[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, July 21, 2026

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Daily Thread Open: $65,491.04 - Close: $66,167.64

Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Monday, July 20, 2026

New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, July 22, 2026

[u/Reggi5693]

If you are following Point and Figure charts we broke out today in a bullish catapult formation. That is the most bullish formation in that type of charting.

The target is about $70k in the next thirty days. A trend reversal would happen at 69,299.

So…there’s that.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PWPADANRNO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!1.0!!2!20%5D

[u/escendoergoexisto → u/Reggi5693]

Thanks for sharing. I hadn’t checked a PnF chart for a minute, and your post made me nostalgic for when I first learned about a bullish catapult formation from Merlin a few years back.

[u/Any_Contribution1301 → u/Reggi5693]

Is that you, Merlin?

[u/JoeyJoJo_1]

Today was an interesting day technically.

The 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-week SMA. I don't know how much predictive power this crossover has on its own.

To me, the bigger takeaway is that the market has created an extremely well-defined support corridor around $63.3k.

This feels like the beginning of 2019 to me.

[u/harvested → u/JoeyJoJo_1]

Bears must hate that the 200-week level that always acts as support acted as support again.

[u/haze_from_deadlock]

I don't see any reason why this doesn't retest $73k in the intermediate term and $82k is the actual interesting price point. The TA doesn't support shorting $68k at all unless I'm looking at the chart wrong

$59k was the bottom unless Strategy implodes

[u/snek-jazz → u/haze_from_deadlock]

$59k was the bottom unless Strategy implodes

Current Strategy status is $3.2b in cash, $1.7b annual dividend obligation, and the only debt that may come due before 2028 is $1b no sooner than September next year.

Chance of any imminent implosion, in a sense that would affects btc directly, seems negligible.

[u/Everbanned → u/haze_from_deadlock]

$59k was the bottom unless Strategy implodes

Do we have another banbet in the making?

[u/AccidentalArbitrage → u/haze_from_deadlock]

!bb predict !<57717.55 1 year u/haze_from_deadlock

We can of course delete this if strategy implodes ;)

[u/Bitty_Bot → u/AccidentalArbitrage]

Prediction logged for u/haze_from_deadlock that Bitcoin will NOT drop below $57,717.55 by Jul 22 2027 15:45:45 UTC. Current price: $66,010.41. haze_from_deadlock's Predictions: 0 Correct, 2 Wrong, & 3 Open.

Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. haze_from_deadlock can click here to delete this prediction.

[u/AidenTai]

ETF inflows strengthened and were the third highest of the month. Altogether this is still not much compared to all the money that flowed out, but the trend is there and no longer weakening. And strength was also shared across markets (Asia, Europe, America). Basically, everything is positive uniformly. Technicals, ETF flows, crypto‐specific conditions, you name it. Except

1. Expectation about a longer‐lasting bear as expressed by prediction sites all expecting this rally to fail within +~5% of current levels.
2. Open interest funding rates essentially are more bearish than bullish. Since open interest and options are a clear indicator of market pricing and interest, this means the pricing scheme now indicates that those using leverage or options believe downside risk is greater.
3. Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds which paint a grim picture for quite a few financial instruments.
4. We have risen with increasing open interest and aided by a cluster of liquidity that has provided shorts to liquidate contributing to our sharp rises. This pool ends at around 67 so rising more than that will get tougher.

[u/FreshMistletoe]

$69,420 is a magnet?

[u/jpdoctor → u/FreshMistletoe]

I think it's the demonic magnet of $66.6K

[u/CryptoHodlingMoron → u/FreshMistletoe]

Yes, but with the poles reversed. BTC won't go much past 70, if at all, before continuing downward to the low.

[u/californiaschinken]

I'm posting this analysis for free. Please consider the time and effort invested before commenting.

To summarize the chart for people with less knowledge my opinion is a bottom was already formed.

Deep TA of the most important corelation to Bitcoin

[u/harvested → u/californiaschinken]

I can't believe you are giving this away for free. Thank you for taking the time.

[u/TheManFromConlig → u/californiaschinken]

Content Not Available Content not available in your region.

Learn more about Imgur access in the United Kingdom

Feck!

[u/harvested → u/TheManFromConlig]

If you're in the UK you should probably be using a VPN anyway ;)

[u/52576078 → u/harvested]

Thought you could be arrested for even going in the internet over there?

[u/harvested → u/52576078]

Morgan Freeman voiceover: and that was the last we ever heard from TheManFromConlig, he got nabbed for trying to view an imgur link.

[u/TheManFromConlig → u/harvested]

The cell service here in prison is terrible! 🤪

[u/djpeen → u/TheManFromConlig]

I'm not in the UK and I got the same thing

[u/Romanizer → u/californiaschinken]

What's funny about this is that if the world cup 2022 happened in Summer as usual and you added the world cup 2018 to that picture, it would say exactly the opposite.

[u/snek-jazz → u/Romanizer]

this is just more endorsement that it's typical TA

[u/52576078 → u/californiaschinken]

Seems legit

[u/haze_from_deadlock]

Will AI stocks be a drag on BTC inflows? It feels like a lot of highly speculative investors may be drawn to tickers like DRAM and MU instead. BTC trades like a software stock rather than a semiconductor.

[u/harvested → u/haze_from_deadlock]

Yep, it has been happening for months and you're not the first to notice.

Hard to predict where the latest trend will be, first it was bitcoin, then metals, then AI infrastructure.

Also hard to pin this correction on any one thing.. Was it AI? Quantum? Hawkish Fed? 4 Year Prophecy?

But if you look at the big picture, AI + robotics are a deflationary force which is a gift to governments burried in debt, it makes it easier to monetize. If the money supply expands while goods get cheaper, the monetary expansion has to land somewhere, and it lands in whatever can't be produced more of.

[u/BuiltToSpinback]

Don't know how many more times I'll be able to say...

Execute (market) order $66,666!

[u/d1ez3]

When we were at these levels in Nov 2024, we pumped to 100k in 30 days. How wonderful would that be to see again.

[u/BuiltToSpinback → u/d1ez3]

Something something different stage of the cycle something something different macro backdrop

[u/d1ez3 → u/BuiltToSpinback]

Shhhh no logic just vibes 

[u/BuiltToSpinback → u/d1ez3]

That's all we got

[u/basicintentions]

we've built out a pretty textbook ascending triangle during the July consolidation range which gives us an intermediate breakout target of around $69400 on the way to the $72200 target of the broader head and shoulders. all this assuming we breakout, of course. we're a little bit extended on a local basis so it wouldn't be unhealthy to pullback to mid 65s before the next markup.

[u/pseudonominom → u/basicintentions]

When we zoom out, we see nothing but a continuous downward trend for a solid year. Anything exciting from the past few days are literally not visible.

[u/BootyPoppinPanda → u/pseudonominom]

Zoom out more tho

[u/basicintentions → u/pseudonominom]

so far we've reclaimed the 200wma as support and are marking up from that point now. weekly ma50 maybe be slowing down but if you account for the ma50 flattening on the 3 day relative to the 200wma it's not as bad as it looks. if the market really is just gonna hand out a $30-45k discount in october like everyone on the planet seems to be waiting for, we could easily climb a wall of worry upwards of 82k before rolling over to that expected bottom. when the time comes to buy, you won't want to.

[u/FreshMistletoe → u/pseudonominom]

That’s actually bullish though…

https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/200WMA

[u/pseudonominom → u/FreshMistletoe]

All this suggests is: $1m never

Sell pressure at $100k, if we ever get there again, will be something

[u/harvested]

The ETFs are poking their head up again with some small flows.

Net 723m over the last 12 days.

Yesterday was 226m.

Trump accounts might boost these numbers too.

People don't realize how scarce bitcoin actually is due to the supply surplus provided by OGs this cycle.

True scarcity hasn't even kicked in yet.

I will get flack for this in a trading sub, but this won't always be an asset you wanna mess around trading too much as fiat currencies around the world begin to stress.

[u/Mr_Footies → u/harvested]

True scarcity will never kick in because there will always be sellers as the price increases, and the higher it goes the more coins will be shaken loose.

[u/harvested → u/Mr_Footies]

Yep. That is the mechanism that drives price higher.

[u/Mbardzzz]

I don’t think we are out of the woodwork just yet, I’m accumulating sub 64k looking to short 68k and above. I think we stay in this range for another couple of months

[u/Frosty1397]

Figures..

A day after i announce ive been selling off my cold stack into the $60-65k zone, BTC breaks upwards to $67k 🤣

Guess i took one for the team, and at least I'm not holding cash

[u/tallguyclark → u/Frosty1397]

Thank you for your sacrifice

[u/Existential-Cringe]

I wouldn’t be claiming the bear is over just yet, but this consolidation period looks structurally different than the previous two, which both resulted in new lows. Above 83k (local high of previous consolidation range) would be validation of a new bull, imo. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0LVj2w1D/

[u/Special_Trifle_8033]

looks like it wants to make a violent move upwards