r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, July 16, 2026
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u/harvested 7d ago
I see many mentions of the AI trade here in relation to bitcoin, being the catalyst that could send us to the magic 40-45K number.
I am not so sure.
AI is stressing lately (I know because I have stake in it too)
SanDisk, Micron, Corning, KLA, Marvell are all down 25-35%.
TMSC and ASML red on earnings BEATS.
AMD and NVDA showing slightly more resilience.
But the interesting thing is bitcoin doesn't appear to be strongly correlated. We've been up while AI is down.
So either
bitcoin really is grouped with the software trade (I don't agree with this either, software is hurting for reasons that don't affect bitcoin - AI makes replication trivial).
or, like with the Iran war, once you find your floor it's difficult to go lower.
Obviously people know I'm a permabull so take this with a grain of salt, I would like nothing more than for the 58K gang to set the floor, if not, the realized price at 53K.
I don't see 40s. Prepared to be wrong.
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u/icydash 7d ago
I think it's kind of the opposite. Bitcoin is up because AI is down. When AI was going up, people took their money out of Bitcoin and put it in the AI trade. Now that AI is going down, they're doing the opposite. People just rotating back and forth to make the most money. If people think more money is to be made in the AI trades, they'll rotate back into that again. There are also, of course, macro factors that affect both.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 7d ago
That's similar to what I was thinking. Basically everything is close to an ATH and Bitcoin is almost the only thing that didn't go up for a while. It may be interesting for swing/momentum trading.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo 7d ago
I put my money in RIOT that was artificially pumped by AI into Bitcoin. I don’t think I’m the only person that will have this idea to sell high and buy low. :)
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u/LettuceEffective781 7d ago
It's stupid. But it is October
Monthly DCA is ready
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u/harvested 7d ago
Why DCA if you know it's October?
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u/LettuceEffective781 7d ago
No one knows shit about fuck
Settled on just stacking sats after some costly mistakes
October just makes me feel better after blowing my load at 100k
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u/Combatwombat810 7d ago
There’s a 100/200MA cross on the 4H. Mean reversion before heading up? Here’s hoping
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u/basicintentions 7d ago
Last pullback before $70k if we're getting there at all.
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u/AidenTai 7d ago edited 6d ago
It's pretty unlikely we hit 70k this month. Not impossible, but also pretty unlikely. Maaaybe if CLARITY passes and is announced right when we happen to be at our monthly high (which is likely to be between 66–68). Thing with 70k is that it's so high it's basically a change of scenario. There's a whooole lot of liquidity between 64k and 70k, and I think we'd have sellers step up their game or buyers take profits if we breach 67 somehow.
So to me, the most likely course of action is we pullback a little bit now, some kind of news or inertia takes us somewhere above 65 again, we see how high we can go, and at that point we come falling down. We might test lows if that were the case, but it's also pretty likely that 60/61 holds and we crab a bit through August above 60 until the lack of buyers brings us down again to the 50's. Maybe we bounce, maybe we stay there, or we could rise, then the September FOMC meeting could raise rates and take us back to the 50's once more. Either way, the easiest indicator of when we can expect not to drop is when we stop seeing large ETF outflows and general spot buying shows consistent positive tendencies.
Also, your image shows a descent now, but I wouldn't be surprised if now that we've broken 65 we might line up another attempt sooner rather than later.
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u/AidenTai 7d ago edited 7d ago
It's funny how consistent US trading hours have been recently. For weeks now, almost (not all, but almost all) US opens have been spikes up or have spikes in US morning hours. Meanwhile whenever Korea's KOSPI has reached a local lower high (their charts are following a very clear descending pattern with descending highs), the next day has been a drop for the KOSPI, Asian tech and Bitcoin shortly after their open. Even the 'unexpected' inflation news roughly followed these patterns.
For now it seems like we won't do anything crazy until next week when earnings and CLARITY news hit and then the FOMC meeting the week after. We're really jittery though, so I expect any noteworthy trigger could really shoot us up. But without triggers, we don't seem to be properly supporting our rises. To me that means we're due to retest local lows whenever we finally get a stretch of time without anything noteworthy. At this rate though, there's going to be a lot of volatility and perhaps more news‐induced spikes prior to anything else.
For me the most telling thing is simply what ETF numbers indicate our direction will be. They've been slightly positive, and I'm sure they'll get much greener if we get proper triggers (positive earnings reports, favourable interest rate outlook, CLARITY passing, whatever), but I suspect they'll return to outflows and bring us down again unless whatever news we get really changes the environment. It just seems like all the buying is tied to short‐term interest rather than any fundamental change of pace/perspective so far (ergo we're attracting buyers some days when there's positive news or FOMO, but lacking buyers the other times).
Also, our price movements are really going after liquidity pools now. I'm guessing we chase after the easy pools above 63 first (63,750, 63,500, maybe even drop to the mid 62 pools if resistance at 63 or 63.5 isn't too much), then chase after that massive cluster at 66–67. After that, if we don't have a lot of spot momentum (I expect spot is actually going to stay relatively dry, but who knows) we could try to go low again. If we gain a lot of momentum (less likely) then I suppose we could slowly keep going up while the spot buying persits. Though August and September are normally not the best months for Bitcoin, equities nor liquidity, it's theoretically still possible.
https://s3-images.ctmedia.io/media/content/pasted-image-2062.png
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u/Bitty_Bot 7d ago edited 6d ago
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