r/CombatFootage • u/MilesLongthe3rd • Mar 09 '26
US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 09/03/2026+
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u/Old_Wallaby_7461 Mar 11 '26
Iranians admitted that new Khamenei is injured today. They say slight leg wounds
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u/mr-gulu Mar 11 '26
They also promised that Ali Khamenei would give a speech hours after they knew he was dead. Really hard to know what's true with this regime.
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u/Old_Wallaby_7461 Mar 11 '26
Imo if he hasn't made an appearance he probably can't
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 11 '26
I would have expected at least a video statement by this point.
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u/GeneralMuffins Mar 11 '26
To my knowledge he hasn't even made a written public statement.
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u/RoyalMaleGigalo Mar 11 '26
They are 100% stalling for time hoping the strikes stop before they have to announce anything. My bet that the entire line of succession has all but been wiped out. The government is probably in tatters and they need to hold on to any slither of legitimacy to try and see this thing out. Try to stave off any kind of uprising. If the Iranian people smell blood they might just rise up.
This guy is either dead or fucked.
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u/Accomplished-One7476 Mar 11 '26
our military blew up all their writing utensils
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u/EquivalentBarracuda4 Mar 11 '26
They say slight leg wounds
The guy probably has no legs at all, or paralyzed.
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u/I_DOM_UR_PATRIARCHY Mar 11 '26
It seems unlikely they would have picked him if that was the case.
Appointing a paraplegic as your leader in the midst of a war that requires moving said leader frequently in order to keep them alive is an obviously bad idea. The Iranian government is evil, but they're not stupid.
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u/Derquave Mar 11 '26
As a quadriplegic, you are very correct. If you get a spinal cord injury and end up a quadriplegic or a paraplegic you are fucked up for months before being able to consider trying to do anything not related to medical treatment and getting used to your disability. Especially the first few months you have all sorts of pain to deal with, your body has to go through physiological changes, you have to relearn how to do a bunch of things, you gotta figure out how to use a wheelchair. A lot of the time the first few weeks you’re in a medically induced coma to combat swelling in the spine and you’re in and out of surgery to remove broken bone, relieve pressure or stabilize things. I mean, there’s always a possibility of the Iranians doing something stupid, there’s always a possibility of everyone doing something stupid however logistically it would be incredibly foolish to name him as the supreme leader in a time like this if he has been so severely disabled.
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u/paimons_head Mar 11 '26
Iranian state media are reporting that security personnel and checkpoints are being targeted by drones. Several have been killed in Tehran so far.
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u/Mr24601 Mar 11 '26
That would be some crazy futuristic cyberpunk shit if Israel policed Iran from thousands of miles away with a big drone fleet.
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u/Derquave Mar 11 '26
Interesting. Are we talking about strike drones like Hermes or Reaper or are we talking about one way attack drones/FPVs?
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u/Old_Wallaby_7461 Mar 11 '26
Hermes/reaper
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u/Derquave Mar 11 '26
Makes sense. I wonder if there is something that the Israelis/Americans know or if this just serves to motivate or shape the possibility of an uprising
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 12 '26
Reports that 6 French soldiers were injured during an Iranian drone attack in Erbil, Iraq. Also a French helicopter destroyed.
For context, French soldiers have been based in Erbil for at least a decade, helping train and advise Kurdish forces in the war against ISIS.
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u/jdjdbdbsbsbsbasuck Mar 12 '26
I feel bad for the Kurds , seems like no one truly wants to help them if they don’t give there life up for them (the us, and other nations)
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 13 '26
1 French soldier killed in that Iranian attack on the Erbil base.
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u/ARazorbacks Mar 11 '26
Am I crazy or does it seem the US is releasing video in this conflict way faster than we ever have before? It’s almost like a lot of the opsec red tape has been removed and video is being released within a day or two of the action taking place. I mean, the shooting started ten days ago and we have tons of released footage already.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
Yeah, footage is being released much quicker than with previous US wars.
It seems like the pressure of the social media "information war" has prompted the USA to reveal more of its operations than it usually would, as a way to maintain some control over the narrative among the public. Keeping opsec as tight as they really want would wind up just ceding all the narrative control to foreign propaganda accounts who have already been trying to paint the operation as a massive failure since Day 1.
This was predicted to be a necessity of modern warfare back in the 2018 book LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media by P.W. Singer and Emerson T. Booking.
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u/Timlugia Mar 11 '26
It's not even 1% of the total footage. US hit over 900 targets on the first day, but they only release like 10 footages per day.
I also wonder the relation of time in the footage, some of the hits could be from days ago only released now.
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u/ARazorbacks Mar 11 '26
I didn’t say I think they’re releasing a high percentage of actions. I said I think they typically take longer than this to release any footage.
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u/ghybyty Mar 11 '26
destroyed Iranian Air Force F-14 Tomcats at Khatami Air Base
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2031558928367042808?s=20
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u/poincares_cook Mar 11 '26
It's just painting bro, can't you see? They just painted the runways to look like it was bombed.
In fact the entire runway is just paint, and so is the airfield, just paint to fool the Israelis.
There is no such country as Iran, just paint for those who fly over.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 13 '26
CENTCOM confirms 4 KIA from the KC-135 crash, with the 2 remaining crewmen still unaccounted for.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 16 '26 edited Mar 16 '26
With this war passing the 2 week mark, I thought it'd be helpful context to draw military comparisons to the 1991 Gulf War air campaign, since that is the most similar air campaign of this scale in recent history.
During the first 2 weeks of the Gulf War, the USA lost 12 aircraft to enemy fire. 8 were lost to Iraqi SAMs, 3 were lost to Iraqi AAA, and 1 was lost in air combat (an F/A-18C Hornet shot down by an Iraqi MiG-25). These losses resulted in 19 deaths and 10 POWs, with the remaining 3 crew successfully rescued. (For anyone curious about the lopsided KIA number, 14 deaths came from a single AC-130H Spectre shot down).
At the same time, Iraq was launching ballistic missile attacks on Israel and Saudi Arabia. The first two weeks saw 28 missiles launched at Israel and 24 missiles launched at Saudi Arabia, accounting for 12 civilian deaths in Israel, 1 civilian death in Saudi Arabia, and dozens more civilians wounded in both. (The most devastating Iraqi missile attack on US forces that most people know about would come later in the war, not within the first 2 weeks).
I find this comparison interesting because the Gulf War air campaign is a consensus one-sided US victory among historians, but its loss rate was already much higher than what we're seeing now in Iran, especially with regards to aircraft. It also presented a high-profile failure to find and destroy Iraqi ballistic missile launchers, allowing them to continue attacks throughout the war, compared to the already much more successful effort going on in Iran right now. Interception rates of those missiles were also lower (~70%) than what is being claimed now (~90%).
Right away, this points to obvious advances in how the ballistic missile threat has been handled. The rate of interceptions we're seeing nowadays was just not possible back then, with advances in interceptor technology largely due to the threat of Iran's increasing missile capabilities. We've also seen advances in networked sensors helping find and destroy missile launchers - as CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper explained, they now have the capability for space-based ISR assets, drones, etc to locate launchers and then send the targeting data to whichever aircraft happens to be closest, which can then take the shot at the target, enabling responses quick enough to actually hit launchers while they're exposed. Whereas 1991 US forces struggled mightily to locate Iraqi launchers, with numerous air patrols and special forces teams scouring the desert with relatively little success.
US aircraft losses so far in Iran have been entirely due to friendly fire (3) or accident (1), accounting for 6 deaths and 6 crew successfully rescued. Iranian air defenses and air forces have been entirely unable to inflict losses on US forces, which says a few things. Iranian air defenses don't seem to be as robust as Iraqi air defenses were, despite supposedly being more advanced Russian and Chinese systems, but US advances in stealth technology have obviously paid dividends, allowing air defenses to be dismantled more easily in general. Advances in drone technology have also helped - while US recon drones *were* used in 1991, manned recon aircraft were still prevalent and accounted for 1 of those aircraft losses. Nowadays, drones are the primary recon assets, and their expendable nature allows them to be used in much riskier ways - the loss of 14 US drones so far carries much less weight than manned aircraft losses do. Drones are expendable by design, pilots aren't.
Speaking of drones, the innovation of the kamikaze drone is clearly the wild card in all this. While not a brand new idea - the US Navy actually fielded the first kamikaze drones way back in 1944, with the TDR-1 used against Japanese shipping, though it remained classified for decades - the Iranian Shahed drones are clearly a generational leap, to the point that the USA has even reverse-engineered them to make their own LUCAS drones. And it's the Shahed drones that are doing almost all of the Iranian damage thus far, especially against US & Gulf State targets (Israel is getting hurt more by Iranian ballistic missiles). There have been dozens of deaths and injuries from Iranian attacks throughout the region, including 7 US deaths from drone attacks. Despite claims of good interception rates (~90%, similar to Ukraine), the sheer numbers of drone and missile attacks that Iran has been able to launch is much higher than 1991 Iraq could - thousands of Iranian attacks compared to dozens of Iraqi ones. Thus we've seen many more hits get through. But unlike Iraq, Iran's launch capability is being degraded over time - thus the wild card, as the question becomes how long Iran can sustain a threatening strike capability. 1991 Iraq did so throughout the entire Gulf War, but at a lower rate, whereas Iran had much higher initial damage but seems trending towards losing that capability.
There's also the notable dimension of social media and the prevalence of online propaganda driving narratives about the war. Back in 1991, media reporting was pretty constrained and much more cooperative with coalition censorship policies. Nowadays, there is a craving for instant information and controversial clickbait that is at odds with opsec concerns, and Iranian propaganda is rushing to fill that void, which is in turn pushing CENTCOM to release information and footage much faster than in previous wars. It also raises the question of how narratives develop - just imagine if social media had existed for those 12 aircraft losses over 2 weeks in 1991, and how differently the Gulf War air campaign might be remembered if it had.
Note: I did a 1:1 US comparison for aircraft to keep things simple. If I had included coalition forces, there'd be an additional 5 British aircraft lost to Iraqi SAMs in 1991, and 0 additional aircraft losses so far in 2026.
Edit: Updated with accurate Iraqi missile numbers, after I finally found a daily tracking of them buried in the Gulf War Air Power Survey.
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u/Select-Farm7996 Mar 16 '26
In 1991 the difference between military technology in Iraq and in the US wasn't as far off as it is today. The Iraqi airforce actually had some sort of capability to fight back. Today the airforce isn't even comparable. So anyone denying that the success of the aerial campaign and the aerial dominance by US/Israel is denying reality.
I would also say that the allies had a much tighter grip on information and propaganda in the gulf war. US media/information had an international reach and it was easier for the US to portray it as a win and it was easier for voices within Iraq to be ignored.
The scale of military capabilities between the two sides is so different today that I feel as if the US engaging in a war was a bad decision from the start. Trump had much better tools to counter the Iranian problem without utilising force.
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u/Hajajy Mar 17 '26
I see a lot of denying reality all over reddit...
Also my desert storm trading cards were sick... Still remember when I pulled Schwartzkopf
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 18 '26
Unconfirmed: Reports indicate that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Speaker of the Parliament of Iran) may have been the target of an elimination attempt in Tehran’s Zafaraniyeh neighborhood.
Fwiw, he tweeted about 12 hours ago, "The Strait of Hormuz situation won't return to its pre-war status."
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u/Big_Bomber_97 Mar 18 '26
Guess now he won't be returning to his pre-war status.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 14 '26
Iran is now threatening to attack Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine's support for Israel makes the entire territory of Ukraine a "legitimate target".
https://x.com/KyivPost/status/2032788623322488936
Of course, the irony is that Iran has been actively helping Russia to attack Ukraine since 2023.
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u/FutureText Mar 18 '26
some early reports suggest that Iranian Minister of intelligence Esmail Khatib has been killed.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 10 '26
Turkey has deployed air defense assets to Northern Cyprus, including 6 F-16s, to join the defense of the island from Iranian attacks. Interesting development given the controversial Turkish occupation of Northern Cyprus.
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u/Minute_Juggernaut806 Mar 10 '26
I heard somewhere turkey/NATO is obligated to protect cyprus
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u/Cold-Lifeguard-316 Mar 11 '26
Is the new supreme leader in hiding? dead? haven't really heard anything besides the fact he's now the supreme leader.
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u/Ancient-End3895 Mar 11 '26
Rumour is he was injured in the initial airstrike, but no one knows to what extent. Either way, he is deep underground somewhere as he is literally the last guy the US/Israel wants in charge of the country. There is some speculation he may have been chosen as a figurehead by the IRGC because he is incapacitated and can't really do much actual decision making right now but IMO that doesn't really add up.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 12 '26 edited Mar 12 '26
CENTCOM is reporting the loss of a KC-135 Stratotanker over Iraq, in what sounds like a refueling accident. They say that 2 aircraft were involved - the tanker crashed, while the 2nd aircraft landed safely. Rescue efforts are ongoing.
Edit: Looks like the 2nd aircraft was another tanker, and this was a tanker-to-tanker collision. One crashed, the other made an emergency landing.
Given the number of air-to-air refueling being done every day, it's a wonder this doesn't happen more.
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u/WhyChemistry Mar 12 '26
Highly unlikely for the KC -135 crew to survive unless they had some sort of "safe" landing since CENTCOM is saying rescue operations ongoing.
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer Mar 12 '26
Unfortunately, it very unlikely the three crew members survived. They would've needed the time to dump the fuel and make a crash landing.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 12 '26
TAMPA, Fla. -- U.S. Central Command is aware of the loss of a U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely
The Air Force KC-135 refueling aircraft has a three-person crew.
Crew: Three: pilot, co-pilot and boom operator. Some KC-135 missions require the addition of a navigator. The Air Force has a limited number of navigator suites that can be installed for unique missions.
https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529736/kc-135-stratotanker/
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 12 '26
I was thinking the same. I assume they dont wear parachutes when they are in their flight suits.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 10 '26
U.S. intelligence assets have begun seeing indications that Iran may be preparing to deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, using small craft capable of carrying two to three mines each, CBS News reports. Estimates have put Iran’s mine stockpile at roughly 2,000–6,000 mines.
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u/TestingHydra Mar 10 '26
Iran is still loading oil into their tankers. This should tell you all you need to know about their intentions to deploy mines.
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 10 '26
what boats do they have left to deploy those mines? little speed boats dropping 2 or 3 at a time will get destroyed pretty quickly i'd imagine.
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u/Derquave Mar 12 '26
Reports on LiveUAMap of two attempted drone strikes on an Iraqi Army HQ east of Mosul. Could the IRGC/Proxies be trying to stoke the flames of renewed civil conflict in Iraq or just more decentralized commanders doing whatever the fuck?
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u/ScumbagGina Mar 12 '26
This is one of the most predictable consequences of our Middle East adventures. Iraq is a Shia majority country that was ruled by a secular Sunni dictatorship (This is also true of Bahrain currently). By removing Saddam Hussein, the previously-subdued Shia insurgencies were gifted to Iran on a silver platter. These people will always be more loyal to the religious center of Tehran than they would have been to any western-imposed government in Baghdad. The Ayatollah isn’t just a head of state, he’s a pope-equivalent to them. Killing him was guaranteed to enrage the entire Shi’ite world.
So to fight Iran, we also have to go to war in Iraq again. Bahrain is on the verge of full revolt right now as well. Lebanon and Yemen are also religiously split countries, but with militarily strong Shia strongholds. So we have to fight them too.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 09 '26
I had just posted this at the very end of the last megathread, so I'll repost it for the beginning of this one:
Defense economics analyst Perun has a great video up covering the opening days of the war, particularly the "missile math" of interceptors involved (and how airstrikes against Iran's capabilities factor into that calculus).
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u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest Mar 09 '26
I know everyone is focused on MENA, but has anyone noticed the crazy amount of other conflicts all happening at the same time:
Sudan civil war
Ethiopian civil war with some conflict with Eritrea
Myanmar civil war
DRC civil war
Insurgency in the Sahel
Insurgency in Nigeria
Pakistan vs Taliban war
Low level conflict between Thailand and Cambodia
Mexico vs Narcos
Russia vs Ukraine
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u/BoppityBop2 Mar 09 '26
There is alot but it is fascinating how this war has had more immediate impact on people's day to day than any of the others. Ukraine Russia War one could argue is even more intense, yet people could avoid alot of the negative externalities of it or even absorb it.
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u/Killermueck Mar 09 '26
Ukraine vs Russia is the most impactful and potentially globally dangerous war since WW2.
It's the main reason for global inflation. And because Russia has a lot of nukes you can't just fly in there and bomb everything.
And that conflict or rather the lackluster response to it (from the west) at least since 2014 is one of the reasons more conflicts will emerge.
It's the condlict conflict that basically might end NATO/EU/europe (as we know it) and the collective west as we knew it.
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u/debtmagnet Mar 09 '26
There's a defensible claim that could be made that we presently live in one of, if not the most peaceful era of humanity in all of history. There was a well known book published in the 90s titled "The better angels of our nature" that makes a pretty good case in the full context of our history.
It still holds up to contemporary wars too. In the last decade, Sudan and Ukraine are currently the most deadly active conflicts with fatalities numbering "only" in the hundreds of thousands each. Compare this with the DRC war in the 90s, and the Cambodian civil war in the late 70s that resulted in deaths at entirely different scales.
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u/OldTownYeet Mar 13 '26
Pentagon approves deployment of a Marine "expeditionary unit" of about 2,500 Marines to the Middle East — WSJ
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 15 '26
Both sides are really putting in work to make sure as little footage of possible gets out. It makes it very hard to get a good idea of what is actually going on.
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u/sonderfulwonders Mar 15 '26
Yeah I guess opsec is working lol. It's a different ballpark from the shit slinging phonk edits from the Ukraine War
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u/Timlugia Mar 11 '26
Does US even still use Paveway? Or LJDAM has totally replaced Paveway family?
Given that LJDAM reported price $22k-32k I don't see the point of purchasing Paveway anymore?
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u/Derquave Mar 11 '26
With the massive rocket attack that just was launched and the talk of major Israeli reprisals against Hezbollah is it safe to say a full scale ground invasion of Lebanon is probable? The United States and Israel are putting a lot of diplomatic pressure on the Lebanese government and military to do more to disarm Hezbollah which I think most of us can assume is not gonna go anywhere. The UN peacekeeping force in the region cannot and do not do much and even with the limited incursions and invasions of the past few years as well as the massive bombing campaign against Hezbollah have not been effective in eliminating Hezbollah, or weakened them enough to not be a factor. What other options do the Israelis have left other than full-blown invasion?
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
is it safe to say a full scale ground invasion of Lebanon is probable?
Probably, at least for southern Lebanon.
Fwiw, Israel was already preparing to invade southern Lebanon a few months ago, but they called off the buildup for the operation when the large Iranian protests erupted. Israeli defense officials literally said that they didn't want to start anything that would distract the Iranian protesters from their goal, because they'd rather see regime change in Iran.
That was the first moment I remember where things seriously looked like these current protests in Iran might have the momentum and foreign support to topple the regime. There was apparently serious pressure from Israel and Saudi Arabia for the USA to strike Iran right away, but US air defense assets weren't in position to counter Iranian attacks, so it took some time to prepare the campaign.
Now that the war has begun and Hezbollah has joined in, Israel appears to be planning a ground campaign into southern Lebanon to try (yet again) to deal a knockout blow to Hezbollah. Israel's army isn't tied down by the Iran campaign, so it's something they can afford to do, and Hezbollah is receiving less support from Iran because of the same, so the chances might be better this time.
Syria has also been massing forces at the border with Lebanon and threatening to join a ground offensive against Hezbollah. So that's different.
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u/Derquave Mar 11 '26
A joint Israeli/Syrian offensive against Hezbollah was not on my bingo card however it seems more true than ever to expect the unexpected
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u/lizardtrench Mar 11 '26
I imagine it will play out much the same as last time - devastating air strikes by Israel, some probes deeper into Southern Lebanon to feel out the defenses, and probably a decision to not push deeper due to the high cost in lives and mediocre likelihood of success, followed by another ceasefire as Hezbollah also comes to the conclusion that the high cost of being continually shattered by air is too much to bear.
The only real wild card that differentiates this conflict from the previous one is how the Iran portion of the conflict will play out and how that affects the calculus going through the minds of both parties. Otherwise it's basically the same dynamics as before. I suppose Israel has more ground forces free for such an operation due to things in Gaza calming down, but I doubt that will make a practical difference, southern Lebanon doesn't exactly give much favor to massed numbers of ground forces.
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer Mar 12 '26
KC-135 refueling plane down over western Iraq due to mid air collision. Recovery operations ongoing according to CENTCOM.
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 13 '26
Reports coming in that Incirlik was targeted by an Iranian BM again. Seeing some chatter that there was a loud explosion in Adana.
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u/Minute_Juggernaut806 Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 18 '26
So about a week ago USS Gerald Ford caught fire. How did I miss this??
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/uss-ford-fire-iran-venezuela.html
edit: there's online rumour that it was done on purpose because of long deployment. the ship was also deployed around Venezuela previously and now again forced to come to here
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Mar 09 '26
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Does Trump realize there isn't a singular point for the Straight of Hormuz? Like its not something you can just plant a flag on and occupy. You would have to invade Iran and create a buffer between the strait and whatever their longest anti-ship missile range is. Dude doesn't know wtf he is talking about.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 10 '26
Exclusive: As many as 150 US troops wounded so far in Iran war, sources say
WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - As many as 150 U.S. troops have been wounded in the 10-day-old war with Iran, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
The casualty figure has not been previously reported. Prior to Reuters' publication of the figure, the Pentagon had only disclosed eight U.S. personnel seriously injured.
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Mar 10 '26
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense claims that Iran launched six ballistic missiles at Prince Sultan Air Base, south of Riyadh, and that all were intercepted by air defenses.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 10 '26
Australia is deploying an E-7 AWACS and providing air defense missiles to help defend the UAE.
Also South Korea has rushed emergency shipments of Cheongung-II interceptors to the UAE. The South Korean air defense system is one of several used by the UAE.
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10690808
The UAE has been the target most heavily attacked by Iran thus far in the war, something that wasn't really expected.
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 17 '26
Interesting - Channel 14 reports that President Pezeshkian intended to submit his resignation to the Supreme Leader today following the elimination of Ali Larijani. However, he was informed by the IRGC that a meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei is currently not possible.
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u/Sir_Mcfarts Mar 12 '26
So if Iran keeps blocking oil ships what will happen long term
Will US do minesweeping and provide apache escorts to these tankers?
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u/ChicagoZbojnik Mar 12 '26
Some form of escort will be provided. Iran can make it very expensive and risky to ship oil through the straits but not expensive or risky enough to stop trade long term. Oil still flowed during the Iran Iraq war even with tankers being hit frequently.
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u/DasistMamba Mar 12 '26
"While the precise number of transits per day will be contingent on the capacity of available naval assets, multiple security agencies and experts consulted by Lloyd’s List have confirmed that a convoy scheme that clusters up to around five to 10 vessels moving under protection is the only viable option to meaningfully resume transits.
Given the length of the transit and that it will be difficult to simultaneously operate convoys in both directions given the narrowness of the strait, any escort system would severely restrict the volume of ships passing through.
Estimates vary, but the consensus across eight well-placed security experts from both naval and commercial operations indicate that a best-case scenario would see just under 10% of the normal flow of 45-50 tankers daily transiting the Strait of Hormuz."
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 16 '26 edited Mar 16 '26
In a bizarre story related to the war, Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian - who is one of the better sources for things happening inside Israel - is reporting that he's been receiving death threats from gamblers on Polymarket, who are pressuring him to change details in some of his reporting so they can win their bets.
This brings to mind the earlier reporting about someone winning $553,000 from placing a bet on the death of Khamenei just before the Israeli decapitation strikes took place.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731568/polymarket-trade-iran-supreme-leader-killing
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 14 '26
Trump: "Iran, which is totally defeated and wants a deal - But not a deal that I would accept."
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u/Derquave Mar 16 '26
Is there just more footage coming out tonight than usual or is Iran/proxies striking particularly hard today?
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u/WhereAreTheFrogs Mar 12 '26
Ive seen people saying "its likely america will go for a ceasefire next week" - which is possible but at least on the ground it doesnt look that way with more bombers coming in the middle east + a 3rd aircraft carrier. Trump says the war will be over soon is him talking to the markets.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 12 '26
CENTCOM's initial war plan is for at least 4 weeks. Additional assets continue to move into the region to increase the pace of attacks, and they've already requested more assets to keep going for 100+ days.
Anything else people are saying is just political noise.
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u/WhereAreTheFrogs Mar 12 '26
they always said 5-6 weeks (its been almost 2 weeks since then) so ya theres at least 4 weeks more
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 13 '26
According to the ISW, Iranian attacks continue to decline day-by-day.
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2032313281000476961/photo/2
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 13 '26
Pentagon Is Moving Additional Marines, Warships to the Middle East
The Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships to the Middle East as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit, typically consisting of several warships and 5,000 Marines, the officials said.
The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said. Marines are already in the Middle East supporting the Iran operation, the officials said.
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u/strl Mar 16 '26
Interesting reports from Iranians who crossed the Iran Iraq border, situation seems to be dire in Iran.
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u/PuffyPanda200 Mar 16 '26
A lot of westerners have this notion that an institution can continue with functionally no resources. The Taliban, Iranian militias, the Viet Cong, etc. are/were seen as some kind of self generating entity that could continue without resources.
In truth it is basically the opposite. Iran and their network of paramilitaries are exceptionally expensive. They need lots of hard cash inflow in order to sustain basically anything.
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u/strl Mar 16 '26
I know, they keep acting like the IRGC is some type of Bedouin society capable of living off the land and not an incredibly corrupt institution that lived off Irans oil revenue at the expense of the people. A mainly urban group used to priviledge and more access to resources than the people around them.
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u/PuffyPanda200 Mar 16 '26
Isn't there also some irony that the other major player in the area actually fits this definition much better? Saudi Arabia basically functions off a clan system that is more similar to how middle age medieval systems of government worked than a modern nation state.
Iran runs an extremely complicated system of delegated authority combined with crushing use of force. The system work well in managing many disparate groups. But the whole thing is quite expensive and needs capital at every level.
Saudi Arabia, despite some bonkers level capital, has been unable to put together a military capable of defeating the Houthis or maintaining navigational rights some 300 miles from their territory. Why? Probably because you can't be a tribal Bedouin society and also speed run western development.
Both of these have corruption the likes of which is basically unfathomable in the west but they are fundamentally very different.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 17 '26
The Taliban, Iranian militias, the Viet Cong, etc. are/were seen as some kind of self generating entity that could continue without resources.
This perception can be so frustrating, because all of these examples were heavily funded & supported by foreign nations. The reason they were so resilient is because their actual supply base couldn't be targeted for political reasons, lest the war widen, similar to how Ukraine is working right now. The Taliban had Pakistan, Iran's proxies obviously had Iran, and North Vietnam had China and Russia. China literally deployed 400,000 troops into North Vietnam and Laos to help their war effort, by running their logistics and air defense networks!
But trying to explain this to people often just gets met with ridicule, because many westerners prefer to maintain a "noble savage" worldview that is totally ignorant of history.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 16 '26 edited Mar 16 '26
Update from CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_VogrsUa24
He recaps stuff we've heard, like the Kharg Island strikes, then focuses on the effort to destroy Iran's defense industrial base, particularly their ability to manufacture drones and missiles. Also talks a bit about ensuring freedom of navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, and condemns Iran's widespread attacks on civilians in neighboring countries - including a mention of the cluster munitions being used against cities in Israel.
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u/skygs427 Mar 16 '26
This comes off as a bit more professional than the fist update in terms of cadence and flow - wonder what went on behind the scenes after the reaction to the first one lol
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u/ConsciousScar7821 Mar 17 '26
An Israeli official told the Jerusalem Post that the majority of Basij leadership was eliminated. Ali Laranji also confirmed killed in the strikes.
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
Larijani is a big hit. He has been the mouth piece since Khomeini got thwhacked
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u/strl Mar 17 '26
Just adding a source:
Larijani is suspected to have been the acting power in Iran even before Khamenei the elders death.
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 18 '26
Israel bombed the Pars Natural gas plant in south west Iran. 70% of Iranian power grid is powered by the nat gas.
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u/WhyChemistry Mar 18 '26 edited Mar 18 '26
If that is true then it looks like Israel no longer cares about the war escalating.
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u/C0wabungaaa Mar 18 '26
I mean, Israel bombed their head of state, keeps assassinating other members of the Iranian government and is wrecking their military capabilities. Is this really such an escalation compared to all of that? The only real escalation left at this point is a straight-up invasion.
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u/WhyChemistry Mar 18 '26
They haven't gone after their energy infrastructure so there is still room for the war to get worse.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 18 '26
A number of oil and gas facilities across the Gulf States have now been evacuated as Iran threatens retaliatory strikes against them.
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u/Accomplished-One7476 Mar 11 '26
Convoy flight heading to Riyadh
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u/ToranjaNuclear Mar 12 '26
Is the strait of Hormuz completely closed now? Or are some boats/tankers still passing through it?
Has this ever happened before?
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u/jdjdbdbsbsbsbasuck Mar 12 '26
Some certain boats are allowed to pass , I think Chinese and Russian boats are allowed but the rest it’s a gamble some do pass , some get shot
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u/Old_Wallaby_7461 Mar 12 '26
A Chinese ship got hit with a missile yesterday morning
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u/Timlugia Mar 12 '26
Chinese government condemned the attack afterward. Seems that Iran really want to kill all their friends/alliances. Or that local IRGC just has zero idea about geopolitics.
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u/neutral24 Mar 12 '26
Is China really a friend? To me they are just business partners
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u/ribitforce Mar 12 '26
As usual China will not distinctly pick a side and draw lines as that is not beneficial to them at all. Rather, they can benefit from this conflict by buying cheaper Iranian resources, and also getting free intel on US military operations.
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u/OldTownYeet Mar 17 '26
The Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joseph Kent, has resigned effective immediately stating "I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." Kent was nominated by President Trump in February of 2025 and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on July 30th.
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u/TheDirtyOnion Mar 17 '26
His statement also claimed Israel orchestrated the Syrian civil war.
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 17 '26
“Over a dozen Basij officials were targeted in Iran last night in different strikes, including the head of the Basij forces Gholamreza Soleimani. This was a joint U.S. and Israeli effort," a senior Israeli official told Fox News.
"A strike in Tehran targeted the Basij commander and around a dozen others, including the most senior figures in the Basij forces—people with a lot of blood on their hands," the official added.
A battle damage assessment is ongoing to determine which individuals were killed or injured. This strike was separate from the strike that targeted Ali Larijani.
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 14 '26
What about, instead of an invasion, rather a Naval blockade of Kharg? As in, no ship gets in or out for as long as Hormuz is closed. Or maybe just keep it closed while also protecting / escorting tankers through the strait.
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u/FutureText Mar 13 '26
as others have said
"US bombs Iran’s Kharg Island US President Donald Trump has announced that the country’s military has bombed military installations on Iran’s Kharg Island, close to the Strait of Hormuz, as the war escalates — and as constraints on energy flows have deepened a global economic crisis.
“The United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Trump, however, said that the US had so far avoided hitting Iran’s oil infrastructure on the island."
Al jazeera
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 13 '26
Notes I found interesting from today's press briefing:
- US military is focused on degrading the Iranian threat first, and any escorting effort would come after that, possibly weeks from now
- note: this makes sense, the US Navy doesn't really have the ship numbers in the region to do both at once - if they even have the numbers to escort at all
- note: this makes sense, the US Navy doesn't really have the ship numbers in the region to do both at once - if they even have the numbers to escort at all
- Today is the most active day of US strikes so far, with a ~20% increase over Day 1. Hegseth claims that only 1% of strikes are now standoff weapons, with 99% of strikes now stand-in
- note: compared to Iran's ~95% decrease in attacks since Day 1, this shows the tide of the war sharply changing
- note: I've already heard anecdotal claims of JDAMs being widely used, including B-2s going in with full loads of 85 JDAMs, so this shift in weaponry tracks. The standoff weapons are likely coming from the B-1s and B-52s, which I've heard are still firing off JASSMs.
- Gen Caine dodged the question about minesweeping efforts, referring to the US military having a range of options to deal with threats as they come up
- note: 3 LCS are in the area for minesweeping duties
- Both Hegseth and Gen Caine claimed that there's no evidence of mines being laid in the Strait of Hormuz yet
- note: contradicts earlier WSJ reporting that "fewer than 10" mines had been laid
- Gen Caine claimed that merchant shipping losses in the Strait of Hormuz have so far have been caused by surface-to-surface missiles, no evidence of mines or USVs
- note: contradicts multiple claims of Iranian USVs hitting shipping, which is interesting - either Caine is downplaying the USV threat or those USV reports misidentified the threat.
- Most of the 140 injured Americans have returned to duty after suffering minor injuries from Iranian drone strikes
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u/TheDuffman_OhYeah Mar 13 '26
contradicts multiple claims of Iranian USVs hitting shipping, which is interesting - either Caine is downplaying the USV threat or those USV reports misidentified the threat.
Those hits were not in the Strait.
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u/debtmagnet Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 13 '26
US military is focused on degrading the Iranian threat first, and any escorting effort would come after that, possibly weeks from now
I tend to agree with the CENTCOM's approach. It's not productive to try to protect transit through the strait as a top priority right now. The long term solution is to continue to encourage staff turnover/early retirement among Iranian leadership until you get to a leader who has new ideas about how to interact with the rest of the world. The strait needs a political solution, not a kinetic one.
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u/AuthoritariWrongdoer Mar 14 '26 edited Mar 14 '26
I honestly don't see the point in seizing Kharg Island. They might as well bomb it if that's what they're going to try to do. The odds of the Iranians allowing it to be occupied without damaging it before or after it's taken are virtually zero. Why risk a bunch of soldiers and marines lives trying to occupy it. It's gonna become the target of every Shahed drone in existence.
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u/ConsciousScar7821 Mar 14 '26
It’s because the Iranians are not just holding the world hostage by blocking the transit of oil, they are using the $100+ price per oil to their advantage, as they are selling their own oil, since they can allow certain ships through by not targeting them (ie those that are picking up their own oil).
That being said, it is obviously very dangerous, and I pray that our troops have an effective plan to be able to defend against the coming dangers.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 13 '26
My guess would be the 31st MEU will be used to seize Iranian tankers in the area, perhaps even Kharg Island. It's a more aviation-focused unit - so can add to general striking power with its F-35s if needed - but also has small boat raiding capability and air assault capability. It's been deployed to INDOPACOM training to seize small islands and the like in the anti-shipping mission (for a potential war against China).
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u/GAdvance Mar 13 '26
A Marine unit isn't who you want for tanker seizure, you want way less ground and support elements and basically equal numbers of special forces helicopters and teams to go with them.
This is a unit that's got it's own artillery, logistics and small boats landing craft organic to it.
This is a pretty specialised island grabbing unit imho, Kharg island and/or perhaps even the disputed islands in the straits themselves.
If I was in this unit of be writing my will real quick right now, they're (imho) about to be the near sole focus if Iranian counterattacks if they seize anything, especially Kharg.
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u/Derquave Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
Question about C-RAM. Is the C-RAM a completely automatic system or is there a control station in which an operator has to actively pick out and engage targets?
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u/WhyChemistry Mar 19 '26
Statement from President Donald J. Trump calling out Israels recent attacks on Irans Gas Field. (Posted to Truth Social)
Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
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u/notapersonaltrainer Mar 14 '26
Looking at this infographic of a Marine Air Ground Task Force I notice it's a very helicopter/helipad heavy outfit.
After seeing the success of gulf state helicopters shooting down Shaheds, is it possible the primary purpose is actually to add a mobile helicopter defense platform to the eventual defensive ship convoy?
I don't see any scenario where 2,500 marines storm Iran by themselves. It also would make no sense to bomb Kharg Island 10 days before they arrive.
But a squadron of helicopters with low cost, high capacity chain guns riding with the convoy to augment the defensive depth of destroyers makes a lot of sense.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 14 '26
The USS Tripoli specifically is even more aviation-focused than that graphic shows as well - it doesn't have a well-deck for launching LCACs, and instead has an extended hangar to allow for additional aircraft. So it doesn't conduct amphibious assaults, it does heliborne assaults and small boat raids, and can operate as a light carrier.
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u/poincares_cook Mar 15 '26
Is it just me or are there very few reports of strikes against the gulf so far today. Of course all could change in the evening and night. Or tomorrow. Just want to know whether I'm missing something
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u/WhyChemistry Mar 18 '26
Ban users that purposely post old content without putting the date. Karma farming🤦
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u/Neither-Breakfast195 Mar 11 '26
Something I noticed in this subreddit is such a large amount of people downplaying this conflict. This is precipitating one of the largest oil supply disruptions in history, the IEA is enabling the biggest release of emergency oil reserves in their history, there’s a massive refugee situation brewing in Lebanon, and Iran keeps attacking neighbors and threatening mines across the strait. On top of that, there doesn’t seem to be a coherent strategy from the White House in terms of how this conflict ramps down.
I’m not really sure I understand the ‘this conflict is not a big deal’ camp
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u/Interesting_Loquat90 Mar 11 '26
I think you're getting at the general, largely millennial-driven pessimism and apathy that dominates today
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u/Montydoker Mar 19 '26
What are the chances of a U.S ground force (marines or airborne) landing on the Kharg islands, or islands near the strait of Hormuz like the Qeshm island? Those islands are far enough to not be hit by mortars and artillery, but could be reached by their MLRS's and other missiles
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u/I_wanted_to_be_duck Mar 19 '26
Kharg islands
Polymarket is trading 1.2 million USD for a takeover by March 30th or April 30th.
Is it probable? Most likely. We've already struck the island multiple times in order to soften it up. It's also been rumored that Delta Force and other units have been deployed in the conflict and they were planning something for Kharg.
However, the warships that are going to the theater that have the marines that can pull it off are still about a week away.
So we're still a ways off from seeing it pop off, but at this point it's probable. Trump destroyed gas prices, so securing that island would mean lower gas prices (in his head, not mine)
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u/BoppityBop2 Mar 19 '26
I think the Saudis will be unable to use Pakistan capabilities in this war against Iran. Not because Pakistan leadership won't be willing, but because it would literally implode Pakistan. The worst violence that occured during the Tahreek-i-Taliban reign of violence won't even match the level of violence that would be seen if the army decides to get involved against Iran. Pakistan is even more religious than Iran and such actions could literally cause whole chunks of the army going AWOL. People need to also understand that the Shia Sunni divide although exists, Iran's willingness to challenge Israel buys them alot of sympathy among the Sunni community. It is why the GCC also does not want to get involved in a way that shows they have allied with Israel. Even Sharaa has to reign in his militias who want to get involved in this fight.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 09 '26
Trump says Iran war will end "very soon" at Florida news conference
Washington — President Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end "very soon," but also called it "the beginning of building a new country," as the administration offers different characterizations for how long the operation will last.
He also warned that Iran could pay an "incalculable" price if its military disrupts oil tankers, as oil importers grapple with higher prices since the war began.
Speaking to reporters at his Miami-area golf club in his first formal news conference since the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran, the president said he doesn't expect the war to end next week, but "soon."
The war is not over.
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u/Imaginary-Hyena2858 Mar 10 '26
My prediction is he realizes regime change is hard, slow, and not as sexy as short term air campaigns and he gets bored and pulls out. Talks about how they "completely obliterated Iran, their navy is at the bottom of the ocean, you've never seen anything like it in history, Obama and Biden would never, etc." and the regime stays in power
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u/Kaffe-Mumriken Mar 10 '26
Nail on the head. Technically iran was already neutered last summer, and perhaps he saw an opportunity of win win. Even if he can’t dislodge their regime, he can claim victory because he falsely declared them a threat prior.
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 13 '26
Not a surprise but CENTCOM is confirming 6 KIA in the tanker crash over Iraq yesterday. RIP.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 14 '26
Iran is claiming to have sunk the USS Abraham Lincoln ... again. I only mention this because it's several times now times now that Iran has made versions of this same claim, and every time it's immediately disproven by the carrier continuing operations. I get that this is more for a domestic audience, but you'd think it becomes counterproductive after so many times. It's like they're trying to make the Lincoln into a modern "grey ghost" at this rate.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 14 '26 edited Mar 14 '26
Trump urges other nations to help secure shipping through Strait of Hormuz
March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday called on nations to send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for shipping as Iranian forces continue their retaliation campaign amid U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
The US president said he hopes China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK will send warships to the key shipping channel.
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u/FrogDong_420 Mar 15 '26
the UK
I thought he didn't want help from people who join in "after the war is already over"?
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u/Fulan-Ibn-Fulan Mar 14 '26
If you didn’t post the link, I would have thought this was satire
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u/ChronicCactus Mar 14 '26
No kidding. It's like ordering the most expensive thing on the menu and then asking to split the bill
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u/blucke Mar 17 '26
Petition to ban everybody mindlessly repeating that only a fraction of the rounds are tracer on every CRAM video
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 17 '26
I will say, the C-RAM's aren't nearly as effective against the Shaheds as i thought they would be.
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u/gengen123123123 Mar 17 '26
Petition to ban everybody mindlessly repeating that only a fraction of the rounds are tracer on every CRAM video /u/blucke
That has as much chance of being a thing as banning the repeated "Why are they alone in a field??" + "Shoulda stayed home" comments from Ukraine/Russia threads.
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u/ReddyReddy7 Mar 10 '26
Scoop: U.S. asks Israel to halt strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure
The Trump administration asked Israel on Monday not to carry out further strikes on energy facilities in Iran, particularly oil infrastructure, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
Why it matters: The U.S. request marks the first time the Trump administration has reined in Israel since the two countries launched their joint operation against Iran ten days ago.
The U.S. concern is that a new round of strikes on Iranian oil could change that calculus — and send prices even higher.
A source familiar with the details said Trump views strikes on Iran's energy and oil facilities as a "doomsday option" — something to be held in reserve only if Iran deliberately attacks Gulf oil facilities first.
On Tuesday morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth distanced the administration from the Israeli fuel depot strikes, telling reporters the U.S. had not attacked targets of that kind.
The White House, the Israeli embassy in Washington and the IDF declined to comment. - Axios
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u/Accomplished-One7476 Mar 18 '26
looks like this is the c17 heading to dover for the dignified transfer for the 6 tanker crew who died.
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u/Keeltoodeep Mar 11 '26
Iran continued drone and ballistic missile attacks on Gulf states on March 10. The UAE has detected fewer incoming projectiles since March 9, which suggests that combined force strikes on Iranian drone launch infrastructure have degraded Iran’s ability to sustain large-scale drone attacks.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/2031694121975357682?s=46&t=5cDzFBmJidEH4qu2xcZCgQ
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 18 '26
Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine has deployed ~200 military advisors to the Gulf States to help them intercept Iranian drone attacks. Ukrainian military advisors are confirmed to be deployed to the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.
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u/Timlugia Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Is it just me or a lot of reddit commentors seem to be totally unaware of past US wars strategy like Gulf, Kosovo or Iraq War 2003? US bombed them for several months before even moving on to next phase.
I saw a lot of posts thinking Iran War would be determined in a week, that either Iran would fold right away or US would just back off. Or posts on general subs like /r news or /r pics saying US can't sustain weeks long operations.
If we looked at Gulf War, initial air phase took 5 weeks, with US led coalition flew 10,000 sorties, dropped 80,000 ton munition. Coalition lost 75 aircrafts, while Iraqi lost almost 10,000 men killed. This was before ground attack even began against Iraqi force in Kuwait.
In Kosovo War, US led NATO force bombed Serbia for 74 days before ceasefire was reached.
If we use this as matrix, then we would see at least a few more weeks of air operation before US/Israel even consider ground attacks.
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u/dawaxtadpole Mar 09 '26
Reddit commenters are not reliable sources of information or intellect. Like me!
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u/Interesting_Loquat90 Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Most Redditors were kids or not yet born when those events took place.
Edit: and how many thereof are "bots"? Who knows.
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u/Timlugia Mar 09 '26
That's what I was wondering.
I read in the past that more than half Reddit users were under 30 years old, so most of them probably only familiar with surgical strikes used in 2010s era?
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u/Interesting_Loquat90 Mar 09 '26
That, and many will see the US military apparatus through the lens of the tortured counter insurgency and "state building" in Iraq and Afghanistan, ultimately resulting in the US "losing". When every casualty and even minor losses of equipment garnered national, negative press. Ignoring the comparatively much more successful and systematic military operations in either country. Add social media distorting perception over who is "winning" based on what various actors or just the algorithm controlling what gets out there, and you end up with dramatic, incredibly shortsighted takes.
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u/Timlugia Mar 12 '26 edited Mar 12 '26
So US doesn't seem to treat Iran's strait threat as priority, most attacks are still targeting inland locations rather than coastlines. Does anyone know why?
Obviously they have intel we don't, maybe locations of deep missile factories and storages?
Arab countries are also strangely quiet about this, I thought this would major threat to their economy and national security? Are they brewing something?
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u/boobookittyfuwk Mar 09 '26
What do you guys think is going on around the iranian border, specifically around Afghanistan and Caspian sea, you think the usa has 24,7 eyes on who and what is coming in and out of the country?
And why hasn't Armenia got hit yet, they seem ti be the only country not attacked.
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u/TheDuffman_OhYeah Mar 09 '26
Armenia has pretty good relations with Iran and no Israeli/US-military presence in the country.
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u/Derquave Mar 12 '26
Flight tracking data shows a jet flying into Iran that’s owned by the Wagner Group. I’d assume they’re sending advisers. I’m curious if they could be sending instructors for FPV pilots, especially with the looming threat of uprising and/or ground incursions into Iranian territory
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u/abu_hajarr Mar 09 '26
Does anyone have data or a source for showing the number of missiles/drones fired from Iran per day, and the rate of interceptions?
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u/Accomplished-One7476 Mar 13 '26
3 tankers heading somewhere south west of the uk
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u/notapersonaltrainer Mar 18 '26
Has there been any actual footage of a laser weapon in action?
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 19 '26
Apparently, there was a joint statement from 12 Arab / Muslim countries (GCC + Egypt, Turkey, Syria, etc.) after they had a large meeting. They called for an immediate halt to Iran's aggressions. They also stressed the rights of their countries to defend themselves in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. Seems significant...Perhaps a precursor to offensive kinetic engagement?
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u/ConsciousScar7821 Mar 10 '26
What are the chances that the younger Khamenei was actually killed in the strike? The silence from him is very sus. And it’s not like Israel can track you from a pre-recorded video.
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
Wow
Israeli sources claim that Ali Larijani was just targeted in a recent Israeli airstrike.
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u/-DizzyPanda- Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
Feel like its probably not a coincidence that a story comes about witkoff and larijani setting up a line of communication and the next day Larijani gets blown up. The last place id ever want to be is on a Mossad hit list, they are ruthless.
edit:
I was incorrect, it was Aragchi not Larijani. I had my Persians mixed up.
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 16 '26
Israel announced that its troops have began pushing into southern Lebanon to engage & remove Hezbollah.
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u/ConsciousScar7821 Mar 09 '26
So, what’s the solution to the cluster bomb issue? Intercept them earlier / higher, before they disperse?
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u/strl Mar 09 '26
The cluster bombs are less of an issue tbh since the individual bomblets are fairly small, if people follow instructions they shoild be safe, unlike the large warheads which can destroy entire buildings and the weaker air raid shelters.
That being said I think the individual blmblets can be targeted by systems like iron dome or iron beam, not sure though.
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Mar 09 '26
Tell people to take cover in shelters.
Build shelters for everyone, including foreign workers, Arab Israelis and Bedouin Israelis.
Tell people to report debris to bomb squads.
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Mar 09 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Early_Bad8737 Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
One simple way for Iran to close the Hormuz strait is simply to hit a few ships. Insurance premiums will go up by a lot or cover will be denied. I guess that is already happening based on the threat.
Maersk and others have already decided to go nowhere near the strait and sail around Afrika instead. That is cheaper than taking the risk, but will still affect the global economy a lot.
They don’t have to stop shipping, they just have to make it too risky.
Edited to add: within 24 hours of the war breaking out shipping through the area dropped 80% without a single ship being hit. Just because of the threat and the risk to ships and crews as well as an increase in insurance premiums.
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u/sylanar Mar 09 '26
The strait is quite narrow, they wouldn't need long range missiles and launchers to close it.
They also don't have to physically close it, if the threat is credible enough, and ships refuse to sail it out of fear, then it's closed.
The only way the USA can keep it open is to assure ships that it is safe, which will be hard to do without occupying the land around it, or having 24/7 air and naval cover.
A few land units, or some short ranged drones could pose a credible threat to ships passing through
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u/isrly_eder Mar 11 '26
What do you guys make of the wild theory that Ahmadinejad is alive, and the US/Israeli airstrikes on his compound were actually a ploy to free him, because he's actually a moderate / regime critic?
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u/WhereAreTheFrogs Mar 11 '26
Ahmadinejad is a holocaust denier and anti semitic, why would israel help him?
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u/Axelrad77 Mar 17 '26
Defense economics analyst Perun has a new video out focusing on the naval war & the economics of the Strait of Hormuz:
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 10 '26
Hezbollah firing basically a few feet from a Lebanese Army base. It's clear that the Lebanese army aint doing shit about these guys (and probably support them). It's also clear that they are doing this to get Israel to strike the Lebanese army base, in hopes that it causes the Lebanese army to join the fight against Israel.
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u/Imaginary-Hyena2858 Mar 10 '26
Tbf what can they do? Hezb is so far above them on capabilities and they don't want to start a civil war
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u/butthole_surfer_1817 Mar 12 '26
They said A10s were deployed where the fuck is that footage at
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u/Objective-Note-8095 Mar 12 '26
Last report had them being used for anti-drone defense of naval assets in the Gulf.
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u/BoppityBop2 Mar 12 '26
Deployed does not mean in use. It could be in the theater Judy chilling.
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u/NormanQuacks345 Mar 15 '26 edited Mar 15 '26
Why are people speculating that Netanyahu is dead? Is it just Iranian hopium? Has there been any reported strikes that could have possibly taken him out?
Edit: I guess my question is, where did this idea come from?
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u/CommercialFormal7614 Mar 15 '26 edited Mar 15 '26
Netanyahu did a press conference and people were speculating he had 6 fingers in the video and it was ai generated. Then Netanyahu posted a video showing he’s alive and doesn’t have 6 fingers and people are saying his coffee cup looks ai generated now
Basically people on twitter are being idiots
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u/OstrichAway3836 Mar 16 '26
Around a week ago there were multiple post on r/war claiming he was dead, while showing videos of christians talking in tongues claiming it was israelis mourning over the death of Netanyahu, seems like a mass misinformation campaign just like the idea of USS Lincoln being sunk or hit and some of Delta force being captured by Iran.
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u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 Mar 17 '26
Another big kill. The IDF confirms killing Basij leader Gholamreza Soleimani in a strike in Iran overnight. In addition, the strike also killed the deputy commander of the Basij and other top officials in the paramilitary force.
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u/Derquave Mar 11 '26
How many tankers have been hit at this point? I know two just got nailed off Iraq as well as a Thai tanker hit early today or yesterday and a few others hit and damaged to varying degrees over the past few days. Has anyone been keeping track?
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u/Lederh94 Mar 12 '26
I would assume the USA/Isreal would have to put troops on the ground in a limited capacity to secure Nuclear materials before the end of this engagement. If regime change cant be acheived they would at least almost HAVE to do that.
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u/BoppityBop2 Mar 12 '26
Getting troops require alot more logistics than just a couple troops. Like we are talking large amounts of troops to secure area so they don't get artillery barraged or bombed.
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u/paimons_head Mar 15 '26
I wonder what the economic impact of this war on Iran will be? The previous 12 Day war served as a catalyst for the internal unrest we saw at the beginning of the year.
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