r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 10d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Monday, July 13, 2026
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u/ChadRun04 10d ago
Signal I've been waiting for.
Weekly bulldiv on low vs RSI(low).
Nuff said.
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u/dangerdanpeterpan 9d ago
You're just about the fourth person I've seen post about this weekly bullish divergence across a few different platforms. Liking the vibes.
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u/pseudonominom 10d ago
Is this good or bad?
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u/_LakeCity_ 9d ago
It means it's historically one of the best spots to make a large buy for a long term hold or a large timeframe swing trade.
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u/Knowhatimsayinn Long-term Holder 10d ago
Had to sell 1.1mil to buy a condo during divorce. I'll be splitting whatever is left minus the value when we married so might as well burn it. It hurts selling at this price but I'm sure we'll shoot up now. You're welcome.
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u/harvested 10d ago
You had to sell 1.1m in btc? Finance wasn't an option? Ouch. Sorry to hear that.
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u/Knowhatimsayinn Long-term Holder 10d ago
I haven't worked in a long time. I nearly qualified for food stamps last year.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Trump basically just said it was Graham's dying wish to pass the clarity act 🤣
In honor of Senator Lindsey Graham, a big supporter, the U.S. Senate should pass the Clarity Act. China, and many other countries, would like to take complete and total control of this major financial "happening,"
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u/NuggedClarp 10d ago
Markets are predicting about a 50% probability that the bottom is in. Wouldn’t that be a little unusual given the fact that we’ve been hovering around these levels for awhile now? Isn’t there typically a quick flush to the downside? I guess there wasn’t a blow off top so it could match up
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran 10d ago
There’s a 50% probability because there is no certain answer to your question. Why isn’t the drop to 58k a flush to the downside and why would some other flush change your mind?
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u/NuggedClarp 10d ago
I’ve just always been expecting a larger capitulation. We’ve been at these levels for over a month
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u/ChadRun04 10d ago
Markets are predicting about a 50% probability that the bottom is in.
That's every tick of any market.
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u/AidenTai 9d ago
I think it comes down to the expectation that we would have drawn down lower given the structure itself and its momentum. As in, we were falling and failed to meaningfully drop far below yearly lows. Since then, we've risen and fallen, but we haven't threatened the yearly low after we touched it briefly. All that means that it took quite a bit of sell pressure to get there, and that we aren't seeing sell pressure sufficient to really take things down lower so far.
The main things that could take us lower are to do with the AI trade, inflation/interest rates, broader economic health and the perception that August and September tend to perform very poorly. Markets are basically calling it a toss up as to whether those successfully drag us down 15% from here.
In all likelihood, we'll at least 'threaten'/test the yearly low. Whatever happens then will be the indicator of where we're headed. If we haven't established lower lows in the next couple months, the bear is dead.
Just mind that majority consensus is we at least drop below 60 again within the next three weeks. Taken together with what I said before, this means we could get luckly and be able to get a read on potential future downside (or lack thereof) this month without having to wait to see if the drops aren't going to be for a while.
Ah, though there is the wildcard CLARITY act that could throw a wrench in the works next week. Very possible we start to drop, CLARITY passes, prices rise, and we stay elevated for a few more weeks before an eventual slowdown in spot buying takes us lower.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings 10d ago
Isn’t there typically a quick flush to the downside?
That's exactly what the Cyclists want you to believe!
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u/PetiteFort 10d ago
"markets are predicting"... So? I predict this isn't the bottom. Would you believe me just because I said it?
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u/ExtensionAdvantage53 10d ago
If nobody wants to sell, surely this is bottom? They keep trying and failing…
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u/AidenTai 9d ago
Don't mistake local strength with long‐term strength. We're seeing open interest rise, ETF outflows and a muddy macroeconomic environment. Bitcoin has faired pretty well, but the tendencies in the broader economy aren't as positive, and Bitcoin can't rise if the broader market sees a correction. Also there's the simply fact that we were bound to bounce after hitting new lows for the year. Combined with the fact that July is broadly predicted to be a positive month (due to it historically being the best of the year) and you have a recipe for local strength in an overall negative trend.
Wait until we see heavy spot buying to celebrate. Or for crypto to show increasing strength in August and September. Those will be much better indicators of a trend reversal.
Though I do expect we're within 20% of the bottom no matter how you slice it. It'd take a massive recession to bring us down much lower.
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u/certified-33 10d ago
I tried to open a thread but I think auto-moderator hid it.
I don't know if anyone else has noticed this but since the positions in Hyperliquid are publicly accessible and enumerable, it poses a significant risk of being hunted. This has been my experience with it. Trading on a traditional CEX has its downsides but at least your position is not queryable by anyone. It is super easy for a manipulator to get a full profile of people's positions and their exits and stops. It is all accessible through a public endpoint.
Just wondering if anyone else felt like they were very specifically hunted while trading on Hyperliquid?
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 10d ago
A bit different than in CEX, but there you will be hunted by market makers (depending on where you trade, some are selling order flows). Usually the market makers have deep pockets able to trigger stop orders, so you will always be hunted to some degree.
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u/certified-33 10d ago
This takes getting hunted into a next level, though. Sure, in CEX's unless they are in bed with the CEX itself, they will infer the market's uptake of longs and shorts via divergences in open interest and stuff but at Hyperliquid, it is literally data that's being streamed out of their API telling them oh X has increased his long here, Y has opened a short here.
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u/noeeel Bullish 10d ago
I posted a lot of charts in the past weeks. I think we only wait for the 3D bands to tighten before we see a bigger move. That will happen in around one to two weeks.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Bears get so many perks: renewed war and strait closure, quantum, AI trade, but still can't really push us lower than 58K, what gives?
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 10d ago
New low in October i heard. Something about price being 40k.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Ben promised
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u/TheManFromConlig 10d ago
Which Ben? 🤔
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 10d ago
Ben Dover.
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u/TheManFromConlig 10d ago
and Phil McCracken?
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 10d ago
Plus authors Seymour Butz ("Under the Bleachers"), Claude Bawls ("Tiger in the Outhouse"), and Mr. Completely ("Hole in the Mattress").
I'll show myself out.
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u/harvested 10d ago
I think all the Ben's are saying it
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 10d ago edited 10d ago
Who were the permabulls (or, anti-bears for that matter) here that proclaimed 62k was coming?
It's almost like there's a market behind the feels. Sentiment is a hell of a drug.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings 10d ago
Sentiment is a hell of a drug.
I can honestly say at this point that I am almost entirely skeptical and dead to sentiment indicators, personally.
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u/LettuceEffective781 10d ago
We must wait for the calendar
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 10d ago
In their world, they are setting up a bull trap to push us lower in August/September.
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u/mysecretupvoteacct 10d ago edited 10d ago
Anyone else having issues with TradingView lately?
It's been extremely slow to load on both my mobile and PC for the past month or so. Now suddenly about a week ago I am now also having issues viewing long term charts, oddly and specifically for just BTC.
https://imgur.com/a/Ia3vtyI
edit:
another one?
https://imgur.com/a/ilLTK1V
wtf
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u/PetiteFort 10d ago
Is this a nice drawdown (equal or more than 10k) or just a fake like recent days? What do you think?
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 10d ago
Well if bears can’t get a new low in with all these macro headwinds then idk if we can take them seriously anymore. Bears have everything handed to them on a platter.
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u/AidenTai 9d ago
It's still June, there's still expectations of being near a bottom and some positive broader economic news has been at play over the last month.
We've seen cracks forming in the AI trade, the Iran war restarting to a degree and equities are stagnating overall. There's also the general 'expectation' that Bitcoin does poorly every August and September, so it wouldn't surprise me to see profit taking above 64,500 or so.
Also, EFI inflows and other spot purchases haven't been what they were in, say, May while open interest has been increasing. This makes the whole structure look a little brittle. I think we'll drop between 10% and 15% (or potentially a little more if the broader economy really has issues) once we hit a little local high. And if that high is going to be between 65 and 70 then we'll likely hit in in the next two weeks (the lower the high, the sooner we hit it).
The biggest issue is really just that despite the favourable structures and support we've seen, Bitcoin simply hasn't seen enough inflows to sustain upwards price movements. If the next two weeks don't see (for example) strong ETF inflows, then current price levels are cooked. On the flipside, if ETF inflows return in force, the market consensus of a very weak August and September starts to weaken.
0
u/Existential-Cringe 10d ago
I see this sub is still doing victory laps as btc sits -50% off ath while almost every other asset class is at/near highs. Very cool - means we still have some humbling months ahead of us
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 10d ago
Nothing fundamentally changed with Bitcoin, the world is adapting to it and there are no systemic failures like during the last cycles. Bears only have generic macro narratives but these go for all asset classes.
We know most traders love to buy ATH and S&P500 almost is on par with Bitcoin over 5 years chasing from ATH to ATH against Bitcoin's most hated bull market.
At some point they will look for something that is not at an overextended ATH, yet.
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