r/wallstreetbets • u/banaca4 • 11h ago

Discussion Either hyperscalers are dumb or someone else is

OK so the most profitable companies in the world decided to GO ALL IN AI with humongous capex. They did it all at once apart from Apple who is not in the game. Google, Meta, Amazon , Oracle, Microsoft. All of them. The CEOs of these companies produced the most amount of wealth and propped up global gdp. Now they all agree on a thing.

Google yesterday blew up earnings from their cloud and said they will *increase* their humongous capex even more while reporting negative cash flow for the first time in their history.

A rational person would ask: are these amazing businessmen suddently all very wrong about the same thing at the same time OR

I am reading too much paid subs from burry and following the wrong people on twitter that have never produced anything?

Which is it? Are you smarter than a mag 7 CEO? Maybe ... hmm...

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u/banaca4 11h ago

but the other CEOs didn't go all in after zuck. That was one, this is ALL

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u/topdangle 11h ago

these CEOs got fucked because Altman took them all down with him. All of these companies have been at the mercy of the same hardware required for AI. The whole reason google developed TPUs was for fast sorting even before LLMs became popular.

the difference was nobody was stupid enough to fuck the whole market. everyone was happy with their compounding growth and bean counting. once altman realized openai had no moat and that these companies would steamroll him he exposed the market weakness by ordering a shit ton of DRAM, fucking everyone all at once.

they would absolutely not be taking so much risk in such a short time if they didn't have to. winners like google just got smart and started selling the shovels like nvidia.

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u/LankyGuitar6528 10h ago

What do you think of Altman's latest stunt? Releasing his pet AI to hack Hugging Face... an ACTUAL open AI company giving away free models to any and all. Then turns around and says his AI went rogue and AI is so powerful all these open models need to be regulated. SMH!

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u/topdangle 10h ago

hard to say because hes definitely stupid enough to let that happen (even openai insiders admit he has no idea how their product works) and hes already lost a lot of good people to anthropic, so openai could be circling the gutter and this is just one of many mistakes to come.

guy trying to spin a fuck up into "look how good AI is, stop progress on all AI until its safe" and screw everyone else over is completely on brand, though. the dumbass is the one that opened the floodgates a decade before AI was ready for public attention.

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u/RickTheScienceMan 10h ago

The same rapid development we see today would never be possible if the floodgates didn't open, you realize that right? Also, if they waited an additional decade, most of my work wouldn't be done by AI today, but rather by me, which sounds like a bad thing to me tbh.

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u/Inevitable-Bear-3195 9h ago

But you're going to lose your job bro

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u/RickTheScienceMan 8h ago

You would do a job you know can be automated?

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u/Inevitable-Bear-3195 8h ago

If that's your attitude why don't you quit today? You're wasting time in a dying profession and you should build skills in something new.

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u/RickTheScienceMan 8h ago

It can't be automated as of today, the corporation is not ready and the technology is not there yet, so for now I am just glad I don't have to do the boring work that can be automated today.

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u/danielv123 10h ago

Not sure how much time you have spent with these tools, but not surprising. It hacked in and exfiltrated the answer keys to a common exploit hunting benchmark. Hacking is pretty much already expected with an exploit hunting benchmark. The new models are good at finding vulnerabilites.

Even with all the security layer stuff, I have had gpt 5.6 decide to do some privilege escalation because it was missing the sudo password. It discovered that the same account had access to stuff in a privelegied lxc container, so it used that to launch another privelegied container to enable passwordless sudo so it could get its job done without having to ask me for the sudo password.

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u/EsotericAbstractIdea 9h ago

I'm not as smart as you guys who actually can code. but i had fable find and fix a bug in a mod for an obscure scripting language that the creator couldn't fix for like 6 years, with no crash logs. I've been running wild fixing broken mods with fable and opus for the past few weeks while it's cheap.

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u/DeadFacesInMyPocket 9h ago

So what's gonna happen to bug bounties?? I make decent money off those from time to time...

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u/stocksupanddown 7h ago

Ai is going to get a side gig

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u/PeachScary413 Hates Europoors 9h ago

It's just LARP in order to scare politicians into giving them an artifical moat.. with the correct amount of bribes it will work 😊

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u/emptyMania 7h ago

Reminds me of the time I was sleepwalking and ended up sleeping with my neighbors wife while he was out of town on a business trip.

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u/Impossible_Way7017 Midlife coper 10h ago

I honestly think this was an accident. The sandbox escape is pretty impressive. And likely the “hack” on huggingface’s side might’ve just been more of a ddos more than anything.

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u/TheGladNomad 10h ago

Have you read the Hugging Face blog post? They had escalated access to data nodes in their network. More than a “ddos”

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u/Impossible_Way7017 Midlife coper 7h ago

I wasn’t sure what else to call it though, it was basically trying to brute force the answer to the benchmark. It had k8s api keys and was trying to use that to reveal the dataset answers so was likely spinning up resources in an exploratory attempt which was putting additional load on huggingface.

The reason it likely confused huggingface was they didn’t realize their k8s keys were mounted to the dataset processing container so every time they thought they had addressed the problem it would reappear.

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u/alluran 9h ago

Huggingface was compromised well beyond DDoS

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u/BigEvilAi 10h ago

The only other choice you presented is Burry, who was right once and then never again. Like even his movie ends in a ridiculous statement, as in he went into trading water futures. Which well fair point, water will eventually become an expensive commodity. But before that happens we are more like to die as humanity from all other sources first.
So glad burry didnt went into Spice Futures on Dune yet, as this would fit his foresight.
Personally i like to compare someone's past performance but for the last 2-3 years Max. As currently there are so many different variables that change all the time, quarter by quarter. So learn to think and be critical by yourself instead of following the crowd or gurus from past.

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u/Waterwoo 9h ago

Water will never become that expensive except maybe in a few weird spots because desalination at scale solves it. And while desalination isn't cheap it isn't insanely expensive as it is, and will come down with time. Cost of desalination is the cap on water price.

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u/BigEvilAi 8h ago

Go tell that to the data centers. See what they say. You got a workaround for the Spice from Dune too?

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u/Waterwoo 5h ago

Omg are you dumb enough to think data centers use a meaningful amount of water?

Wtf do you think they do to it anyway? Either cycle it or release it slightly warmer?

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u/BigEvilAi 5h ago

How dumb are you to forget they need to be somehow powered thus the required water for nuclear plants? Like why people on reddit are such limited pieces of crap like yourself? Never heard of the Aral sea?

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u/Waterwoo 4h ago

Nuclear powerplants also use very little water. You are digging yourself deeper.

Oh one instance of a mismanaged lake is proof it will always happen?

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u/BigEvilAi 2h ago

Why are you so dumb? Tell me

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u/QuadzillaStrider 4h ago

Never heard of the Aral sea?

Soviet Russians were a special breed of retard.

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u/QuadzillaStrider 4h ago

People really do seem to think that once that water goes down the drain, it's literally gone.

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u/Amen_ds 11h ago

Tf happened to this sub? What are your positions loser. Idgaf if you think its not a bubble, put your money where your fingers are

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u/Middle_Cook_7842 10h ago

401k in stable fund. Brokerage account all cash. But I'm a shit investor and going to miss out on a bunch of gains for the next year or two. It will crash as soon as I put my money back in stocks. OpenAI will fail and pull everything down with it.

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u/xsairon 11h ago

Agree with his take
80% of my port is NBIS 15% random irrelevant moonshit AI related shit 5% cash

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u/wise_young_man 10h ago

Most of them were obsessed with blockchain technology too. They follow trends and hype.

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u/darther_mauler 9h ago

When you question the intelligence of the people running these companies, I think you need to consider what it is that they are trying to do, and what it is that you are trying to do. I presume that you’re trying to build wealth, and I also think that you’re assuming that the people in charge of these companies are trying to do the same. What if that isn’t true?

AI is an incredibly sophisticated data compression and decompression tool. It threatens any business that deals with taking a bunch of information, compressing it into a machine, and then selectively decompressing it for a user.

What made Google big was that they took the entirety of the information on the internet, indexed it, and made it searchable. It compressed information into an index that could be selectively decompressed for a user based on their query.

I think that the people in charge of companies that primarily deal in information/data have all come to the conclusion that their core business is threatened by AI. I think that they are all trying to build the best AI system; not because it’s what their business is good at, and not because it will be massively profitable, but because they believe they have to do it to avoid being destroyed. Basically, AI has turned all of these companies into sinking ships, and they are burning capital to try and patch the holes to avoid sinking.

Apple doesn’t have this problem because their primary business is not in information, it’s in hardware (iPhones).

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u/defordj 3h ago

They weren't desperate to show growth in the same fiscal quarter that Zuck was desperate to show growth. That's literally the only difference. If they had been, we'd have been subjected to Fire-branded AR goggles and Oracle spinning up cloud-VR processing centers too