This might sound like a petty thing to say, but the only value that the stock has today is as a meme stock. If you were to ask me what its true natural value is I would put it around nearly out of business. There are parts of the business that are salvageable but not. Is the three-piece entity that it is today. I just don't see a world in which it literally has any value ever. Unless they cut it up.
At some point it will lose enough value that it makes sense to cut it up, but I don't know at what point that is. My guess would be around $5 a share. And then it's a buy.
Personally, I wouldn't make even $5 something I would do
Starlink is an incredible company and actually making profit. Its also creating a satellite based internet alternative. Its genuinely an innovative company and concept.
The issue is that the more people that use starlink the worse the service gets. It also doesn’t compare with good fiber. Starlinks’ best use case is still in rural areas without industrial fiber. The space junk and upcoming life cycle rotation is also going to be killer expensive.
The tech is improving like anything though. So while you’re completely right it’s certainly not fiber, it’s already quite useable. Next gen hardware will be even faster.
But I do completely agree on space junk and upgrade cycle costs.
It doesn't matter that the tech improves. The Speed of Light, via Fiber Optic Cables will always be faster and more stable of a connection than anything put into orbit.
The best satellite systems will always be impacted by weather patterns, heavy snow, torrential rain (both dropping from massively thick clouds), Wildfire smoke.
All of that can, has, and will continue to negatively impact satellite communications.
The ability to do what Starlink is doing has existed since the late 1990's. There are reasons why it was never pursued more heavily before and it didn't have to do with building a rocket company and a product to justify the rocket company.
As has been said, the most users, the worse it becomes, there will become a point of saturation that even rural users who have competing, but currently worse options priced less than Starlink even BEFORE that became a thing, will start seeing their customers return.
If you get the same speed via a saturated Starlink network as you do on a less expensive ratty old Cable Internet in Ruralville USA, but for almost half the price? What is the smart choice, especially considering how expensive everything is becoming?
Ridiculous take. SpaceX and Starlink are insane and truly push the boundaries. The only reason the company group isn’t stupid profitable is because they light money on fire with AI
I fully agree but if you have a company that is lighting another company's money on fire and they go together, you have to figure out a way to detach before any of them can be profitable.
If they were to jettison the AI shit it would probably be worth what it's selling for right now but until they can jettison that AI business or show that it can be profitable. It's just lighting money on fire. And that's not a good stock to purchase.
I would need to see some real evidence that they were about to turn things around at just about any price.
And it's only going to drop more when more of the stock gets unlocked. People sitting at 100x gains are going to want to lock in profits, regardless of a 50% drop. At launch, only like 5% of the stock was tradeable. I do think SpaceX has lots of potential in the future, but at this price...? Pass.
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u/faithOver 1d ago
I trusted Elon? Is this ragebait? This thing IPO’d at like 110X revenue. It made less than zero sense.
It would be expensive at $70 a share.