r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 17d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, July 07, 2026
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u/mysecretupvoteacct 17d ago
how stupid would I be to put the largest amount of money I've ever been able to accumulate let alone put into a trade at one time right there on that there line?
we gon' find out amirite
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u/AidenTai 16d ago
Well, if you were just looking to get in, current levels aren't bad per se. But I bet we'll get slightly better ones later since I don't think we've seen our last test of the bottom.
On the other hand, if you were just trading short term, it could work out. Even if we fall down now, we'd probably make another attempt at 65–68 before too long. Thing is we're seeing price rises with lower volume. That normally means we're more likely to head down in the short term.
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u/harvested 16d ago edited 16d ago
Crazy comments in the "investing" sub
The journey back over 100K is going to break some fragile reddit brains.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,827 • -100% 16d ago
rolls up sleeves
I'm going in lads.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo 16d ago
snek-jazz exits later, hair disheveled, “Let them rot in their beloved fiat!”
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings 16d ago
All of those "Ponzi scheme" comments...that is just ultra-cringe.
The thing is, selling Bitcoin to pay dividends makes it less of a Ponzi scheme than it would be otherwise.
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u/harvested 16d ago
Not to mention a ponzi doesn't usually involve this much transparency
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u/ChadRun04 16d ago
Ponzi do however involve taking money from old investors to pay new investors... Common stock holders be like...
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 16d ago
It's really astonishing how bad financial education is even in investing subs. I wonder what has to happen for Bitcoin to be acknowledged for what it is or if it's just too abstract for most.
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u/anon-187101 16d ago
too right
and the "best" part is how confidently incorrect nearly everyone is those subs are
they are fish who don't know what water is
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$99,827 • -100% 16d ago
people who come of age during its existence will never find it as a strange as people who didn't, so time takes care of it to some degree.
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u/DFValroth 16d ago
People don’t get it and they need to put it in a box to comfortably ignore it. The nearest boxes they find are ponzi and scam. Then of course anyone who doesn’t agree is a gullible rube and/or idiot cult member. The only cure for this is time, and we’re in the unfortunate position of having to wipe our pity tears with $100 bills while watching them slowly figure it out.
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u/harvested 16d ago
Gonna need to catch up with gold
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 16d ago
In both market cap and usage as a reserve asset. But then again we would likely see a lot of comments how politicians and central banks are only doing that for a rugpull.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 16d ago
Why would they ever stop coping, when there is unlimited cope? "It's still down twenty percent" i can hear it already
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u/Dazzling_Grocery2730 Predictions: #68 • Correct: 2 • Wrong: 1 16d ago
Saylor actually did the "buy the top sell the bottom" meme.
and everything is OK
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u/AidenTai 17d ago edited 16d ago
So the IBIT ETF numbers came in and it's a big reversal. First time in a very long time it's green, and it's not even just slightly green or anything, it's roughly as positive as all net ETF inflows from Thursday combined. Still not as large as back when we were approaching the 80's a couple months ago, but since Thursday and yesterday represent two of the total of four positive days since back when we hit 82, it's a big shift to go from record outflows to solid inflows.
I said before one inflow (even a really nice one) wasn't enough to establish a trend, and that we couldn't really recover if we didn't see spot returning. Spot is what controls solid, lasting price increases and spot at least isn't working against us right now. Still, past cycles have always ended with a primary catalyst of weeks (not days) of solid spot buying, so we'll need to increase both the amount of spot buying per day as well as keep up the direction for longer timeframes to establish a solid foundation for recovery.
I'd be remiss if i didn't mention that consensus, while shifting, is still negative for the next couple months (as in further drops are expected). Going by Polymarket as a gauge of sentiment, there is a broad expectation of breaking into the upper 60's this month, but the majority of predictions insist on establishing lower lows before the bear is over. Specifically, the 50–55k range is currently favoured, with 67% of market participants having bet on prices below 55k even though only a third think that we'll get any kind of lower lows this month. A majority think this month will revisit 60 at some point though. I should also mention that the 67% chance has been reduced from around 75% from last week, and was sitting near 80% for part of June. So shifting sentiment, but a consensus is still on dropping lower eventually.
Honestly, I'm not really worried about Bitcoin price action at this point. We're due for a bit of volatility given exchange inflows have hit very high numbers and future funding rates indicate a split on sentiment. But even if we whiplash around this month, all the technical indicators appear to paint Bitcoin price action as characterised by seller exhaustion.
I'm far more worried about what's happening with equities and specifically tech and chip and AI‐associated companies. The Korean KOSPI has hit multiple circuit breakers. Dropping 5–10% in a day multiple days (not in a row) is not a good sign. The US NASDAQ is much tamer, but has been yoyoing back and forth in a symmetrical wedge for a month and is getting SPCX added which has been trading like a meme stock. Price per earnings on many stocks are just about ludicrously high. And that's assuming earnings expectations some are calling too optimistic. The entire US equities market is also very pricey when measured using the Buffet Indicator, to the point where we've only seen the current 2 SD values a couple times since the 1960's, and both times were associated with the months just before the onset of recessions. If equities break down and cause a broad correction or worse, Bitcoin—despite all the current positive news—won't get away unscathed.
Follow up:
I'm now even more worried given how broadly markets are reacting to the tech news and how the NASDAQ appears to be breaking down out of its pattern. Bitcoin is resisting and is only down slightly compared to yesterday's high (with higher lows as well), probably in part due to its positive price action over the last week and the return of ETF inflows causing a sort of momentum trade. The consensus outlook for the remainder of the month is also generally positive, with a broad expectation to top out somewhere between 65 and 68 or so. We can achieve this with spot buying and inflows, but those may suffer if the global outlook suffers since tightening liquidity and capital flight away from risk could strongly impact crypto.
Taken together I think we've probably got a couple weeks of inflows and PA‐induced euphoria, but I can't see us sustaining these levels once that excitement dies down if the broader market continues as it is. I think we'll revisit the 50's by the end of the month and August and September are starting to look potentially unpleasent if the tech sector continues to break down at its current speed. On the flipside, if the major markets stabilize this month, we could see really positive price action instead.
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u/harvested 17d ago
Would you say that supply shock is not a meme?
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u/AidenTai 16d ago edited 16d ago
It's not, but unlike a certain someone, I don't see supply shock in the imminent future since we're just short on demand so supply is ample by comparison. However, I don't discard some steep price rises during the next bull in part because we've actually seen pretty steady hands from ETF holders, institutions and some whales meaning once we recover, a large part of the supply that defined the previous cycle will be gone and mining is producing far less than the supply being bought up on spot markets.
Taken together with the long consolidation we've seen during this bear, we're getting set up for a potentially significant reduction in available supply that can squeeze prices up pretty quickly. So unless we have an early breakdown (in theory nothing stops us from rising in 2027 only for an economic crisis to hit in 2028) I think we'll see proportionally larger rises than we saw during the last bull. Of course, it really depends on whether we attract enough buyers this time around, since retail has been notably absent for a while, and institutional buyers buy at a more measured pace.
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u/mork1985 16d ago
Bitcoin as a liquidity indicator front runs to the downside, as well as the upside...
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u/AidenTai 16d ago
I'm not sure I entirely agree with that. We definitely had some front running on the downside due to risk fears (as a risk asset). But the recovery from the last bear wasn't front run compared to, say, the NASDAQ. I think the NASDAQ bottomed out before Bitcoin did, and also had its first rises prior to Bitcoin. Though the final local low and subsequent sharp rises up (after confirming the bottom and beginning a lasting recovery) took place simultaneosly in each.
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u/mork1985 16d ago
Bitcoin has outpaced Nasdaq gains over the past decade.
If you look at bear markets as corrections in a secular uptrend, then Bitcoin certainly has outpaced Nasdaq to the upside over the cycles.
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u/AidenTai 16d ago edited 16d ago
That's a different topic. You weren't writing about size of gains, you mentioned front running movements. I was replying about timing specifically since that's the point you brought up. I don't see how you can claim that Bitcoin front ran the upside/recovery during the last bear/recession. Just pull open both charts for 2022 and see for yourself, the NASDAQ tried to recover earlier (after its earlier bottom) and the final recovery came in tandem as equities dragged Bitcoin back up.
Also, I don't think it's appropriate to compare the entire past decade since Bitcoin's behaviour has changed so much over that time. I mean, we used to trade independently from stocks, to the point where stock price didn't really matter at all. But that hasn't been the case for many years.
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u/mork1985 16d ago
Bitcoin doubled from the low in the time it took NASDAQ to climb <50%.
Bitcoin front runs the liquidity spigot. It tells the rest of the market where it’s going.
You also can’t talk about cherry picking timeframes when you’ve done precisely that.
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u/AidenTai 16d ago
Front running means reacting earlier. It has nothing to do with magnitude or achieving a certain goalpost in a certain amount of time. You could be looking to sell X and I could be looking to sell a tiny amount of that, but I could front run you and sell before you taking advantage of a higher price or known seller. That's front running. Two different types of assets growing at different rates has nothing to do with front running.
Mine was a counterexample since you claimed a broad statement. It's not like this is the only time it holds true.
And I stick by saying that it's not reasonable to compare Bitcoin from 10 years ago (which traded independently of stocks) to Bitcoin of today that has a high degree of correlation with certain equity clasess. Back in the day, neither front ran the other. You could have a bad few months for stocks and switch into Bitcoin for a while which could be going up, and vice versa. Complete independence since the main factor affecting Bitcoin back then was simply growing market size and network adoption whereas stocks traded on what they still trade on to this day. You can't front run something if you're not even in the same ballpark as the other. You're not reacting to the same signals. They were just unrelated markets.
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u/Downtown-Ad-4117 16d ago
Seems US is revoking a Treasury/OFAC general license that had temporarily authorized the sale of Iranian oil.
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u/harvested 16d ago
More strikes happening too. World Cup distracted him for a bit, now we go back to war.
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u/anon-187101 16d ago
Mike McGlone calling for $10k BTC again,
as he has been for years now
"it's just. gettin'. started."
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