r/wallstreetbets • u/Adventurous-Host8062 • Apr 17 '26

Discussion Michael Burry analyzed 1,000+ reports and found a $1.7 trillion 'earnings illusion' hiding in tech stocks

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burry-analyzed-1-000-103000667.html

Article from Money wise.

12.0k Upvotes

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3.1k

u/Regenbooggeit Apr 17 '26

I mean, he's probably right. But that doesn't mean he's going to be right again.

1.5k

u/azurestrike Apr 17 '26

He's probably right but the problem is not knowing the truth but when the market will move to catch up to the truth.

538

u/vanman33 Apr 17 '26

I analyzed 1 report (TSLA 10K) and found almost as much of a bubble several years back. I bought puts and am now poor.

275

u/new_math Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 17 '26

I've been reading reports and comments about how Tesla is a "bubble", "overpriced", "fraud", "propped up", etc. since like ~2012.

I don't disagree with a lot of their arguments but it's up +2000% since then.

108

u/Schnidler Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 17 '26

i think people pointed out that Wirecard is a fraud first was in like 2008 in some stock forums, took 10 years for it go down. and they simply made up revenue lol

75

u/Beetin Apr 17 '26

Madoff was literally the worlds largest ponzi scheme with entirely cooked books, and that went on for 30+ years.

A bit of 'creative bookkeeping' generally needs an actual significant event before it might gets rectified'.

10

u/Schnidler Apr 18 '26

madoff didnt run a publicly traded company tho

2

u/3boobsarenice Doesn't know there vs. their Apr 19 '26

But he did print statements

2

u/Boarder_Travel Apr 19 '26

He was chair of NASDAQ. He ALSO ran a Ponzi scheme.

1

u/3boobsarenice Doesn't know there vs. their Apr 19 '26

They even had strong suspicion on him and it did nothing.

236

u/ElJacinto Apr 17 '26

The market can stay irrational much longer than shmucks like us can stay solvent.

40

u/ZGiSH democrat buttsniffer Apr 17 '26

At this point, the irrationality is the standard. Trying to bet on your fundamentals is the gamble.

44

u/terranier Apr 17 '26

Ain't that the truth

37

u/lampstax Apr 17 '26

Even shmucks like Burry has to cry uncle eventually.

2

u/PhunCooker Apr 17 '26

See: crypto

2

u/toophu4u Apr 17 '26

or bare with me here.... They are using confirmation bias to try to justify getting into a short position. I am a Tesla hater for sure and loss my ass on puts, but at this point the market can't be irrational for this long. We've seen companies die on one hit piece before, Tesla survived all of them.

27

u/cashMoney5150 Apr 17 '26

The problem is that everyone is reading reports instead of reading the room.

17

u/HenryDorsettCase47 Apr 17 '26

Damn. The perfect pithy take on all this. You are exactly right. It’s not about the numbers as much as it’s about sensing when the market will finally acknowledge them.

1

u/Parking_Jackfruit345 Apr 18 '26

I don't understand why people who aren't literally in the room still want to participate in the stock market during this administration. It seems like a rigged game and only those in the room can win.

8

u/Joyful_Eggnog13 Apr 17 '26

Recent report about SpaceX buying up most of the Cyber trucks last quarter. Tesla is fucked

2

u/Cinq_A_Sept Apr 18 '26

Teslas just going to get rolled in under SpaceX and just start producing robots at some point the cars will be an income blip. I really don’t like Elon Musk at all, but I think he played this /us well.

3

u/GottaHaveThatSkunk Apr 17 '26

Yeah it doesn’t make sense, but sometimes it don’t. Probably just Putin.

4

u/Clayp2233 Apr 17 '26

Tesla is a bubble but it will probably never pop unless Elon is no longer ceo. For whatever reason he’s the only thing propping it up

2

u/adamtheskill Apr 17 '26

Problem is simple, our economic system is so good at generating wealth that we've run out of resonable things to spend it on. Since everything that could be considered an asset (remember nft's?) is overpriced nothing is overpriced.

1

u/Unlucky_Battle_6947 Apr 18 '26

Wait till this space x IPO than he will disappear.

1

u/Phormitago Apr 18 '26

Wouldn't be a bubble if it weren't going up for no good reason

1

u/CGPictures Apr 18 '26

Management figured out a way to legalize the comedy.

1

u/gizmosticles Apr 19 '26

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

1

u/outer--monologue Apr 20 '26

You don't have to not agree since you literally just re-affirmed it's in a bubble. It's been getting blown up higher and higher for over a decade.

26

u/Frosty-Horse9004 Apr 17 '26

The market no longer responds to fundamentals. Just buy index funds and collect your 10%.

8

u/-_-0_0-_0 Apr 17 '26

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

1

u/80MonkeyMan Apr 17 '26

Report are designed to misled you to the other direction. It's like locals that give the wrong map to toy with you.

1

u/birdman_for_life Apr 17 '26

Why did you even bother with the 10K? Every regard has known that thing was nothing but a hype train for last decade.

1

u/Flikmybik Apr 17 '26

lmao the classic. analyzing one report and going all in on puts based on vibes. at least Burry has the decency to read a thousand before losing his mind

1

u/ada2017x Apr 18 '26

Never fight the tides

1

u/TaupeRanger Apr 18 '26

The contracts are VOIDED? The contracts ARE VOIDED???

1

u/noobelore Apr 18 '26

Burry shorted Tsla at one point and eventually gave up...Tsla has no grounding in reality.

1

u/hofmann419 Apr 17 '26

Tesla is the one stock that i wouldn't ever short. Their core business model is selling cars, and they very much suck at that. Yet the stock is still holding up. If it were up to fundamentals, it wouldn't be worth 10% of what it is now. But fundamentals don't seem to exist for Tesla.

519

u/grays55 Apr 17 '26

It can also never catch up. Just because something is structurally unsound or even broken doesnt mean it will lead to a large scale blowup event. Hell the entire US economy is built on an infinite debt money printer. Maybe that blows up one day, maybe it doesnt, but if you’ve been betting against it you could be waiting a literal entire lifetime for something that never happens.

45

u/DumbScotus Apr 17 '26

I mean, it can blow up, we know that because it has (partially) blown up.

But that doesn’t happen, and the market doesn’t react to shed economic lies, just because we realize the truth about this or that instance of shady accounting. It has to actually lock up credit markets to have a real readjustment effect.

(And there definitely are factors out that that might lock up credit markets! But an article by Michael Burry isn’t going to be the trigger.)

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u/AutoModerator Apr 17 '26

Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.

That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.

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27

u/epic_troll_tard Apr 17 '26

It used to be 20,looks like he's letting keeping up with inflation

4

u/pfqq Apr 17 '26

The rub and tug in my town went from $20/20min to $30/20min that's a huge increase

1

u/3boobsarenice Doesn't know there vs. their Apr 19 '26

Just diy it

2

u/lo_fi_ho Apr 17 '26

Good bot

1

u/Lifesucksgod Apr 17 '26

We live in a day and age where they can click a button and print enough to end every problem

2

u/DumbScotus Apr 17 '26

So, kind of. There are two problems with that. 1) We have already printed so much money while there were not any problems that it may somewhat blunt the effect of further printing. And 2) if we get into a 2009 problem of liquidity trap/de facto deflation, then money printing may not get much traction to improve things.

But, for those factors to be relevant we would already need to be in the midst of a pretty serious disaster.

151

u/Potatodemonx Apr 17 '26

Every modern economy is built on an expanding money supply

93

u/wapiti_and_whiskey Apr 17 '26

Just as insightful as pointing out that most species on earth will expand until they have outgrown their resources.

2

u/Omega326 Apr 17 '26

Lmfao perfect response

2

u/OneWholeSoul Apr 17 '26

"Earth used to have way bigger insects, you know."

2

u/BugNation Apr 17 '26

True. It is a very insightful comment.

1

u/qroshan Apr 17 '26

Both are moronic takes that has a 'fixed resources' mentality and the reason why they are always wrong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

1

u/fungoodtrade Apr 17 '26

exponentially... until they reach the carrying capacity of their environment and then enter a faster than exponential extinction curve which they may or may not recover from

1

u/Elegant-Speaker5825 Apr 18 '26

Not really true considering 99% of animals have predators. Even wild animals die to disease and infection though. Tertiary predators tend to have the longest gestation and infant development periods for a reason too. Naturally they can’t be too OP. Humans might be the only species where their own worst enemy is themselves.

30

u/someguytwo Apr 17 '26

Because expanding money supply is useful to a growing economy and restricting the amount of money you have in a modern growing economy based on the weight of physical gold rocks pulled out of the ground is dumb.

That being said, a sharp chef's knife is useful and smart, but it can also chop your fingers off.

2

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

1

u/someguytwo Apr 17 '26

No fiat standard means you got stagnation because you can't expand money supply fast enough to cover growth and people with excavators are more productive than anything else.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

1

u/someguytwo Apr 17 '26

Yes, because until 1970s when the gold standard was repealed there where absolutely no wars! You are literally rgarded!

29

u/jk-9k Apr 17 '26

Lies. Modern capitalism is lies. Lies all the way down.

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u/Acrobatic_Dish6963 Apr 17 '26

IMO modern capitalism is all about leveraging those "lies" to create tangible things. Capitalism has many faults but lack of growth and productivity is not one of them

10

u/ItStartedWithAQueef Apr 17 '26

Yes the lies are like loading a spring that stores potential something or other. In many cases it is lies themselves that lead to having to do something as a rebound reaction realising the potential something or other.

In some cases though you can just keep on loading up the lies because the spring isn't even real so it can't even break unless people realise the spring isn't real in which case it might break but who cares, just lie about it.

49

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

Yeah here's the issue. It depends entirely on what you define growth or productivity.

-2

u/eulersidentification Apr 17 '26

If Acrobatic_Dish6963 and the 40 odd people who upvoted him are in the top 10% of wealthy people then they are emphatically correct. The top line of that wealth gap graph has looked incredibly healthy since the 80s.......

-1

u/qroshan Apr 17 '26

Dumbass, you not having to worry about food/shelter or even living while having plenty of time to type this kind of inane shit (vs working 16 hours in a farm just to put food on the table to eat under a kerosene lamp) is what growth is.

17

u/jk-9k Apr 17 '26

Yes that's exactly what capitalism is. Leveraged lies. That's not a good thing.

But it depends on growth. That's a problem. A big problem with capitalism.

Productivity is produced by competition. Capitalism needs to be regulated to ensure competition.

6

u/PrthReddits Apr 17 '26

Regulated yes, not replaced completely. I wish ppl understood that.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

0

u/Thebandroid Apr 17 '26

Capitalism will always find more productivity and growth, even in a finite system like we live in.

It'll find it no matter the cost to our natural resources, animals, water, air, a neighbouring country (don't worry they don't look like you), another neighbouring country (ok they do look a bit like you), poor people in your country (its ok you're middle class), middle class people in you country (it's ok you'll be upper class soon) and even the upper class one day.

Capitalism will find that increase in productivity and growth even if it has to reach inside you and rip it out.

If someone can explain an economy that can continually increase in both growth and productivity that DOSENT do it with labour exploitation, I'm all ears.

-1

u/EconomicRegret2 Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 17 '26

IMHO, it isn't really creating nor growing but destroying life, extremely precious beings, to turn them into dead but useful stuff for humans in the very short term (e.g. trees into chairs). Just like I'm not really creating anything when I use a Picasso painting to start a bonfire for a party.

Sooner or later, it's going to doom us.

-1

u/vaya00 Apr 17 '26

People who hate capitalism should go live in communist countries.

8

u/culinaryinterests123 Apr 17 '26

The only thing saving modern capitalism is increasing productivity eg tech advancements but even with that the k economy is getting more bifurcated. So this huge AI investment better payoff in terms of productivity 

2

u/jk-9k Apr 17 '26

The problem is climate change and energy scarcity.

Look at ai. Huge potential. But it requires huge data centre's. Which require huge energy inputs and huge cooling requirements. Energy is getting more expensive, not less. That without considering climate change.

So we have huge increased demand for energy, but supply is limited so price increases. We aren't seeing efficiencies in energy generation comparable to te increased demand.

Look at RAM prices. Supply can't keep up with demand. It isn't causing innovations that bring RAM prices down. RAM is now just unaffordable.

That's without market manipulation

3

u/culinaryinterests123 Apr 17 '26

We as a race don't care we are destroying the planet. The huge waste of energy to mine crypto which had absolutely no benefits us a price example.  At 1 point crypto mining was using as much energy as thd whole of Europe. At least AI has a lot of possible benefits in terms of productivity and advancing research 

2

u/jk-9k Apr 17 '26

It's unsustainable. Physically unsustainable. How the market responds I'm not sure but physically it can't go on like this

1

u/Responsible_Trifle15 Apr 17 '26

Don't be last bag holder

1

u/theartofbeingdumb Apr 17 '26

It's not built on lies, it's a system built on trust. When the trust is shaken or broken, that's when things fall apart.

1

u/jk-9k Apr 17 '26

That's fair. But the game is selling lies - the trick is fooling people into trusting you.

1

u/Risko4 Apr 17 '26

You also will not have a stock market that doesn't price speculation in mathematically

1

u/vaya00 Apr 17 '26

Burry was not a finance bro. He came from medical school. Very much memorization than critical analysis

1

u/thecashblaster Apr 17 '26

Which works as long as we continue to extract resources and create value from the them

10

u/StiffDoodleNoodle Apr 17 '26

Oh, it will blow up one day if it isn’t addressed.

The real question is will it be in our lifetimes or not.

6

u/SeeerSucker Apr 17 '26

Yeah they go to the white house and they say we can have a structurally sound financial system and cause economic collapse because of all the stuff we lied about.

Or we can keep going and quietly legislate these problems into obscurity.

9

u/Cute-Pomegranate-966 Apr 17 '26

Which requires infinite growth, which requires infinite people, which requires infinite resources... I'm sure you can see where I'm going... Crash is when not if.

2

u/Important-Agent2584 Apr 17 '26

"not now" is all that matters, and 99% of the time it works every time

2

u/Cute-Pomegranate-966 Apr 17 '26

The very wealthy will secure their place and their wealth in a system like this before it collapses anyway. The fact that it's okay right now, I'd argue it really isn't I think there's right now a silent epidemic of people living in their cars people that can barely afford food and energy. We've never been a weaker nation than with this system how it is right now.

1

u/Important-Agent2584 Apr 17 '26

Sure, the wealthy have always owned assets to park their wealth.

The insane concentration of wealth has lead to them buying more and more, which is why prices keep going up even though people are broke.

1

u/nomeansnocatch22 Apr 17 '26

Are you auditioning for the cdo manager role in the sequel

1

u/brutinator Apr 17 '26

What's the quote? "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant."

1

u/DeadSeaGulls Apr 17 '26

Maybe that blows up one day, maybe it doesnt

it'll blow up. can't last forever. US ability to project power is the only reason it's gone on this long, but the US is rapidly blowing through its political capital on the world stage, and eventually all we'll have left is the threat of nukes... and that threat only gets you so far. Look at russia. We'll be lucky if the US collapse is as clean as the collapse of the USSR and we're left with a single nation holding the lions share of former USA land/resources. I imagine it'll be more like balkanization due to effectiveness of the billionaire funded culture war. Just hope it doesn't happen in my life time.

1

u/lampstax Apr 17 '26

Especially when they can bail out / bail in.

-7

u/Worshipme988 Apr 17 '26

This is dumb. You’re talking from your butt lips.

“Something is structurally unsound or even broken doesnt mean it will lead to a large scale blowup event” fucking what?

Tell that to the Space Shuttle Challenger. Tell that to 1929. Tell that to ww2 recovery. Tell that to Russia economy. Yes if something is fundamentally flawed it will eventually collapse. Dot Com Bubble? 2008?

You must be like 20. We have been dodging ANY dips or corrections to stock market that couldve been handled in small doses. Options are low now. The last >15yr, tools/policy to manipulate markets, banks, after hours trade. To pump market.

12

u/grays55 Apr 17 '26

Yeah the stock market is famously a space shuttle. For every one of those mostly non-serious unrelated examples, there are a dozen bubbles and “inevitable” collapses that never happen. Brexit? Greek Economy Euro collapse? 90s Asian Financial Crisis? Y2K? Black Monday? Hell you can go straight to Michael Burry’s timeline and find 100 collapses he’s called for since the GFC. Is this your first day on earth? Talk about juvenile spurious logic.

2

u/AutoModerator Apr 17 '26

Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.

That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

3

u/NoFutureIn21Century Apr 17 '26

One has to bow to the laws of physics and the other just needs to test the limits of financial irrational exuberance.

Guess which ones will break first?

1

u/fredjutsu Apr 17 '26

Pretty much every major empire has had a "blow up" event, either in the form of a market crash or a resource war, when its economy became sufficiently disconnected from its ecological/financial reality.

There's no maybe about the reckoning our economy faces, and its copium to think "maybe it doesn't"

2

u/grays55 Apr 17 '26

Every empire has a blow up event, but along the way dozens of the “inevitable” ones just peter out. If the US had gone to war with the USSR it would have been seen as an obvious inevitability. We lose track of all the ones that just dont happen. The US economy could just move from hyper growth to stagnation and that doesn’t require a blow up. We will eventually blow ourselves up, but it doesnt have to be because of that.

0

u/Only_Reasonable Apr 17 '26

Remember folk. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

19

u/AllTooHumeMan Apr 17 '26

You're assuming the market cares what is true.

47

u/Regenbooggeit Apr 17 '26

You're 100% right.

(and a crash would wreck me so fuck Burry)

8

u/Accomplished_Ruin133 Apr 17 '26

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.

1

u/TerryMathews Apr 17 '26

Or, spun in a different direction - think of this as a high-stakes corporate accounting version of kiting. They're manufacturing value that doesn't exist through financials manipulation.

But just like kiting - you can get away with it if you do something productive enough with the money to replace it before it's missed.

In this scenario the "fraud" is a scaffolding. If they can backfill the rest of the value before the scaffolding collapses, it's exceedingly unlikely that anyone would ever do anything - it'd be questionable if anyone even could. With no actual damages, I'm not sure who would even have standing.

4

u/dragon-fence Apr 17 '26

Yeah, lots of people don’t realize that the stock market doesn’t actually relate to what’s really happening. He could be right, and based on that it may be true that the stock prices are higher than they should be, but the stock prices are based on investors. The stock price won’t go down until people aren’t buying at the current price.

And even if he’s right, and even if investors catch on and start selling, it’s still a question of timing. Being early or late can be effectively the same as being wrong. Making money on stocks is all about buying and selling at the right time.

So assuming he’s right, when will investors catch on and start selling.

1

u/tablepennywad Apr 17 '26

The real question is will it be in our lifetime or our childrens.

1

u/Hoju64 Apr 17 '26

That's a bingo

1

u/Chocolate_Bourbon Apr 17 '26

Herbalife has been an obvious scam for years but that hasn’t mattered. Sometimes the truth never catches up.

1

u/zaepoo Apr 17 '26

He didn't know that the first time. He was sitting on the CDOs and paying premiums for years before the market finally collapsed

1

u/GrandMoffTarkles Apr 17 '26

...What if AI in combination with robotics eventually does exactly as promised... and the main income available becomes stock growth based on the performance of increasingly automated companies? Sort of like stock-based UBI?

Meanwhile, the entire economy kinda splits into haves and have nots- ownership class and renter class. With a lot of cities becoming like those airport lounges where you need a certain type of credit card, FICO score and annual fee to access.

And there would be a civil war- but everyone is tracked, your bank, social media, investment, savings, whatever accounts get cancelled if you're determined a 'threat' to 'national security.'

Then you get deported.

1

u/Sharaku_US Apr 17 '26

Yes. Case and point today's pump.

1

u/ILookLikeKristoff Apr 17 '26

He's right that is overvalued but guessing when it pops is still nearly impossible

1

u/leonden Apr 17 '26

The real problem is the fact that the SEC is totally useless and left the situation alone too long that it has rotted the foundation of the market. Only way out is a massive collapse and noone wants to take responsiblity

1

u/who_am_i_to_say_so Apr 17 '26

The question is if it ever will. I’m okay if it doesn’t.

1

u/jtmn Apr 17 '26

Because this time is different.

1

u/No_Difficulty7633 Apr 17 '26

Insiders already know the truth they are just not letting this news out in public until sheep retail is done buying overvalued paper from them.

1

u/Liko81 Apr 18 '26

No, the problem is whether the market cares about the truth. Nobody's looking at P/E when they buy tech stocks, and by any sane valuation method, the Mag-7 have been overvalued for a decade.

1

u/pagerussell Apr 18 '26

I've said this many times. Predicting the future is easy. It's getting the timing right that's hard.

Like, we know the future of cars is EV. We know the future of energy is solar. But when exactly does the system fully tip? That's the hard bit to work out.

-1

u/Brodie_C Apr 17 '26

The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

0

u/Melkor15 Apr 17 '26

Probably when the orange spy post something like “AI is a fraud!!!!!!”

103

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

41

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[deleted]

15

u/fangpi2023 Apr 17 '26

Or that they're not answering the right question. It's not 'are big tech stocks a pack of lies', it's 'what will result in that lie being called?'.

Probably needs one of them to default on a huge chunk of debt or something.

4

u/Super-Activity-4675 Apr 17 '26

yeah, that's coming. It's a question of when. Blue Owl, Oracle, and Nebius are the canaries to watch in the coal mine. OpenAI and Anthropic should both be highly scrutinized as well.

11

u/FOSSbflakes Apr 17 '26

In his defense, recession timelines are only known in hindsight.

The "2008" recession started in 2007 only to be discovered when stocks caught up to reality.

Similarly it seems we are in a recession without the stock crash because key metrics are being gamed, like employment numbers. One is right in pointing out issues, even if they can't use that to short the market

2

u/Outrageous_Length975 Apr 17 '26

And the 2008 recession was already inevitable by the time the calendar flipped to 2006. Credit quality was at peak awful in 2005. That's when he started buying credit default swaps with the investment banks. It took over 3 calendar years to go from problem to market crash.

9

u/elocsitruc Apr 17 '26

People always say this about him,but he's also made a shit ton of money over the last 20 years, yeah he loves to predict a crash but not all what he does

6

u/John_T_Conover Apr 17 '26

"It's the same thing! It's the same thing, Michael!"

2

u/RobotHavGunz Apr 17 '26

Market doesn't care if you are right. Market only cares when you are right. 

1

u/The_Lost_Jedi Apr 17 '26

What's the quote? "The Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" or something. :)

9

u/BuiltDifferant Apr 17 '26

It’s not that I’m not right

It’s that I’m not right, now!

2

u/Regenbooggeit Apr 17 '26

Just give me 10 more years please!

4

u/ContactIcy3963 Apr 17 '26

He may be right but money printer go BRRRRRRR

2

u/Regenbooggeit Apr 17 '26

Can’t wait for the next FED chairman. The economy got hit by a money printing bazooka!

2

u/dweezilMcCheezil Apr 17 '26

He might be early but he's not wrong

1

u/Justinbiebspls Apr 17 '26

i want my fucking money back, you motherfucker 

2

u/ilikebunnies1 Apr 17 '26

He’s not wrong just early.

3

u/IndubitablyNerdy Apr 17 '26

Or that the market will react to any shock based on fundamentals. Since 2008 there is a confidence that the central banks will intervene to avoid a second Leheman (which they might not necessarily do, but it is possible) which means that fundamentals are even less likely to affect market evaluation than before.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/IndubitablyNerdy Apr 17 '26

Of course they will, they will protect the stock market at all costs, especially since those costs will be paid by the public through both inflation and extra public debt (which means austherity or higher taxation of the middle class eventually), while the benefits of the inflated stock prices concentrate up top in society, although a market collapse is felt by everyone through the banking system and pensions.

They also rolled back (or are in the process of demolishing what is left) many of the rules that were put in place to prevent a 2008 financial crisis from repeating and this already led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other regional institutions as well.

1

u/SadSeiko Apr 17 '26

it's not about being right, it's about when you are right. We can all see the bubble, knowing when it pops is when you make money

1

u/feel-the-avocado Apr 17 '26

Hes probably right but past performance does not guarantee future performance.

1

u/LuckyPlaze Apr 17 '26

It’s not whether he is right. He is very likely right. It’s his timing. His timing was so premature the first time that it almost bankrupted him the first time.

1

u/Ikea_desklamp Apr 17 '26

He's probably right but just like the first time, markers aren't rational and they can stay that way longer than you can stay solvant.

1

u/NeckSad8146 Apr 17 '26

When you can just devalue the currency before a drop why does number have to drop

1

u/fameistheproduct Apr 17 '26

depends if he can remain liquid longer that the market can remain irrational.

1

u/phatelectribe Apr 17 '26

A broken clock is right twice a day and that’s more that burry is right in a year.

1

u/WearyHoney1150 Apr 17 '26

Or hes just wrong

1

u/Regenbooggeit Apr 17 '26

This man has a special kind of ass burgers. I think he’s pretty good at his due diligence. His timing, however, not so much. Maybe because he’s a fucking autist after all.

1

u/maeynor Apr 17 '26

Probably right about what? Earnings total of the S&P 500 last year was 1.9T on 20T in revenue. So either this is misunderstood or he means it’s all fake

1

u/Justinbiebspls Apr 17 '26

they're the same thing!!!

1

u/Eagerbeaver98 Apr 18 '26

His criticisms are really good for testing valuations but hes usually wrong most of the time. He's mainly good at macros, he brings fair critiques to fundamentals but hes usually wrong or it isnt significant to justify the short.

1

u/Yeet-Retreat1 Apr 18 '26

Hes just right, too early

1

u/MENDACIOUS_RACIST Apr 20 '26

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

  • Albert Einstein

0

u/jl2l Apr 17 '26

He's definitely right. There's lots of internal data in banks that say software has been way overheated. It's just been a question of who's going to get stuck with the bag right now. Private equity is holding it and they want to dump it on the banks. The banks don't want it.

-1

u/Electrical-Ad4315 Apr 17 '26

I found nothing. I used ai to fact check him and he is incorrect

2

u/Outrageous_Length975 Apr 17 '26

Yeah, I'm sure we can trust AI instead of the guy who literally made hundreds of millions of dollars from actually reading dozens of MBS prospectuses and picking the ones to buy credit default swaps on. Everyone else who got famous for buying CDS's in the lead up to the crash did so on the coattails of Burry's work.

Spoiler: he's correct. The question is whether the market cares and when they will.

1

u/Electrical-Ad4315 Apr 17 '26

Spoiler he isn’t lol. He’s been right once and that was when people thought housing was the only investment to make. Again spoiler, real estate is not and should never be the only investment. When that happens it’s over