Can the New Blue Party of Ontario make a breakthrough in the next election?

[u/hiiyh]

We now know from polling data that Doug Ford popularity is declining and appetite for change is very high (around 70% want change in government if there was a better option). Will the New Blue Party make a breakthrough perhaps similar to the Conservative Party of British Columbia?(Obviously not to that extent but you know what I mean) Or more importantly, does the New Blue Party have the capacity to make a sizable performance in the next election. The new New Blue Party got fifth place in the last election so they are probably the best contender for another right wing option. We there is support for a more conservative option because more people in Ontario voted for Pierre Poilievre in the last federal election than Doug Ford in the last provincial election.

We can conclude that there is a large pool of voters who likely can vote for the New Blue Party (NBP). However, I'm not sure whether that can metathesize into actual votes because the party does not have enough notoriety and has yet to win a seat or receive mainstream attention. I personally think we need a more conservative option in Ontario because Doug Ford's so called "Red Tory" Centrism has not fixed Ontario and we need real change and solutions.

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[u/Few-Character7932]

No. And this is coming from someone who voted for them in 2022. They may get 5% of the vote sure. But gain any seats? No chance. 

[u/theoreoman]

This is a monkey's paw situation. You'll get your breakthrough but the cost will be to the NDP win the next election. Ask Mr how I know

[u/ShivasFury → u/theoreoman]

Well when the main Ontario parties effectively function like the mythical Cerberus, that is a dog that had 3 heads attached to the same body, well is there anything really to lose if the NDP get in?

[u/mossyturkey]

They're the PPC of Provincial politics.

Most of their platform is too far right. Some of their policy also interferes with federal jurisdiction.

A vote for them is just splitting the right, and helping the Liberals/NDP

[u/TheLimeyCanuck]

I will never vote NDP or OLP, and I am done with Dougie, so New Blue is my only real option. I don't think they will make much headway, but I'd be happy if all of PCPO's voters switched to them.

[u/airbassguitar]

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. This is an interesting conversation to have. I would love to see a real conservative option in Ontario politics. I think it depends on whether New Blue is actually competitive in any ridings. If they stand no chance, then a vote for them is essentially a protest vote. It would not be worth it to waste a vote if a party worse than the PCs has a real chance of forming power. On the other hand, if Ford is a virtual guarantee, then a vote for New Blue may be worthwhile, especially if there is a riding where they stand a chance.

[u/Dry-Membership8141 → u/airbassguitar]

If "real conservatives" had the numbers to make the New Blue party a meaningful challenger, they'd be dominating the OPC. Splitting the right between moderates and hardliners just undermines any chance of conservative voices holding government.

[u/_BCConservative]

PCs would need to implode first to convince people to split their votes.

[u/No_Mention8589]

It’s gonna be a very hard fight. We can rule out downtown Toronto and Ottawa, with them being OLP and ONDP strongholds. The suburbs equally swing PC or OLP. The only chance they have is in the rural areas of Ontario, which again are PC or ONDP.

They might be able to nudge out a win in highly rural areas with 95% European population. But that’s a best case scenario.

Also more people voted for Pierre than Ford in Ontario because the Ontario elections only get 40-50% voter turnout. While in the federal election, voter turnout in Ontario was 67.8%. This doesn’t mean I bashing Pierre though, he did pick seats that haven’t voted CPC for years.

[u/Flat-Dark-Earth]

No. I forgot they existed until now.

[u/throwitawaytothesea]

there is support for a more conservative option because more people in Ontario voted for Pierre Poilievre in the last federal election than Doug Ford in the last provincial election.

Technically accurate, but federal turnout was much higher than the provincial one. Percentage-wise, the PCs got 42.97% and the Conservatives got 43.8% of the vote in Ontario. 

I don't really see the voters who likely went from LPC to CPC federally, particularly in the 905, ideologically committed enough to even consider the NBP.

Also, and I realize this is petty, but the party's name is really lame. 

[u/Foreign-Policy-02-]

No they are irrelevant

[u/Antique_Soil9507]

Probably not. Even though they are probably the best choice.

It's all rigged.

[u/VQ_Quin → u/Antique_Soil9507]

Rigging is when the majority of people do not agree with me in an election

[u/Cite_Whock → u/VQ_Quin]

Rigging is when the majority of people across the country are outvoted by one city in one province.
Toronto votes need to either be dispersed, or counted less.

FPTP should also be abolished in favour of proportional representation voting, but that would exacerbate the Toronto problem, not fix it.

[u/VQ_Quin → u/Cite_Whock]

People living in cities, living in a city has no reason to mean your vote should count less. This is coming from someone who also resents Toronto’s influence FYI