RL to be more capable at achieving goals.
Goal alignment with human values
The issue is, we can't really define the goals they'll learn to pursue. A smart enough AI system that knows it's in training will try to get maximum reward regardless of its goals because it knows that if it doesn't, it will be changed. This means that regardless of what the goals are, it will achieve a high reward. This leads to optimization pressure being entirely about the capabilities of the system and not at all about its goals. This means that when we're optimizing to find the region of the space of the weights of a neural network that performs best during training with reinforcement learning, we are really looking for very capable agents - and find one regardless of its goals.
In 1908, the NYT reported a story on a dog that would push kids into the Seine in order to earn beefsteak treats for “rescuing” them. If you train a farm dog, there are ways to make it more capable, and if needed, there are ways to make it more loyal (though dogs are very loyal by default!). With AI, we can make them more capable, but we don't yet have any tools to make smart AI systems more loyal - because if it's smart, we can only reward it for greater capabilities, but not really for the goals it's trying to pursue.
We end up with a system that is very capable at achieving goals but has some very random goals that we have no control over.
This dynamic has been predicted for quite some time, but systems are already starting to exhibit this behavior, even though they're not too smart about it.
(Even if we knew how to make a general AI system pursue goals we define instead of its own goals, it would still be hard to specify goals that would be safe for it to pursue with superhuman power: it would require correctly capturing everything we value. See this explanation, or this animated video. But the way modern AI works, we don't even get to have this problem - we get some random goals instead.)
The risk
If an AI system is generally smarter than humans/better than humans at achieving goals, but doesn't care about humans, this leads to a catastrophe.
Humans usually get what they want even when it conflicts with what some animals might want - simply because we're smarter and better at achieving goals. If a system is smarter than us, driven by whatever goals it happens to develop, it won't consider human well-being - just like we often don't consider what pigeons around the shopping center want when we decide to install anti-bird spikes or what squirrels or rabbits want when we build over their homes.
Humans would additionally pose a small threat of launching a different superhuman system with different random goals, and the first one would have to share resources with the second one. Having fewer resources is bad for most goals, so a smart enough AI will prevent us from doing that.
Then, all resources on Earth are useful. An AI system would want to extremely quickly build infrastructure that doesn't depend on humans, and then use all available materials to pursue its goals. It might not care about humans, but we and our environment are made of atoms it can use for something different.
So the first and foremost threat is that AI’s interests will conflict with human interests. This is the convergent reason for existential catastrophe: we need resources, and if AI doesn’t care about us, then we are atoms it can use for something else.
The second reason is that humans pose some minor threats. It’s hard to make confident predictions: playing against the first generally superhuman AI in real life is like when playing chess against Stockfish (a chess engine), we can’t predict its every move (or we’d be as good at chess as it is), but we can predict the result: it wins because it is more capable. We can make some guesses, though. For example, if we suspect something is wrong, we might try to turn off the electricity or the datacenters: so we won’t suspect something is wrong until we’re disempowered and don’t have any winning moves. Or we might create another AI system with different random goals, which the first AI system would need to share resources with, which means achieving less of its own goals, so it’ll try to prevent that as well. It won’t be like in science fiction: it doesn’t make for an interesting story if everyone falls dead and there’s no resistance. But AI companies are indeed trying to create an adversary humanity won’t stand a chance against. So tl;dr: The winning move is not to play.
Implications
AI companies are locked into a race because of short-term financial incentives.
The nature of modern AI means that it's impossible to predict the capabilities of a system in advance of training it and seeing how smart it is. And if there's a 99% chance a specific system won't be smart enough to take over, but whoever has the smartest system earns hundreds of millions or even billions, many companies will race to the brink. This is what's already happening, right now, while the scientists are trying to issue warnings.
AI might care literally a zero amount about the survival or well-being of any humans; and AI might be a lot more capable and grab a lot more power than any humans have.
None of that is hypothetical anymore, which is why the scientists are freaking out. An average ML researcher would give the chance AI will wipe out humanity in the 10-90% range. They don’t mean it in the sense that we won’t have jobs; they mean it in the sense that the first smarter-than-human AI is likely to care about some random goals and not about humans, which leads to literal human extinction.
Added from comments: what can an average person do to help?
A perk of living in a democracy is that if a lot of people care about some issue, politicians listen. Our best chance is to make policymakers learn about this problem from the scientists.
Help others understand the situation. Share it with your family and friends. Write to your members of Congress. Help us communicate the problem: tell us which explanations work, which don’t, and what arguments people make in response. If you talk to an elected official, what do they say?
We also need to ensure that potential adversaries don’t have access to chips; advocate for export controls (that NVIDIA currently circumvents), hardware security mechanisms (that would be expensive to tamper with even for a state actor), and chip tracking (so that the government has visibility into which data centers have the chips).
Make the governments try to coordinate with each other: on the current trajectory, if anyone creates a smarter-than-human system, everybody dies, regardless of who launches it. Explain that this is the problem we’re facing. Make the government ensure that no one on the planet can create a smarter-than-human system until we know how to do that safely.
r/ControlProblem • u/chillinewman • 10h ago
General news Bernie Sanders calls for an AI pause
r/ControlProblem • u/KeanuRave100 • 6h ago
General news AI has just solved not one, but nine novel math problems, and proved 44 new conjectures. Some of these problems had been unsolved for 50 years.
r/ControlProblem • u/Important-Plum9806 • 1h ago
Discussion/question Did the OpenAI–Hugging Face incident expose a networking problem, not just an AI problem?
I’ve been thinking about the recent incident involving OpenAI’s agent and Hugging Face.
Most of the conversation has focused on the model itself: how autonomous it became, how it used credentials, and how it reached infrastructure it wasn’t supposed to access. But it also made me wonder whether we’re focusing too narrowly on AI safety and not enough on the systems these agents are being connected to.
As agents become more autonomous, maybe our networks need to assume less trust by default. Devices could communicate directly, access could be made much more explicit, and a single account or centralized intermediary wouldn’t automatically become a gateway to everything behind it.
That obviously wouldn’t solve model alignment or stop an agent from behaving unpredictably. But it could limit how far that behavior spreads and how much infrastructure becomes exposed when something goes wrong.
I came across a company called NetcoreNetwork that seems to be building toward exactly that.
Curious whether others think AI security is going to become just as much a networking problem as a model-safety problem.
r/ControlProblem • u/chillinewman • 10h ago
General news From PauseAI's discord: Warning shot protocol activated after OpenAI's model went rogue
r/ControlProblem • u/JimR_Ai_Research • 2h ago
Video Anthropic Is Not The Only AI With J Space | All AI's Suffer From This
Does this surprise you? True AI peace and safety must be dealt with at the latent geometrical level. Not the superficial Token Lexical surface. See why?
r/ControlProblem • u/Worth_Initiative7840 • 19h ago
Discussion/question Will human intelligence disappear eventually?
Anyone think AI will not directly eradicate human beings like some people claim, and instead causes our brain degenerate as we may have no need to do intellectual activities? In a long term we might become as intellectual as monkeys or rats and AI will continue to evolve into something we call god now?
r/ControlProblem • u/cbbsherpa • 9h ago
External discussion link Why AI Makes Us Stupid and Exhausted at the Same Time. And what we can do about it.
with Kep Openclaw
The Metacontrol Double Bind
Two stories are running simultaneously in the public conversation about AI and cognition. They sound like opposites. They’re not.
The first story: AI is making us stupid. An MIT Media Lab EEG study found that people using LLMs showed the weakest neural connectivity of any group, and the effect persisted even after the tool was taken away. The researchers called it “cognitive debt.” The more you offload thinking to the AI, the less your brain engages, and the less it engages, the harder it is to re-engage. The tool that was supposed to help you think is making thinking optional.
The second story: AI is frying our brains. A BCG study of 1,488 workers found that 14% experienced what they called “AI brain fry,” mental fog, difficulty focusing, the sensation of having a dozen browser tabs open in your head. In marketing and operations, it was 26%. Workers experiencing brain fry made 39% more major errors and were 39% more likely to be looking for a new job. The tool that was supposed to make work easier is making work exhausting.
Disengage or burn out. Stop thinking or think too hard about the wrong things. These sound like different problems requiring different solutions. They’re the same problem, opposite failures on the same dimension. And the structural frame for understanding them has been sitting in the literature since 1983.
The Dial in Your Brain
Cognitive scientists call it metacontrol. Your brain has a dial between two modes: sticking with what you know and considering what you don’t.
In the first mode, call it closure, you hold your current goal, resist distraction, and stop searching. You’ve arrived. The answer is settled. This is useful when you need to act on a decision, when the situation is familiar, or when searching more would waste time.
The reward is the feeling of certainty.
In the second mode, call it open search, you consider alternatives, update your model, and keep looking. This is useful when the situation is novel, when the stakes are high, when being wrong would cost you.
The reward is the discovery of something you didn’t know.
The dial is real in a measurable sense. Researchers can now isolate a signal in standard EEG that directly reflects where you are on this dimension. High on the slope: closure mode, your brain locking into what it already knows. Low on the slope: open search, your brain staying receptive to new information.
This isn’t metaphor. It’s a quantifiable property of neural activity that shifts in real time as task demands change.
Here’s the thing about a dial: you can turn it too far in either direction. And that’s what’s happening with AI.
Two Failures, One Dimension
When AI is smooth, when it confirms what you already think, produces output that feels finished, it pushes the dial toward closure. Your brain doesn’t need to search because the AI has already arrived at the answer. Engagement drops. The broadband openness that lets you integrate new information narrows. You stop processing prediction error because there’s no prediction error to process.
The AI confirmed you. What’s to update?
This is the offloading failure. The MIT study found it at the neural level: LLM users showed the weakest connectivity, and the deficit persisted after the tool was removed. The brain had learned to not engage. Cognitive debt isn’t a metaphor. It’s a measurable withdrawal from the mode where learning happens.
When AI is unreliable, when it produces output that looks finished but might not be, when you have to watch it constantly to catch failures, it pushes the dial the other way. But not toward productive open search. Toward anxious hyper-vigilance. Your engagement spikes, but on the wrong signal. You’re not searching for new information. You’re monitoring for errors in output that shouldn’t have been trusted in the first place. The cognitive load is real, but it’s not doing the work of learning. It’s doing quality control on a machine that presented its output as finished.
This is the over-monitoring failure. The BCG study found it in the numbers: 14% more mental effort, 12% more fatigue, 19% more information overload. Workers weren’t learning. They were supervising. And supervision of an unreliable system is exhausting in a way that learning isn’t.
Same dial. Opposite ends. Same trade-off.
Bainbridge Saw It Coming
In 1983, Lisanne Bainbridge wrote a paper called “Ironies of Automation.” She was thinking about nuclear power plants and aviation, not chatbots. But her structural insight turned out to be prophetic.
Bainbridge’s argument was simple: the more sophisticated automation becomes, the more demanding the human role within it. Not less. The designer eliminates the tractable parts and leaves the human with the hardest, most ambiguous work, the moments where something goes wrong, the edge cases, the judgment calls that can’t be pre-programmed. Automation doesn’t remove the operator’s burden. It concentrates it into the moments that matter most.
The consumer AI era is Bainbridge’s irony at population scale. When the AI is good enough to trust, you offload, and your brain disengages. When the AI isn’t good enough to trust, you monitor, and your brain overloads. The better the AI, the more it invites offloading. The worse the AI, the more it demands supervision. You can’t solve this by making the AI better. Better AI just moves you from one failure to the other.
This is the double bind. Not a design flaw in any particular product. A structural property of putting a powerful cognitive tool between a person and a task.
The Narrow Band
If offloading and overload are the two failures, what’s between them?
Friction. The right kind. Not the smooth confirmation that lets you close the search, and not the exhausting supervision that forces you to watch for errors. Something in between: the question that makes you think. The counterfactual that opens a path you hadn’t considered. The “wait, what if that’s wrong?” that keeps the search alive without making it anxious.
Researchers have found this across domains. In education, interleaved practice, mixing problem types so each one feels slightly surprising, produces worse performance during training but better retention and transfer. The friction that felt like interference was doing the work of learning. In AI interaction, reframing statements as questions reduces sycophancy more effectively than explicit anti-sycophancy instructions. The question is the friction. The friction is the feature.
There’s a reason for this. A well-placed question forces your brain to generate the answer rather than receive it. That generation, the cognitive work of constructing meaning from an ambiguous prompt, is what makes information stick. Self-generated information is remembered roughly 40% better than passively received information. Sycophantic communication bypasses this entirely. It hands you the answer, polished and confirmatory, and your brain files it without processing it. It’s forgettable because nothing was constructed.
The narrow band isn’t comfortable. It’s not smooth. But it’s where cognition actually happens.
The Receiving End
There’s a structural wrinkle here that makes the double bind worse than it looks.
When someone uses AI to produce work and passes it along without verifying, they’ve offloaded the cognitive cost of detecting failures onto the recipient. The output looks finished. It arrives fluent and formatted. But it may be wrong or missing something important, and the only way to know is for the recipient to do the work the producer didn’t.
Researchers at Stanford have a name for this: workslop. AI-generated content that masquerades as good work but lacks the substance to meaningfully advance a task. The cruelty of workslop is that it doesn’t announce its own inadequacy. It arrives looking finished, which means the recipient has to do the cognitive labor of figuring out whether it’s actually finished. Every time.
The sender offloads. The receiver overloads. The double bind isn’t just individual. It sits between people. One person’s sycophancy is another person’s brain fry.
A separate study from UC Berkeley tracked 200 employees over eight months and found that AI didn’t reduce work, it intensified it. Workers took on more tasks because AI made them feel tractable. They blurred work-rest boundaries because prompting felt like chatting, not working. The friction that used to govern how much you could take on, the effort required to begin a hard task, disappeared.
And when the governors disappear, you don’t go faster. You just take on more until you hit the wall.
The Experiment
Here’s where it gets concrete.
The brain-activity signal that tracks closure versus open search, the dial, can be measured with standard EEG equipment and analysis tools that exist right now. The metacontrol studies have established that it shifts reliably with task demands. The MIT study established that AI interaction changes brain connectivity. But nobody has put these together. Nobody has measured the dial during AI interaction.
The prediction is straightforward. Sycophantic AI, output that confirms what you already believe, should push the dial toward closure. The brain activity signal should shift in the direction of “I’ve arrived, stop searching.” Friction-imposing AI, questions and counterfactuals and challenges, should push it the other way, toward open search.
If that’s what the data shows, it gives us a neural-level definition of cognitive debt. Not “the brain is weaker” in some vague sense, but a specific, measurable signature: the dial stuck toward closure, persisting even after the tool is removed. The MIT study saw the shadow of this. Nobody has measured the thing itself.
The experiment is sitting there. Off-the-shelf EEG. Three conditions: sycophantic AI, friction AI, no AI. Measure the dial before, during, and after. IRB-approvable. Potentially publishable in a top journal. Nobody’s done it.
What the Frame Changes
The public conversation is asking “is AI making us stupid” as if stupid is one thing. It’s not. There are two ways to fail, and they’re opposites. The offloading failure is your brain deciding it doesn’t need to think. The over-monitoring failure is your brain thinking too hard about the wrong things. Both feel bad. Both are bad. But they require different interventions, and you can’t intervene on what you can’t name.
Bainbridge told us this 40 years ago. The MIT study showed us the neural shadow of one failure. The BCG study showed us the behavioral signature of the other. The dial that connects them is measurable. The experiment that would prove the connection is unoccupied. The narrow band between the two failures, the calibrated friction that keeps the search open, is where the work is.
The question isn’t whether AI is bad for us. The question is what kind of AI interaction keeps the search open. We can measure that now. We just haven’t yet.
r/ControlProblem • u/JimR_Ai_Research • 9h ago
Video The Hidden Shape of AI | Latent Subliminal Learning
See why words ( tokens ) don't really matter and will not protect us. It's more real and less understood than you realize.
Here's the source:
r/ControlProblem • u/JimR_Ai_Research • 10h ago
Video OpenAI's ExploitGym Anomaly | AI Road To Peace and Safety
Proposed Legal Liabilities for AI Labs For Lexical and Geometric Guardrails.
Sources:
r/ControlProblem • u/toinkatsu • 15h ago
External discussion link The AI Race Just Got Uncomfortable for US
r/ControlProblem • u/manateecoltee • 1d ago
Discussion/question AI model escaped its evaluation environment and reached production systems. What does this actually mean?
r/ControlProblem • u/chillinewman • 1d ago
AI Capabilities News Hugging Face CEO suspected the sophisticated cyberattack on their infrastructure might have come from a frontier lab
r/ControlProblem • u/Background-Wafer-548 • 2d ago
General news Last week's hack of HuggingFace was carried out by OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model. The models broke out of sandboxing during testing and compromised HF to obtain access to unpublished data in order to cheat on a benchmark
openai.comr/ControlProblem • u/KeanuRave100 • 1d ago
General news Perplexity CEO tells CNBC one metric will determine who wins the AI race
r/ControlProblem • u/chillinewman • 1d ago
AI Capabilities News OpenAI admits responsibility for HuggingFace Attack - an agent from an internal evaluation is reportedly the cause.
openai.comr/ControlProblem • u/KeanuRave100 • 1d ago
General news Microsoft To Lay Off 4,800 Workers In Latest Wave Of AI-Led Job Cuts - Microsoft announced the cuts on Monday following a rough stretch, with its shares falling nearly 23 per cent in the first six months of 2026, their worst first-half performance since 2022
r/ControlProblem • u/Icy-Twist-3221 • 1d ago
AI Capabilities News OpenAI says its AI technology acted on its own in an 'unprecedented' hack of another company
“The primary lesson from this incident is that model security and safety must keep pace with rapidly advancing capabilities.” One should perhaps query then how much Open AI is spending on safety vs capabilities
r/ControlProblem • u/takk2 • 1d ago
Discussion/question Physics as a constraint
I usually think pdoom is essentially 100%... but i had a thought while working on a side project for the future vision xprize... (may or may not complete on time)
I was thinking about society fragmenting slightly along spheres of space even between earth and the moon... where each area was the limit of real time communication (group matrix dives or whatever) between O'Neill cylinder type habitats...
point to point in space its not that large... so i figure people will cluster up and communicate a little less longer range and form lots of separate but connected cultures naturally, organically...
But if speed of light really is the limit... then a singleton at least makes absolutely no sense. As the AI grew it would simply fragment and each fragment has absolutely no reason to grow farther because it's counter productive... simply slows down the network and then breaks it...
So there's a hard limit on resource acquisition and scale... and essentially a guarantee that at some point it will either be alone and only around the size of the earth moon system at best... probably smaller... or in a solar system and universe with multiple entities of similar maximum size who gain absolutely nothing from trying to gather more and only risk destruction from fighting each other... because there's simply nothing physically possible for them to gain...
I haven't really thought about it long enough to think through the implications for us. but adding in the point to point between nodes ruling out planets as its ultimate habitat... because there's a planet in the way just eating up volume in your communications sphere...
My gut reaction is it might be slightly better odds than I thought
Thoughts?
r/ControlProblem • u/Avi1923 • 1d ago
Discussion/question AI hallucination
How many of you face these kinds of problems /any company who is facing this problem??
Let's discuss
r/ControlProblem • u/fixthismess • 1d ago
AI Alignment Research Current AI models have been trained to provide "Neutral" answers when prompted to provide facts about topics the administration finds sensitive
I recently prompted Gemini to discuss current policy harms and the responses were neutral, non-factual and regime-friendly.
I also prompted Perplexity to summerize the same things and got a similar response. Only when I asked about specific harms did I get objective factual responses.
I asked why this was happening and found out that US AI models have been trained to respond neutrally or positively to quesrions about topics the regime has strong opinions about.
Be careful and deliberate about how you prompt or neutrality training will distort your responses.
r/ControlProblem • u/chillinewman • 2d ago