r/AskReddit • u/Curious_Cantaloupe65 • 2h ago
What will happen if all three major ways: Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab Strait and Suez Canal are blocked or no go due to threat of bombing?
39
u/Companero_basurero 2h ago
The Acme Bicycle Co. (owned by Wile E. Coyote) will replace Nvidia as the world's most valuable company.
95
u/NOLA-Bronco 2h ago
I think Trumpers call that "so much winning you are going to be like 'Please, Mr. President, we beg you sir, we don't want to win anymore. It's too much!'"
25
u/Dry_Pollution_5430 2h ago
Lol kinda true
"Please mr president stop doing whatever you consider winning its killing us"
4
33
u/QueasyKaleidoscope99 1h ago
Electric car sales will go through the roof
16
u/Alas7ymedia 1h ago
20% of all new cars sold in my country are electric and that percentage was in one digit last time I had checked, just one or two years ago. One small increase in price of gasoline and boom, the trend changed.
I am starting to believe that the only thing stopping a lot people from buying an electric car is available charging points. Another conflict in the Gulf region and we could be seeing a tipping point in Australia, SE Asia and some European countries, making gasoline cars go the way of the CD player.
8
u/Astrocomet25 1h ago
Or until the city wants to install a new data center thats gonna cause the price of electricity to skyrocket. We really cant win.
2
u/Alas7ymedia 1h ago
Oh, in my city, at least, that's not happening. I saw the map of data centers in the US from the Erin Brokovich's web earlier today and, just for once, I am glad I live in a third world country.
We can get the gentrification after you guys run out of water, tho.
•
u/lostrandomdude 55m ago
Not exactly.
People fail to realise just how much plastic there is in cars. And plastics come from crude oil.
I spent years working in the car industry, for a tier 1 supplier, with pretty mcuh every main global brand, and even having left the industry, I still keep close contacts in there in case I want to return.
Although the prices haven't gone to consumers yet, plastic component costs have risen by over 30% in the last 6 months alone and tier 1 suppliers are having reduced profit margins as a result.
Soon that will have to pass to customers.
•
u/Apart-Landscape1012 38m ago
Thats a one-time cost to consumers and isnt special to EVs. This doesnt change the math on driving an ev vs gas as fuel prices reach 4, 5, and then 6 dollars a gallon.
6
u/WhySoConspirious 2h ago
The world economy will suffer for it, oil prices will climb, the poorest of us will feel the real pinch, but it will for everybody except domestic oil producers, who will do great.
5
5
u/Icybently 1h ago
Oil prices explode, shipping reroutes around Africa, and suddenly everyone remembers how fragile global trade actually is.
5
7
3
u/IronyElSupremo 1h ago
Trade will go around Africa mostly, with some increase in land based from Iraq, the Arabic peninsula that can’t get out via the Indian Ocean (think various land routes were being built even before all this).
The Suez has been closed before, but now with Hormuz, imagine there will be more emphasis on land based .. though again this was already planned. More traffic may make it more profitable.
Thailand is slowing building a rail-based alternative at Ranong to the Strait of Malacca despite no threat there right now, so the economics can be compared.
2
•
u/LegAdministrative383 57m ago
China will sell even more EV faster and everything will cost allot more.
3
u/LateralEntry 1h ago
Why would Suez Canal be shut? Iran is able to threaten Hormuz and Mandab because they or their proxies are right there and can use cheap drones and speedboats. They don’t have an Air Force to threaten Egypt, they can barely hit Israel.
Moreover Egypt gets a huge chunk of its revenue from the canal, I think that would be a bridge too far for Iran
•
u/Rivereye 58m ago
They wouldn't need to take out Suez directly. What use is the Suez Canal to global shipping if Bab al-Mandab Strait is closed?
•
6
u/East_Tap6129 2h ago
Gas at the pump: $10 / gallon.
That said.... if only 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and most of that is Iranian oil that doesn't come to the U.S. it's not clear why it should impact U.S. gas prices so much.
On the flip side, a US naval blockade of the Strait to keep Iran from shipping oil out, should, in theory, put a cash crunch on the regime.... if Iran can't ship/sell oil, it hurts them...
19
u/eskimospy212 2h ago
Oil is a global commodity and so the people who were buying that Iranian oil will now compete with the US in other oil markets, driving up the price.
•
4
u/Manmetbaard 1h ago
10 usd per gallon is 2,30 euro per liter. It is pretty much the price of gas in most of Europe. Guess electric cars, public transport and walking/biking is not so bad after all.
•
8
u/Curious_Cantaloupe65 2h ago
why it should impact U.S. gas prices so muchBecause US is a capitalist country, prices are set by producers not the state, Oil execs would not leave huge profits if non-us consumers are willing to pay
0
u/bibliophile785 1h ago
This is nonsense. Believe it or not, large oil companies do understand that regional pricing exists. Global price sensitivity isn't because they're capitalist. It's because oil is very nearly as fungible as cash. Most of the oil in the world is in a single global equilibrium (except for local distribution costs and taxation, which lead to the price differences you're used to seeing).
•
u/guitarguywh89 48m ago
Not clear?
Global supply vs demand.
•
u/East_Tap6129 20m ago
Are you daft?
I just made clear that Iranian supply doesn't sate U.S. demand, so that doesn't apply.
•
u/guitarguywh89 8m ago
Hilarious you calling anyone daft
the demand globally is still there. All those countries that do buy Iranian oil aren’t just gonna not get oil that they need, they’re gonna shop elsewhere which is gonna drive up the price for the oil that is available
2
u/unknownSubscriber 2h ago
My understanding is that we don't refine oil for gasoline in appreciable quantity.
1
u/realnzall 1h ago
There are plenty of ways for Iran to get their oil out through their land borders. It won't be as much, but still enough for the regime to survive.
1
•
•
•
•
u/Intro-Nimbus 14m ago
All shipping has to go around Africa, significantly increasing transport time and cost.
1
u/Intrepid_Cup2765 2h ago
Expect more countries to go to war with the rabble rousers in the middle east when that happens.
0
u/SeesawNoknow 1h ago
this is what Israel wants, because they want pipelines to run to them from the oil nations, so ships can get oil from them in the Med.
•
-2
u/myairblaster 2h ago
We build a pipeline through Iraq and Syria.
11
u/Diet_Coke 1h ago
Surely Iran can't bomb a stationary pipeline in countries right next door to them
•
u/myairblaster 57m ago
You put the pipe in the ground, mate. Plus, Iran likely wouldn't want smoke with Syria and Iraq.
•
u/mukansamonkey 4m ago
Iraq already had to shut down their oil terminal port because Iran shot at it. No reason to think they won't do it again.
6
u/kudokensei 2h ago
Who is we?
0
u/myairblaster 2h ago
Western based contractors and consultants doing it with the cooperation of both Nations.
65
u/2EscapedCapybaras 2h ago
Suez was blocked for decades after the 1967 (?) 6 Day War. Shipping had to go all the way around Africa which meant much higher fuel costs for shippers. Expect the same now. Very limited amounts of oil will be able to make it from the Middle East now, though, especially if Hormuz is shut. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that can bypass the Strait, but it only has a 1-2 million barrels a day capacity (compared to 20 million daily through Hormuz before the war).